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Crude conversations

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  #51 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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too risky.

Looking like right direction, just bad timing.

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  #52 (permalink)
maui
 
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But the context of the sideways market says quicker range scalps...until a break of entire range


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  #53 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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peterg View Post
But the context of the sideways market says quicker range scalps...until a break of entire range


@peterg,

Ah, I can see now, I have not been clear on my entries at all.... I will go into more detail on those tonight when I get back home.

As for the first trade.... good catch! I was hoping someone would mention that one. My entry signal was actually a couple of swings back - I just didn't want to get into a new position that close to the open, so decided to wait until/if price came back to my level.

Thanks
M

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  #54 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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@peterg,

Was planning (and still am) to clarify a few things with my trading, and found it is quite a bit more difficult to try to explain something than actually doing it. Of course, not that you or anyone else here needs my super wonderful holy grail road to riches method of trading, but figured if I am going to post to a journal, some explanation would probably be a good thing. Going to take a day or so to figure out the best way to put that forward, if there is even any interest out there.

Did want to say thanks by the way.... your annotated chart you had posted with the "waves" has had me looking at the market from a different perspective. Probably won't change my trading from what it is now, but it might just add a few things for me that might make me a better trader.

So...... thanks!

M

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  #55 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Notes on chart - shouldn't have traded earlier in the day knowing that I wouldn't be able to trade the whole day, and took a small loss for the day.



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  #56 (permalink)
maui
 
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Breaks of these smaller minor internal or inside swings can be just a lot of rotation churn, that by nature cycles back against an optimistic entry.

The larger outside swings bring in new prices , stop running and participation / interest.

Once this Double Bottom sets up...it is just so obvious..... that discount buying/accumulation as close to the defined risk line is a Classic Grandma Trade 1:4 R/R with target at full retracement to previous swing high.


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  #57 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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I promised myself I would keep up this journal, regardless of my schedule, so - here it is. Don't know if it is providing any value to anyone but myself, but that is good enough.

Work obligations have been extreme, but, as always, going back over the day. In one word, today was shit. Not as bad as last Thursday, but going into a holiday weekend, anyone trading that day is probably either an absolute lunatic, or has balls of steel.

As noted on my chart, the best trade of the day was the first one in the overnight - not unusual in my opinion for Sunday evenings/Monday mornings. Otherwise, the whole day hinged on one trade.


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  #58 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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So, been working my butt off for the last 13 days straight - finally have a day off Sunday (yesterday). No kids, nothing to do but relax, so what do I decide to do - that's right! Look at charts!

Sigh.... sad sometimes.

Anyway... decided to look at refining entries and stops. Why you ask? Because there is an evil little voice in my head that has taunted me for over 10 years!

"You can do better" it whispers at me..... "There is a way to get 100% winning trades" Or "Think what if you could make 100+ ticks everyday". Yes, it is evil....

So, decided to look at zooming in to a 80t chart for entries and stops. Wasn't really looking to trade differently from what I do now - same method, just....better. Something to note here.... I do not like multiple timeframe trading. Nothing wrong with it, lots of people do it, just not for me other than looking at a longer term chart at the end of the day to see the general direction of things. But of course... spent hours looking into it anyway.

Looked over 2 weeks of charts, and for a good portion of the days, it would have helped. Stops/losses would have been tighter, entries a little bit better, looks like the way to go. But then.....

Once I really drilled down into it, I saw that on a lot of days, it worked better, BUT, there were some days where I missed a key trade or got stopped out way to early on what would have been the money trade. Result - more losing days than winning, and surprisingly, less profit at the end of the period.

I am bringing this up for a couple of reasons:

First - one should have faith and confidence in what they are doing. In other words, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Second - perfection is not needed, but consistency is.

Third - keep an open mind, and explore other ways

Wait a minute, what the hell was #3!? This post was all about not changing things, right? The evil voice!

Yes, but my experience is this - once you think you have the market figured out perfectly, the bitch will change it up on you. Maybe it is for a day, maybe a week, maybe a decade. I had posted earlier in the thread, my trading has been working out well for me for some time now, but I am firm believer that will not always be the case. When it has PROVEN to me that my way is no longer working, I will adapt and kick her ass once more.

The moral to this story is for anyone out there who is struggling (all of us at certain times) - look at all options, but not to change things on a whim without an overwhelmingly strong and proven reason to do so. That is why I love it when someone like @peterg posts his charts - gets me thinking and looking at different options.

End of sermon.... and thinking I shouldn't have had that second martini prior to posting tonight!

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  #59 (permalink)
maui
 
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They'll keep buying the pull backs until proven wrong then they'll sell the rallies until proven wrong.

Keep doing what works...but understand bigger picture...why it works ie with in Context.

I see you pressing trades into exhaustion a few too many times; this contunuation breakout works in strong momentum only to the point of trend exhaustion

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  #60 (permalink)
Round Rock, Texas
 
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Ok @peterg,

You got me interested. Watching the market this morning, reviewing your charts, and putting some notes on there.

Could be wrong, but is that an a-b-c structure right at where I am seeing a signal also?

Really not feeling the uptrend is still there, or if it is, it looks like it is slowing down, and really no idea of the "wave count", but going to label up the charts today along with what I do and see where it ends up.

M

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