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Kevin's TST Combine Journal


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Kevin's TST Combine Journal

  #101 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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My Strategies, Part 4 of 4

I am guessing no trades today, so I'll finish the discussion on how I developed my Combine strategy...

part 1 is located here:


part 2 is located here:


part 3 is located here:



Last time I described my primary strategy. I intended for it to be my only strategy for the Combine, but there were a few problems with it:

1. It was profitable, but not profitable enough to pass the 20 day Combine

2. Its winning percentage was below 50%, which would not pass the Combine

3. It would trade less than the required 20 days in the 2 month Combine, so it might not even qualify for review


Since I only had about one and a half weeks left for development, until the Combine start, I decided to create 2 other strategies to trade along with the primary strategy. These strategies would trade at different times than the primary strategy. They would trade overnight, or late afternoon.

The goal in developing these strategies was NOT to maximize profit, but rather to help me meet the 3 shortcomings I had identified above.

I accomplished this by creating 2 unique mean reverting strategies, both of which primarily have small profit targets and larger stop losses. The overnight strategy is the better of the two, with a win rate around 75%. It is also profitable, but the win percentage and the trade frequency are what really make it useful to the Combine.

After a few days of trying some various SIMPLE things, I was able to create these 2 additional strategies (although I was, and still am, worried, that I rushed development a bit too much).

With a few days to spare, I WAS READY TO COMBINE!!!

**********************************************

That wraps up my discussion on my Combine strategies. If you read all 4 posts of this subject in a row, I hope you understand the main point I was trying to get across: you really have to develop a strategy that meets your goals and objectives. This is super important, not just for the Combine, but for any kind of trading you do.

That is why determining your goals and objectives is so important. Without knowing where you want to go, you will really have a tough time getting there!

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  #102 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Experience: Advanced
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Combine, Day 11

Day 11 of the Combine


Late trade with my primary strategy today. Cost me $200 in an hour.


It just got tougher to pass the Combine...




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  #103 (permalink)
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Just an idea about the winning day %.

On days when you don't have a trade (according to plan), you should still throw in a small trade until you are green for the day. Why? Because that helps with your winning day % statistics. If in the next few days you get a few consecutive losing days, that could mess up your stats. So a day when you could have made a small but winning trade but you decided not to trade is basicly wasted on that parameter....

I know it is not according to your plan, but you do have to trade according to the rules of the Combine, and imagine if you couldn't qualify for the redo, just because 1-2 of your (relatively easily fixed) stats is red....

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  #104 (permalink)
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Pedro40 View Post
Just an idea about the winning day %.

On days when you don't have a trade (according to plan), you should still throw in a small trade until you are green for the day. Why? Because that helps with your winning day % statistics. If in the next few days you get a few consecutive losing days, that could mess up your stats. So a day when you could have made a small but winning trade but you decided not to trade is basicly wasted on that parameter....

I know it is not according to your plan, but you do have to trade according to the rules of the Combine, and imagine if you couldn't qualify for the redo, just because 1-2 of your (relatively easily fixed) stats is red....

I see and and understand your point. For me, part of this experiment was seeing if I could design a system that meets all the Combine requirements, including winning day %. If it holds true to historical results, the profit should be the tough parameter to meet.

So, I'm inclined to just let it play out as designed, and see what happens.

I have a sneaky suspicion that if I do not pass, there will be more than one criteria I fail.

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  #105 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
I have a sneaky suspicion that if I do not pass, there will be more than one criteria I fail.

For sure. You are allowed to miss 1 parameter.... Mine is usually the average loser being too big...

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  #106 (permalink)
Boulder, CO/USA
 
 
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kevinkdog View Post
I see and and understand your point. For me, part of this experiment was seeing if I could design a system that meets all the Combine requirements, including winning day %. If it holds true to historical results, the profit should be the tough parameter to meet.

So, I'm inclined to just let it play out as designed, and see what happens.

I have a sneaky suspicion that if I do not pass, there will be more than one criteria I fail.

Kevin if you don't pass this combine, do you have any plans to enter another one? I've found the information and processes you are sharing to be very helpful.

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  #107 (permalink)
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chambemk View Post
Kevin if you don't pass this combine, do you have any plans to enter another one? I've found the information and processes you are sharing to be very helpful.

I'm glad this thread is helping you.

I am unsure if I would do another one. I am currently working on a handful of strategies that could be traded in the Combine, since developing strict intraday systems is something new and challenging for me. Maybe there will be one I like enough to run in a combine.

One thing I would try to do differently is to trade to the "after" combine rules, which includes a weekly stop loss, a 10 day rolling average requirement and a trailing stop requirement. I did not use any of these requirements in my initial design, so if I do pass the Combine, I'm not sure I'd pass the "after" combine anyway.

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  #108 (permalink)
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Pedro40 View Post
For sure. You are allowed to miss 1 parameter.... Mine is usually the average loser being too big...

I'm not sure why that particular metric is important, if all others are met, but I would assume the TST did some sort of statistical analysis of winning traders, and determined that average loser was indeed important.

Good luck with your next one!

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  #109 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post

One thing I would try to do differently is to trade to the "after" combine rules, which includes a weekly stop loss, a 10 day rolling average requirement and a trailing stop requirement. I did not use any of these requirements in my initial design, so if I do pass the Combine, I'm not sure I'd pass the "after" combine anyway.

I've never seen anything about the 10 day rolling average requirement or the trailing stop requirement. Can you provide a link to where you saw that? thanks.

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  #110 (permalink)
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chambemk View Post
I've never seen anything about the 10 day rolling average requirement or the trailing stop requirement. Can you provide a link to where you saw that? thanks.

I don't think it was on their site. I think Josh's Combine thread here had some info.

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