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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions
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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

  #321 (permalink)
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Market Replay using Perry's and SuperTrend

I did 6 trades (not doing very good for the first 2 trades) and getting better for the latter 4 (all 2-contract trades). When almost everything aligned = high probability trades LOL! Thanks again Perry for the SuperTrend suggestion + many others!

Done with trading activities (only need to listen to 2-3 audio clips later). Enjoy a Great evening everyone.

Beth

Attached Thumbnails
Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions-market-replay-4-may-2010.jpg   Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions-es-06-10-5_4_2010-4-range-.jpg  
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  #322 (permalink)
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Pre-market Homework for Tuesday 11 May

When the market closed at 1156.25 yesterday, I have the Bottom and Top VPOCs at 1151.25 and 1163.50 respectively.

Currently, it's trading around 1143. If it remains under 1151.25, the Bottom and Top VPOCs will change to 1110.75 and 1151.25.

Happy & Successful Trading!

Beth

Attached Thumbnails
Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions-premarket-homework-11-may-tue.jpg  
 
  #323 (permalink)
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Rules are meant to be "broken"??!!!


Between today and Thu, I have to do at least 1 real trade. It's more challenging than I expected! I spent an hour trying to press the "T" button for an IB order LOL! Well, that's what happened:

1. Price opened below yesterday's Value Area and tried to trade within. It succeeded in staying within the Value Area for the first 2 30-minute brackets. Based on the 80% Rule strategy, I expect it will go to 1156.75 (yesterday's VAH) after breaking 1151.25 the Top VPOC.

2. Perry's Long right at Open was too early for me.

3. The second Long around 10:13 am was a little choppy.

4. When it's a real trade, I do more double-check .. triple-check etc etc.

5. After struggling with the "T" button for almost an hour, I decided to switch back to NJ and on sim again.

Note: IB is not as user-friendly as Mirus/NJ, I have to press more buttons + checking the bracket order. After all these additional procedures, I lost confidence on the trade!

My Realization:

1. I have too many rules. For example,

i. 1 1-contract trade to start. It meant to provide me with a safe cushion. Yet I feel intimidated because if the first and only trade is a losing one (regardless of the $ lost), I am done for the day and no second chance. Having a second chance is important to my psyche though it's up to me if I want to do a second trade .. sigh ..

ii. Fade the Extremes and Perry's set-up occasionally conflict with each other. When price got close to MP's special reference points with rejection, I sold when Perry's indicators were mostly green. You will notice the few Shorts on the sim trade log.

iii. I cannot have both worlds .. sigh ..

iv. I recall now I had the same 1 trade rule for sim to safeguard over-trade (which was my former bad trading habit). It's no longer valid. Starting today, I have the flexibility to sim trade more than 1 per day. For real trades, maximum TWO/day as a start.

How am I going to solve my dilemma?

1. Use Mirus/NJ for real trading and IB at a later date. Transition is minimal as I have been using the same platform for sim-trading. Just need to be more cautious to safeguard human input errors. First I thought IB would be easier and it's not true.

2. Stay with only one primary trade set-up (MP) while using the secondary one (Perry's) for exit and reference only. Certainly when both align at the same time, the trade stands a higher chance of success.

3. I will do more sim trades (not just 1 per day) and market replay to sharpen my trade management skills.

4. I am going to have only 2 charts (MP and Perry's) and the GomiVolumeLadder has to take a break.

5. Can tell my emotion has been calm most of the time (a huge improvement since Feb). I just need to identify a comfort zone (to be tested) for real trading.

Funny that I jumped into a trade or trades easily last year or early Feb .. red and another red and another .. I was more "fearless" then. Guess it's post-Red phobia haunting me now!

Beth (Really need hugs to cheer me up! )

Attached Thumbnails
Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions-es-06-10-5_11_2010-30-min-.jpg   Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions-es-06-10-5_11_2010-4-range-.jpg   Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions-es-sim-trade-log-11-may-2010.jpg  
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  #324 (permalink)
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Hi Beth ,
I totally feel your pain , I have gone through this , my experience taught me something important ,

master one setup only and sim trade it for 1 month , do not add anything to it only one , look at the average wins versus losses , if you have been positive for the month , adopt this setup make it your own , play it on the market replay until you are confident enough in spotting it and executing it with ease , no emotions involved , bank profits or take a small loss and move on

One important thing too , is having too many indicators will cause analysis paralysis , you do not have a clear view of what is happening , and by the time you made the decision to take the trade , the market moved without you and your risk/reward is diminished , so the odds of being profitable gets lower and lower .

Self doubt comes from not being enough confident in your setup , so you keep shaking and sweating : do I take or no , etc... because you are not trained visually to seeing the setup .

You have learnt many concepts , and applying more than one when reading a chart will make you loose , stick to one and you will be a winner !!


I hope I am not boring you , I am trying to help you , shorten that long path of learning , through this .


Wish you courage , we are here for the long run , do not risk real $$$ until , you feel that the chart is finally speaking to you , doing what you are expecting her to do , and this comes from experience and screentime

Cheers , and never give up !

Soumi

"Risk more than others think safe.
Dream more than others think practical.
Expect more than others think possible.
Care more than others think wise"
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  #325 (permalink)
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Beth,

First --

Second, I am a firm believer in simpler is better. I also think you've got to step back and identify a point in which you believe your reason behind taking the trade is now no longer valid (your exit strategy, or the point in which you were wrong). I don't think you can usually set such a point at a consistent tick offset (ie 8 tick stop).

I think it's important to only exit the trade when you are wrong, and give the trade some time to do what you believed it would. There isn't much worse than being stopped out of a trade then have it work for you. But, that being said, risk is the only real thing within your control when trading, so you need to make sure that the risk you are allocating is smart and sensible, if its too much risk then you'll blow up your account and also lose confidence because your emotions will take over (too concerned about the risk).

In the end, all the factors that a profitable trader must consider are plenty to contend with without adding additional layers of complexity with tons of indicators on a chart and all kinds of different methods to follow.

I would like to advocate that you try to simplify your charts, and that you commit to not making a single change for two weeks. At the end of the two weeks you are allowed to change two things, and two things only. Then you must repeat the process. "Two for two" plan or whatever you want to call it, but the idea is for you to get focused. My impression is you are a very smart person, but that you are trying to do too much and trying to trade too many methods. You've got to own it, you've got to make all these various methods your method and not Perry's, not Jeff's, not mine, or whomever. And I don't think you can really do that until you've focused your mind and energy on just that and only that, hence the two week period of "lockdown".

As you go through the two week period, you should journal about your "lockdown" setup. Something like "Man, I really hate when xyz happens because this setup doesn't play those well.", or "This setup is always late at catching new trends" or "This setup is really good for trend following", etc etc. Then at the end of the two week period review your journal and make the two changes that would most dramatically improve your feelings of the method based on your past two weeks of journals.

Just some suggestions and things to consider...

Mike

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  #326 (permalink)
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Market Profile - Special Reference Points

Today's Initial Balance: 1144.25 - 1154.50 (10.25 points range)
Today's Value Area (as at 1:30 pm): 1162 - 1153 - 1147.5 (today's POC is 1.75 points higher than yesterday's 1151.25)
Today's OHL (as at 1:30 pm): O 1146 - H 1166 - L 1144.25
Bottom/Top VPOCs: 1110.75 / 1192.50 (1151.25 and 1163.50 were touched)

I personally think today's Top is in (1166) bearing in mind that 100% of today's IB range is @1164.75. Having said that, if price goes past 1166 with complete acceptance, one may place a buy @1166.25 LOL! Another option is to place a Sell if strong seller around 1166 area. Let's wait and see what the Market wants!!

Beth

 
  #327 (permalink)
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Thanks to soumi71 and Big Mike for your swift response to my post!

I have simplified my charts a little bit, ie

- removal of the MurreyMath indicator from the Market Profile chart (just realized I've not been using it at all)

- removal of all buy/sell volume indicators from the 4-Range chart (believe it's back to the original)

Will stay with the simplified charts for the next two weeks. No changes will be allowed per Mike's suggestion.

For my market replay practice on a YM 4-Range chart later tonight, I will experiment without the EMA lines (black, multi-color and purple). Only focus on the Force Index (Panel 2) and DMplusv3 (Panel 3) and Price bars etc. This will help my learning how to read Price Action.

Well, feel deflated

Beth

Attached Thumbnails
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  #328 (permalink)
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Note: IB is not as user-friendly as Mirus/NJ, I have to press more buttons + checking the bracket order. After all these additional procedures, I lost confidence on the trade!

Bracket Trader

Very lean on resources and very reliable (also very free!).

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  #329 (permalink)
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Beth, I don't know if anyone has mentioned it yet but the title of your thread is focused on the ends versus the means. Generally success or " profits" only arrives after you let go of focus on profits. Whether you consiously think about it or not, the title "journey to make millions" is provocative to be damaging to your psyche because the standard is too high. You are compounding the pressure on yourself.
Best of luck to you.

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  #330 (permalink)
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drago1 View Post
Beth, I don't know if anyone has mentioned it yet but the title of your thread is focused on the ends versus the means. Generally success or " profits" only arrives after you let go of focus on profits. Whether you consiously think about it or not, the title "journey to make millions" is provocative to be damaging to your psyche because the standard is too high. You are compounding the pressure on yourself.
Best of luck to you.

Thanks drago1! When I created my thread in Feb (after a brutal Fri losing all my weekly gains + more), I did not really consider the name too seriously. It's just in my psyche to name my thread with flying colors .. very promising etc. The word "Millions" does not have a monetary value to me.

Let me think about it while checking with Big Mike on how to change the thread's title if I decide to do so. Thank you.

Beth


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