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Good job. This thread is about your journey, so there is no right or wrong. It is what it is. But I do recommend taking a few steps back every now and then, look at what is in front of you in an objective manner, decide what is really working and what isn't, decide where you are spending the majority of your time and whether or not that time is well spent, and last decide if you feel good about your current work and current project or if you feel like you are forcing it.
I often get caught up in some project and just keep forcing it and forcing it before what I am left with barely resembles what I began with. At that point it becomes obvious the time spent on such a project is really not fruitful.
It's ok to experiment and you don't know what works until you know what doesn't, just remember to poke your head out above water every now and then
Trading: Mini and micro US Indexes/ DAX/ FX/VIX/GOLD
Posts: 180 since Apr 2010
Thanks Given: 53
Thanks Received: 164
Beth,
It is my belief that we as humans are the best judges of market sentiment. We have a great ability to almost subconsciously weigh numerous strands of information to gain a view on possible direction. No algorithm is capable of the span and flexibility of the human mind. Like an oak we may move gracefully and nimbley in the breeze but our roots must be firm and unwaivering. It's a tough combo but you are the best indicator and all you need is a simple uncluttered chart. All indicators are lagging, only price alone and our understanding of it is important. I've enjoyed your posts because it reminds me of my search for the answers. I discovered I could read price and sentiment better than any piece of code. It is an art and not a science, I think.
Thanks Big Mike for your kind encouragement and sharing!
When I was a softskills trainer, I did recommend PAUSE to assess one's position. Believe it or not, PAUSE is very very powerful! With your kind reminder, I am due for a PAUSE this weekend .. haha ..
Oh, for your information, I don't swim. Sooo, I have to stay above water ALL THE TIME! Just pulling your leg Mike.
That's great news ZCars! With the continuous guidance and sharing of the BM family members (incl YOU of course), I've started to realize the importance of Price and our own understanding (interpretation). I wasn't aware of the fact that most indicators are lagging ones until some members pointed it out.
So much to learn and I will review my progress this weekend. Thanks again.
Trading: Mini and micro US Indexes/ DAX/ FX/VIX/GOLD
Posts: 180 since Apr 2010
Thanks Given: 53
Thanks Received: 164
The market usually tries something twice then tries the opposite. Support/ resistance and trend. I've found knowing when a market is likely to trend and let it run or take a scalp because it's within a range is key to building one's account balance.
if you look at yesterday Values area you will see that the market open today above.
so according to the 80% rule you need to think only long if market stay above that , you confirmation is the Initial balance (first hour of the trading day)
in cases like today you need to look at your triggers and look only for longs (no shorts allows )
you are right about your analysis keep doing a good job!!!
Ben
Keep on sowing your seed, for you never know which will grow -- perhaps it all will.
Thanks ZCars. I notice the earlier part, ie tries something twice before breaking up or down. Not sure if I can tell if it's trending. Probably need more experience LOL!
Thanks Ben for guiding me along! I went through the 80% rule strategy a few times and not 100% sure about Scenario 5 especially Responsive mind frame. Maybe you will cover it this Sun please.
My guess on Scenario 5/Responsive mind frame:
1. Market opens and trades within the Value Area. Occasionally tries to break the VAH and/or VAL
2. Response Activity Strategy: Sell high when't above VAH or Buy low when it's below VAL
3. No trade when it's within the Value Area
A very useful lesson this morning before completion of the Initial Balance (1st hour after market opens). I learned how to read a price bar LOL!
My confession: I haven't been paying enough attention to understand it until this morning. It's 9:40 am and price bar @10:00 started plotting! How come I thought?! I even posted a thread asking for help - gosh .. Then I looked at a 5-minute chart and figured it out. I was really embarrassed to expose my stupidity!!
Back to my learning/observation this morning:
1. Market Profile
i) 30-minute MP Chart - 80% Rule Strategy for Value Area
You will notice from the 30-minute chart that it's Scenario 1 again (same as yesterday). Market opened above the previous day's value area (supposed to be 1204.5-1198.5 based on yesterday's closing) and was able to hold high on subsequent tests (first 2 30-minute brackets). Long only if one chooses to stay with the trend!
For entry point, I have a 4-Range chart using Perry's set-up. Notice the ellipses on both 30-minute and 4-Range charts around 10:30 am. Would like to draw your attention to the top left box on the 4-Range chart. It has CHOP, NO TRADE, TRADE, END OF TREND alerts based on the ADX indicator on Panel 4. I've added an additional audio alert for NO TRADE .. smile ..
Questions please:
1) Why yesterday's value area has changed to 1207-1201 (incl POC too)?? I checked the 5-minute MP chart, its previous day's VA and POC have not changed.
2) After the first long, how can one identify more trade signals? Or it serves to give one an idea of the overall trend. Then one should use a smaller timeframe chart to identify trade signals.
ii) 5-minute MP Chart
I learned about the Universal method, ie using NTR (Natural Trading Range) based on VPCs (Virgin or Naked Point of Control). As the market continues making new high everyday, I am a little lost on how to use this method to trigger trade signals. May do more research and/or focus on the 80% Rule as a start.
2. SuperTrend
It has not generated any trade between 9:45 am and 10:00 am. No trade this morning.
My Next Move:
1. Market Profile
i. A trading peer has shared a bootcamp video with me. I will start watching it this afternoon and tomorrow. Note to Ben: I'm getting myself more prepared for your webinar!
ii. 80% Rule Strategy
Will start using 30-minute and 4-Range charts to practise what I've learned from this strategy. Thanks to Ben again for sharing it with us.
2. Trade Set-up & Instruments
i. YM - Continue sim-trading 2 strategies using combo of The Wizard, d9 and futures.io (formerly BMT).
ii. ES - Market Profile
iii. 6E - I learned from some trading friends that 6E is more defined and follows technical pattern. Will include it in my monitoring list.
to assess one's position. Believe it or not, PAUSE is very very powerful! With your kind reminder, I am due for a PAUSE this weekend .. haha ..
)
