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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions
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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

  #1521 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ezcolortrading.com 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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No worries .. I now get an idea to enter using a regular range chart .. quite often 1-3 pips better than the corresponding HA entry. Need to review the historical signals first.

I finished watching the video interview - really great! Now I am listening to the following audio interview (even it's 2005):

Mark Douglas August 2005

Thanks everyone.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1522 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ezcolortrading.com 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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I went through 101 divergence signals again and identified the following:

1. Ergodic

Did both Ergodic indicators and white Signal line align with the trade?

Based on historical data (after the fact), I might not take 23 signals (21 losers and 2 winners).

2. HA vs Regular Range Entry

50 out of 101 trades I could get in between 1 and 5 pips better, ie

1 pip 24 trades | 2 pips 19 trades | 3 pips 4 trades | 4 pips 2 trades | 5 pips 1 trade | 51 same HA entry

Getting in early had not been changing the trade outcome. I will consider taking regular range entry from now onward.

It's a fruitful exercise (even my eyes are a little strained) as I have a better understanding on those really good signals (stood out and very obvious). Will I count on Ergodic heavily? Probably not else I may not be trading most signals. I will not take a signal only when the white Signal line is heading the opposite direction and not flat.

6E will be the next to tackle .. not tonight though .. time for a break .. smile ..

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
The following user says Thank You to wgreenie for this post:
 
  #1523 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ezcolortrading.com 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
Posts: 1,773 since Dec 2009
Thanks: 1,258 given, 1,196 received


I went through the following stats post again:

https://futures.io/trading-journals/2630-beths-journey-make-her-millions-150.html#post98075

73 winners and 28 losers (PT/SL @6)

Hmm, if Ergodic can remove over 20 losers, I have no problem trading less signals. The question is: If I am competent enough to decide if Ergodic aligns with a divergence signal or not. If yes, go for it. If uncertain, SOH = minimal trading and I possibly miss most of the signals (both winners and losers).

Soooo, I definitely need more hands-on before assessing my Ergodic detection skill lol! BTW: I finished listening to the 2005 audio interview. Really enjoyed it incl the former video one. My trading success now counts on my ability to trade outside the Winning/Losing and Right/Wrong contexts.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
 
  #1524 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ezcolortrading.com 
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Posts: 1,773 since Dec 2009
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After assessing/validating the effectiveness of the system, I will now focus on the trader "me"!

The message is simple and clear:

~ I need to trade as a professional trader (no fear, no reluctance and no analyzing when placing a trade + in a trade)
~ Accept the fact that trading is a probability game. Don't know the sequence of winners/losers (even I have odds in my favor .. 72% win system)
~ Get myself out of the Right/Wrong and Winning/Losing contexts
~ Every trade is unique and random (most of us will not know the trade outcome except those who can move the market)

Until I accept the above and have the willingness/peace of mind to execute every valid signal with joy, focus, relaxation and self-trust, I will continue to be in a dilemma.

Will develop a strong desire (fire in my heart) to accomplish a professional trader's state of mind!

What's Next?

1. Watch Mark's video interview again.
2. Organize the notes I've taken from the webinars/interviews.
3. Listen to some trading hypnosis audio clips.
4. Set my mind to get there!!

Note: Will not watch the markets tomorrow. Be a smart bookworm lol .. smile ..

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1525 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ezcolortrading.com 
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Stats for 6E (3-11) Divergence signals (without Ergodic filter)

Period: 17 Jan to 17 Feb 2011 (24 trading mornings)
Time: 8:30 am to 11:30 am EST
PT/SL: 6/6 (no SL adjustment or trail)
No Counter-trend signals and not taking those between MAs or close to S/R
Oh, also ignored news and market open ..

No of Trades: 33
No of Winners: 31 x 6 = 186
No of Losers: 2 x -6 = -12
Nett Pips Before Commission: 174
Win%: 93.93%

Note: 4 mornings Nil signal. 14 out of 33 trades better entry using regular range chart, ie 8 trades 1 pip and 6 trades 2 pips.

Need more patience to trade 6E because

1. Often 1-2 trades per morning .. lots of waiting time
2. 10 Feb was the only morning offered 4 signals (3 winners and 1 loser)

Continue enjoying your day.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1526 (permalink)
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Wgreenie, your constant efforts only brings me one word : RESPECT!

I'm just scared that you are an analyzer and not a trader. Just set your rules and trade the damned thing!!!

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  #1527 (permalink)
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MetalTrade View Post
Wgreenie, your constant efforts only brings me one word : RESPECT!

I'm just scared that you are an analyzer and not a trader. Just set your rules and trade the damned thing!!!

It's ok to be an analyzer. I am an analyzer, and analyzers need to trade mechanical methods based on statistical analysis. I think Beth is on her way to figuring out if she does fall in or out of the analyzer camp, I suspect she is in. But, once the analysis is all done, then you will have to trust the data, and just start pulling the trigger. The system will prove itself.

The difference between discretionary traders and mechanical traders is that discretionary traders do the analysis before every trade, and mechanical traders do the analysis once, and then become a robot, trusting that the stats will keep them profitable.

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  #1528 (permalink)
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MetalTrade View Post
Wgreenie, your constant efforts only brings me one word : RESPECT!

I'm just scared that you are an analyzer and not a trader. Just set your rules and trade the damned thing!!!

Thanks MetalTrade for your on-going support incl reminders! No worries .. I never thought I am analytical .. guess many think I am lol .. smile ..

I'm done with almost all analytical work (I do plan to do more historical stats on 6E so that it has at least 100 signals) .. now focus on internal .. mindset. With the recommendation of a trading friend, I just memorized the following:

A probabilistic trading mindset consists of 5 fundamental truths:

1) Anything can happen
2) You can make $ without knowing what is going to happen next
3) There is a random distribution of wins and losses that define an edge
4) An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over another
5) Every moment in the market is unique

I am a consistent winner because: (The 7 principles of consistency)

1) I objectively identify my edges
2) I predefine the risk of every trade
3) I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade
4) I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation
5) I pay myself as the market makes money available to me
6) I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors
7) I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and therefore never violate them

As of this moment, I plan to be on live again next Tue. Am striving to have the above ingrained in my petite head by then.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1529 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
It's ok to be an analyzer. I am an analyzer, and analyzers need to trade mechanical methods based on statistical analysis. I think Beth is on her way to figuring out if she does fall in or out of the analyzer camp, I suspect she is in. But, once the analysis is all done, then you will have to trust the data, and just start pulling the trigger. The system will prove itself.

The difference between discretionary traders and mechanical traders is that discretionary traders do the analysis before every trade, and mechanical traders do the analysis once, and then become a robot, trusting that the stats will keep them profitable.

Yes Monpere, I am in the process to become a mechanical trader, ie turning myself to a robot. Wish me luck!

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
 
  #1530 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.ezcolortrading.com 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
Posts: 1,773 since Dec 2009
Thanks: 1,258 given, 1,196 received


MetalTrade is going to "kill" me as I was working on 6E stats again tonight. Here it comes the updated report:

Stats for 6E (3-11) Divergence signals (without Ergodic filter)

Period: 9 Dec 2010 to 17 Feb 2011 (50 trading mornings)
Time: 8:30 am to 11:30 am EST
PT/SL: 6/6 (no SL adjustment or trail)
No Counter-trend signals and not taking those between MAs or close to S/R
Oh, also ignored news and market open ..

No of Trades: 64
No of Winners: 54 x 6 = 324
No of Losers: 10 x -6 = -60
Nett Pips Before Commission: 264
Win%: 84.38%

Note: 11 mornings Nil signal. 27 out of 64 trades better entry using regular range chart, ie 12 trades 1 pip, 12 trades 2 pips and 3 trades 3 pips. HA entry ones did impact on the result, ie adding 2 winners to the above tabulation lol.

Too bad that the Mar contract has not given me enough signals to reach 100. Having said that, I am officially done with my stats assignment.

For the next few days, I will focus on automating my head/heart.

Thanks everyone! Enjoy a Relaxing Long weekend. Will be back next week.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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