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Kevin's TST Combine Journal

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  #411 (permalink)
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MarketPilot View Post
I did not read all the new posts before before my last post.

If there are few trades per day I understand why you would swing for the fence on the first trade and have the risk of a loss keeping you from trading that day. Especially as you might not have another signal. I know I either missed this detail or simply did not remember this fact about your system.

My only other thought is have you considered a system that would trade more times per day? Or revising this system for more trades?

Either option could work. For more trades per day, the biggest problem is that your losses would likely have to be smaller, which makes it a lot more difficult to develop a long term positive trading system.

As an example, I currently trade a couple of Euro strategies with my own money, and they have per contract stops around $1000-$2000. For the Combine, I created strategies with $500 stop loss. Creating a $500 sl system was a ton harder than creating a $1K sl system.

For revising the system, I hate to do that, since usually it leads to better backtested results, but not better live results. That revision process can easily become curve fitting.

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One way or another, I think the end is near...



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Kevin; It must an offshoot of Murphy's Laws that whenever you post trades you will end up in a period of drawdown. It has happened several times to me in the past. 2 months of easy trading and as soon as I attempt to show my skill, bam; 10 losses in a row.

Goals 2 and 3 can still be met.


kevinkdog View Post
My goals for this Combine:

1. Pass the Combine, or at least avoid a spectacular failure!

2. Continue test drive "incubation" of strategies 1-3, to see if I should allocate real money to them

3. Hopefully pass along some words of advice to newer traders




Please feel free to post questions, comments, criticisms, etc.

Looking forward to your post mortum:

DD

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Hi Kevin,

I completely agree with @deaddog , and I am also looking forward to your postmortem. (And, of course, it ain't over yet!)

This has been an informative and thought-provoking thread. I hope you finish well, and I hope you are will keep going with it.

I recall that you started with the idea that you would enter a much smaller Combine, and also that you didn't have that much time to create and test the systems that you would use. Granted that the current results are a very small sample, but what are your current thoughts on these systems? What would be different if you started fresh?

Good luck on the rest of the Combine.

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bobwest View Post
Hi Kevin,

I completely agree with @deaddog , and I am also looking forward to your postmortem. (And, of course, it ain't over yet!)

This has been an informative and thought-provoking thread. I hope you finish well, and I hope you are will keep going with it.

I recall that you started with the idea that you would enter a much smaller Combine, and also that you didn't have that much time to create and test the systems that you would use. Granted that the current results are a very small sample, but what are your current thoughts on these systems? What would be different if you started fresh?

Good luck on the rest of the Combine.


My conclusions so far:

1. My initial strategies may be good for trading my own account, where I don't have some of the Combine rules.

2. Position sizing has played a big role in the overall results - more so than even the strategies themselves.

3. I haven't thought at all about what, if anything, I'd do differently. No point for me, unless there is a Combine #3 in my future.

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Granted a temporary stay of execution from the governor's office. Still on Death Row, though...



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kevinkdog View Post
Granted a temporary stay of execution from the governor's office. Still on Death Row, though...

Nicely done. What was the position sizing for these? And what will it be for tomorrow?

Mike

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Big Mike View Post
Nicely done. What was the position sizing for these? And what will it be for tomorrow?

Mike


For the first trade, I started about $150 above the max drawdown. Meaning, a closed trade loss greater than $150 meant certain failure. Since my stop for even 1 contract is $425, I had nothing to lose...so I traded 10 contracts, and made around $1600 on the trade.

Second trade was only 2 contracts. It made $700.

Third trade was a goof, 1 contract.


Tomorrow will be between 2-4 contracts, except my win high percentage overnight system, which may be up to 10. I say that because I am heading out in a bit, and will likely enter any overnight trade late. So, I might be able to take on more contracts, with same risk.


Realistically, passing the Combine seems out of the question. Hitting breakeven is still in play, however.

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