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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions
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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

  #1571 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Thanks for the successful wishes ;-)

Question for you dear fellow countryman, within your approach you seem to be relying heavily on divergence to take a trade. What difference is there between a divergence signal and two moving averages crossing in terms of signal reliability ? Although different, both types of signal are easily identifiable and occur frequently. Why using the divergence over another type of signal ? Certainly your preference must be based on some comparative effectiveness analysis. Why a divergence signal as a reason to take a trade ?

Depending on how you enter divergences, they can get you in at the very tip of the swing hi/low of a reversal. These are the only ones I trade because I enter very aggressively, and want to be out of that trade while other divergence traders are waiting for confirmation, and I will be selling to them as they are entering on that confirmation. But, you do get a lot of fake outs trading divergence aggressively, so don't expect to have a super high win ratio. That's where a good risk/reward becomes important. The more conservative way to trade divergence is to take double or tripple divergences. There are fewer of them, but they tend to reverse major moves, and run for a while.

In terms of divergences compared to moving average crossovers, I guess it depends on the lengths of the 2 moving averages, and the time frame you are trading. For example, trading the CL 3 range with a 20EMA and a 50EMA on the chart, for every 20ema/50ema crossover, I will generally see 5 or 6 divergences.

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  #1572 (permalink)
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omaha786 View Post
Beth, the stats you did on 6E without DX is already very good, waiting for all stars to align will only cause you to miss trades.

No worries Omaha786. I have been using DX as a filter since sim- and live-trading 6E. When DX did not align and/or very undecided, I often chose not to take a 6E signal (quite accurate). It has not been happening very often so would not miss tons of trades.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1573 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
...The more conservative way to trade divergence is to take double or tripple divergences. There are fewer of them, but they tend to reverse major moves, and run for a while.
...

To me, it's not much different than a gambler approaching a roulette table and playing black after having seen 2 or 3 reds in a row. In other words, you consider a reversal is more likely or is due after a certain number of divergence. Is there not a bit of wishfull thinking in that ? or is there more to it than a mean to find a reason to take a trade ? Just trying to understand.

 
  #1574 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
To me, it's not much different than a gambler approaching a roulette table and playing black after having seen 2 or 3 reds in a row. In other words, you consider a reversal is more likely or is due after a certain number of divergence. Is there not a bit of wishfull thinking in that ? or is there more to it than a mean to find a reason to take a trade ? Just trying to understand.

I guess the same can be said for market structure double tops/bottoms, triple tops/bottoms, etc. You will find that most double/triple tops/bottoms are actually divergent. I think the concept like everything else comes from historical observation, and other market theory, as mentioned in a previous post. It's just another market phenomenon in the basket, that people can choose from. I don't personally trade double, triple divergence, I take any single ones that meet my entry criteria. All the trading education I've encountered mention multi-divergence entries, and like everything in trading, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't.

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  #1575 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
To me, it's not much different than a gambler approaching a roulette table and playing black after having seen 2 or 3 reds in a row. In other words, you consider a reversal is more likely or is due after a certain number of divergence. Is there not a bit of wishfull thinking in that ? or is there more to it than a mean to find a reason to take a trade ? Just trying to understand.

some info about divergence, not gambling

Ensign Software - Article: Divergence Trading

trade safe

Crossover

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  #1576 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
To me, it's not much different than a gambler approaching a roulette table and playing black after having seen 2 or 3 reds in a row. In other words, you consider a reversal is more likely or is due after a certain number of divergence. Is there not a bit of wishfull thinking in that ? or is there more to it than a mean to find a reason to take a trade ? Just trying to understand.


Hold on... What does an ATTEMPT to reverse a trend have to do with a sequence of blacks or reds? Nothing.

If we had said we wait for 4 RED bars and then we BUY the open of the 5th... THAT WOULD align with what you
wrote about reds/blacks and a roulette wheel.

But unless you are arguing that once a trend starts, ONLY with trend trades will make money FOREVER, I think
you have to open your mind to how you decide that the trend in one direction might be over.

That is all we are trying to do. If you have a better and more obvious way with similar risk... PLEASE SHARE.

Kirk Out!

 
  #1577 (permalink)
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From Tue to Fri, there was only 1 divergence signal that met my entry requirements. Unfortunately, it was triggered 3 minutes before a high-priority 10:00 am news This morning there're 2 divergence signals both trapped between the MAs - SOH.

I learned how to draw Fibs last week and practiced identifying the anchor points this week while waiting for a high probability trade. I also put up a 6-Range chart as it maybe easier to find the anchor points. Sim-traded some of them esp those aligned with regular and divergence signals (even they did not meet my rules). Did a 2-contract CL one yesterday's afternoon when the 6E morning session was over. You can tell from the enclosed that I tried to let them run .. smile ..

My accomplishment for a Nil live trade week:

I succeeded in making myself available within the predetermined trading hours. I was a little edgy on Tue afternoon (no signal in the morning). Felt quite at ease on Wed (another "0" signal morning). Then 1 signal yesterday that's not trade-able when news was around the corner. I kept remindng myself on the 5 Fundamental Truths and 7 Principles of Consistency. I did think if I should pull up a CL chart and trade its divergence signals. It's a no no because:

1. To manage 2 instruments, my stats won't stand true anymore as I probably won't be taking all valid signals.
2. It's very likely that I end up missing some good signals and took the failing ones. Will be disastrous to my psyche.
3. Last but not least, I do not follow my trading plan.

B+ for me even I do not have a chance to act on my edges.

Enjoy a Relaxing weekend everyone.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1578 (permalink)
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Guess how I spent the past two hours?

Well, I came across some recommendation on the following:

How To Think Like a Professional Trader by Mark Douglas (4 DVDs with 2 manuals)

I did some research and just placed an order. Got it for $87 and not the advertised price $400. Now my petite head and heart are waiting for their nutrients lol!

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
 
  #1579 (permalink)
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beverly hills, ca
 
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wgreenie View Post
Guess how I spent the past two hours?

Well, I came across some recommendation on the following:

How To Think Like a Professional Trader by Mark Douglas (4 DVDs with 2 manuals)

I did some research and just placed an order. Got it for $87 and not the advertised price $400. Now my petite head and heart are waiting for their nutrients lol!

Beth

Mark Douglas says a lot of good stuff. Good for trading, and good for life

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  #1580 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ezcolortrading.com 
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Feb Report


It's an unexpected nice surprise that I made $2.50 before commission lol!

I spent some days in tabulating the required stats to identify my edges (over 70% win rate based on historical data) and resumed live trading last Tue. There're no divergence signals (according to my entry rules) to act upon so far. If this continues, I may consider regular signals with Ergodic confirmation. Why not considering the divergence signals between EMAs? To me, it's more uncertain if it will break the Support or Resistance right below or above. Well, let's see what will happen this week.

Have a Successful week everyone.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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