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Kevin's TST Combine Journal

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  #161 (permalink)
Miami FL USA
 
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Damn!

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  #162 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
UUUUUUGGGGGHHHHH! Waiting for the Big One, and almost had it today...


Like every other trader out there, occasionally I come across situations where my entry is almost hit, but isn't. Of course, then the market takes off without me. VERY frustrating. Today was such a day.

Missing an entry by a couple of ticks can be psychologically devastating. It makes you think "my system is good - it just needs a little adjustment," or maybe "the logic is sound, maybe I need to add more rules to my plan" or worse yet "how could my system miss such a great trade? I'm ditching it!" Your mind will think of a million ways to make that "nearly a trade" into "definitely a trade." In the end, your brain might actually think that trade WAS in your strategy - you just missed benefiting from it.

Of course, such thinking is dangerous. Just look at the facts - your strategy did not have that trade. Your backtest would not have had that trade. That "trade" wasn't a trade for you. It is nothing to you.

If you change your strategy to include that trade (maybe by entering a few ticks early, as price approaches your entry price), are you going to review your history, and include all other cases just like this? Maybe then your strategy will actually be worse - who knows?

On one hand, this makes me feel really good about the system - it was oh-so-close to getting a great trade. On the other hand, this fills me with disappointment. Not many whopper trades are out there, and my system just missed a great one.

Really, I should feel neither happiness, nor disappointment. I should feel NOTHING, because nothing happened.


The lesson here is DON'T PLAY THE "IF" GAME. As someone once said, "if 'ifs' were fifths, we'd all be drunk!"



I have fallen in love with this post.

It simply lights up the path I need to take.

If I can spell out this post in block letters, here they come:

I R O N D I S C I P L I N E



Thanks for this wonderful post, Kevin!

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  #163 (permalink)
phl pa. usa
 
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so close yet so far away , the great thing about this job is there are a million more chances coming your way ,

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #164 (permalink)
Denver, CO
 
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kevinkdog View Post
UUUUUUGGGGGHHHHH! Waiting for the Big One, and almost had it today...


Like every other trader out there, occasionally I come across situations where my entry is almost hit, but isn't. Of course, then the market takes off without me. VERY frustrating. Today was such a day.

Missing an entry by a couple of ticks can be psychologically devastating. It makes you think "my system is good - it just needs a little adjustment," or maybe "the logic is sound, maybe I need to add more rules to my plan" or worse yet "how could my system miss such a great trade? I'm ditching it!" Your mind will think of a million ways to make that "nearly a trade" into "definitely a trade." In the end, your brain might actually think that trade WAS in your strategy - you just missed benefiting from it.

"IF that trade had been made, I'd be in good shape for passing the Combine."


Of course, such thinking is dangerous. Just look at the facts - your strategy did not have that trade. Your backtest would not have had that trade. That "trade" wasn't a trade for you. It is nothing to you.

If you change your strategy to include that trade (maybe by entering a few ticks early, as price approaches your entry price), are you going to review your history, and include all other cases just like this? Maybe then your strategy will actually be worse - who knows?

This situation seems to happen to me a lot when I trade with discretion. With automated systems, though, I don't notice it nearly as much. It still happens, I am sure, but since orders and calculations are being done behind the scenes, it is not as apparent to me.

With the Combine strategy, though, I do see these near misses, since I manually enter each order. Today's "almost" trade was a whopper. I missed a great trade by 2 or 3 ticks. I had a limit order to sell short at 1.3100. The high was 1.3098. So, I was 2, probably 3, ticks away from a fill. As I write this, it would have been a $1,000 winner. $&%^#*@# !!!!!!!!

On one hand, this makes me feel really good about the system - it was oh-so-close to getting a great trade. On the other hand, this fills me with disappointment. Not many whopper trades are out there, and my system just missed a great one.

Really, I should feel neither happiness, nor disappointment. I should feel NOTHING, because nothing happened.


The lesson here is DON'T PLAY THE "IF" GAME. As someone once said, "if 'ifs' were fifths, we'd all be drunk!"



Kevin, your discipline is inspiring!

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #165 (permalink)
Rome, Italy
 
 
Posts: 62 since Feb 2012
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kevinkdog View Post
UUUUUUGGGGGHHHHH! Waiting for the Big One, and almost had it today...


Like every other trader out there, occasionally I come across situations where my entry is almost hit, but isn't. Of course, then the market takes off without me. VERY frustrating. Today was such a day.

Missing an entry by a couple of ticks can be psychologically devastating. It makes you think "my system is good - it just needs a little adjustment," or maybe "the logic is sound, maybe I need to add more rules to my plan" or worse yet "how could my system miss such a great trade? I'm ditching it!" Your mind will think of a million ways to make that "nearly a trade" into "definitely a trade." In the end, your brain might actually think that trade WAS in your strategy - you just missed benefiting from it.

"IF that trade had been made, I'd be in good shape for passing the Combine."


Of course, such thinking is dangerous. Just look at the facts - your strategy did not have that trade. Your backtest would not have had that trade. That "trade" wasn't a trade for you. It is nothing to you.

If you change your strategy to include that trade (maybe by entering a few ticks early, as price approaches your entry price), are you going to review your history, and include all other cases just like this? Maybe then your strategy will actually be worse - who knows?

This situation seems to happen to me a lot when I trade with discretion. With automated systems, though, I don't notice it nearly as much. It still happens, I am sure, but since orders and calculations are being done behind the scenes, it is not as apparent to me.

With the Combine strategy, though, I do see these near misses, since I manually enter each order. Today's "almost" trade was a whopper. I missed a great trade by 2 or 3 ticks. I had a limit order to sell short at 1.3100. The high was 1.3098. So, I was 2, probably 3, ticks away from a fill. As I write this, it would have been a $1,000 winner. $&%^#*@# !!!!!!!!

On one hand, this makes me feel really good about the system - it was oh-so-close to getting a great trade. On the other hand, this fills me with disappointment. Not many whopper trades are out there, and my system just missed a great one.

Really, I should feel neither happiness, nor disappointment. I should feel NOTHING, because nothing happened.


The lesson here is DON'T PLAY THE "IF" GAME. As someone once said, "if 'ifs' were fifths, we'd all be drunk!"



Thanks, Kevin, especially for your honesty in reporting every single gain/loss exactly as it happened.

Tha "if" game is actually one of the most dangerous we can experience in trading.

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  #166 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
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I should point out that I have only mentioned half of the story - what actually happened. It is easy to look at a chart, see where the entry was missed, and wax poetically about what might have been.

BUT, how do we know what would have happened, had I been filled?

I had a limit order to sell short at 1.3100. The high of the day ended up being 1.3098. Maybe, there was a big bank, hedge fund or even central bank trying to keep the price below 1.3100. Possibly they were selling all the way up to 1.3100, to prevent it from ever getting to that point. If it got above 1.3100, maybe they would reverse and go long. Or maybe there were a ton of buyers right above the 1.3100 mark. After all, it is a round number, which many people like.

The fact is we just don't know what would have happened, had the price gone to 1.3100. It might have rocketed to 1.3200 for all we know.

So, what I've found, and what I hope you agree with, is that the sooner I forget about this missed trade, the better. Sure, I can be a little mad about it, a little bummed, but the sooner I let it go, the better off I'll be.

Remember, just stick to the plan!

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  #167 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
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I took no trades today, Thursday. In my late day strategy #3, there was a trade at 3:30 to 4 PM. I missed it, since I was buying my kids some video games. The good news is that it was a small loser, so I avoided making my stats even worse.


Here's the latest graph of "actual" performance and "perfect" performance. "Perfect" performance would be if I got filled on every trade exactly like the Tradestation backtest engine showed.



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  #168 (permalink)
Rome, Italy
 
 
Posts: 62 since Feb 2012
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kevinkdog View Post
the sooner I forget about this missed trade, the better.

Totally agree! We always need to remember that there's (and there will be always) plenty of opportunities in the market.

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  #169 (permalink)
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Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
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Once Again, no trades today, Friday 4/26. Not even close to a trade.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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  #170 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
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kevinkdog View Post
I should point out that I have only mentioned half of the story - what actually happened. It is easy to look at a chart, see where the entry was missed, and wax poetically about what might have been.

BUT, how do we know what would have happened, had I been filled?

I had a limit order to sell short at 1.3100. The high of the day ended up being 1.3098. Maybe, there was a big bank, hedge fund or even central bank trying to keep the price below 1.3100. Possibly they were selling all the way up to 1.3100, to prevent it from ever getting to that point. If it got above 1.3100, maybe they would reverse and go long. Or maybe there were a ton of buyers right above the 1.3100 mark. After all, it is a round number, which many people like.

The fact is we just don't know what would have happened, had the price gone to 1.3100. It might have rocketed to 1.3200 for all we know.

So, what I've found, and what I hope you agree with, is that the sooner I forget about this missed trade, the better. Sure, I can be a little mad about it, a little bummed, but the sooner I let it go, the better off I'll be.

Remember, just stick to the plan!

Kevin
A large barrier option was rumored there. If you trade levels it always paid to place limits ahead of any round number or important high or low because there can be some large interest preventing price from touching the level.
All the best. Alex

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