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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions
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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

  #1491 (permalink)
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pfg doesn't have micro they only have mini and standards, which makes sense, micro is too small

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  #1492 (permalink)
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Cl Short!

Cl short now is low risk high reward IMOP!

Incometrade
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  #1493 (permalink)
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incometrade View Post
I have been following your post since the begining and I must say that scalping is going to be extremely hard. your targets are so small and the commisions are just going to eat away any profits. Do something today, add up your average trades per week. Even if your win loss is 8 out of 10 you still pay commisions on all of them you know what I mean. You must have a risk reward much greater than what I think your going after. It's as simpl as price action, very easy to see if you step back and just watch prices on 30,60,daily chart and enter off a 1,3 5 min.

You guys need to stop over simplifying trading. New traders read posts like these, get a false sense of the reality of trading. When you're already an accomplished trader, what seems easy, simple and 2nd nature for you, may not be that evident for someone outside your brain. If you are going to say yeah, it's easy, watch the 15m, 30m, daily, and enter on the 1,2,3 min, then you better tell them exactly what you are doing that makes it 'easy', otherwise, it's a dangerous precedence to set. If it was that easy we'd all be throwing cash around like in your avatar.

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  #1494 (permalink)
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Thanks

I was not saying it was easy, I just was saying don't make it more complicated than it is and taking 1/1 risk reward is going to kill you when commisions are 5 bucks. Indicators are telling after the fact simple as that no sugar coating!

The levels are there on any chart reguardless of time is what I'm saying, lower time will decress your exposure.

Incometrade
 
  #1495 (permalink)
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Big Big Thank You for the additional tips incl Forex. At this point, I would like to focus on trading Futures else I have to start the whole learning process again. Can't afford it both mentally and physically.

I went through my library last night and plan to re-read some emotion/stress-related materials incl listening to some hypnosis audio-clips. I also plan to prepare a mind map (like a brainstorming session) to uncover what're in my petite head that may be Pros and Cons to my trading business. I may even consider re-organizing the trading station to give me more breathing space.

Just got some sound advice from a trading friend .. that may be it!

Quote

The way I see a trader having problems in pulling triggers are that they haven't worked out the statistics in their trading systems. For example, if I know that my signals have a winning rate of 60% and a risk to reward of 1:2 and my systems gives me 20 signals a day. I know I am going to end up positive even if I have 5 or 6 consecutive losers because the numbers are on my side. If your system doesn't give you many signals a day, then you need to have higher winning rate etc.

Of course, I also need to be sure that I have good money management rules. I need to know that I have sufficient money to not blow my account even when I have 10 consecutive losers. This also gives me the comfort to pull the trigger. You need to have sound money management to make sure that you can benefit from the X% winning rate.

Unquote

I will prepare the suggested stats .. having some solid data (even historical) help! Plus I may consider a 1-week try out program offers by Top Step Trader. If I can reach their weekly objective, it will validate my system and more on my trading skill.

For today, I do not spot any 6E/CL divergence signals that I like to trade. Some regular CL ones were good though they're not on my plan. Instead, I took an EMD one (SL 6 was good) and unfortunately did not work out. I let it run itself (almost forgot about it) until it got stopped out. Do not feel too bad even it's a losing trade. Post-trading review: If I was watching it like a hawk, I probably chose to exit early for -2/-4. Good or bad?!!

I may take a break from watching the charts/markets this week and focus on addressing the emotion issues.

Take care and Happy & Successful Ticks!

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1496 (permalink)
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Stats for CL (3-11) Divergence signals (without Ergodic filter)

Period: 17 Jan to 15 Feb 2011 (22 trading mornings)
Time: 8:30 am to 11:30 am EST
PT/SL: 5/6 (no SL adjustment or trail)
No Counter-trend signals
Oh, also ignored news and market open ..

1. Taking all signals (not using any filters + taking trades between MAs and/or close to Support/Resistance)

No of Signals: 229 (incl 59 no fill)
No of Trades: 170
No of Winners: 105 x 5 = 525
No of Losers: 65 x -6 = -390
Nett Pips Before Commission: 135
Win%: 61.76%

2. Not taking all signals esp those between MAs and/or close to Support/Resistance

No of Trades: 101
No of Winners: 75 x 5 = 375
No of Losers: 26 x -6 = -156
Nett Pips Before Commission: 219
Win%: 74.26%

Note: I am confident that Ergodic will further enhance the Win% even some of the winning trades will be missed.

Now I need to digest the above information lol!

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!

Last edited by wgreenie; February 15th, 2011 at 07:33 PM. Reason: Forgot to mention no counter-trend signals
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  #1497 (permalink)
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wgreenie View Post
The way I see a trader having problems in pulling triggers are that they haven't worked out the statistics in their trading systems. For example, if I know that my signals have a winning rate of 60% and a risk to reward of 1:2 and my systems gives me 20 signals a day. I know I am going to end up positive even if I have 5 or 6 consecutive losers because the numbers are on my side. If your system doesn't give you many signals a day, then you need to have higher winning rate etc.

Of course, I also need to be sure that I have good money management rules. I need to know that I have sufficient money to not blow my account even when I have 10 consecutive losers. This also gives me the comfort to pull the trigger. You need to have sound money management to make sure that you can benefit from the X% winning rate.

Very true with one important caveat -- your execution must be flawless and/or you must recognize immediately any time your execution is sub-par, otherwise you will plow thru taking more and more trades waiting for your winning trade per your research, only to later realize you've not been following your own rules. I find the execution is a more challenging aspect than the research.

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  #1498 (permalink)
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I massaged the data a little bit and replaced PT 5 with 6.

1. Taking all signals (not using any filters + taking trades between MAs and/or close to Support/Resistance)

No of Signals: 229 (incl 59 no fill)
No of Trades: 170
No of Winners: 104 x 6 = 624 (from 525)
No of Losers: 66 x -6 = -396 (from 390)
Nett Pips Before Commission: 228 (from 135)
Win%: 61.18% (from 61.76%)

2. Not taking all signals esp those between MAs and/or close to Support/Resistance

No of Trades: 101
No of Winners: 73 x 6 = 438 (from 375)
No of Losers: 28 x -6 = -168 (from -156)
Nett Pips Before Commission: 270 (from 219)
Win%: 72.28% (from 74.26%)

I tried PT 7 and 8 as well. Not as promising though there're over 60 trades generated 10 or more pips. To have a second contract may capture some runners .. which will happen at a later stage for me. I tabulated the enclosed daily results (based on Item 2. above). Most mornings had at least 1 losing trade (4 being the worst) + I never imagine taking more than 3 trades per day. To be a scalper, I need to adapt to this norm, ie taking all or most signals meeting my rules during the assigned hours.

Reality check .. Can I manage and maintain a clear head from one signal to another .. say recovering from a losing trade (or 2-3 in a row) and continue placing another one like a robot? I need to think ..

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1499 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Very true with one important caveat -- your execution must be flawless and/or you must recognize immediately any time your execution is sub-par, otherwise you will plow thru taking more and more trades waiting for your winning trade per your research, only to later realize you've not been following your own rules. I find the execution is a more challenging aspect than the research.

Mike

Mike I couldn't agree with you more. I am an analytical machine, I can crunch statistical probabilities, refine strategies, tweak indicators etc etc all day. Excel spreadsheets are my version of Xbox but analysis is the easiest part of trading for me. If I could get paid for backtesting (manually included) I would be a rich rich man. Before I started trading I would fly on a plane with printed out excel spreadsheets of trades and do statistical analysis by hand tirelessly.

Sadly, your ability to design profitable entry rules does not pay you. Trading pays you and trading unless you are full algo is discretionary. If you get a buy signal 30 seconds after a horrendous jobs number will you take it? I hope not and by that rationale you can talk your way out of every trade. Ok now I'm talking about myself.

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  #1500 (permalink)
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Quoting 
The way I see a trader having problems in pulling triggers are that they haven't worked out the statistics in their trading systems. For example, if I know that my signals have a winning rate of 60% and a risk to reward of 1:2 and my systems gives me 20 signals a day. I know I am going to end up positive even if I have 5 or 6 consecutive losers because the numbers are on my side. If your system doesn't give you many signals a day, then you need to have higher winning rate etc.

Of course, I also need to be sure that I have good money management rules. I need to know that I have sufficient money to not blow my account even when I have 10 consecutive losers. This also gives me the comfort to pull the trigger. You need to have sound money management to make sure that you can benefit from the X% winning rate.

Dude, who wrote that quote? That sounds exactly like something I would write . But, once you make the decision to go down the path of relying on the numbers though, you have to commit to it. Because, at 2:30 pm, if you start saying, hmmm, I'm gonna skip this entry because it looks like it might fail, you might as well throw all the statistics out the window, because your numbers then automatically become meaningless. Not too many people can just pull the trigger even if they feel uncomfortable with the trade.

I have been known to take 5 losers in a row, when I was 80% sure they were all gonna fail, and I had no hesitation pulling the trigger the 6th time, because I knew based on my numbers, It will take 15 losers in a row for me to have a losing day. Do you know how much peace of mind that affords you? Those numbers sound extravagant, but they work because I trade with at strict fixed 2:1 reward/risk ratio. It will not be easy to do if your are trading less then 1:1 ratio, i.e. 6 tick stop 5 tick target. As I've said elswhere, I went from having a breakeven to losing 1:1 scalping method, to being near 100% profitable daily, by changing one thing, doubling my target. Of course you have to also look at the numbers and verify that your method and instrument can support that new target size on most of your trades.

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