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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions


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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

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  #1561 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
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monpere View Post
I'm not much of a blogger, but like to offer input where I think I might provide some help. I hope my input here is helping Beth with her foray into the mechanical/statistical side of things. As most traders tend to be discretionary traders, I with my mechanical approach, am probably regarded more as a heretic then anything among most on the site

I personnaly think you bring some valuable insights and your comments are always made in a courteous way specially when you show the darker side of the coin.


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  #1562 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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monpere View Post
I'm not much of a blogger, but like to offer input where I think I might provide some help. I hope my input here is helping Beth with her foray into the mechanical/statistical side of things. As most traders tend to be discretionary traders, I with my mechanical approach, am probably regarded more as a heretic then anything among most on the site

I disagree. The way I see you describe your technique a million ways till Sunday shows you have the aptitude. When you teach (through the journal) you become a master right? Teaching is always a great way to perfect.

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  #1563 (permalink)
 MetalTrade 
 
 
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bluemele View Post
Monpere,

You post all over everyone else's journal and also on so many other threads, and there is substantial interest in what you are doing. However, you post what you are doing on all these threads.

Wouldn't it be easier just to journal your trading? I still don't understand why you do that and it really is none of my business, but seems a bit odd to me that you tell everyone what you are doing, but do not actually share what you are doing in a consistent and easy to understand way.

You are a posting bandit, which is great and we need more people like that, but please journal your trading as I think a lot of people would enjoy it.

Myself included.

I appreciate your comment but I do not agree, Like you I really like reading monpere, he brings another inside to the discussion, and that should not be punished with : 'hey start your own journal now'.

I think we should do all what we like here at BM as long as it's within the rules of the forum. I guess I tested those rules enough to know what they are.

 
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  #1564 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Schedule for Mechanical Trader "me":

Trading Hours: 8:30 am to 11:30 am EST (SOH minutes before/after both US market open and high priority news)
Instrument: 6E
Signal: Divergence ones only ideally align with Ergodic
Charts: 6E 3-HA (primary one for entry), 6E 3-Range and DX 3-HA (filter to detect undecidedness)
PT/SL: 6/6 (1:1 risk reward ratio)
ATM Strategy: Adjust SL to +1 after +5, then +3 after +6 (in case PT 6 is touched and not filled)

Every attempt will be made to place a trade without hesitation or reluctance when a divergence signal (not close or between MAs) pops up. Wish me luck .. smile ..

Have a Successful week.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1565 (permalink)
 omaha786 
San Diego, California
 
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wgreenie View Post
Schedule for Mechanical Trader "me":

Trading Hours: 8:30 am to 11:30 am EST (SOH minutes before/after both US market open and high priority news)
Instrument: 6E
Signal: Divergence ones only ideally align with Ergodic
Charts: 6E 3-HA (primary one for entry), 6E 3-Range and DX 3-HA (filter to detect undecidedness)
PT/SL: 6/6 (1:1 risk reward ratio)
ATM Strategy: Adjust SL to +1 after +5, then +3 after +6 (in case PT 6 is touched and not filled)

Every attempt will be made to place a trade without hesitation or reluctance when a divergence signal (not close or between MAs) pops up. Wish me luck .. smile ..

Have a Successful week.

Beth

During backtesting, did you use DX chart?

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  #1566 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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omaha786 View Post
During backtesting, did you use DX chart?

Hi Omaha786

I did not use DX when performing the stats tabulation. For real live trading, it's always good to have a corresponding filter. Having said that, 6E 3-Range HA will be the primary chart with reasons for entry. DX may help safeguarding a few bad ones.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1567 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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wgreenie View Post
...Every attempt will be made to place a trade without hesitation or reluctance when a divergence signal (not close or between MAs) pops up. Wish me luck .. smile ..

Have a Successful week.

Beth

Thanks for the successful wishes ;-)

Question for you dear fellow countryman, within your approach you seem to be relying heavily on divergence to take a trade. What difference is there between a divergence signal and two moving averages crossing in terms of signal reliability ? Although different, both types of signal are easily identifiable and occur frequently. Why using the divergence over another type of signal ? Certainly your preference must be based on some comparative effectiveness analysis. Why a divergence signal as a reason to take a trade ?

 
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  #1568 (permalink)
 omaha786 
San Diego, California
 
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wgreenie View Post
Hi Omaha786

I did not use DX when performing the stats tabulation. For real live trading, it's always good to have a corresponding filter. Having said that, 6E 3-Range HA will be the primary chart with reasons for entry. DX may help safeguarding a few bad ones.

Beth

Beth, the stats you did on 6E without DX is already very good, waiting for all stars to align will only cause you to miss trades.

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  #1569 (permalink)
 monpere 
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wgreenie View Post
Schedule for Mechanical Trader "me":

Trading Hours: 8:30 am to 11:30 am EST (SOH minutes before/after both US market open and high priority news)
Instrument: 6E
Signal: Divergence ones only ideally align with Ergodic
Charts: 6E 3-HA (primary one for entry), 6E 3-Range and DX 3-HA (filter to detect undecidedness)
PT/SL: 6/6 (1:1 risk reward ratio)
ATM Strategy: Adjust SL to +1 after +5, then +3 after +6 (in case PT 6 is touched and not filled)

Every attempt will be made to place a trade without hesitation or reluctance when a divergence signal (not close or between MAs) pops up. Wish me luck .. smile ..

Have a Successful week.

Beth

Hope the next step for you is trading a few dozens of these in sim, preferably many dozens. My experience has been that, while working out all the stats, trades are very clear and evident when you are scanning through historical bars on the chart, with all the bars already formed. When you are looking at the hard right edge with nothing but space to the right, things can look a bit different. So you need to spend sometime letting your brain get accustomed to seeing the patterns form that way as well, and after seeing the patterns form live over and over again, your confidence will build, and you will be anticipating them like 2nd nature.

I remember early in my process, after working out my stats, I had a bit of a crisis when I started to trade the simulator. Somehow I could not recognize the patterns until after 2 or 3 bars had formed beyond the entry. It took me a bit of time to start seeing the patterns live. That may not be the case for you, just wanted to give you a heads up, just in case.

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  #1570 (permalink)
 CaptainKirk 
FL/TN
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Thanks for the successful wishes ;-)

Question for you dear fellow countryman, within your approach you seem to be relying heavily on divergence to take a trade. What difference is there between a divergence signal and two moving averages crossing in terms of signal reliability ? Although different, both types of signal are easily identifiable and occur frequently. Why using the divergence over another type of signal ? Certainly your preference must be based on some comparative effectiveness analysis. Why a divergence signal as a reason to take a trade ?

This is a great question. It has to do with the fact that the FIRST attempt to reverse a move will often fail.
When it does, it leaves DIVERGENCES behind.

Meaning, once you have a divergence, you already had an attempt to reverse. The next attempt has a significantly higher chance of working. Finally, the bigger the divergence, the more obvious the attempt to reverse was, or the bigger the attempted reversal. Now, once that reversal fails, it leaves divergences as a clue.

But divergences can be UNDONE. The price could just keep moving after the failure to reverse... This is the reason you have to wait for the divergence to WORK and creates the dilemma. When do you go with the trade?

One thing I use, from Al Brooks, is the concept of the Measured Move. This is neat. Take a down trend.
Find the FIRST attempt to reverse (The first Higher High bar). From that moves extreme High to the PRIOR swing
low before the HIGHER HIGH. Measure that distance. And project it down 100%. That is an ideal place for the
next attempt to bottom and turn up. Which will be the second attempt. But I prefer the second attempt to turn around to be after a DOUBLE BOTTOM or a failure to go more than a tick or two below the previous low.

But divergence simply tells you there was a prior attempt to reverse (even in just time), as the momentum of
the move of the indicator no longer aligns with the momentum of the price action itself...

HTH,

Kirk Out!
PS: Smile Beth...

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