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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions
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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

  #1461 (permalink)
Elite Member
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MetalTrade View Post
I personally would not trade a strategy that is based on scalping 3 ticks. That's just....nothing. Not worth the effort of waiting for a setup. If you do only a few trades a day you cannot scalp for 3 ticks. If you would trade 200 trades a day that might work but not 1 or 2 or 3.

Many beginners in daytrading start thinking they can earn a living with scalping a few ticks. That's not going to work. It's a beginners error.

I would strongly urge you to question yourself is this really a good trading technique you are using because now you are forcing yourself to scalp for 3 ticks ? What will be your stop loss if you scalp for 3 ticks ? 2 ? I really don't think it's a good idea.

I shouldn't be giving you advise since you are way longer than me in this game and studied so much harder than me, but there seems to be another problem. If you only take a few trades a day, how come you are so scared to take them ? Is your account big enough ? Can you deal with losing days ? By reading your last posts I don't think your problem is the profit target but it's rather your confidence in trading style. Why did you added another indicator in the last months ? Why do you need again that 'extra' confirmation to make sure you are correct ? .

If you are scalping for 3 ticks, then most likely you will be trading with a less then 1:1 reward/risk ratio. I believe that is lunacy. A few can do it, but most will fail at it, so I don't advise it. I have the same trading personality as Beth. I am very risk averse, and I am mainly a divergence trader, which I believe she is also, at least a few weeks ago I believe she was trading eminisniper divergences. We are actually drawn to the same instruments and time frames CL 3 range, although I am partial to GC 3 range now. The wiggles on CL are often more then 3 or 4 ticks, but not as much on GC, so I find I get fewer stop outs and better win percentage on GC.

I advise trading a 3 range bar with a 6 tick target. The moment you get 2 bars printed in the direction of your trade, you are winner. If you put your stop behind your entry bar, that gives nearly 2:1 reward/risk, you can afford 2 losers for every winner and still break even. You have to have 3 losers for every winner to loose money. On a 3 range bar, I enter at the close, stop a 4 ticks, target at 6 ticks, stop gets moved to 3 ticks with 1 tick profit, that gets me to a full 2:1 ratio, but if you leave your stop at 4 ticks you still have a good risk/reward.

Most people approach trading as how many ticks can I make, I approach it as how many losers can I take, and still be profitable. But, that approach is founded in the law of large numbers, and assumes you will be taking a statistically significant number of trades. I shoot for about 10+ trades a day, but as a scalper you should expect to take more trades then trend riders. If you only want to take 2 or 3 trades a day, then this approach is less effective.


Last edited by monpere; February 12th, 2011 at 10:39 AM.
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  #1462 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
Cool, I am happy to be wrong

Mike

you are too far ahead that you dont remember what it like (the find your setup that suites your personality so that you feel comfortable enough to stick with it part).

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  #1463 (permalink)
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cory View Post
you are too far ahead that you dont remember what it like (the find your setup that suites your personality so that you feel comfortable enough to stick with it part).

This is from personal experience and I'm guessing others have had the same experience I've had. From a beginner to another beginner:

I think a lot of people struggle finding the setup that suites their style because they decide on a maximum loss in dollar per trade that they are comfortable with. Then they curve fit a pretty chart with the right range to fit that stop due to the cost of tick in futures. The problem with this method is the instrument / market don't play by those rules. They miss the fact that time is not a factor when they backtest with range charts. Then the real live moving chart messes with them when they see the range chart surge and jump around in real life. I could never get over the hump of adjusting to a range chart live vs. how my charts looked when they were static. I'm sure part of it was time in the seat.

Beth, it looks like you are going through this too since you are always changing your charts. You are not letting yourself get used to the chart in real life. Just a friendly observation.

When I went to minute charts my backtesting became realistic because it was based on time. The chart slowed down and I started seeing it. However I didn't like the cost of the stops based on the pivots. What to do? Find the instrument that fit the market, stops and my comfort. For me right now it is Forex because I can trade with the stops the market gives and keep it in the cost of what I am comfortable. (not a recommendation just what I did).

I agree with Big Mike. Stop changing your charts. Get good at understanding the market not the indicators. Watch the market and talk yourself through what you will think will happen next and why based on sound market movements. Look at what the market does when it approaches a prior high. Look at what the market does when it pulls back. How does the market move on your chart?

Then go back to the indicators. Indicators should be telling you something about the market that you already know, i.e. put the indicators on there that help you see something after you have figured out what you want to see.

For example, I wanted to trade pull backs in a trend. What's the best indicator for that? It doesn't matter. There isn't one. I can make them all look the same if they are an oscillator (See the attached). Most indicators tell the same thing since they are based on the same thing (open/close/high/low and potentially volume).

Read this about indicators
Multicollinearity - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

I used to have the same type of indicators filtering themselves. How much sense does it make to have an oscillator filter another oscillator filtering another oscillator? That's what I tried.

Now, this is not a bashing of indicators post because regardless of what anyone tells you they all use indicators. A bar type is just a bundling of prior prices and therefore and indicator. The DOM with the limit orders and price movement is an indicator.

I'm just trying to say the market has become much more clear to me when I stepped back and looked at it based on what it does ( Trend / Cycle / Consolidate / Reverse). Then I added the few indicators that looked good to me and the chart has become very stable for me. Of course I'm always looking for that indicator that helps me see what I want to see better. But the core of my chart has not changed in 6 months and I'm trading the best I've ever traded, even when I have those demon trades.

Good luck Beth

Andrew

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  #1464 (permalink)
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Great post AR...

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  #1465 (permalink)
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AR01 View Post
...
I agree with Big Mike. Stop changing your charts. Get good at understanding the market not the indicators.
....

I agree with your post in it's entirety. But I would also say that the other approach is to choose an indicator or small set of indicators and learn them well, and get good at understanding what they are telling you. That is what I did. My indicators of choice are RSI combined with Stochastics, and as I've said in other post, I learned them well enough that I could actually trade them without even looking at price. I can pretty accurately tell you what price is doing just by looking at what these indicators look like in combination with a 20EMA without price bars. Or I can say, if this bar does this, it's gonna push my stochastic this way, and therefore I'm not gonna get a signal in the next 4 bars, or the next green bar is gonna trigger a signal on my RSI. So, you get to the point where you can anticipate the signals several bars before they happen. But either way, choose a camp, and learn everything about it.

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  #1466 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
I agree with your post in it's entirety. But I would also say that the other approach is to choose an indicator or small set of indicators and learn them well, and get good at understanding what they are telling you. That is what I did. My indicators of choice are RSI combined with Stochastics, and as I've said in other post, I learned them well enough that I could actually trade them without even looking at price. I can petty accurately tell you what price is doing just by looking at what these indicators look like in combination with a 20EMA without price bars. Or I can say, if this bar does this, it's gonna push my stochastic this way, and therefore I'm not gonna get a signal in the next 4 bars. So, you get to the point where you can anticipate the signals several bars before they happen. But either way, choose a camp, and learn everything about it.

Different direction, same result, good post.

Andrew

 
  #1467 (permalink)
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Thanks everyone for your prompt guidance incl lots of good tips and sensible advice. I just finished reading them and need some time to digest.

It's scary when Mike suggested a 2-week program with 3 trades per day! Remember it took me months to complete the 15-trade one.

For the record, I stayed with a steady framework for over 3 months now (since end Oct). Yes, for the first 1.5 months, I kept my preferred safety wheels (eg D3 Divergence and auto trend line). Ergodic has been the most recent addition because there're minimal good divergence signals for 6E in Jan. I started trading CL with the same reason, ie it's been giving more divergence signals and I don't trust regular 6E signals in view of its "undecided" personality.

I agree with Mike that "execution" is the challenge right now .. no longer system/indicator-related. BTW: Thank you Cory for your crispy supporting posts! I do think I'm on the right track and have been more focussed. I also agree with MetalTrade, Monpere and AR01 that I must adapt myself to a market that meets my trading style + a rewarding risk/reward ratio. I will put on my thinking hat and see what I may come up with.

UKNOWHO is working today yet gave me an order that I have to stay away from the trading station for the weekend. He double-checked me on the phone too. I better posted this before his return.

My heartfelt thanks again to you all! Take care.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1468 (permalink)
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Thanks Andrew for the Multicollinearity post. It's a great reminder to simplify my charts. Yes, I was good at having a bunch of indicators (same category) on my "old" charts. Now only have 1 momentum indicator + Ergodic other than the MAs. I have 2 different Ergodic settings because the faster one gives me a heads-up while the slower one "when heading the same direction" validates it. The overlay is optional though it does make the crossover more legible.

I use 3-Range HA for entry (safer than regular 3-Range IMHO with entry at a later point) + an "almost" naked regular 3-Range one on the side. It does not have MAs/momentum/Ergodic indicators on .. rather the news indicator (SOH around important news) and alerts me completion of the current bar. Too bad that I have not come across a projected range indicator that will work for HA. If it does exist, please give me a shout and I can focus on 1 chart .. smile ..

Back to my thinking mode.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1469 (permalink)
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Good job Beth. Regardless of what I post or say, or what others post and say, the only thing that is important is what you do with it at the end of the day. You have to be comfortable with it, understand it, trust it, embrace it, etc -- whatever method you use.

This is why I firmly believe that someone cannot simply copy someone elses trading method and be as profitable as the originator of the method. The method usually ends up getting far too much credit. I think it was Richard or one of the Turtles that said he could post a full page ad in the WSJ with instructions on what to buy and sell, and most people wouldn't follow it. I believe this, I've witnessed this with my own eyes hundreds of times now (mainly through the help of the forum).

So the important thing is to "take" a bit from each suggestion, and make it your own. Hopefully a few posts/suggestions also include some eye-opening content to make you think and challenge your assumptions, it's always good I think to challenge your assumptions so you can either verify them or throw them out. BTW, another really great way to do just that is to mentor someone else. Find a new trader and start mentoring them, in doing so I've found (personal experience) that I started questioning some of what I thought was true, and realized it was in fact not, and I learned a great deal from it -- probably just as much if not more than the person I was teaching.

Keep moving forward. As long as you move forward, you are doing a great job.

Mike

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  #1470 (permalink)
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MetalTrade View Post
If you only take a few trades a day, how come you are so scared to take them ? Is your account big enough ? Can you deal with losing days ? By reading your last posts I don't think your problem is the profit target but it's rather your confidence in trading style. Why did you added another indicator in the last months ? Why do you need again that 'extra' confirmation to make sure you are correct ? .

Hi MetalTrade

Let me address your raised issues as follows:

First, I used to be a perfectionist .. rarely (almost want to say never) think I did well even my employers/customers/co-workers/friends praised me all the time. Being in the trading business for almost 2 years, I have been scoring myself in the red zone since Day 1. To be an over-demanding boss (myself), it's very challenging to perform up to par so far.

Second, it's a solid reality that no 100% profitable holy grail out there. If there's a thing (or more than one) that I can do to add an extra % to the win rate, I will. That explains why my never-ending interests in trying new indicators/methods that may come my way. For example, the most recent addition Ergodic. I spent over 50 hours to better understand a few things on the lines. Time well spent? Yes, even it's tough.

Third, dealing with a losing trade esp its fullstop was hit. Really hard. Used to feel very bad/sad for the whole day (even in my dreams). The last double-SL day (5 Jan) taught me a big lesson. I believe I am better equipped (mentally) for the next one which is inevitable. I hope I am more competent in managing "losing" trades and enjoy some post-trading satisfaction.

Maybe it's in my blood that I take every losing trade too seriously .. like a personal defeat! Did I mention before that I am a hyper-tension type? It's getting better after relocation .. still there 80% lol!

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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