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Kevin's TST Combine Journal
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Kevin's TST Combine Journal

  #331 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Pedro40's Avatar
 
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Dipping below max. DD

Yes, you can go below the max. DD, as long as you bring it back by the close. I have done it more than once. If I recall, you can actually close the trade too, and start with a new one, as long as the DLL hasn't been hit.

Doesn't really make sense, but that is how it works....

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  #332 (permalink)
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Pedro40 View Post
Doesn't really make sense, but that is how it works....

It has to simply be a loophole due to technology implementation on the reporting side. I would certainly imagine that a live funded trader, who has a live risk manager, would not be allowed to repeat the same thing.

You should ask in the TopstepTrader AMA thread.

Mike

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  #333 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Hmm.

I would feel bad.

I am just an outsider looking in, so take that with a grain of salt naturally. But, it seems to me the strategy was overleveraged from the start which is causing these issues.

Being forced to skip a trade because of risk management, account sizing, etc, is a flaw in the original strategy, in my opinion. And trying to cherry pick which trades are worth taking, trying to manipulate the size of the trade on the fly, etc -- well, none of it was part of the original backtest, based on my understanding. So you are greatly altering the results.

If I can be so bold, and hopefully not piss you off because I like you, this thread, and want you to come do more futures.io (formerly BMT) webinars --- I think the issue here is a bit of ego. You have a sense of needing to prove yourself publicly and don't want to fail a combine. This is affecting your decisions.

Normally, I am all for public accountability. Most people in that situation are struggling traders that need the accountability to stop making really stupid decisions (to be frank). But in this case, I think you are a good trader already, and are feeling some pressure to publicly demonstrate that, which is leading to some bad choices.

I hope it somehow helps.

Mike

Thanks for the comments. I do appreciate them, and I like seeing the perspective of readers on this Combine.

The Max Drawdown rule was, in hindsight, something that I did not spend enough time preparing for. Of course, now I am dealing with it, so we'll see how that goes...

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  #334 (permalink)
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Combine, Day 3 and 4

I forgot to post Day 3 results, so here are Day 3 and Day 4 results. I have included the trade I did not take because of the risk of ruin in the "perfect" calculation .

Next trade will be 1 contract. It will increase to 2 for the trade after, if the win is big enough.


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  #335 (permalink)
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Speaking of risk of ruin, have you seen this thread:

https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/15602-risk-ruin.html

Since you have a lot of experience in this area I would welcome your thoughts on that thread, if you think anything can be added to the discussion and spreadsheets.

Mike

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  #336 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
It has to simply be a loophole due to technology implementation on the reporting side.

That would make sense as an explanation, but this rule is actually included among the rules, so it looks like it is intentional...

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  #337 (permalink)
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It just means that the absolute maximum drawdown you can hit is (max DD -1) + Daily Loss Limit. So the risk still has a hard limit.

I would think if you're dropping into that zone much intraday, you could still pass the combine but would be unlikely to be funded.

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  #338 (permalink)
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Combine, Day 5

2 trades today, 2 small winners. With both trades, I traded only 1 contract, per the plan.

Due to increased equity, next trade will be for 2 contracts. So, with my luck, it will probably be a loser!

Big Mike had mentioned a couple of times that he thought I was overleveraged, trading 6 contracts at the beginning. Sizing that big at the start definitely hurt me (it would have helped a lot had I had some winning trades, of course). To "normalize" the results, I include a chart at the bottom of trading 2 contracts for each trade. That should give everyone an indication of how position sizing is helping or hurting my overall performance.

So far, as Big Mike pointed out, my position sizing is really hurting my performance.


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  #339 (permalink)
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Official Results

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  #340 (permalink)
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Combine, Day 6


Slowly clawing my way back. Next trade will still be for 2 contracts, and if it is a decent size winner, I will increase to 3 contracts.

As I had mentioned before the Combine 2 started, I am using position sizing that is designed to maximize profit, while still respecting the Daily Loss Limit. Plus, it now has to account for the Max Drawdown.

So, for each trade so far, the position size may have varied from 1 to 6 contracts, but in each trade I followed a set schedule for size.

Why do I mention this? Mainly, I want to be clear that position size decisions are not made in the heat of the moment (which almost never ends well). I recommend people make those decisions beforehand, when they have a clear mind and focus. Then, just execute to the plan.

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