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Kevin's TST Combine Journal


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Kevin's TST Combine Journal

  #171 (permalink)
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xelaar View Post
Kevin
A large barrier option was rumored there. If you trade levels it always paid to place limits ahead of any round number or important high or low because there can be some large interest preventing price from touching the level.
All the best. Alex

Yes, and in this case, who knows what would have happened, had that barrier been broken? In my mind, that is why hindsight bias can be so bad. Just looking at the chart now, I conclude I missed a great trade. But really, had price broken 1.3100 and soared higher, I may have avoided a loser. I just don't know.

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  #172 (permalink)
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After almost a week of no trades, with only 3 weeks left in the Combine, and minimum 6 trading days left to trade, being stuck, essentially in neutral, is really frustrating.

The impulse to go "rouge" - to just start trading, in hopes of passing the Combine, is very strong.

But then, what's the point? The point of the Combine is to pass it, and then stay funded. The point is not to pass the Combine just to pass it, or for me to look better to all the people reading this journal.

I'm sure this impulse has hit most traders out there. After a time of "treading water" performance, the demons start to come out. They tell you to trade trade trade. Do something, anything, to start making some money. The voices tell you that time is passing you by, and others are making profits, but not you. Take a flyer trade, take a gamble, the voices say.

Don't listen to the voices.

I'm surely not. I'm trading the same plan I started out with. If it works, great. If not, oh well.

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  #173 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
After almost a week of no trades, with only 3 weeks left in the Combine, and minimum 6 trading days left to trade, being stuck, essentially in neutral, is really frustrating.

The impulse to go "rouge" - to just start trading, in hopes of passing the Combine, is very strong.

But then, what's the point? The point of the Combine is to pass it, and then stay funded. The point is not to pass the Combine just to pass it, or for me to look better to all the people reading this journal.

I'm sure this impulse has hit most traders out there. After a time of "treading water" performance, the demons start to come out. They tell you to trade trade trade. Do something, anything, to start making some money. The voices tell you that time is passing you by, and others are making profits, but not you. Take a flyer trade, take a gamble, the voices say.

Don't listen to the voices.

I'm surely not. I'm trading the same plan I started out with. If it works, great. If not, oh well.



the above post is by far the smartest most intelligent post i have ever read on BIGMIKes site ,well done

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option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #174 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
After almost a week of no trades, with only 3 weeks left in the Combine, and minimum 6 trading days left to trade, being stuck, essentially in neutral, is really frustrating.

Well, reality is, you are unlikely to pass the combine. You already know this.

So what you need to decide is whether or not there is enough data to determine that your strategy is performing as expected, and simply was not good enough to pass the combine (which could mean any number of things, such as trade frequency or just luck), or if the strategy is not performing as expected and therefore should be discontinued or rewritten.

I assume that whether you pass or fail the combine, you'll continue to let the strategy run for a while longer so that you can make that decision.

If you choose to do another combine, I imagine you'll do so with more strategies in your portfolio to increase the trade frequency. You could even include this strategy in that, and add to it with some others.

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  #175 (permalink)
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Excellent observations and suggestions!



Big Mike View Post
Well, reality is, you are unlikely to pass the combine. You already know this.

Only a lucky run can help me now...


Big Mike View Post
So what you need to decide is whether or not there is enough data to determine that your strategy is performing as expected, and simply was not good enough to pass the combine (which could mean any number of things, such as trade frequency or just luck), or if the strategy is not performing as expected and therefore should be discontinued or rewritten.

Definitely correct. I think the jury is still out on this strategy, due to the lack of trading.


Big Mike View Post
I assume that whether you pass or fail the combine, you'll continue to let the strategy run for a while longer so that you can make that decision.

Yes, probably another 2-4 months. Then I should have enough data to make an intelligent decision.


Big Mike View Post
If you choose to do another combine, I imagine you'll do so with more strategies in your portfolio to increase the trade frequency. You could even include this strategy in that, and add to it with some others.

I hadn't thought of that, mainly because I was thinking of trading only the Euro. I could add another Euro strategy, or I could introduce another instrument. I'd have to develop a strat for another instrument, to meet the combine rules.

One thing I would do is develop/modify all strategies to meet the "second" round of the combine (I'm not sure what that second round is called). But, in it there are rules for weekly loss, and the introduction of a trailing stop, among other things. I'd want these in from the beginning, since otherwise I might pass the first, but not the second.


Last edited by kevinkdog; April 29th, 2013 at 07:22 AM. Reason: correct typo
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  #176 (permalink)
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Luck

If you've read through this journal, you'll see there are quite a few times that I talk about "luck." I talk about being lucky, having luck on my side, etc.

You might wonder "Hey, Kevin, if you are supposedly a winning trader, why do you need luck?"

Well, my definition of luck is "when preparedness meets opportunity.*" I'll explain how that applies to trading, but first an example from football.


Last football season, the San Francisco 49ers had a great quarterback named Alex Smith. After a terrific 2010 season, there was no doubt he was the starting QB. He was just that good.

His backup was also pretty good. His name was Colin Kapernick, and he knew he was the likely backup all season. BUT, he practiced, paid attention and otherwise played as if he'd be called on at a moment's notice. In other words, he was prepared.

Midway through the season, Alex Smith got a concussion and could not play. So, Colin Kapernick became the starter (his opportunity). He seized the job, took full advantage, and kept the starting role the of the year, until the 49ers lost the Super Bowl.

Some say Colin was lucky to get his chance to start. Maybe. But, to get this "luck" he needed the opportunity (Ales Smith's injury) and he needed to be prepared to take advantage (by practicing, rehearsing, etc). Fate might have opened the door, but Colin himself kicked it down and kept it open.


How does this relate to trading?


My experience is that, with positive expectancy trading systems, over the long haul "luck" tends to run in my favor. Big positive days tend to outnumber big negative days (although these negative days still occur, all too often for me!).

So, to me, "luck" in trading is when I create a positive expectancy trading system (preparedness), and then let it run wild in the market. Eventually, good opportunities are going to come along, and I'll be "lucky."

The bad thing is that you cannot count on luck. Sometimes it arrives, and sometimes (like my Combine so far), it does not. Regardless, you should be prepared anyhow, for any opportunity that comes around to give you luck.


* I think I got that definition from a personal development course from Earl Nightingale - "Lead The Field."

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  #177 (permalink)
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Thanks, Kevin. A very good trading mindset and overview of expectation. Winning a Combine certainly requires some star alignment as even the best systems and traders can have their low days and day of no opportunities. Trading profitably over the time not putting too much risk on any day's or even month's outcome certainly not depending so much on celestial alignments. One should always remember that this is a probability game and no home to certainty to both any given trade outcome or even month's worth of trading outcome.

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  #178 (permalink)
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No Trades Today

No Trades Today.



Since my last trade was a week ago, here is where I currently stand...



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  #179 (permalink)
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No Trades Today, Tuesday April 30th.


We had a discussion earlier about altering your strategy just to pass the Combine. Some thought this was a good idea, some did not.

I found a recent funded trader. Take a look at his results, especially the last 30% of his Combine.


NOT MY RESULTS BELOW...




What do you think?

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  #180 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
What do you think?

I thought that was smart trading, I saw that earlier yesterday. He was done by day 7, there was no reason to screw it up for the last 3 days, so he took 3 1-1 tick profits each days.

Completely by the rules, smart move. He has to pass the live trade preparation anyway....

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