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  #1 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Hello all,

Yes, another CL trading journal. She seems to be a popular date among traders these days, despite her mood swings and violent temper at times - actually reminds me of some of my more interesting relationships from my past!

My purpose for this journal?

Reason #1 - I have reached a pretty comfortable place in my trading, but there is something to be said for "exposing" oneself on a public forum ( don't take that the wrong way - no, I am not wearing a trench coat). Anyone who has been trading for any length of time has probably found themselves in severe draw down situations, bouts of revenge trading, breaking of rules, taking crazy risks, etc, though happily I can say that is something I have been able to control much better these days. But, a swift kick in the ass my forum members in certain situations can certainly be a good thing if needed.

Reason #2 - Honestly, this is a strange business, unlike any other. People who trade understand all the ups and downs, stresses and satisfaction, that non-traders really can't understand. You have to have a little bit of an oddness about you to stare at a screen with weird little colored bars and squiggly lines for hours on end. But, I have loved it since I was exposed to it - wow, 13+ years ago! I am feeling my age! - and I have seen a great community here at futures.io (formerly BMT), and felt it was time to join all the great people here.

Reason #3 - In the years I have been trading, I have probably seen or tried just about every method of trading and instrument out there, or at least it feels like it. I have also come across many different types of traders who all trade in their unique ways. I have spent the thousands of $$'s (yes, thousands) that many have spent on books, trading manuals, systems, signal services, and chat rooms, that of course, I could not make work consistently, or at all. I was angry at myself, vendors, traders, pretty much everyone about all the time and money spent for no result. But, I eventually realized, every step of that "journey", showed me something. Maybe it was a hundred things that didn't work - maybe a little piece of this method stuck in my head, or a couple of pages of that book that helped me come around much later - all of it had a purpose.

So, there is a term of "paying it forward". Let me throw something out there right now - I am absolutely NOT some type of market or trading guru, and I make far, far more mistakes everyday than correct decisions. But, if maybe a few things I post out here help someone, then it is worth the effort. However, there are no holy grails here - I know that even if I laid out a step by step roadmap to trading, it isn't going to work for anyone else - everyone has to find their own way.

Would love to see this as a "helping" thread for anyone trading CL - have something to say, ideas, thoughts - post it.

More to come.......

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  #3 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Figured a trading journal without any actual.....well, trading displayed, probably wouldn't be very interesting. So, my trade in the wee hours of the morning, since I don't see anything going at the moment.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Maelstrom View Post
Figured a trading journal without any actual.....well, trading displayed, probably wouldn't be very interesting. So, my trade in the wee hours of the morning, since I don't see anything going at the moment.


Did you go long or short? And you have your Dynamic Pivots set to only display the high and low of the day....the other pivots are transparent. I'm assuming you don't use the other fib levels?????????????

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  #5 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Did you go long or short? And you have your Dynamic Pivots set to only display the high and low of the day....the other pivots are transparent. I'm assuming you don't use the other fib levels?????????????

Actually laughed after reading your post.... and reviewing mine - so much for clarity in my posting!

Long entry on that one.... guess I should turn on the trade indicators, but I hate a cluttered chart and prefer drawing things in manually.

And no, no fib levels..... all I have is current day high/low, and previous days info. Other than that, just trading price action.

I will try to be clearer on future posts and images, as well as provide some info on the why's as I see them. Though I won't be trading tonight/tomorrow due to having to attend to my other business, I will try to post charts and trades prior to or as realtime as possible when I can.

Thanks,
M

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  #6 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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As I mentioned yesterday, unable to trade today, but after getting home, thought I would take a look at the day and see how I think it would have gone. Again, nothing on these charts was taken live today.... just reviewing.

Not sure that this was the most ideal type of day for me.... would have started right off the bat with a loss, then the second trade would have left a lot on the table, which is fine, and then the last one pretty spot on.

I am going to mark up the charts a bit more in depth later to show why I would have taken the trades where I did.

Hope everyone had a productive day.....
M

Morning....



and afternoon.


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  #7 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Long day yesterday, and after passing out early waking up at 2am to check the charts, I didn't see anything worth staying awake for. May have been a good thing as I would have had a small loser this morning.

Currently long from 94.39, stop loss at 94.17 and target currently at 94.89, though that may change.... a bit choppy for me so far, so may bring that to a more conservative area.

Orange arrows showing the pattern I look for - low, lower low, higher low for longs.

M


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  #8 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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... for -22 ticks.

Still a good trade, wouldn't have changed anything on that one.

Waiting on the next setup now

M

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  #9 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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at 94.10

M


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  #10 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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...to 94.28.

Anticipating some hesitation at 93.90 area - hopefully, only hesitation

M


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  #11 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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1000 tick chart....

Uptrend obviously.... a break of that level should be a good sign for the downside. But, who knows.... will let it play out as it will.

M



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  #12 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Kinda hope not, or at least that it doesn't make a third high. If it does, that will take me out of this one.

Has come within a few ticks of doing that already, but as always, will let it play out as it will. Hindsight, entry was poor, but that is where the entry was for me. Key thing I have learned over the years is stick to the plan, or rather, the original reason for entering a trade. No panicking! (at least not too much)

M


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  #13 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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And a Mini-Me channel

I used to use channels, trend lines, triangles, pennants, etc, and found it was way too easy to fit what I wanted to see into them. Please keep in mind I am not bashing these patterns by any means - they do exist, they do have significance, and there are many great traders that use them with incredible success. I just know myself well enough to know I will find what I WANT to see when in a trade, so I use them as a reinforcement of the other things I am seeing.

M


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  #14 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Notes on chart

M


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  #15 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Out 93.92

Long and drawn out, and not the exact result I was looking for, but I will take it.

Long pattern at the bottom there, but the last low I marked up breached the low just prior to that one, so no go on that one.


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  #16 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Took a very stupid long about 30 mins ago (no confirmation) that smacked me for -13. Now in a short from 93.58.

Focusing on not making any more dumb mistakes..... charts later.

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  #17 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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at 93.18

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  #18 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Short from 93.28, stop 93.42

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  #19 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
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.... out at 92.78, but what the hell was that price movement?? Scared the crap out of me!

And think I am done for the day.

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  #20 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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First, found out that trading and trying to post "real time" is not an easy, or recommended thing to do.

Took what I would call a bad trade late morning that I shouldn't have.... not going to blame it on posting, just a mistake.

Overall, this day was a very very tough one for me. 6 trades is wayyyy more than what I normally like to have to get to end my day, but, after yesterday, I suppose it was expected.

Trades

Short -20 Did not take this one, but should have if I had started my day at the normal time, so I am including it.
Long -22 Just one that turned, nothing to be done on this one.
Short +18 Gave back a WHOLE lot on this one, but still turned out positive.
Long -13 Just a careless trade - could have turned out much worse.
Short +40 Finally.
Short +50 And done....

+53 total (+73 for missing the first loss of the day) - I'll take it

Didn't like the draw down today, but actually, kind of glad it was not what I would consider a good day, since I was trying to journal everything as it was happening.

Not really sure if anyone was following along today, or if it served any purpose for anyone other than me, but there it is. Hope everyone had a good day trading.

M

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  #21 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Two closed trades thus far: -24 and -16

Currently in short from 93.31



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  #22 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
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1000 tick chart showing a double top.... lets see if it is a sign for a downturn


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  #23 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
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+40. Flat and even for the day/

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  #24 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
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....from 92.92, stop 93.20, target 92.41


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  #25 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
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Stop at 92.99

This may be a good place for an exit, but this close to the low from yesterday, have to believe it is going to visit it now.


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  #26 (permalink)
 roreilly 
Milwaukee WI
 
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Thank you for posting, I am very much enjoying your journal. Please keep it up. I have two questions: 1. What would say is your entry trigger? and 2. Do you use fixed .50 targets or targets based on previous support/resistance? Thanks again and please keep it up.

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  #27 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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roreilly View Post
Thank you for posting, I am very much enjoying your journal. Please keep it up. I have two questions: 1. What would say is your entry trigger? and 2. Do you use fixed .50 targets or targets based on previous support/resistance? Thanks again and please keep it up.

@roreilly,

Thanks for following and the interest.

I will answer your questions and go a little more in depth tonight.... had to head out early today for business, but will check in later tonight.

M

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  #28 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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...pretty bad one, +15, which was my net for the day. Had to leave after that, so no more trades for me today.

Might have been a good thing.... looks like it went pretty much sideways for an hour after that, and then launched again.

Overall perspective on the day on the 250t chart...



and longer timeframe on the 1000t.


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  #29 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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roreilly View Post
Thank you for posting, I am very much enjoying your journal. Please keep it up. I have two questions: 1. What would say is your entry trigger? and 2. Do you use fixed .50 targets or targets based on previous support/resistance? Thanks again and please keep it up.

Lets go with #2 first regarding targets. I will start by saying I am like most - targets and exits are my biggest struggle. A simple reversal to an opposite signal does not work for me because it gives back to much except for the biggest of moves, so I find I have to set a target.

My default or initial target on most trades is 50 ticks - I would like to say there is some in depth analysis that has gone into that, but it really comes down to my observations that there are usually at least a couple of swings on a daily basis that are 50+, and a couple of those can make a lot of negative trades unimportant.

But I do adjust targets based on many things.... the pattern "quality" that initiated the trade, overall market direction, upcoming news, key levels such as prev day highs/lows, and some support and resistance areas. But, I also try not to over think it, and honestly, try to stick with the bigger targets as opposed to cutting a trade short due to panic or wanting to bank some $$. Sometimes it turns on me and I give a whole lot back, but there is always another trade around the corner.

Not sure if that was a good answer to your question, but it was the most honest one I could give!

I will go into trade triggers on the next post....

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  #30 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Ok, I will try to explain this as clearly as possible, and have no doubt will fail miserably, but here goes.....

Will use short triggers as the example here for simplicity - the reverse holds true for longs.

The quickest explanation is this - I look for the highest high bar in an upswing (don't care if it is an up or down bar), and the entry is the third consecutive lower bar from there.

Damn, this may be harder to explain than I thought.... the highest high bar has to have a bar break it's low... then one has to break the low of that bar.... then one has to break the low of that one, and that is the trigger.

Here, I will leave it to the pics to see if that helps at all....

My chart as I had it today first....




And zoomed in with come bar notations and counts....




See? Clear as mud!

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  #31 (permalink)
 CoopersCorner 
Santa Fe, New Mexico
 
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Interesting stuff...

Noticed you lurking at my thread and thought I'd see what you're up to... you remind me of me and how I used to trade several years ago... I am going to enjoy reading your work!

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  #32 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
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CoopersCorner View Post
Interesting stuff...

Noticed you lurking at my thread and thought I'd see what you're up to... you remind me of me and how I used to trade several years ago... I am going to enjoy reading your work!

Uh oh....."how I used to trade several years ago" - that sounds like it didn't work!

I appreciate the look.... I have been watching your journal, and have found it very interesting so far. I couldn't help noticing that the one chart you posted with the notations is not too far from what I am looking for in my trades - consolidation zones are often times pullbacks depending on the timeframe or bar size lense you look through.

Hoping to get back to posting more in the journal... work has kept me away since last Wed, and will continue to at least through this week. But please feel free to provide any insights here, and I certainly look forward to following your journal.

Thanks

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  #33 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
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Would have been an amazing day.... had I been trading today.

As I do everyday that I can't trade, when I get home, review the charts for what it would have/could have/should have been. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and no way to get all of this, but have no doubt it would have been a great day.

There will be many more (and the bad one's too, like a couple of days last week!) Can't wait to get these projects over with so I can get back to trading full time again.




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  #34 (permalink)
 Maelstrom 
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....so let me show you what I saw Friday.

In short, Friday was a shit day. 3 losses (for me) right out of the gate.... and these were 18-25+ tick losers a piece.

A day like that is what used to send me into the weekend going through 127 different indicators, searching for the magic price levels in the market or that special geometry that would unlock the Grail. Thankfully, now I know there isn't one.

There will be good days and there will be not so good days.... the key for me has been finding a method that I have faith in, and that works for me more often than not. Will this change? Probably. When/if it does, I will adapt, but for now, I will follow the course and work the plan.


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 peterg 
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I'm not really following your entries on your chart. Are they pure price swing break continuation trades? If you're trading through Ninja why not use the trade display? Rt clck in Data Series/Trades /Plot Executions.

I know the triple knee capping out of the gate feeling, You have to play that as the comeback kid;
Play back/Sim at the same daily time slot is a solid sync therapy here.

Also if your 3 losers are on the same side of the market..you may be bring in a bias.

Are you minding typical price pattern completions? 3's, 5's and measured and extended moves and retracements?

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peterg View Post
I'm not really following your entries on your chart. Are they pure price swing break continuation trades? If you're trading through Ninja why not use the trade display? Rt clck in Data Series/Trades /Plot Executions.

I know the triple knee capping out of the gate feeling, You have to play that as the comeback kid;
Play back/Sim at the same daily time slot is a solid sync therapy here.

Also if your 3 losers are on the same side of the market..you may be bring in a bias.

Are you minding typical price pattern completions? 3's, 5's and measured and extended moves and retracements?

@peterg,

I explained my entries (probably very poorly on my part) earlier in the thread.... basically, third break of the highest high/lowest low bar on a lower/higher swing.

There won't be any executions on the charts for the last few days.... haven't been trading, and with the amount of time spending on work, I unfortunately can't spend the hours trading on sim for the previous day - at least not at normal speed.

As I mentioned with my recent chart posts, just eyeballing the days action - the patterns and entries I use are pretty mechanical, so it makes it fairly easy to identify the entries for me. Again, everything in hindsight is extremely easy, but I do hold myself accountable for the good trades and the not so good ones. With that said, all sorts of wonderful and horrible things happen with live trading - slippage, missed entries/exits, fear and greed, breaking of one's rules. I simply like looking back on the days I don't trade to help keep myself in sync with the market, and to continuously reinforce my "rules" so I don't get rusty or creative.

"Triple knee capping" - love that one! Yes, it is tough to recover and not trade recklessly after a start like that.

Regarding bias.... something I have been looking into for some time now. I have been looking closely at some simple ideas such as taking the second signal only on a direction/trend change, or comparing the signal pattern to the previous to see if it is a higher or lower formation in relation to the last. Right now, just keeping notes on my observations to see if there is a consistent improvement in implementing these ideas. I have to say my thinking now is that with CL, I have seen it turn so quickly and ferociously from a trend in the past, trading only in an established trend direction may keep me out of the one trade that I have been looking for that day to make up for any previous losing trades.

As for price pattern completions - the 3's and 5's you mentioned and such - I assume you are referencing Elliot Wave principles or something similar. I have studied those pretty extensively, as well as fib retracements and extensions, wolfe waves, , volume analysis, divergence, candlestick patterns, endless chart patterns like flags and pennants, etc. Honestly, I have never been able to get any of these things to work consistently for me - or maybe a better statement is, I have never felt enough confidence in these things to make them work consistently for me.

Of course, I see many of these things on a daily basis.... channels and other chart patterns show up every day.... certain "waves" of directional moves are so much stronger than others.... all those things are real and usable. I have a tremendous amount of respect and admiration for traders that utilize their knowledge with all these things day in and day out - it just isn't me, at least not at this point in my journey.

With that being said, I like to think of myself as an eternal student - I enjoy going through threads here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and looking at new ideas and methods and challenging myself to try and understand what others are seeing and doing. So.... thank you for your post, and if you have any insights or thoughts you would like to share, please do so - I am sure they will help me and possibly others out there.

Thanks,
M

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@peterg,

I explained my entries (probably very poorly on my part) earlier in the thread.... basically, third break of the highest high/lowest low bar on a lower/higher swing.

There won't be any executions on the charts for the last few days.... haven't been trading, and with the amount of time spending on work, I unfortunately can't spend the hours trading on sim for the previous day - at least not at normal speed.

As I mentioned with my recent chart posts, just eyeballing the days action - the patterns and entries I use are pretty mechanical, so it makes it fairly easy to identify the entries for me. Again, everything in hindsight is extremely easy, but I do hold myself accountable for the good trades and the not so good ones. With that said, all sorts of wonderful and horrible things happen with live trading - slippage, missed entries/exits, fear and greed, breaking of one's rules. I simply like looking back on the days I don't trade to help keep myself in sync with the market, and to continuously reinforce my "rules" so I don't get rusty or creative.

"Triple knee capping" - love that one! Yes, it is tough to recover and not trade recklessly after a start like that.

Regarding bias.... something I have been looking into for some time now. I have been looking closely at some simple ideas such as taking the second signal only on a direction/trend change, or comparing the signal pattern to the previous to see if it is a higher or lower formation in relation to the last. Right now, just keeping notes on my observations to see if there is a consistent improvement in implementing these ideas. I have to say my thinking now is that with CL, I have seen it turn so quickly and ferociously from a trend in the past, trading only in an established trend direction may keep me out of the one trade that I have been looking for that day to make up for any previous losing trades.

As for price pattern completions - the 3's and 5's you mentioned and such - I assume you are referencing Elliot Wave principles or something similar. I have studied those pretty extensively, as well as fib retracements and extensions, wolfe waves, , volume analysis, divergence, candlestick patterns, endless chart patterns like flags and pennants, etc. Honestly, I have never been able to get any of these things to work consistently for me - or maybe a better statement is, I have never felt enough confidence in these things to make them work consistently for me.

Of course, I see many of these things on a daily basis.... channels and other chart patterns show up every day.... certain "waves" of directional moves are so much stronger than others.... all those things are real and usable. I have a tremendous amount of respect and admiration for traders that utilize their knowledge with all these things day in and day out - it just isn't me, at least not at this point in my journey.

With that being said, I like to think of myself as an eternal student - I enjoy going through threads here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and looking at new ideas and methods and challenging myself to try and understand what others are seeing and doing. So.... thank you for your post, and if you have any insights or thoughts you would like to share, please do so - I am sure they will help me and possibly others out there.

Thanks,
M

I see. Thanks for the clarification.
In Strong Implusive or Momentum reversals your 3rd bar closing beyond last swing will be more profitable than it would be in Ranging or Corrective moves, since here you'll be entering too late and more likely to be stopped out; because by the time you get the trigger to enter the move is likely to reverse.(Maybe if you shifted down to the 133 or 89 tick for corrective moves and shortened the target exit this would work .)

How can I make such gross generalization? Because your trigger/entry is a momentum continuation trade.
This would work great for currencies, but bad with whippy volatility in anything.

Knowing Context is critical. I'm not taking so much THAT anal Elliot...but its an easy fib wave count 1,2,3,5,8

Look at Fridays 1st trade. From a low you had 5 waves up, the anticipated retracement / correction is 3 wave's down abc... where you shorted "in the hole" 3bars close beyond the A swing low. You should be thinking "buy "C" low for a retest/or extension beyond previous wave 5 top that was the end of the markets proven 1st impulsive long.

Then the second was a long I believe after a break of 3rd wave end.... banking on a wave 5 continuation.
But 3rd waves are the bulk of the trend move, and wave 5 is = to wave 1 or typically .62 of wave 3. So you're late again with not much more upside potential... so you're buying the top. Your waiting for the market to prove itself again when it already had with the first 5 wave run before your first trade. You needed to buy a break of wave 1 pivot after a higher low end of wave 2...and ride w3.

The 3rd trade.... again you waiting for the move to happen and jumping in late.(Maybe you need a reversal reaction trigger trade after a higher low(here and 2nd trade) or a lower high (on reversal top out)

Both the last two wins were hairball close.... just getting out before reversal (if I'm reading these trade entries correctly) So late again ...but profitable. I must say I'd be sweating these entries.

You appear to be trading conservatively by waiting... instead of having a trigger on the pulse of CL within its patterned context....

So your cool in strong trends...which only typically occurs 30-35% of the time; but still you dont need to have such conservative entries under strong momentum conditions, since you'll miss a chunk of ticks before the breakout.

Typically the mantra in trends is "buy/ add on the dip/pullback and ultimately sell exhaustion after max extention."

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peterg View Post
I see. Thanks for the clarification.
In Strong Implusive or Momentum reversals your 3rd bar closing beyond last swing will be more profitable than it would be in Ranging or Corrective moves, since here you'll be entering too late and more likely to be stopped out; because by the time you get the trigger to enter the move is likely to reverse.(Maybe if you shifted down to the 133 or 89 tick for corrective moves and shortened the target exit this would work .)

How can I make such gross generalization? Because your trigger/entry is a momentum continuation trade.
This would work great for currencies, but bad with whippy volatility in anything.

Knowing Context is critical. I'm not taking so much THAT anal Elliot...but its an easy fib wave count 1,2,3,5,8

Look at Fridays 1st trade. From a low you had 5 waves up, the anticipated retracement / correction is 3 wave's down abc... where you shorted "in the hole" 3bars close beyond the A swing low. You should be thinking "buy "C" low for a retest/or extension beyond previous wave 5 top that was the end of the markets proven 1st impulsive long.

Then the second was a long I believe after a break of 3rd wave end.... banking on a wave 5 continuation.
But 3rd waves are the bulk of the trend move, and wave 5 is = to wave 1 or typically .62 of wave 3. So you're late again with not much more upside potential... so you're buying the top. Your waiting for the market to prove itself again when it already had with the first 5 wave run before your first trade. You needed to buy a break of wave 1 pivot after a higher low end of wave 2...and ride w3.

The 3rd trade.... again you waiting for the move to happen and jumping in late.(Maybe you need a reversal reaction trigger trade after a higher low(here and 2nd trade) or a lower high (on reversal top out)

Both the last two wins were hairball close.... just getting out before reversal (if I'm reading these trade entries correctly) So late again ...but profitable. I must say I'd be sweating these entries.

You appear to be trading conservatively by waiting... instead of having a trigger on the pulse of CL within its patterned context....

So your cool in strong trends...which only typically occurs 30-35% of the time; but still you dont need to have such conservative entries under strong momentum conditions, since you'll miss a chunk of ticks before the breakout.

Typically the mantra in trends is "buy/ add on the dip/pullback and ultimately sell exhaustion after max extention."

@peterg,

Interesting post... I will admit, my first read through prompted immediate thoughts of "oh no, it IS Elliot raising his confusing head again!".

Couple more read throughs however, and I see the value there. I will respond a little more in depth later on, but I wanted to post my chart with what I believe are your views of the waves and corrections from Friday morning.... please let me know if those are correct.

Thanks!


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Hello,

Interesting thread, I will follow it. I mostly trade CL and recently (yesterday) started to trade with Mirus Futures.
I also started to post it but in a Spanish forum in Spanish.

Good luck

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 roreilly 
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I am also enjoying your thread. I am no fan of Elliot waves, especially on CL.

Have you read Trading Chaos by Bill Williams. He discussed fractals, and how to trade them. His approach seems very similar to yours, and considering his method started with an Elliott wave analysis, you may find his book clarifying in some respects. Thanks again for your journal.

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 Maelstrom 
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I am also enjoying your thread. I am no fan of Elliot waves, especially on CL.

Have you read Trading Chaos by Bill Williams. He discussed fractals, and how to trade them. His approach seems very similar to yours, and considering his method started with an Elliott wave analysis, you may find his book clarifying in some respects. Thanks again for your journal.

Yes, have not been a fan of Elliot either - mostly because I just haven't been able to make it work for me, as well as seeing people who use it constantly adjusting the waves when they don't pan out as they thought they would (which I guess is what trading is - constant adjustment)

But @peterg brought up some interesting ideas and observations, and as he said, he isn't using Elliot specifically. I am looking forward to the continued comments.

I have read Bill William's book - actually have it here somewhere among the other 100 or so trading books I have bought over the years. No doubt some of his concepts have impacted my trading, as obviously my trading is based on fractals to a degree. May have to dig it out again and give it another review.

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 peterg 
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@peterg,

Interesting post... I will admit, my first read through prompted immediate thoughts of "oh no, it IS Elliot raising his confusing head again!".

Couple more read throughs however, and I see the value there. I will respond a little more in depth later on, but I wanted to post my chart with what I believe are your views of the waves and corrections from Friday morning.... please let me know if those are correct.

Thanks!


And I i'm no Fan of exact Elliott counts either...just the basics. 5 trend waves(1,2,3,4,5) followed by 3 corrective
waves (abc). Action / Reaction. Impulsive swings show little retracement while typically corrective show more overlap consolidation and deeper or full retracement

The reason for use is just for quick context, since this is pure price action trading...just count the swings...look left and anticipate to the right. And you are definitely concluding with a bias for your actions

This is fast and dirty Elliott.... the numbers depict the trend and lead direction while the letters are the corrective phase and offer entry opportunity as pullbacks to get long.
They are fractal in nature...they display swing ratios through out both Extensions and Retracements(not shown but proportionally visible.)



I think this is taking it a bit overboard....




Even if the five waves you count are actually corrective abcde, theory of alternation suggest 3 to follow or 5

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 Maelstrom 
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.... you need to have belief in your methods.

Again, no trading today, but easy to see the setups.

1st trade - loss of 15 ticks
2nd trade - loss of 16 ticks
3rd trade - gain of 9 ticks, but was at a max of +30
4th trade - MFE of 101 ticks


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 Maelstrom 
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peterg View Post
And I i'm no Fan of exact Elliott counts either...just the basics. 5 trend waves(1,2,3,4,5) followed by 3 corrective
waves (abc). Action / Reaction. Impulsive swings show little retracement while typically corrective show more overlap consolidation and deeper or full retracement.....

Think I am going to need a bit to absorb all that - thanks for the explanation!

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 mongoose 
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Do you determine your swing points manually or are they auto plotted on your chart?

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Do you determine your swing points manually or are they auto plotted on your chart?

Manually.

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 Maelstrom 
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Long trade from 95.92

M


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 Maelstrom 
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Stop moved up to 95.82

Inventories in an hour - let's see what happens

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 Maelstrom 
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-11 ticks.

Next!

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 Maelstrom 
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Chart attached. Had a couple of requests for chart markers - don't like having them on because they clutter the chart, but there you go.

20 mins to Inventories.... will see where price is at before that and decide whether to exit or not.

M


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 Maelstrom 
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too risky.

Looking like right direction, just bad timing.

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 peterg 
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But the context of the sideways market says quicker range scalps...until a break of entire range


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 Maelstrom 
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peterg View Post
But the context of the sideways market says quicker range scalps...until a break of entire range


@peterg,

Ah, I can see now, I have not been clear on my entries at all.... I will go into more detail on those tonight when I get back home.

As for the first trade.... good catch! I was hoping someone would mention that one. My entry signal was actually a couple of swings back - I just didn't want to get into a new position that close to the open, so decided to wait until/if price came back to my level.

Thanks
M

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 Maelstrom 
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@peterg,

Was planning (and still am) to clarify a few things with my trading, and found it is quite a bit more difficult to try to explain something than actually doing it. Of course, not that you or anyone else here needs my super wonderful holy grail road to riches method of trading, but figured if I am going to post to a journal, some explanation would probably be a good thing. Going to take a day or so to figure out the best way to put that forward, if there is even any interest out there.

Did want to say thanks by the way.... your annotated chart you had posted with the "waves" has had me looking at the market from a different perspective. Probably won't change my trading from what it is now, but it might just add a few things for me that might make me a better trader.

So...... thanks!

M

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 Maelstrom 
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Notes on chart - shouldn't have traded earlier in the day knowing that I wouldn't be able to trade the whole day, and took a small loss for the day.



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 peterg 
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Breaks of these smaller minor internal or inside swings can be just a lot of rotation churn, that by nature cycles back against an optimistic entry.

The larger outside swings bring in new prices , stop running and participation / interest.

Once this Double Bottom sets up...it is just so obvious..... that discount buying/accumulation as close to the defined risk line is a Classic Grandma Trade 1:4 R/R with target at full retracement to previous swing high.


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 Maelstrom 
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I promised myself I would keep up this journal, regardless of my schedule, so - here it is. Don't know if it is providing any value to anyone but myself, but that is good enough.

Work obligations have been extreme, but, as always, going back over the day. In one word, today was shit. Not as bad as last Thursday, but going into a holiday weekend, anyone trading that day is probably either an absolute lunatic, or has balls of steel.

As noted on my chart, the best trade of the day was the first one in the overnight - not unusual in my opinion for Sunday evenings/Monday mornings. Otherwise, the whole day hinged on one trade.


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 Maelstrom 
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So, been working my butt off for the last 13 days straight - finally have a day off Sunday (yesterday). No kids, nothing to do but relax, so what do I decide to do - that's right! Look at charts!

Sigh.... sad sometimes.

Anyway... decided to look at refining entries and stops. Why you ask? Because there is an evil little voice in my head that has taunted me for over 10 years!

"You can do better" it whispers at me..... "There is a way to get 100% winning trades" Or "Think what if you could make 100+ ticks everyday". Yes, it is evil....

So, decided to look at zooming in to a 80t chart for entries and stops. Wasn't really looking to trade differently from what I do now - same method, just....better. Something to note here.... I do not like multiple timeframe trading. Nothing wrong with it, lots of people do it, just not for me other than looking at a longer term chart at the end of the day to see the general direction of things. But of course... spent hours looking into it anyway.

Looked over 2 weeks of charts, and for a good portion of the days, it would have helped. Stops/losses would have been tighter, entries a little bit better, looks like the way to go. But then.....

Once I really drilled down into it, I saw that on a lot of days, it worked better, BUT, there were some days where I missed a key trade or got stopped out way to early on what would have been the money trade. Result - more losing days than winning, and surprisingly, less profit at the end of the period.

I am bringing this up for a couple of reasons:

First - one should have faith and confidence in what they are doing. In other words, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Second - perfection is not needed, but consistency is.

Third - keep an open mind, and explore other ways

Wait a minute, what the hell was #3!? This post was all about not changing things, right? The evil voice!

Yes, but my experience is this - once you think you have the market figured out perfectly, the bitch will change it up on you. Maybe it is for a day, maybe a week, maybe a decade. I had posted earlier in the thread, my trading has been working out well for me for some time now, but I am firm believer that will not always be the case. When it has PROVEN to me that my way is no longer working, I will adapt and kick her ass once more.

The moral to this story is for anyone out there who is struggling (all of us at certain times) - look at all options, but not to change things on a whim without an overwhelmingly strong and proven reason to do so. That is why I love it when someone like @peterg posts his charts - gets me thinking and looking at different options.

End of sermon.... and thinking I shouldn't have had that second martini prior to posting tonight!

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 peterg 
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They'll keep buying the pull backs until proven wrong then they'll sell the rallies until proven wrong.

Keep doing what works...but understand bigger picture...why it works ie with in Context.

I see you pressing trades into exhaustion a few too many times; this contunuation breakout works in strong momentum only to the point of trend exhaustion

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 Maelstrom 
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Ok @peterg,

You got me interested. Watching the market this morning, reviewing your charts, and putting some notes on there.

Could be wrong, but is that an a-b-c structure right at where I am seeing a signal also?

Really not feeling the uptrend is still there, or if it is, it looks like it is slowing down, and really no idea of the "wave count", but going to label up the charts today along with what I do and see where it ends up.

M

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 Maelstrom 
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Short from 96.40, stop 96.58.

Don't like that setup, but it was there, so took it.


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 roreilly 
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Are you still in this trade or did you bail out? It looks like it went 1 cent short of your fifty cent target (so far).

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 Maelstrom 
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Are you still in this trade or did you bail out? It looks like it went 1 cent short of your fifty cent target (so far).

Still in it.... probably a very dumb thing to do, but looking at something a little different this morning.

Logical exit was a couple of ticks above yesterdays high, or the reversal from that level.

Will keep you posted...good or bad

M

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 Maelstrom 
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 Maelstrom 
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 Maelstrom 
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.... failed.

Will go into more details on my thought process on that one, or lack thereof.

Though the trade actually lost 10 or 11 ticks, true loss with opportunity was more like 60 ticks.

Time for some revenge trading!!
(just kidding)

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 Maelstrom 
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Sloppy, stupid trade.... this is one that I SHOULD have had my ass handed to me for. Late entry, just wrong wrong wrong.

Chalking it up to not paying attention to what I should. May be done for today.


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 peterg 
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peterg View Post
They'll keep buying the pull backs until proven wrong then they'll sell the rallies until proven wrong.

Keep doing what works...but understand bigger picture...why it works ie with in Context.

I see you pressing trades into exhaustion a few too many times; this contunuation breakout works in strong momentum only to the point of trend exhaustion


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Again same trade: Sell London and Buy New York open @ the 96 pullback pivot. They may dip the figure but its just to sweep the stops. Same old Grandma 1:4 RR swing it back to 97+ Top of Range level.


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 roreilly 
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Did you catch any of the volatility over the past two days? I would be interested to see how your entries work in a fast moving, volatile day. I am still a little unclear on how you decide which support/resistance triggers the three level entry. Is is any support or resistance, or is it subjective? Thanks.

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 Maelstrom 
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Did you catch any of the volatility over the past two days? I would be interested to see how your entries work in a fast moving, volatile day. I am still a little unclear on how you decide which support/resistance triggers the three level entry. Is is any support or resistance, or is it subjective? Thanks.

I did - both were pretty outstanding days. Wed was able to stay with the downtrend for several trades, and yesterday not quite as easy, but still a good day.

As for your questions, no, it is not any S/R, or subjective. Pretty much rule based on specific patterns and entry triggers. I know I had promised to clarify everything, but as I mentioned, a little more difficult clearly writing out step by step what I see or am looking for. A little torn on this journal as well... originally had intended it to be for accountability for myself, and it has been helpful to a certain degree in having to expose myself with bad decisions or bad trades, but it has been a bit distracting posting during the trading day - especially "live trades". Guess I wanted transparency in my trading and not just be a hindsight trader. Anyway, realized that doesn't much matter - my accountability is to myself, and my account

If there are specific questions or things I can clarify, let me know - no holy grails here, and have no issue sharing what I do. And will continue to post daily recaps as time permits.

Thanks
M

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 roreilly 
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I think that live calls are like playground showing off -- to me, no individual trade matters, it is the consistency and the system. So posting after the fact is just fine.

Yesterday (April 4th) CL hit 92.73 around 9:15 a.m. ET, I don't use your tick settings (because I don't have the data to backtest them), but it looks like there was three breaks upwards by about 8:50 a.m. I passed on this countertrend move, but I was interested to see how you played it, if at all. By the way, my experience was very different from yours: I lost about 13 ticks on Wednesday, made about 100 ticks on Thursday.

Thanks for your journal.

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 Maelstrom 
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I think that live calls are like playground showing off -- to me, no individual trade matters, it is the consistency and the system. So posting after the fact is just fine.

Yesterday (April 4th) CL hit 92.73 around 9:15 a.m. ET, I don't use your tick settings (because I don't have the data to backtest them), but it looks like there was three breaks upwards by about 8:50 a.m. I passed on this countertrend move, but I was interested to see how you played it, if at all. By the way, my experience was very different from yours: I lost about 13 ticks on Wednesday, made about 100 ticks on Thursday.

Thanks for your journal.

Good point on the live calls....

Chart below with the time frame you were asking about... let me know if there is anything that is unclear.

Thanks
M


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 Maelstrom 
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...and overview of the day (04/04)


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 rubyslippage 
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Have you always traded with tick charts, and what do you find to be the major advantages?

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 Maelstrom 
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Have you always traded with tick charts, and what do you find to be the major advantages?

Tick or volume charts are my preference, although of course have used time based and other charts in the past.

They have always just seemed to provide a clearer flow to the market for me with the elimination of extreme or long bars, although time based bars do have the advantage of showing the "pace" of the market a bit better.

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 peterg 
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Then they 'll buy the dips.
But whatever you do, Don't sell the dips, dont sell exhaustion, stop getting short in the HOLE!

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 rubyslippage 
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Then they 'll buy the dips.
But whatever you do, Don't sell the dips, dont sell exhaustion, stop getting short in the HOLE!

Is this phrase reference to a failed range breakout?

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 peterg 
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Is this phrase reference to a failed range breakout?

Read my previous posts...look at the daily....once the daily rolled over its a sell the rallies theme.
Before it was buy the dips modus.

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 Maelstrom 
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peterg View Post
Then they 'll buy the dips.
But whatever you do, Don't sell the dips, dont sell exhaustion, stop getting short in the HOLE!

@peterg,

Thanks for the post once again - a few questions for you...

How do you define exhaustion in a trend or move?

With the chart we both used there, it is relatively easy to "see" a strong move downward that you noted as action of course, but how do you actually define or determine that a move is reaching that exhaustion point? Fib extensions, S/R levels from prior swings or days, x number of points in relation to a previous move?

Take this chart from 4/02....


Extremely strong downward move...then a relatively small pullback, and a continuation downward for a pretty strong leg. Now at that pullback, how would one know whether that was an exhaustion point or not? If just eyeballing that first push down, and thinking about exhaustion points, would have probably hesitated and just watched it drop hard again.

As for keep selling rallies in a downtrend - of course, excellent advice. I have taken some time looking at swings as (I believe) you see them, a-b-c patterns, etc. The chart we were both reviewing has a couple of really good a-b-c pullbacks that you noted. Question I have is the far right edge, where I noted, in a very sloppy manner as I am not at my computer, what looks to be an a-b-c pattern forming up:



But, looking at the result, there of course was not a turn at that point:



Some choppy action, and then eventually, a last strong turn down. For the a-b-c pattern (if that was one), is there some additional qualifications that give you confidence that it is indeed a pullback versus just a chop zone as that one was?

As I had mentioned earlier in the thread, I "see" all sorts of things through the trading day... price patterns, S/R levels, Fib levels, momentum moves, congestion zones, etc. But for me at least, all those things are too easy to see the way I want to see them, and in hindsight, all clear as day - but in real time, that hard right edge has had a way of making me bang my head off the desk a few times and asking what was I thinking.

My trading is very simple now... based on a very simple pattern, with very simple trigger, while taking into account some common sense things such as news or previous day price levels. I am wrong pretty often, but my R:R is such that I usually end up on the plus side of the column on most days. But isn't that pretty much what trading is? Taking an edge, perceived or real, and minimizing risk while maximizing profits.

Have to admit, when I woke up this morning and checked my messages and saw the post, I felt it rubbed me just a bit the wrong way - seemed to come across as "hey dummy, you're doing it wrong!" But, I quickly got past that... this is a journal after all, and as difficult as it is sometimes to put one's mistakes out there, that is part of what it is for. So, keep the posts and comments coming. The only thing I would ask is for some more detail or clarification as to the why's and how's of what you are showing - I know I would find that helpful, and others may as well.

Thanks,
M

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 peterg 
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Fib extensions and retracements and point in time such as market opens and closes..maybe the first hour before and after.

Back to the concept of CONTEXT...how can one Make a trade with out calculating the potential reward to risk?

Rely on market structure.....swing highs and lows and their ratio relationships that they typically share.

There is also momentum, sustained direction or whippy volatility.

There is also respect for the greater time frame which rules the same ratio swing analysis on a stronger level.

Your entries appear late in the cycle...perhaps because you are just trading Your 800 tick "trigger" breakout of higher hi or lower lo with out regard for broader "Setup" or "Context"

INSTEAD:

If you trigger was buy a higher low after exhaustion, or sell a lower high after in the larger context of exhaustion you would be earlier and within a smaller stop to the risk line, which is where the trade is stopped out according to a market structure breach and not an arbitrary risk tolerance account stop.

You're slinging five lots on crude in one pop...the slippage alone on a stop run adds insult to injury.

The whole reason I got on the abc track was that your trigger is best used in impulsive trend moves where you buy a break of W1 for the W3 reward and this is best found after an abc corrective retracement move. so when you see the abc your looking for a reversal to continue trend after a higher low long or short when a lower high
put in

I'm just speaking in basic Elliot terms so that we can all be on the same page as to where your trigger is most effective within this context as defined by Elliot. It doen't need to be an Elliot context....but it needs to be a context...it might be sentiment, or new traders coming in on the open to counter trade the previous move that has taken place over the last 3-6 hrs. But it should be a framework for the trade.

Right now crude is bouncing...not as much as ES and other non- commodity risk trends but it stopped falling.

Context for perspective/bias, RR calculations, or comparative inter-market analysis...helps

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 Maelstrom 
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.... and make you say, "what the hell was I thinking" lol.

Spent some time this morning going through this one, and other old posts, and it has been interesting to say the least -
even a little painful maybe. A few things were made clear to me though, and they are not anything new by any means.

First is how easy it is to jump around to the "new idea" whenever my secret sauce method hits a rough spot. Really been all over the board over the years, trying this, tweaking that. But looking back on some of the things I have done, there were definitely some glimmers of some good stuff, and some other things that leave me scratching my head as to why.

My second revelation has been.... almost anything as far as a method can work. Flipping a coin, using 30 different indicators, measuring the brightness of constellations in the night sky to determine a trade direction....if, and a BIG if, there is the realization it can (and probably) will be wrong. In the simplest terms, managing risk. Not taking losses personally, managing them to minimize impact, creeping back to the "let me tweak this for the 1000th time to get 100% wins" Because the good trades are there, maybe not now or today, but if I am not there and ready for them when they do, then this can never work.

I am a slow, and stubborn learner - my wife will attest to that.

So, I will be back to posting a bit. I thought to jump back into someone else's journal - @michaelleemoore 's Scalper's Journey has been great, lots of great people that have been on there, and I miss the activity there. Also thought of starting a new journal, but that seems like that would defeat the purpose of a journal. So, here we go - feel free to post, comment, hijack, whatever, and I will work on posting what I am doing.

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 Maelstrom 
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ES trade before the open, break of consolidation. Took more heat than I would have liked, not surprising taking the first break like that, but got out with +5 ticks. Waiting for direction now.


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