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Pilotui's YM Intra-day Journal
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Pilotui's YM Intra-day Journal

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Oklahoma City OK/USA
 
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Platform: NT7
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Posts: 129 since Apr 2012
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Been looking

Looking at my mistakes today...sucks because yesterday I was killing it. But then again, yesterday it was swinging all over...today it's just churning up.

I wish I had the balls to trade CL...man, it's got some sweet moves, but $10/t and it costs me $1,500 in margin vs $500 for ES or YM.

Oh well, I'm done for the day -$150 ish.

I will be back Monday. "I'll be better tomorrow, because of today"






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  #12 (permalink)
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This day was hard to play with Cyprus in the neck...
Most of the day we were sitting in the range from 410 to 450.
You took the short trades in the middle or lower range.

IMO we had no big chance for a good short, as we had yesterday a Cyprus fear day, and today they had to deliver or at least not to disappoint. That's why I took the DB in the afternoon, thinking they would buy the market, as you can expect a Cyprus deal before the market will open on Monday. But I was out with 10 ticks as it was loosing steam, and so I missed the final move.

I think your idea to post charts with entry/stop/target and to use a journal is a good thing.

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  #13 (permalink)
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terratec View Post
This day was hard to play with Cyprus in the neck...
Most of the day we were sitting in the range from 410 to 450.
You took the short trades in the middle or lower range.

IMO we had no big chance for a good short, as we had yesterday a Cyprus fear day, and today they had to deliver or at least not to disappoint. That's why I took the DB in the afternoon, thinking they would buy the market, as you can expect a Cyprus deal before the market will open on Monday. But I was out with 10 ticks as it was loosing steam, and so I missed the final move.

I think your idea to post charts with entry/stop/target and to use a journal is a good thing.

You are right Sir, thanks for the note and your chart as well.

See you on Monday.

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  #14 (permalink)
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pilotui View Post
Clearly I am shorting against a pretty strong trend.
Lets see what happens


pilotui View Post
Ok, lets try this again
Short 14423...kind of think I should have gone pending order but oh well.


pilotui View Post
Feel free to make comments etc...


pilotui, thanks for starting this journal. The good news is that you kept your losses relatively small. Since you welcomed comments, I have two, with the first being the primary one:

1) Your mindset: Put very simply, you acknowledged it was 'clearly ... a pretty strong trend' and seemed to express concern about going against that strength, yet you did so anyway. Why?

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with shorting today's market (as I'll mention below), but there is something fundamentally wrong (IMO) with taking a trade while you indicate you think it's not really a good trade, and then saying "let's see what happens."

I used to love to fade trend days, and I think this was because I did not really trust myself, and so I would somehow doubt that it could be as easy as simply buying dips on a trend day up. Instead, I would take a low probability short, with a low potential reward even if that low probability played out. Sometimes we do things which we know are obviously poor ideas while we're doing them, yet we still do them.


2) Market state and trade location: I just erased a bunch of stuff I wrote that got too long to say this: if you're going to short a day like today, short the highs, and preferably, have a prepared plan before the open to find prices you think will be advantageous to trade so that your risk is reduced. Today was not a trend day, but clearly the bias was long. Look at this past Friday, Monday, and Tuesday and note the highs, all within 8 ticks of each other; what does that tell you about possible advantageous short trade location?

The scary trade is often the best trade, and it's much more likely to work, simply based on the nature of the game. Shorting after a 25 point pullback off the high in a market that is up, and has not yet pulled back 25 points yet today, is taking the easy trade that has tons of so-called confirmation, and yet is ironically less likely to work. Shorting a new high is scary, but when coupled with good trade location and in the right market context, it is much more likely to work, it just never feels that way, which is why we much prefer to sell low and buy high (when we are "more sure" and have "more confirmation" that a trade will work), which is the opposite of what we should be doing.

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  #15 (permalink)
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-An excellent and insightful post. Thank you Josh!



josh View Post
pilotui, thanks for starting this journal. The good news is that you kept your losses relatively small. Since you welcomed comments, I have two, with the first being the primary one:

1) Your mindset: Put very simply, you acknowledged it was 'clearly ... a pretty strong trend' and seemed to express concern about going against that strength, yet you did so anyway. Why?

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with shorting today's market (as I'll mention below), but there is something fundamentally wrong (IMO) with taking a trade while you indicate you think it's not really a good trade, and then saying "let's see what happens."

I used to love to fade trend days, and I think this was because I did not really trust myself, and so I would somehow doubt that it could be as easy as simply buying dips on a trend day up. Instead, I would take a low probability short, with a low potential reward even if that low probability played out. Sometimes we do things which we know are obviously poor ideas while we're doing them, yet we still do them.


2) Market state and trade location: I just erased a bunch of stuff I wrote that got too long to say this: if you're going to short a day like today, short the highs, and preferably, have a prepared plan before the open to find prices you think will be advantageous to trade so that your risk is reduced. Today was not a trend day, but clearly the bias was long. Look at this past Friday, Monday, and Tuesday and note the highs, all within 8 ticks of each other; what does that tell you about possible advantageous short trade location?

The scary trade is often the best trade, and it's much more likely to work, simply based on the nature of the game. Shorting after a 25 point pullback off the high in a market that is up, and has not yet pulled back 25 points yet today, is taking the easy trade that has tons of so-called confirmation, and yet is ironically less likely to work. Shorting a new high is scary, but when coupled with good trade location and in the right market context, it is much more likely to work, it just never feels that way, which is why we much prefer to sell low and buy high (when we are "more sure" and have "more confirmation" that a trade will work), which is the opposite of what we should be doing.


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  #16 (permalink)
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Back at it

Well, I'm not going to post as much, maybe just 1 actual trade + end of day statement.

Bottom line, I did some hard reflecting and I'm going to stick to what I know...maybe 1 trade a day maybe 2-3.

#1 rule is playing on the house...let it ride.

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This was my first live trade in @ 3 months.

Happy to be back live, but totally self aware. Overconfidence will kill me.

I'll post my real acct statement from Transact (Infinity) either tonight or in the AM when they send it.

I'll be better tomorrow, because of today.

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  #17 (permalink)
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Lessons Learned from today

Recap for me, of what to take note of.

I did well, but I will do better. Follow rules (ie, don't exit unless it's an emergency stop or I receive the exit signal on the higher TF...WITH THE TREND) Without the trend take the exit signal on the current TF.

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  #18 (permalink)
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26 March

Have to say I am really proud of myself.

I took 1 continuation trade on that early YM perma-trend up...

Nabbed 7 ticks and have been sitting out.

I don't need to trade day's like this because there will be days like yesterday more often than not.

No need to chase the super rollover trade that comes out of the chop.

GOOD JOB.

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  #19 (permalink)
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nice, basic analytics,

512t is an interesting interval, any thoughts on its choosing?

also, does your platform offer you VWAP, that might shed some light on extremes and possible entry targets too

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  #20 (permalink)
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Kronie, thanks for the note. Yeah I have VWAP on TOS but I have played with it quite a bit and found that if anything it adds confusion my decision process.

Now I just wait for the cross, trade the cross and SL @ local swing High/Low

Wash, Rinse & Repeat

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