Personally, I think you should take the certain rollover.
I understand the argument that you want to stick to the system all the way through, but in effect you will do that anyway because you are tracking the system in TradeStation. This is not a discretionary trader ignoring his methods to finish out, its just the signals of a mechanical system that will generate those signals regardless of what is executed in the combine account. You have already proven that you will follow the system "no matter what". You also pointed out that the combine is not really long enough to know for certain if the system is "good enough" or not. Now you have a free opportunity to extend the evaluation period. This also buys some time to work on the Trader Prep period issues.
Not only will you get a longer period in a live environment incubator, but you keep alive the opportunity to get funded (assuming this is one of the goals). Not to mention my selfish desire to keep watching...it has been a very interesting and educational process.
The following 5 users say Thank You to WarEagle for this post:
If I were you, I'd take a couple 1 tick losers and rollover and save the $300 or whatever the cost is to do another Combine. Then you can report your "luck" (will it be good or bad?) because we all know you will monitor the actual trades you would have taken and calculate, hypothetically, where you would have ended.
Look forward to following your next Combine!!
The following 2 users say Thank You to MBAGearhead for this post:
I really don't put any value on the funded trader part. It seems I am in the minority as everyone else is focused on that.
Instead, I put value in the risk and discipline that the combine instills. Getting funded might be important for some, but I think for most the combine's act as a less expensive and faster route to hone your discipline and risk, without blowing an entire futures account to do so.
However, I have seen some people on the forum just fire away at combine after combine, for example if they fail the first then they are back in another combine within hours. To me that is ridiculous, and if anything proves you have a major flaw in your logic. So you definitely have to respect the process, you can't just treat it like a game that once you get the high score that is all that matters, and you just keep playing over and over until you finally get lucky.
My point is just that, do you really need to be funded? Or does the combine benefit you in other ways that you can use in your existing strategies?
I've rambled so will stop now.
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The following 8 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
Getting funded would be good, but the pathway to that is becoming a better trader.
If you found a way to get funded without actually being able to trade well, you wouldn't last too long in your funded account. The point of the Combine is to simulate the experience of real money trading without the risk, so that you can do the real thing when the time comes.
The training is much more important than the money. The training is excellent. Money can be found anywhere, really.
The following user says Thank You to bobwest for this post:
@bobwest - I like your statement about trading "without worrying about outcomes." That is an important facet of trading.
@WarEagle - You make some excellent points, especially that with my approach, Tradestation will monitor and track the hypothetical results anyhow.
@MBAGearhead - Thanks for your input, on your first post no less! You are right - I'd report my "luck" regardless.
@addchild - An expectancy calculation. Thanks. You are right, it should not be about emotion, feelings, and all that fuzzy stuff. The numbers say "take the rollover." The numbers don't lie.
@Big Mike - I'm not in the Combine specifically for the funding, although if it happened, that would be great. My motivation was to stretch my development process to the limit - could I do what I normally do development wise, and meet the very tough Combine goals? I thought this Combine would make me a better trader. You know what, I think it did!
If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to kevinkdog for this post:
I was in it for the live account without a doubt. That was my #1 goal. Now I am in it to learn how to trade. I have gained wealth of knowledge and experience on risk, discipline and money management. I working to get funded so I can work with Bob and Hoag. Both of the them work with the funded traders. I want to learn how to take it to the next level.
At the same time if I fail to get funded I now have have better skills to go back to my live account. Honestly, I think would be less pressure to trade my own account with what I have learned than in the combine I am in now. I would still trade the combine every so often to keep my trading in check while I keep trying to get funded. I think the combine is a great tool for any trader to gain perspective on how they are trading and where they can improve on risk, discipline and money management.
nosce te ipsum
Trade what the market is doing; NOT what you think its going to do.
The following 5 users say Thank You to Silver Dragon for this post:
My advice is pretty obvious, do the rollover. (and you can take breakeven trades too, they won't mess with your stats, but count as traded day, and costs only $5)
The logic is pretty simple: You already have 17 days of testing your system (the result is obviously breakeven) so 3 extra days won't really add much to it, but you might lose $200. If you roll over you can add another 20 days of testing to it, so that is more valuable than this extra 3 days...
You are right, I forgot about that, it will be a -5$ losing day.... But it is the same as taking 1 tick hit, but with less cost.... You have the winning % at 70 nicely built up so, it won't go down to below 50....