Kevin's TST Combine Journal - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Kevin's TST Combine Journal
Updated: Views / Replies:52,959 / 460
Created: by kevinkdog Attachments:139

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 139  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Kevin's TST Combine Journal

  #231 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Pedro40 View Post
You are right, I forgot about that, it will be a -5$ losing day.... But it is the same as taking 1 tick hit, but with less cost.... You have the winning % at 70 nicely built up so, it won't go down to below 50....

I think my approach would be immediate exit after entry, so I'd give up a tick and have an overall $17.50 loss. 3 of those would be $52.50, leaving me around $27 profit.

I don't think I can afford to attempt a breakeven trade, since if it goes another tick against me, I am in trouble.

In any event, I am waiting on TST to clarify a couple of questions I have, before I proceed.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
 
  #232 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Pedro40's Avatar
 
Posts: 555 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 31 given, 361 received


kevinkdog View Post
I am waiting on TST to clarify a couple of questions I have, before I proceed.

Then you have to post the dilemma in the TST AMA thread, because you can't expect them to read every Combine Journal.... (and they answer it quicker)

Or email them if you want a quick answer, but I don't think they care either way. You can use the Combine for at least 4 different things:

1. Trying to get funded.
2. Practicing trading general.
3. Testing a particular strategy.
4. To establish some sort of trading record.
etc,etc

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Pedro40 for this post:
 
  #233 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Combine, Day 18


No strategy trades today, but I took one $5 quick loser...



Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to kevinkdog for this post:
 
  #234 (permalink)
Elite Member
phl pa. usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Favorite Futures: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

well you now see ,it looks like you have a well balanced system ,now you can start looking back over time to see how to unbalance it for winners both ways ,i find this very interesting

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to creekboy for this post:
 
  #235 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


creekboy View Post
well you now see ,it looks like you have a well balanced system ,now you can start looking back over time to see how to unbalance it for winners both ways ,i find this very interesting

Can you explain a bit? Not sure what "unbalance" means...

THANKS

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
 
  #236 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Munich, Germany
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Equity Index Futures
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 121 given, 116 received


kevinkdog View Post


Hi Kevin,

Very interesting thread you have here!

One question regarding the attachment above: Isn't it strange that the actual/perfect results are ALL THE TIME very close to the "lower 25%" band?

I am familiar with Monte Carlo simulations, but have used them only for corporate planning purposes and not for trading (I'm a discretionary trader anyway). Not sure how exactly you applied it here (which are the input variables with which data and distributions applied?), but shouldn't the trading results be more evenly distributed between the different top/lower 10%/25% bands?

Without further information (for me) it looks like the model is not a good approximation of reality. Or, maybe I misunderstand something here completely...

Thanks in advance!

k

PS: ... and by the way, do the rollover... with the same arguments the others gave, who voted for the rollover.

Reply With Quote
 
  #237 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


karoshiman View Post
Hi Kevin,

Very interesting thread you have here!

One question regarding the attachment above: Isn't it strange that the actual/perfect results are ALL THE TIME very close to the "lower 25%" band?

I am familiar with Monte Carlo simulations, but have used them only for corporate planning purposes and not for trading (I'm a discretionary trader anyway). Not sure how exactly you applied it here (which are the input variables with which data and distributions applied?), but shouldn't the trading results be more evenly distributed between the different top/lower 10%/25% bands?

Without further information (for me) it looks like the model is not a good approximation of reality. Or, maybe I misunderstand something here completely...

Thanks in advance!

k

PS: ... and by the way, do the rollover... with the same arguments the others gave, who voted for the rollover.

The thick lines are based on historical walkforward backtests. The average profit per day and the standard deviation are all you need to create the thick line curves. Plotted with that are the actual results. Since the actual results are around the 25% line, it tells me 2 things:

1) The strategy, during the combine, has underperformed its historical backtest

2) The strategy, since it is within the 10 and 90% lines, is within expectations (ie, the strategy does not appear to be broken).


The problem is, with so little Combine data, it is tough to draw any long term conclusions yet.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to kevinkdog for this post:
 
  #238 (permalink)
Elite Member
phl pa. usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Favorite Futures: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received


kevinkdog View Post
Can you explain a bit? Not sure what "unbalance" means...

THANKS

if you used a bollinger with your system ,just the center line ,not outsiders, it may help you see where you are balanced and unbalanced , use it and back test your entries and see how it fairs with it ,

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to creekboy for this post:
 
  #239 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Combine, Day 19

No strategy generated entries today. This system (set of 3 unique strategies) is definitely missing a lot of nice moving days lately.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kevinkdog for this post:
 
  #240 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Munich, Germany
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Equity Index Futures
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 121 given, 116 received



kevinkdog View Post
The thick lines are based on historical walkforward backtests. The average profit per day and the standard deviation are all you need to create the thick line curves. Plotted with that are the actual results. Since the actual results are around the 25% line, it tells me 2 things:

1) The strategy, during the combine, has underperformed its historical backtest

2) The strategy, since it is within the 10 and 90% lines, is within expectations (ie, the strategy does not appear to be broken).


The problem is, with so little Combine data, it is tough to draw any long term conclusions yet.


Thank you! I think, I understand now.

When I said, "it looks like the model is not a good approximation of reality" I meant the Monte Carlo model and not the trading systems, btw. But now I understand (I hope), how the thick lines have been created and, hence, how they have to be interpreted correctly.

Yes, 1 combine (or even 2 or 3!) are not enough to draw any conclusions.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to karoshiman for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Kevin's TST Combine Journal

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Yiehom's TST combine yiehom Elite Trading Journals 37 August 6th, 2017 01:16 PM
TST Combine Journal indextrader7 Trading Journals 556 August 28th, 2014 01:16 AM
Josh's TST Combine Journal josh Elite Trading Journals 106 April 9th, 2013 10:36 PM
Poc's Trading Journal, TST combine Pocwave Elite Trading Journals 4 March 4th, 2013 09:58 AM
Surly's TST Combine Surly Elite Trading Journals 144 February 16th, 2013 03:33 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:12 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-17 in 0.16 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 107.20.115.174