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After months of learning and research, my realization is as follows (guess not new to most of you):
1. There's no holy grail .. a 100% winning system/method does not exist!
2. Most indicators/oscillators are slightly different from each other. I've come across hundreds of them. I used to get extremely excited every time I tripped over one. Now with a clearer mind (not bigger eyes unfortunately), some have exactly the same curve except using a different dot or dash etc etc. Are they useful? Yes, to a certain extent. Yet need to bear in mind that most of them are lagged. I will not go to the extreme and ban all of them. At least I am not competent enough to use 100% "naked" chart yet. Maybe one day .. smile ..
3. Learn to read and understand Price Action and Volume (incl market profile, market momentum, commitment of traders and S/R) is essential. I never thought of HH/HL/LL/LH could be so powerful/effective in identifying high probability trades!
4. All instruments have their own unique personality. For example, "A" set up proves to be profitable for "1" Futures. It's unlikely to apply it to other instruments "2-8" and enjoy the same success. Even back to instrument "1", "A" set up may not work the same magic in a few months down the road. Why? Things change and every market moment is unique!! I stopped asking "why" for months. No point to twist my petite brains on one market moment. Let go and lesson learned (hopefully no repetition).
.. .. .. I learned so much .. so far .. More down the road waiting for me to uncover.
What's Next?
1. Continue sim-trading and learn different set ups/instruments?? OR
2. Start real trading and learn to tame my emotion as I go along?? OR
3. Forget about trading and find a job?? (Need to throw this in as I am mapping out the options .. smile ..) OR
4 .. 5 .. 6 ..
Enclosed is my decision!! I will revert tomorrow after my first day. Wish me luck!
Remember I preferred following one's calls so that I wouldn't be accountable for a trade's result!! My last attempt was to follow a volume-based MP trader on Twitter (back in end May/early Jun). I was very disappointed when he did not tweet-tweet his trade ideas.
Jungian and some of you comforted me and pointed me to the right direction. It's critical to my success that I MUST own a system and be responsible for every single trading decision myself. For the record, I did not follow that trader anymore.
You may notice from my CL chart that I adapted Jeff's set up to one I prefer, eg addition of the Divergence and SMI indicators. For the semi-auto TF one, I picked the ones that I understand and am comfortable to trade with. Without my knowing, I do have my own systems .. haha ..
I've been following your journey from afar. I've noticed you got real excited about market profile and then Perry's platform and then.......you get the idea.
The point is this. All these methods work for some people but especially for the person that developed it in the first place. Your task it to pick one and master it. Make it your own.
It seemed to me that you were having a bit of success when you were mostly using Market Profile. I think that may best suit your personality as well. Not sure about that as I don't know you of course but based on your journal, that is mho.
I think you have what it takes to be the successful trader you desire to be. But you have to choose one style and master it. If you master it, you can adapt to other instruments if you have to but the people who are really successful master both the method and the instrument they trade.
The most successful trader I know only trades ES and sometimes the FDAX. He trades in the hundreds of contracts a day and has a million dollar account.....we can learn from those kind of people.
Anyway, this is my two cents worth. Choose one method and one instrument and master them both.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Beth....On azTrader9's post I have also been following and can only offer this advice....
When you began you moved from indicator to indicator and template to template...And look where you are now.. Its a great distance from those first days
Your progress in Sim has been remarkable. Your self analysis/market analysis/homework is second to none.
However I am reminded of a book I have been reading by Barry Schwartz called "The Paradox of Choice". In it he discusses the very idea azTrader9 is hinting at that we as humans are always looking for the 'BEST' solution or the 'BEST' way because of our society's emphasis on making the absolute right choice.
So, we’re in a society with almost infinite choice. Why is that so bad? Unfortunately, many of us have a tendency to need to investigate all possibilities. That can be especially tough with so many options. Those who succumb are attempting to maximize.
Maximizers need to be assured that every purchase or decision was the best that could be made. Yet how can anyone truly know that any given option is absolutely the best possible? The only way to know is to check out all the alternatives. The alternative to maximizing is to be a satisficer. A satisficer has criteria and standards. She searches until she finds an item that meets those standards, and at that point, she stops.
In the book, Barry Schwartz argues that maximizing too much makes us unhappy. I’ll show a few more examples of that later in this series.
Before you get down on yourself and feel even worse, it’s important to note that you are not one or the other. There are things about which you maximize and others where you satisfice. The trick is to acknowledge your weak points and find ways to be happier without investigating all the options.
I will refer to Barry Schwartz's book again "The Paradox of Choice"
The important concept of the MAXIMIZER and the SATISFICER are brought up.
He brings up a very simple psychological experiment that speaks volumes as far as trading …
Schwartz in his book, gives examples ofcourse in the consumer perspective, where we are faced with 58 different hair conditioners and 42 different Salad Dressings, 109 different coffees ...well you get the point.
It's the same with indicators or systems. We are always naturally looking for the BEST. And as you have discovered there is no holy grail.
And just to put it in perspective as to why you dont HAVE to be the BEST let me give you a quote from Rob Booker as he uses a rather funny example to get his point across in this PDF...
One hiker, while being chased, stopped to put on running shoes. As he was changing out of his hiking boots, his companion looked at him in horror and exclaimed, “Dude, what’s the deal-io? You’ll never outrun the bear if you stop now!”
Calmly, the other hiker said, I don’t have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun you.” Currency trading can be like running away from the bear.
Good observation that I still have some kids' personality, ie getting excited with new "toys" easily LOL. I'm aware of this shortcoming and have been doing my best to focus .. smile ..
I enjoy doing Market Profile analysis during the first hour Initial Balance and EOD. Point of Control, VAL, VAH and overnight High/Low are useful reference points which I neglected before. Fade the Extreme is still my favorite trade set up. I believe Reversal trades fit in this category.
I consider going through new set ups/systems/indicators as part of the trading pursuit. Balance is the key + how I make use of the new information and more importantly how I let go of most of them.
In short, every attempt has been made to create my own system. Ideally a simple one that I am comfortable to trade with. Master one method and one instrument is the ultimate goal!
I appreciate and treasure your sharing!! You can always read my mind!
What a relief NOT to look for the BEST solution all the time. Hmm, we're just human and maybe tempted to do so occasionally .. smile .. As long as we know our way "home", we will be doing fine .. haha ..
It's so true that being a maximizer or trying to be a perfectionist will not make us happy. There're times when others thought I did more than 100% yet I was unhappy. I silently stayed away and licked my pride because there was an inadvertent oversight and I was the only one knowing that. I missed enjoying the moment (many of them) and instead banning my head "feeling really bad".
Good work Beth, just keep up the good work and you will achieve you goal, some bumps in the road will come but stay grounded and keep the plan simple.
All the best
Lalo
Here they come more e-book links by Rob Booker .. Enjoy!
The New eBook
====================
I wrote this ebook based on an email that I sent to a friend who just couldn't seem to get on track with his trading. I think it's some of the most important advice I've ever given to a trader.
Here is the ebook: https://www.robbooker.com/books/2009.pdf
The Other eBooks
====================
Here are five of the most popular ebooks on trading ever written. They've been downloaded hundreds of thousands of times.
Regarding post #651, I am confused. I read it a couple times but don't understand, what is your decision? Or are you holding us in suspense until tomorrow (you said revert but possibly meant reveal?).
Still, in the attachment, those things for sure are part of the keys of success of trading. Notice there is no magical system or indicator or "buy here, sell here" solution that so many people look for. It takes someone with enough experience to finally realize this for themselves and stop searching for that holy grail, so you can actually start trading and own it! Good job!
