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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions
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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

  #1381 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
Wow , great details and good for you . Good move sticking to a plan and having one in the first place which leads me to ask - when you move your stops in your favor , is it according to some objective criteria like PA or an oscillator ? Or yur just feeling like you should ? And dont beat yourself up about the short and the support 1 pip away because after the loser trade yur gonna see all types of support if its a loser and prolly not when it wins . Id like to hear what the stop moving plan is though , if its here somewhere please forgive me for not seeing it , thanks . For me I found its best when I move the stop in my favor according to the dips and rallies of an oscillator , like a CCI .

I read recently from a pretty experience trader that he recommends after years of writing and studying trailing stop systems for institutions that any trail stop is counter productive. If you have a target and a stop, then the only valid statistical place to move the stop is break even or BE+1 if you want to pay for the trade. Other wise, leave the stops in their original place and just wait for the target to be hit. He said his analysis convinced him to place the trade, be all in all out or at the very most take off some half way to the target and let the rest ride. The point is, once you start moving trailing stops up or down, it becomes difficult to really tell if your entry/exit rules are valid over a long period of time. His point is that every time you move a stop, you have created another trading system with different rules than what you entered the trade with.

Now I am not sure I 100% subscribe to this, but he is more experienced than me and he generally trades with pretty large targets. So I have begun experimenting with this as well. Harder to do than to say of course but I think once my target has painted even if it is not filled I will move my stop to BE+1. Just a thought.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1382 (permalink)
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aztrader9 View Post
I read recently from a pretty experience trader that he recommends after years of writing and studying trailing stop systems for institutions that any trail stop is counter productive. If you have a target and a stop, then the only valid statistical place to move the stop is break even or BE+1 if you want to pay for the trade. Other wise, leave the stops in their original place and just wait for the target to be hit. He said his analysis convinced him to place the trade, be all in all out or at the very most take off some half way to the target and let the rest ride. The point is, once you start moving trailing stops up or down, it becomes difficult to really tell if your entry/exit rules are valid over a long period of time. His point is that every time you move a stop, you have created another trading system with different rules than what you entered the trade with.

Now I am not sure I 100% subscribe to this, but he is more experienced than me and he generally trades with pretty large targets. So I have begun experimenting with this as well. Harder to do than to say of course but I think once my target has painted even if it is not filled I will move my stop to BE+1. Just a thought.

The system you mention is the exact system my 'mentor' teaches. Interesting. I guess I agree 100%

Beth, per your trades, I think what is very important is that you understand what you did, why you did it and are not blaming, upset or a victim of the situation. I know that is a big step for most traders including myself, so thank you for reminding me to be very open and honest with myself.

On the stop moving, that is an easy fix. On the lack of sleep, anytime you do any big changes to your trading life, for example a new house, new child, new computer, new time schedule or new anything, then I believe you should SIM your way to live. I know some people feel SIM is worthless, but I believe that is your mindset of thinking it is worthless.

Good fortune tomorrow.

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  #1383 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
Wow , great details and good for you . Good move sticking to a plan and having one in the first place which leads me to ask - when you move your stops in your favor , is it according to some objective criteria like PA or an oscillator ? Or yur just feeling like you should ? And dont beat yourself up about the short and the support 1 pip away because after the loser trade yur gonna see all types of support if its a loser and prolly not when it wins . Id like to hear what the stop moving plan is though , if its here somewhere please forgive me for not seeing it , thanks . For me I found its best when I move the stop in my favor according to the dips and rallies of an oscillator , like a CCI .

Hi Eric

Yes, I do have rules for placing the initial SL + the logic of using a 6-pip SL cushion most of the time. Let me elaborate as follows:

1. Hard stop at 6 pips (bearing in mind that I am using a 3-Range chart .. 6 is often enough to provide the required room for a trade)

2. 1 or 2 pips above or below the most recent Swing High/Low (7-8 is often good for this option)

3. When the trade moves 4 pips in my favor, adjust SL to -2 or BE (I have an ATM strategy for the same)

Bottom line: reward/risk ratio close to 1:1. If I get a bad fill or I notice there's only enough room for 4-6 pips PT and I decide to take the signal, I will adjust SL upon entry.

Warnings for an Early Exit

I do have rules as well. For example,

1) Price stalls and I do not like the price movement

2) Close to an important news item

3) The osc indicator alerts me potential trend reversal

++

As I only had about 5 hours sleep since Sunday when I did the two trades earlier, I can honestly tell you that my head was not functioning at all. Yes, I could see the signals yet I did not have a clear head to manage them after entry. For the first trade, I moved SL twice "hoping" that the market would go to my direction. The SL adjustments were not based on any sound trading reasons unfortunately not to mention following my trading rules .. sigh ..

Now having a few hours sleep, I feel a little better though my eyes are still semi-closed .. haha .. I will spend the afternoon to recuperate and get ready for a regular trading session tomorrow.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1384 (permalink)
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aztrader9 View Post
I read recently from a pretty experience trader that he recommends after years of writing and studying trailing stop systems for institutions that any trail stop is counter productive. If you have a target and a stop, then the only valid statistical place to move the stop is break even or BE+1 if you want to pay for the trade. Other wise, leave the stops in their original place and just wait for the target to be hit. He said his analysis convinced him to place the trade, be all in all out or at the very most take off some half way to the target and let the rest ride. The point is, once you start moving trailing stops up or down, it becomes difficult to really tell if your entry/exit rules are valid over a long period of time. His point is that every time you move a stop, you have created another trading system with different rules than what you entered the trade with.

Now I am not sure I 100% subscribe to this, but he is more experienced than me and he generally trades with pretty large targets. So I have begun experimenting with this as well. Harder to do than to say of course but I think once my target has painted even if it is not filled I will move my stop to BE+1. Just a thought.

Thanks Aztrader9 for your kind sharing. I read about a similar strategy before. Once I am doing 2-contract trades, I will probably opt for BE+1 for the potential runner. You know me. I love preserving my precious capital lol!

See see .. I was not myself earlier when I moved SL and not adjusting my PT to get out .... oooo .. Now I can tease myself .. meaning I've recovered from my fall and move forward .. smile ..

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1385 (permalink)
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aztrader9 View Post
I read recently from a pretty experience trader that he recommends after years of writing and studying trailing stop systems for institutions that any trail stop is counter productive. If you have a target and a stop, then the only valid statistical place to move the stop is break even or BE+1 if you want to pay for the trade. Other wise, leave the stops in their original place and just wait for the target to be hit. He said his analysis convinced him to place the trade, be all in all out or at the very most take off some half way to the target and let the rest ride. The point is, once you start moving trailing stops up or down, it becomes difficult to really tell if your entry/exit rules are valid over a long period of time. His point is that every time you move a stop, you have created another trading system with different rules than what you entered the trade with.

Now I am not sure I 100% subscribe to this, but he is more experienced than me and he generally trades with pretty large targets. So I have begun experimenting with this as well. Harder to do than to say of course but I think once my target has painted even if it is not filled I will move my stop to BE+1. Just a thought.

I try not to let what others advise sway what I do , with all due respect . After testing ways to milk trades of maximum potential , leaving the stop where it began is counterproductive as per my experiences . The screenshot here shows a short initiated at the red elipse . Note that each time the CCI produces a peak and a decline (pink arrows) the stop is lowered above the price high . This is an example of an objective way to trail the stop for a swing trade . My analysis initiated the trade and since the plan is to objectively capture profits I didnt create another trading system . The point is that moving a stop isnt always a good idea and if you do it without a good reason then its gonna bite ya most times .

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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions-eurusd-1_5_2011-60-min-.jpg  
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  #1386 (permalink)
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If you use Ninja Trader, you can use the Shadow Strategy feature and have the best of both worlds. This lets you do what ever you want to your stop, but a sim trade runs in the background using your strategy without changing stops or targets. Then you can compare the out comes.

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  #1387 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
I try not to let what others advise sway what I do , with all due respect . After testing ways to milk trades of maximum potential , leaving the stop where it began is counterproductive as per my experiences . The screenshot here shows a short initiated at the red elipse . Note that each time the CCI produces a peak and a decline (pink arrows) the stop is lowered above the price high . This is an example of an objective way to trail the stop for a swing trade . My analysis initiated the trade and since the plan is to objectively capture profits I didnt create another trading system . The point is that moving a stop isnt always a good idea and if you do it without a good reason then its gonna bite ya most times .

Like I said, I'm not 100% convinced this other guy is right. I suppose moving stops in accordance with a predetermined plan such as you described is perfectly ok. I certainly could not argue to the contrary. I think this trader was talking about traders that are in a trade, tighten stops up with no real plan on how or where just because they are fearful of giving any back at all....I can honestly say I have done this more than once and in most cases, it was always the wrong thing to do. The reason for this is that at this point in time, I don't have a valid trail stop plan. I mostly trade for ten ticks any way and so I think the best one for me is BE+1 when the ten ticks is painted.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
  #1388 (permalink)
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wgreenie View Post
I finished reading the two Raghee books.
..

wow you're a fast reader! not like me LOL. Good summary.
(yes a pre-detemined risk reward before entering the trade.)

What stood out for me was her key idea of keeping it simple. She would strip off the indicators and add them back with the idea "how does this help me decide where to enter, exit or place my stop?"Another key point was the use of the "Chris clock angles" and her "wave" This was to make sure you were entering on a decent trend.

[my notes]
Blueprint to Build a trade
1. Where to enter the market
2. Where to set profit targets
3. Where to set stop losses.

Procedure
1. Draw your trendlines
2. Find s/r and price extensions

Guidelines
Use AND conditions for getting in (it must be x AND Y AND h)
Use OR conditions for getting out (if it g OR h or i then get out)
Look at the trade from both sides (if I am going short what do the longs see? and vice-versa)

Example of entry
Wait for a clean break of the wave
AND
Make sure it is trending at Chris-clock angles (12 to 2) or (4 to 6)
AND
CCI confirmation of >100 for an upcross of wave (or <100 for a downcross of the wave)

I'm glad to see you took action and read them. I hope something in there helped!

-------
(her "wave" looked like an envelope trading band on an EMA that she had someone program for her.)

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  #1389 (permalink)
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aztrader9 View Post
Like I said, I'm not 100% convinced this other guy is right. I suppose moving stops in accordance with a predetermined plan such as you described is perfectly ok. I certainly could not argue to the contrary. I think this trader was talking about traders that are in a trade, tighten stops up with no real plan on how or where just because they are fearful of giving any back at all....I can honestly say I have done this more than once and in most cases, it was always the wrong thing to do. The reason for this is that at this point in time, I don't have a valid trail stop plan. I mostly trade for ten ticks any way and so I think the best one for me is BE+1 when the ten ticks is painted.

I think for scalpers, and for traders trading small moves, BE+1 is the best option, you will find over the long haul, that will be more profitable then using trailing stops. For traders trading longer moves, I think trailing price pivots is the best way to trail. One alternative trailing stop for smaller moves I've tried, is to trail each bar by a couple of ticks, but only trail bars in the direction of your trade, so, for a long, only trail up bars, do not move your stop when you get a down bar, until you are stopped out, and vice versa for shorts.

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  #1390 (permalink)
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Hey Beth, hope everything is ok? Maybe I missed a vacation announcement, I'm sure it is well earned if so.

How are things?

Mike

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