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Crude conversations

  #71 (permalink)
Milwaukee WI
 
Experience: Intermediate
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I think that live calls are like playground showing off -- to me, no individual trade matters, it is the consistency and the system. So posting after the fact is just fine.

Yesterday (April 4th) CL hit 92.73 around 9:15 a.m. ET, I don't use your tick settings (because I don't have the data to backtest them), but it looks like there was three breaks upwards by about 8:50 a.m. I passed on this countertrend move, but I was interested to see how you played it, if at all. By the way, my experience was very different from yours: I lost about 13 ticks on Wednesday, made about 100 ticks on Thursday.

Thanks for your journal.

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  #72 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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roreilly View Post
I think that live calls are like playground showing off -- to me, no individual trade matters, it is the consistency and the system. So posting after the fact is just fine.

Yesterday (April 4th) CL hit 92.73 around 9:15 a.m. ET, I don't use your tick settings (because I don't have the data to backtest them), but it looks like there was three breaks upwards by about 8:50 a.m. I passed on this countertrend move, but I was interested to see how you played it, if at all. By the way, my experience was very different from yours: I lost about 13 ticks on Wednesday, made about 100 ticks on Thursday.

Thanks for your journal.

Good point on the live calls....

Chart below with the time frame you were asking about... let me know if there is anything that is unclear.

Thanks
M


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  #73 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Overview


...and overview of the day (04/04)


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  #74 (permalink)
Phoenix, AZ
 
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Tick chart

Have you always traded with tick charts, and what do you find to be the major advantages?

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  #75 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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rubyslippage View Post
Have you always traded with tick charts, and what do you find to be the major advantages?

Tick or volume charts are my preference, although of course have used time based and other charts in the past.

They have always just seemed to provide a clearer flow to the market for me with the elimination of extreme or long bars, although time based bars do have the advantage of showing the "pace" of the market a bit better.

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  #76 (permalink)
maui
 
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They'll keep selling the rallies until it doesnt work anymore

Then they 'll buy the dips.
But whatever you do, Don't sell the dips, dont sell exhaustion, stop getting short in the HOLE!

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  #77 (permalink)
Phoenix, AZ
 
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Short in the Hole


peterg View Post
Then they 'll buy the dips.
But whatever you do, Don't sell the dips, dont sell exhaustion, stop getting short in the HOLE!

Is this phrase reference to a failed range breakout?

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  #78 (permalink)
maui
 
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Its about Crude in general...sentiment


rubyslippage View Post
Is this phrase reference to a failed range breakout?

Read my previous posts...look at the daily....once the daily rolled over its a sell the rallies theme.
Before it was buy the dips modus.

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  #79 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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peterg


peterg View Post
Then they 'll buy the dips.
But whatever you do, Don't sell the dips, dont sell exhaustion, stop getting short in the HOLE!

@peterg,

Thanks for the post once again - a few questions for you...

How do you define exhaustion in a trend or move?

With the chart we both used there, it is relatively easy to "see" a strong move downward that you noted as action of course, but how do you actually define or determine that a move is reaching that exhaustion point? Fib extensions, S/R levels from prior swings or days, x number of points in relation to a previous move?

Take this chart from 4/02....


Extremely strong downward move...then a relatively small pullback, and a continuation downward for a pretty strong leg. Now at that pullback, how would one know whether that was an exhaustion point or not? If just eyeballing that first push down, and thinking about exhaustion points, would have probably hesitated and just watched it drop hard again.

As for keep selling rallies in a downtrend - of course, excellent advice. I have taken some time looking at swings as (I believe) you see them, a-b-c patterns, etc. The chart we were both reviewing has a couple of really good a-b-c pullbacks that you noted. Question I have is the far right edge, where I noted, in a very sloppy manner as I am not at my computer, what looks to be an a-b-c pattern forming up:



But, looking at the result, there of course was not a turn at that point:



Some choppy action, and then eventually, a last strong turn down. For the a-b-c pattern (if that was one), is there some additional qualifications that give you confidence that it is indeed a pullback versus just a chop zone as that one was?

As I had mentioned earlier in the thread, I "see" all sorts of things through the trading day... price patterns, S/R levels, Fib levels, momentum moves, congestion zones, etc. But for me at least, all those things are too easy to see the way I want to see them, and in hindsight, all clear as day - but in real time, that hard right edge has had a way of making me bang my head off the desk a few times and asking what was I thinking.

My trading is very simple now... based on a very simple pattern, with very simple trigger, while taking into account some common sense things such as news or previous day price levels. I am wrong pretty often, but my R:R is such that I usually end up on the plus side of the column on most days. But isn't that pretty much what trading is? Taking an edge, perceived or real, and minimizing risk while maximizing profits.

Have to admit, when I woke up this morning and checked my messages and saw the post, I felt it rubbed me just a bit the wrong way - seemed to come across as "hey dummy, you're doing it wrong!" But, I quickly got past that... this is a journal after all, and as difficult as it is sometimes to put one's mistakes out there, that is part of what it is for. So, keep the posts and comments coming. The only thing I would ask is for some more detail or clarification as to the why's and how's of what you are showing - I know I would find that helpful, and others may as well.

Thanks,
M

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  #80 (permalink)
maui
 
Experience: Master
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Exhaustion


Fib extensions and retracements and point in time such as market opens and closes..maybe the first hour before and after.

Back to the concept of CONTEXT...how can one Make a trade with out calculating the potential reward to risk?

Rely on market structure.....swing highs and lows and their ratio relationships that they typically share.

There is also momentum, sustained direction or whippy volatility.

There is also respect for the greater time frame which rules the same ratio swing analysis on a stronger level.

Your entries appear late in the cycle...perhaps because you are just trading Your 800 tick "trigger" breakout of higher hi or lower lo with out regard for broader "Setup" or "Context"

INSTEAD:

If you trigger was buy a higher low after exhaustion, or sell a lower high after in the larger context of exhaustion you would be earlier and within a smaller stop to the risk line, which is where the trade is stopped out according to a market structure breach and not an arbitrary risk tolerance account stop.

You're slinging five lots on crude in one pop...the slippage alone on a stop run adds insult to injury.

The whole reason I got on the abc track was that your trigger is best used in impulsive trend moves where you buy a break of W1 for the W3 reward and this is best found after an abc corrective retracement move. so when you see the abc your looking for a reversal to continue trend after a higher low long or short when a lower high
put in

I'm just speaking in basic Elliot terms so that we can all be on the same page as to where your trigger is most effective within this context as defined by Elliot. It doen't need to be an Elliot context....but it needs to be a context...it might be sentiment, or new traders coming in on the open to counter trade the previous move that has taken place over the last 3-6 hrs. But it should be a framework for the trade.

Right now crude is bouncing...not as much as ES and other non- commodity risk trends but it stopped falling.

Context for perspective/bias, RR calculations, or comparative inter-market analysis...helps

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