Kevin's TST Combine Journal - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Kevin's TST Combine Journal
Updated: Views / Replies:52,933 / 460
Created: by kevinkdog Attachments:139

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 139  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Kevin's TST Combine Journal

  #151 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Trovatore View Post
The ratio of the expectancy (average trading day) over the standard deviation is 0.17 in this case.
It's interesting to look at this value from the perspective of Van Tharp's guidelines to system quality. In his book Super Trader, he suggests that a system with a ratio of 0.16-0.19 is 'poor but tradable' (this sounds a bit harsh but that's not my purpose). He considers ratios from 0.2 upwards 'average', 0.25+ 'good', 0.3+ 'excellent', 0.5+ 'superb' and 0.7+ 'Holy Grail'.

This is how I can relate Dr. Tharp's classification to your Combine experience: you have a good reason to think that your system has an edge (it's tradable). It has a positive average trading day, which is a good basis to expect profits in the long run. However the aspect that makes it less than good (in his harsh wording: poor) is that the standard deviation is relatively high. If you could get the same average day with half the standard deviation (bringing the ratio to an excellent 0.34), your 95% range breadth would also be halved. One consequence is that you would need far less trades to see the lower band cross the zero line: exactly the criteria you mentioned as so important to give green light for trading with real money.
As I calculated assuming a normal distribution, it takes almost 100 trades (days) with the ratio of 0.17 for the worst 5% to reach slightly positive profit. With a ratio of 0.34, this 'worst 5% breakeven' would take 24 trades (days). This is quite a difference, and especially so in the context of the Combine, where the first is beyond the end of the Combine period, whereas the second means you would have to be very very unlucky to finish with a loss.

I wonder what is a fair conclusion regarding the decision whether you should trade this strategy with real money. A possible answer: if you are patient enough, you could. However, if you have (or can develop) a strategy which has a better average/StDev ratio, then it's better to use that one and not your current Combine strategy. Though even then, it depends how highly you value the diversification aspect.


You are absolutely right - standard deviation of trades is a super important metric. A small standard deviation makes things so much easier, and really helps in position sizing.

I don't know how Van developed his guidelines for avg/std dev, but the concept (lower std deviations are better) is sound.

I would have no qualms trading this system live if it got close to its average line. I'd accept the variability, and all its other flaws, but it first has to get closer to (or ideally above) the average line.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
 
  #152 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

No trades today, Tuesday.


Although I'm not planning to change my approach or trading at this point, I'm curious what people in the community think.

If you were me right now, knowing all the Combine and backtest info I have posted thus far, what would you do?


A. I'd start trading differently. This strategy is clearly not working.

B. I'd stay the course - keep trading as you are. Don't deviate from the plan

C. I'd just give up right now. No sense prolonging the inevitable failure to pass the Combine.

D. I'd for broke with one last big trade, and if that trade wins, I'd do the minimum necessary to pass the Combine.

E. I'd try to get to slightly positive, and hope to rollover the Combine. I would then trade it with a better strategy, or the same strategy.

F. Something else - another option not listed


There is no right or wrong answer. I just want to gauge how others would react at this point. Feel free to answer with just a letter, or with a detailed explanation.

THANKS!

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
 
  #153 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,354 given, 83,237 received


Personally with so few trades I think it is not possible to make an informed conclusion just yet, unless there was a result that is wildly outside the initial parameters, which does not seem to be the case.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #154 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Nashville, TN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, Optionshouse
Favorite Futures: CL, Options
 
Posts: 4 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

Hey guys, I am new to BigMikes, just curious but has anybody on the site passed the TST combine? I'm not asking because I doubt the combine whatsoever, I am just curious if anyone has managed on here.

Sorry to ask questions on your thread! Good luck with the combine!

Reply With Quote
 
  #155 (permalink)
Elite Member
Budapest, Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Forex
 
Posts: 12 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 50 given, 8 received


kevinkdog View Post

If you were me right now, knowing all the Combine and backtest info I have posted thus far, what would you do?

B. I'd stay the course - keep trading as you are. Don't deviate from the plan.

Explanation: as Mike wrote.

Reply With Quote
 
  #156 (permalink)
Elite Member
Mumbai, India
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Favorite Futures: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
 
iqgod's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,659 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,312 given, 2,719 received


kevinkdog View Post

Although I'm not planning to change my approach or trading at this point, I'm curious what people in the community think.

If you were me right now, knowing all the Combine and backtest info I have posted thus far, what would you do?


A. I'd start trading differently. This strategy is clearly not working.

B. I'd stay the course - keep trading as you are. Don't deviate from the plan

C. I'd just give up right now. No sense prolonging the inevitable failure to pass the Combine.

D. I'd for broke with one last big trade, and if that trade wins, I'd do the minimum necessary to pass the Combine.

E. I'd try to get to slightly positive, and hope to rollover the Combine. I would then trade it with a better strategy, or the same strategy.

F. Something else - another option not listed

B and always B.

Everything else is the opposite of good trading.

In general terms (and not to be taken personally by anybody):

A - Changing horses midstream - generates more uncertainty than it addresses.

C - Speaks about a self-defeatist attitude, lack of faith.

D - Speaks of immaturity and the loss of self-restraint that deviates from professionalism at the most inopportune moment.

E - Speaks of the common sense practicality which is what we use to get though an imperfect world. However if I do B then E will be atleast possible. If I aim for E it will might be the equivalent of reducing one's targets and that is also a change in strategy!

Reply With Quote
 
  #157 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Rome, Italy
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation, TWS (IB), MT4
Broker/Data: Tradestation, IB
Favorite Futures: Futures (QM, CL, ES, grains), Stocks, Forex
 
Albnd's Avatar
 
Posts: 62 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 27 given, 26 received


kevinkdog View Post
No trades today, Tuesday.


Although I'm not planning to change my approach or trading at this point, I'm curious what people in the community think.

If you were me right now, knowing all the Combine and backtest info I have posted thus far, what would you do?


A. I'd start trading differently. This strategy is clearly not working.

B. I'd stay the course - keep trading as you are. Don't deviate from the plan

C. I'd just give up right now. No sense prolonging the inevitable failure to pass the Combine.

D. I'd for broke with one last big trade, and if that trade wins, I'd do the minimum necessary to pass the Combine.

E. I'd try to get to slightly positive, and hope to rollover the Combine. I would then trade it with a better strategy, or the same strategy.

F. Something else - another option not listed


There is no right or wrong answer. I just want to gauge how others would react at this point. Feel free to answer with just a letter, or with a detailed explanation.

THANKS!

B. For sure.

But will give up with the Combine, honestly.

Reply With Quote
 
  #158 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Toronto
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ
 
Posts: 3 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 7 given, 3 received

B. Keep at it.

Reply With Quote
 
  #159 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

No Trades Wednesday April 24

No trades again today, Wednesday April 24.

Right now, I am estimating that I will trade for another 11 days in the Combine, out of the 21 trading days remaining.


Still waiting for the Big Ones - profitable days over $500.

Just stickin' to the plan...

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kevinkdog for this post:
 
  #160 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

The One That Got Away


UUUUUUGGGGGHHHHH! Waiting for the Big One, and almost had it today...


Like every other trader out there, occasionally I come across situations where my entry is almost hit, but isn't. Of course, then the market takes off without me. VERY frustrating. Today was such a day.

Missing an entry by a couple of ticks can be psychologically devastating. It makes you think "my system is good - it just needs a little adjustment," or maybe "the logic is sound, maybe I need to add more rules to my plan" or worse yet "how could my system miss such a great trade? I'm ditching it!" Your mind will think of a million ways to make that "nearly a trade" into "definitely a trade." In the end, your brain might actually think that trade WAS in your strategy - you just missed benefiting from it.

"IF that trade had been made, I'd be in good shape for passing the Combine."


Of course, such thinking is dangerous. Just look at the facts - your strategy did not have that trade. Your backtest would not have had that trade. That "trade" wasn't a trade for you. It is nothing to you.

If you change your strategy to include that trade (maybe by entering a few ticks early, as price approaches your entry price), are you going to review your history, and include all other cases just like this? Maybe then your strategy will actually be worse - who knows?

This situation seems to happen to me a lot when I trade with discretion. With automated systems, though, I don't notice it nearly as much. It still happens, I am sure, but since orders and calculations are being done behind the scenes, it is not as apparent to me.

With the Combine strategy, though, I do see these near misses, since I manually enter each order. Today's "almost" trade was a whopper. I missed a great trade by 2 or 3 ticks. I had a limit order to sell short at 1.3100. The high was 1.3098. So, I was 2, probably 3, ticks away from a fill. As I write this, it would have been a $1,000 winner. $&%^#*@# !!!!!!!!

On one hand, this makes me feel really good about the system - it was oh-so-close to getting a great trade. On the other hand, this fills me with disappointment. Not many whopper trades are out there, and my system just missed a great one.

Really, I should feel neither happiness, nor disappointment. I should feel NOTHING, because nothing happened.


The lesson here is DON'T PLAY THE "IF" GAME. As someone once said, "if 'ifs' were fifths, we'd all be drunk!"


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to kevinkdog for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Kevin's TST Combine Journal

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Yiehom's TST combine yiehom Elite Trading Journals 37 August 6th, 2017 01:16 PM
TST Combine Journal indextrader7 Trading Journals 556 August 28th, 2014 01:16 AM
Josh's TST Combine Journal josh Elite Trading Journals 106 April 9th, 2013 10:36 PM
Poc's Trading Journal, TST combine Pocwave Elite Trading Journals 4 March 4th, 2013 09:58 AM
Surly's TST Combine Surly Elite Trading Journals 144 February 16th, 2013 03:33 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:33 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-16 in 0.16 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.226.113.250