I spent the past 5 hours reviewing the most recent set ups I have. I love the simplicity of the Inside Bar set up. Yet I have to consider my account size and risk limit. My heartfelt thanks to Big Mike for his posts which addressed them promptly - Great reminder for me!!
I went through the whole Perry's Platform thread again. It's very important to refresh my memory + picking up more tips on entry/exit/money management. At the beginning, I was sad and almost wanted to cry .. sigh .. What happened?
1. It's my pride. I felt like a failure giving up the Inside/Outside Bar set up UFN.
2. Remember I stayed with the original 4-Range set up in mid Apr since I was overwhelmed with the revised Methods 1 and 2 .. counting bars etc etc. I have to decide "again" whether to resume using the original 4-Range set up (which I modified to meet my preference) or adapt to one of the two new methods (using EMAs and not SMAs).
3. After going through the thread incl certain posts a few times, I adapted my ES set up with the enclosed. Major changes: Removal of SMA 40 and replacement of SMAs with EMAs.
Trading Plan for August
1. Depend on how comfortable I am using the enclosed 4-Range set up (don't know until I'm on live), only 1 1-contract trade/day for the first 2-3 days, then occasional 2-contract ones. Maximum 2-3 trades/day for the first 1-2 weeks. No over-trading.
a. 1-contract trade: PT/SL @4 and 6
b. 2-contract trade: PTs @4 and 6 with initial SL @6. Revised SL to +1 after reaching the first PT.
2. I may sim-trade for the whole week. If yes, 1- or 2-contract trades are fine. Unlimited number of trades for practice (must be valid signals).
3. Trading Hours: 9:40 am to 11:30 am (Primary) | 1:45 am to 3:30 pm (Optional) | SOH when there's important news (15 minutes before and after) and 2:30 pm - 3:00 pm (Bond closing)
4. Continue with Market Profile and the CCI chart serves to get me out of a trade when it's not working.
5. 6E (9:00 am to 11:00 am) - Using the same set up and Market Replay in the evenings. Why? I learned that 6E trades at a wider range than ES esp when it's moving/trending. I sim-traded several strategies on 6E before and did notice its wider price movement. It maybe a candidate between ES and CL - a perfect match for me?! Will explore.
Wish me luck! Smile.
Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
The following user says Thank You to wgreenie for this post:
You don't need luck, just a solid plan, good execution, and a clear head. But, good luck nonetheless
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The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
I think that someone that works as hard as you do deserves to be successful. I don't know if luck plays a role in this game or not. Sometimes I think it does, so I do wish you the best of luck, but I do agree with Mike. Like the saying goes, Plan your Trades and Trade your plan.
Now for my questions. 1. I see you target 4 tics with a stop of 6. I guess that is ok if you expect to have a high % success rate. Is that the idea.
2. In looking at your range chart I see the long after the ABC. That gave you much more than 4 ticks, so could you make your target based on something other than a set 4 tics. For example, when the force index changes color or you get a close below a moving average. Something to allow you to benefit from the move.
Thanks David for your kind encouragement and best wishes!
Let me address your raised questions as follows:
1. PT/SL @4 and 6 = higher successful rate based on my sim trading between Apr and Jun.
2. Yes, if the trade aligns with the ABC breakout, it should give more than 4 ticks. When I was sim-trading, it did not happen very often (or I focussed only the 4-Range entry rules) .. so I was happy with 4 most of the time. I will certainly pay attention to the ABC breakout with your kind reminder/suggestion.
Question please: Willl you kindly elaborate more on "getting a close below or above a MA"? Thanks.
3. Yes .. I am a scalper .. want to be in and out within "seconds" or minutes. If a trade is going my direction, I probably don't mind staying longer .. smile .. Plus when my account size grows bigger, I will consider enjoying occasional runners LOL!
4. The ABC indicator was a gift from a trading friend who requested me to keep it private. After going through the script a few times, I estimate that the triangles will be plotted when minimum retracement: 60 and maximum retracement: 92. I cannot figure out the logic behind the green/red arrows yet. Hopefull it will come to me in the future. As of this moment, I only watch out for breakout trades if and when I remember (not very often yet). Based on observation, they often happen overnight (before the market opens), or around lunch hour or close to 3ish when I am not trading.
You can tell I ignored Nelson yesterday when I was occupied with system review and thread reading etc etc. He made almost 10 attempts (incl taking some "goofy" photos) to draw my attention and/or got me out of the office .. without success unfortunately. Ended up zozozo on the sofa around 7:00 pm and officially went to bed before 9:30 pm.
We have news incl Geithner's speech at 10:15 am. I just clarified an entry myth with Perry and everything good to go. Having the last piece of puzzle in good order - a Big relief!
Nelson needs attention and he's off today. I've decided to take the day off. Will market replay both ES and 6E EOD to get ready for a Great start tomorrow.
Initial Balance: 1119.00 - 1110.25 (8.75 points) Value Area as at 10:32 am: 1116.75 - 1114.75 - 1110.75 (6 points)
Price opened @1114.50
Today's High and Low as at 10:32 am: 1119.00 - 1110.25 (matching IB)
VPOCs: Top 1128.50 and Bottom 1095.00 Overnight High and Low: 1115.00 and 1101.75
Okay, here is a chart of what I mean about waiting for a close below the moving average in this case. I marked it up. I also indicated that with your ABC indicator a good target for an ABC pattern is the length of the AB leg projected from C creating point D. In other words, the length of CD will equal AB. In the attached chart it worked out that way. Also, I'm assuming your 5 minute is your higher time frame chart. That is indicating long, correct? One other thought would be to trail a stop just below the low of the close of each bar. Just some opinions. I hope they are helpful. You can always move your stop to entry after a move of 4 tics and hope to catch a larger move.
By the way, I know being in a trade can be nerve racking, but i think the pros feed off of that fear. They know we feel that way so that is why price oscillates so much. Up and down and up and down. I think it is done to scare us out of positions or taking profits very early.
The following user says Thank You to David_R for this post:
My heartfelt thanks for marking up the chart. I now understand how to stay longer and wait for a close below the MA or trail a stop using the close of each bar.
When I tried to figure out the logic behind the green/red arrows (indicate potential entry I believe), I came across an aggressive entry suggestion, ie 50% of the length of BC. It happened to match your suggested entry 1096 (C 1094.25 + 1/2*(B 1097.75 - C 1094.25)). Do I get it right? Or you have a different method in getting the suggested entry price? If yes, hope you will enlighten me again. Thank you!
On my notes, ABC breakout trades = price has to break out or down point B .. the safer/conservative approach.
Beth (Just came back from a drive to the Swan Lake, visited Organic Garage (lots of organic goodies at bargain prices) and a quick Vietnamese lunch.)
I am writing them out so that I will have a clearer picture on how to spot high probability trades incl trade management when I'm in a trade.
1. Switchover from SMA to EMA Mostly Method 1 as Method 2 (green/red bar) does not happen as often. Used to be quite overwhelming. No longer after doing more homework. Actually I like the specific entry rule on price, ie 1 tick above or below the HH or LL of the the 5 bars once we have a set up bar. Once I have all the entry conditions, I place a Buy/Sell Stop order with predetermined PT/SL orders .. waiting for it to get triggered and relax .. haha ..
Note: The original SMA does not have the price entry suggestion.
2. 4-Range Set Up is primary while the MP 30-minute and CCI 5-minute ones are secondary.
3. Will cushion 2-contract trades very soon .. when I get a better feel on the set up/signals. Looking at historical data seemed easy/simple. I will do more Market Replay .. Practice makes perfect! Then for the second contract, I may adjust PT 6 to 8 or more when it's an ABC breakout or most indicators look positive.
Note: I did try PT 8 for the second contract when I was sim-trading. The revised 1-tick SL got hit all the time and I ended up with 5 ticks for most 2-contract trades. That's why I adjusted it to PT 6. Having said that, I wasn't using the 4-Range set up as my primary chart. Let's see what may happen this time.
4. Still aim to finish trading before 12:00 noon. 2-3 profitable trades everyday (even one) would be an Amazing start for me!
5. Preserve Precious Capital and No Over-trading are always on my Priority List.