Kevin's TST Combine Journal - futures io
futures io futures trading



Kevin's TST Combine Journal


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated by kevinkdog
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one kevinkdog with 237 posts (639 thanks)
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 34 posts (61 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Pedro40 with 27 posts (19 thanks)
    4. looks_4 deaddog with 20 posts (12 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Silver Dragon with 3.0 thanks per post
    2. looks_two kevinkdog with 2.7 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 1.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Pedro40 with 0.7 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 68,340 views
    2. thumb_up 885 thanks given
    3. group 59 followers
    1. forum 460 replies
    2. attach_file 138 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 100,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Kevin's TST Combine Journal

(login for full post details)
  #461 (permalink)
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker: Tradestation, DeCarley, others
Trading: futures
 
Posts: 2,776 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,425 given, 5,344 received


Ddawg View Post
Kevin, Do you have any research (or maybe gut instinct), on which of your trades on which days are higher percentage winners?

I have been looking at a strategy of trying to quantify the setup as a percentage, and then trade it with a size relative to its winning percentage. Basically, if I have a setup that runs at 70% (for example), trading it with much larger size. I am testing it out, and have not tried a combine yet...it may not even work.

Do you have any thoughts on how to improve/adapt this idea?

To try and explain it a little more: Lets say you had a strategy to fade the gap if it was more than 8 points, and found it was most effective on Fridays, could you model an expectancy for this idea? If Mon-Thurs was say 55%, but Friday jumped up to 70%, could you increase position sizing on this day to try to ramp up profitability?

Hopefully, this post makes sense.

Thanks
Danny
P.S. I really appreciate the discussion relative to sizing, and all the time you have put into these posts. It is very informative and interesting. Call me crazy but I love talking about trading


Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it.

A "day of the week" can be useful, if you have enough data backing it up, and you actually test the idea from the start. What many people do, though, is to run a system for a while, and after a couple of months say "Fridays I always win. Maybe I'll try double size on Fridays." With that approach, they are optimizing for day of the week after the fact, and probably without enough data. So, in that case I would not recommend it.

In using "day of week" approaches, I've started with the idea at the beginning of development. For example, I might say "every Friday, if the trend is up, I will look to buy Crude Oil near the close, and sell on Monday morning. The theory is that any natural disasters, terrorist attacks, wars/conflicts that start on the weekend might send crude much higher, especially when the general trend is up." My point is I try to build in the day of week idea before I actually test.


For position sizing purposes, I personally would not use winning percentage as the criteria. I'd use expectancy, or maybe largest loss, instead. The reason is that a 70% win system probably has small wins, and bigger losses. If you trade bigger size, and get hit with a loss, it will hurt a lot more.

But, every system is different, and it may be worth running some random simulations with different ideas, and see if one stands out.

I hope this answers your questions, if not please reply back.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote

 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Is anyone actually making money?
191 thanks
Micro account vs Funded account (combine)
53 thanks
Are sharks watching on the other side?
30 thanks
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
24 thanks
Life sacrifice loneliness trading futures
20 thanks


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Kevin's TST Combine Journal


April 26, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

Every journal equals ten meals for the hungry

Now
     



Copyright © 2020 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts