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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions


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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

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  #871 (permalink)
 gulabv 
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wgreenie View Post
It's a public holiday here next Monday. Not sure if it's an American holiday too?! Will do my homework.

Beth,

The U.S. markets are open for trading on Monday, Aug 2nd.

have a good weekend!

Gulab

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  #872 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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gulabv View Post
Beth,

The U.S. markets are open for trading on Monday, Aug 2nd.

have a good weekend!

Gulab

Thanks Gulab for your answering my "holiday" question. Nelson's father has been sending him an Arizona calendar every year. I notice the next American holiday will be Labor Day on Sep 6. Great to have the whole month August for trading .. haha ..

Yes .. you and everyone (incl us) are going to have a Lovely weekend.

Beth

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  #873 (permalink)
 Zoethecus 
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Who takes those pictures of you and and your hubby?

 
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  #874 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
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Zoethecus View Post
Who takes those pictures of you and and your hubby?

Hi Zoe

It's not a "who"! It's "it" = a tripod LOL! You won't believe it .. 99% of our photos incl the rehearsal and wedding ones. I am also proud to advise you that I "trained" Nelson to smile for the camera too. Actually it did not take long before he becomes very natural .. haha ..

Beth

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  #875 (permalink)
 Zoethecus 
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wgreenie View Post
Hi Zoe

It's not a "who"! It's "it" = a tripod LOL! You won't believe it .. 99% of our photos incl the rehearsal and wedding ones. I am also proud to advise you that I "trained" Nelson to smile for the camera too. Actually it did not take long before he becomes very natural .. haha ..

Beth

Awesome. You're both very photogenic.

 
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  #876 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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That's what happened last month (CL only):

No of Winning Trades: 14 / 124 ticks
No of Losing Trades: 5 / 90 ticks (ate 72.55% of the winning ticks)
Commission: 10.5 ticks (8.5%)

Net Ticks after commission: 23.5 ticks (18.95% of the winning ticks)

Note: I removed 1 TF and 1 6E trades from the tabulation.

Good news: It's a Green month!

Room for Improvement: Very obvious on the % of the losing trades LOL!

To tell you the truth, I have no idea on how!? I believe one will be in green most of the time after surviving the big losing trades.

Beth

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  #877 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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wgreenie View Post
That's what happened last month (CL only):

No of Winning Trades: 14 / 124 ticks
No of Losing Trades: 5 / 90 ticks (ate 72.55% of the winning ticks)
Commission: 10.5 ticks (8.5%)

Net Ticks after commission: 23.5 ticks (18.95% of the winning ticks)

Note: I removed 1 TF and 1 6E trades from the tabulation.

Good news: It's a Green month!

Room for Improvement: Very obvious on the % of the losing trades LOL!

To tell you the truth, I have no idea on how!? I believe one will be in green most of the time after surviving the big losing trades.

Beth

Nice job, Beth!

Some stats:
  • 19 total trades
  • 14 winning trades
  • 5 losing trades
  • Probability of win = 74%
  • Probability of loss = 26%
  • Commission cost = $105
  • Average commission per trade = $5.52
  • Winning trades produced +124 ticks ($1,240)
  • Losing trades produced -90 ticks -($900)
  • Average winning trade (after commission) = $83.05
  • Average losing trade (after commission) = -($185.52)
  • Net profit (after commission) per trade = $12.36

Your expectancy is (0.74 * 83.05) - (0.26 * 185.52) = 13.22

Once you have a larger sample, say 100 trades, you should run this again and see if your expectancy is higher or lower.

Let me just show you briefly how a small change can affect the expectancy drastically. If your average loser was just 4 ticks less:

New expectancy would be (0.74 * 83.05) - (0.26 * 145.52) = 23.62

You are now making 78% more money!

Mike

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  #878 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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I was recalling what happened ..

1. I spent months in sim-trading mostly ES. Getting more focussed in Apr when I was using a 30-minute Market Profile and 4-Range charts.

2. I believe I had an 85-90% profitable sim record, ie mostly 1-contract trades and occasional 2-contract ones.

3. The biggest losing day was $170 (that I remembered very clearly and was considered to be a huge one at that point). I over-traded that day for sure and the accu $170 loss from at least 2-3 trades and not one.

4. Just days before my sim/real switchover, I tripped over the Three Set Ups thead.

5. It's very very appealing because the set ups (esp the Inside and Outside Bars) are extremely easy to spot/follow. I only need to execute them according to the suggested rules.

6. Another attractive element: PT 8 (for CL) often to be reached within seconds when a trade is working. I witnessed one that's closed within a second!

7. I sim-traded the Inside Bar set up (both discretionary and auto-trading) for about 1.5 weeks .. mostly profitable.

8. Instead of trading ES, I kicked off my trading career with CL.

Why I chose CL over ES?

1) Simple and straight-forward set up .. don't really need to think.

2) Initial PT 8 (equiv to almost 6.5 ES ticks) more appealing.

3) Average length of a CL trade is shorter.

4) Price movement faster than ES most of the time.

As time passed by, I was getting more confident (esp after the third week even I made a mistake on that Tuesday). The fourth (last) week made me "think" again. I must face the reality of a big SL cushion to trade CL.

Note: Considering the high profitability % (90), the required SL cushion may not look big for other traders and it is for me.

Soooo, spent yesterday "thinking", what's my next move for the coming month? I'm still weighing different options .. will know in a few hours ..

Beth

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  #879 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Beth,

Regarding your dilemma... first, CL is a very volatile instrument It may suit that part of your personality, but it means you should adjust your risk factors appropriately.

If $186 (18.6 ticks w/commission) represents your average stop, then it means in order for that to not be more than the maximum 2% recommended by common risk management practices, your account must be funded to $9,300 or more. It means if you have $9,300 in your account, and you take a $186 stop, that represents 2% of your account.

If your account is less than $9,300 or if you are trading more than one contract, your risk of ruin is exponentially higher.

Also keep in mind, if your account is $9,300 to begin with but you take a stop, now it is $9,114 using the average stop. That means on the next trade 2% is $182. After a few losers, if you are to maintain the 2% risk stop then you would have to force your stop loss 'tighter'. The market doesn't care what your risk limit is So an artificial or 'forced' stop to accommodate your risk level doesn't make sense and should be avoided when making trade decisions.

Now, the 2% rule is just a guideline, but it is a good one. Dr. Brett has another guideline. He says that after a losing streak (I think he said 10 trades) he wants to still have half of his account. That means he is leveraging more than 2% per trade. If you had ten losing trades of $186 in a row, it would represent just a 20% drawdown of your $9,300 account.

In the end, only you can best decide your account finding and risk tolerances. The best thing you can do is trade within your limits. If you try to force something, you will be much more apt to make psychological changes instead of sound logical decisions.

Mike

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  #880 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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I've not finalized my revised trading plan. Yet I would like to capture my CL trading experience as follows:

1. I appreciate very much Jeff's generous sharing of his set ups with us.

2. The easy set ups have helped me overcome my fear!! Minimal hesitation to enter a Stop order upon completion of a signal bar after "days" of trading. Not weeks .. not months! I believe I now have a "bigger" heart since it's not racing much anymore.

3. Occasional SL experience has paved my psyche more in-tune to "think in probabilities". A great reminder that there's no holy grail .. no 100% profitable system .. Must trade with an edge.

4. SOH when we have important news. At the beginning I did miss some good signals. Witnessing a 29-tick slippage on an auto-trade when we had the weekly crude oil report .. Wow, that's huge! I told myself I better continue following the news rule. There are always high probability trades waiting.

5. Support/Resistance - Need to ascertain having enough room before entering into a trade.

6. Be alert and flexible when managing a trade. Lots of room for improvement here.

In conclusion, I enjoyed very much the CL trading experience in July. It wouldn't happen without Jeff's sharing and many other's guidance. Big Big Thank You to Jeff and all of you!

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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Last Updated on May 21, 2011


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