I'm quite familiar with TF as I sim-traded some strategies on it (4-Range and 5-minute) since Apr. Let me check it out and come up with an appropriate PT/SL strategy. Appreciate any tips for scalping since my strategies had been using 60/25 or 60/20 - meant to stay in a trade longer and no manual management.
Guess my prelim diagnosis based on the screen size they occupied today?!!
If you're watching/trading ES today, there're numerous moments that price traded within a 4-tick range - gosh! I'm glad that I survived though my petite head did "almost' drop to my station many times ..
I market replayed TF last night and am quite happy with the success incl its price movement (pace I meant). Bear in mind that market replay is very different from sim trade (same for live vs sim). Sooo, this morning I have been sim-trading TF (instead of ES) to get some hands-on experience.
Did 3 profitable trades. For the first trade, I was meant to place a Sell Stop 1 tick before the recent LL and accidentally did a market order. Well, either way was a good one. You will notice all trades lasted within 1-2 minutes. I also noticed an interesting behaviour when it's getting close to Support/Resistance 644.00 (magenta dash line) every time, ie
If one places a Buy or Sell Stop 1 tick above or below it, aiming for 4 ticks or so, PT will get hit within seconds.
Note: I have friends telling me that TF respects S/R more than ES. Maybe that's why. Certainly it may not be true all the time!
In short, within 15 minutes, I made 23 ticks before commission (all 2-contract trades PTs @4/8 and SL @6 (SL adjusts to 1 tick after a 4-tick move). For real life, I will probably stop after 2 profitable trades (18 ticks) .. smile ..
What's the plan?
Remember I sim-traded TF (auto-trading) for some months and should have tons of historical data. I am going to market replay TF "like crazy" to get a better feel on its pace. This morning everything has been moving fast .. one day does not mean much.
Initial Balance: 1117.00 - 1108.25 (8.75 points) Value Area as at 10:40 am: 1114.75 - 1112.75 - 1109.25 (5.50 points)
Price opened @1115.25
Today's High and Low as at 10:40 am: 1117.00 - 1108.25 (matching IB)
VPOCs: Top 1128.50 and Bottom 1123.00 and 1108.00 Overnight High and Low: 1125.75 and 1112.75
My expectation: it will move within today's Initial Balance until the FMOC meeting. Well, I do not know Mr Market too well. My recommendation: Only trade high probability trades LOL!
a. When the suggested entry was very close to S/R or recent HL/HH/LL/LH, I chose to enter when price broke both.
b. There're a few orders that were not filled at the beginning. Why? I was being "cheap" again. Waiting for the suggested entry price to get hit and tried to get in at a better price. Considering TF's "faster" price movement, they're not filled. Glad that I adapted and fixed my "bad" habit.
Very calm and relaxed though really needed to act fast.
Reminder for myself: Missing a trade or even a few NOT a big deal. DON'T CHASE!
3. Trader's Performance
Hmm, B- please .. haha .. (minus because I chased "once").
Initial Balance: 1101.50 - 1093.75 (7.75 points) Value Area as at 10:40 am: 1098.25 - 1097.75 - 1093.75 (4.50 points)
Price opened @1101.25
Today's High and Low as at 10:40 am: 1101.50 - 1093.75 (matching IB)
VPOCs: Top 1108.00 and Bottom 1039.50 (1095 was touched) Overnight High and Low: 1119.75 and 1099.25
Very choppy for ES since its drop before the market opened. I am bear bias and expect it falls further. Let's see what Mr market wants!
You can tell from the enclosed that my petite fingers have been extremely busy this morning. I tried different ATM strategies (only did 1-contract trades) as follows:
1. PT/SL both @6 and adjust SL to -2 after a 4-tick move
For the first three trades, all touched my PT 6 and yet not filled. Ended up losing 2-3 ticks.
Since this strategy seemed not working this morning, I adjusted to 2. below.
2. PT/SL @4 and 6, adjust SL to -2 after a 4-tick move
There're a few trades touching PT 4 and again not filled (believe it's Bid/Ask). Also noticed SL was not adjusted to -2 and ended up losing 6 ticks.
So adjusted the strategy further to 3. below.
3. PT/SL @4 and 6, adjust SL to -2 after a 3-tick move
This strategy tightened SL (in a way preserve precious capital) yet did not provide enough room for a quick pullback.
4. PT/SL @4 and 6, adjust SL to -3 after a 3-tick move
I ended up with this one last. Still to be monitored.
1) When there's an overall trend (say for this morning has been down), I have the choice to do only Short even the Long signals were valid.
2) Don't think too much! I missed a few good ones when I thought too much!
3) I started appreciating more the DMplus lines (Panel 4). For example,
a. Thin red line above thin green line for Short
b. Think green line above thin red line for Long
c. Thick yellow line may turn to thick green within milliseconds when price movement switches gear. Act fast!
Note: I used to think that lines have to move in a certain manner (should I say "my" pattern). Now I realize they all are very flexible, ie from down to a quick up-twist. I must learn to be flexible too .. haha ..
Trading Performance for the Morning Session: -14 ticks. To me, it's more like breakeven and I'm very satisfied with the lessons I've learned.
For the record: I did lots of sim trades yesterday's afternoon .. mainly big ones say from 10- to 20-contract trades. What did I learn?
1. 10-contract trades were easier to get filled compared to 20-contract ones.
2. Come and Go .. The biggest winner was $1,270 while the biggest loser was $1,340. It's all about one's money/trade management and know when to realize gains/when to close.
Will resume trading in the afternoon. Continue enjoying your day.
Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
Last edited by wgreenie; August 11th, 2010 at 03:43 PM.
Reason: Fixed typo
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