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Kevin's TST Combine Journal


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Kevin's TST Combine Journal

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  #431 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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  #432 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Day 19 is in the books - it was a nice little winner with 10 contracts. That put me positive, FINALLY!

So, Day 20 (Thurs night / Friday) is going to be a simple 1 contract in and out trade. $17.50 total loser.

In the end, I ended up just slightly positive. I will submit my results to see if I qualify for a rollover (I should, unless I missed something).

I feel the only thing I did well in this Combine was keeping my discipline, and trading per the plan, even when it would have been easier to just "roll the dice" and go for broke.


At this point, I've done 2 Combines, and failed to pass, or fail, either.


Looking forward, the following questions remain:

1. Am I ready to start trading strategies 1, 2 and 3 with my own money?

2. Am I going to do another Combine, since I may qualify for a free one via rollover?


I will address these questions in the days ahead...


Tomorrow (Friday), I will be on TopStepTrader Radio at 10 AM CST (note different time than normal) to discuss my Combine and answer some questions.




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  #433 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
I feel the only thing I did well in this Combine was keeping my discipline, and trading per the plan, even when it would have been easier to just "roll the dice" and go for broke.


kevinkdog View Post
For the first trade, I started about $150 above the max drawdown. Meaning, a closed trade loss greater than $150 meant certain failure. Since my stop for even 1 contract is $425, I had nothing to lose...so I traded 10 contracts, and made around $1600 on the trade.

Isn't that rolling the dice and going for broke?

Also isn't taking a quick loss with one contract to stay in the game a change from your original strategy?

I'm asking this because early in the combine I suggested that one may have to adjust their strategy to keep playing and you replied:

Quoting 
The Combine is 20 trading days MINIMUM. So no need to gamble. I agree it will be hard reaching the profit target trading small size. Even as it gets towards the end, I won't gamble - what is the point? That won't prove my strategies are good - it will just prove I can violate my plan.

I hope Iím not being too critical.

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  #434 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
Isn't that rolling the dice and going for broke?

Also isn't taking a quick loss with one contract to stay in the game a change from your original strategy?


I don't see it that way (both of these special situations were in fact part of the plan - the latter technique was also used on the last Combine too), but I understand your thinking.

I'll try to disclose the complete plan better, should I try another Combine.

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  #435 (permalink)
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1. Am I ready to start trading strategies 1, 2 and 3 with my own money?

Here is the latest performance chart (based on Tradestation performance report) for Strategies 1, 2 and 3. Just to remind casual readers, part of doing the Combine was to validate if I could and should trade Strats 1, 2 and 3 with my own money, regardless of Combine performance.

So far, after 4+ months and 52 trading days, the overall performance (based on 1 contract traded always) looks pretty good. It is doing better than the "average" line, which concerns me a bit - over the long term, performance should be close to the average line, which implies that the strategies will underperform in the future.

I also have to do some correlation analysis with 3 other Euro systems I currently trade live - I don't want to be too heavy in the Euro.

Based on all this, I will probably wait until I get 60 trading days (another month or so), and assuming everything checks out, then turn them "on."


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  #436 (permalink)
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I assume the graph shows actual performance. What would it look like with the postion size being constant, 2contracts per trade?

Can you break it down by strategy?

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  #437 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
I assume the graph shows actual performance. What would it look like with the postion size being constant, 2contracts per trade?

Can you break it down by strategy?

The graph above is "perfect" performance, not actual. Also, it does not include strategy #4.

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  #438 (permalink)
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I will be doing a webinar at TopStepTrader on Friday August 16th at Noon CT. It is through topsteptrader.com website.

The topic: ..."Coming Back from the Brink of Failure: The Keys to Successfully Pulling Your Account Out of the Red"

Unfortunately, my Combine #2 was my first hand experience with that!


Please feel free to post questions here, and I'll try to answer them in the presentation.

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  #439 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
The topic: ..."Coming Back from the Brink of Failure: The Keys to Successfully Pulling Your Account Out of the Red"

Unfortunately, my Combine #2 was my first hand experience with that!

I think it is fortunate. Otherwise people could accuse you of talking something about what you have no idea...

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  #440 (permalink)
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Pedro40 View Post
I think it is fortunate. Otherwise people could accuse you of talking something about what you have no idea...


Yes, I have plenty of experience with the "dark" side of trading...

Too many people out there make trading sound like the land of milk and honey - it is definitely not!

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