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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions


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Beth's Journey to Make Her Millions

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  #1061 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Initial Balance: 615.40 - 609.90 (5.5 points)
Value Area as at 10:50 am: 615.20 - 612.70 - 611.90 (3.30 points)
Price opened @612.40
Today's High and Low as at 10:50 am: 615.40 - 609.80
VPOCs: Top 646.50 and Bottom 609.20 (almost gets touched)
Overnight High and Low: 624.50 and 612.40

Price opened above Friday's Value Area (611.40 and 599.80) and I was looking for Long. Yet it's very undecided on the 15-RangeAlt chart with a short opportunity when it broke LL 611.80. No trade as of this moment.

Beth

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  #1062 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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2 short opportunities (per enclosed) this morning which I chose not to take them.

1. First Short around 10:20 am when price broke LL 611.80. To me price movement has been very undecided for the first hour, I chose to pass.

2. Second Short around 11:40 am when price broke LL 609.80. Daily PP @609.50 and VPOC @609.20. Seemed lots of obstacles on the way. I was thinking of placing a Sell Stop @608.90. I ended up SOH and choose to wait for another clean signal.

Note:

I have a 150 tick chart (replacing the former 5-minute one) which caused confusion for the first hour. Apparently it triggered more signals + the set up is not the 15-RangeAlt one. I then realized its purpose is to detect warning for an early exit .. NOT for entry and I should focus on the 15-RangeAlt one.

Maybe it's not the right candidate to fill the gap. I tried 4-Range and 5-minute before which did not work for me. I'm going to replace the 150 tick chart with one between 6-8-Range using the 15-RangeAlt set up in the afternoon. Possibly an orientation session and not placing any real trades. Will see.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1063 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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You can tell from my earlier post that I tried OHLC on my main chart .. oooooo Using a 150-tick chart this morning gave me an idea. I just replaced the regular candle bar/OHLC with one that will tell me whether it's bearish/bullish and neutral. Sorry still playing around to fill "the gap" in my petite head.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1064 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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Chart 1: Looking at the larger picture. The blue areas are 3-day-rolling pivot ranges. They show that the downtrend has ended after the strong upmove on Friday. Today's pivot range is extremely wide. This increases the odds for a balancing day. The wide pivot range itself, in particular the pivot 3-PP should act as support. I expect a retracement to the 38.2% or 50% line. This would still be bullish.

Chart 2: The Asian Session was up. The European Session (gray range) moved around Friday's close. The opening range was established below the European Session Range. Price broke out to the downside and then retraced to the middle of the opening range. Now sitting at support in the middle of the daily pivot range.

The volume today is low. There are no exciting news to come in the afternoon. I would not be astonished if we see a mean reversion day today. This scenario would be validated by a trend line break. If a trendline break of the current downtrend does not occur, this scenario becomes increasingly unlikely.

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  #1065 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Thanks Fat Tails for sharing his TF thoughts with me. It's a great reminder that I should learn more on Trendline break soon. I still have David R's notes/charts on my to-do list. I did go through them before (incl the sym lessons) and my head spinned ... Well, a friend shared his RSI set up with me and I still have a big head understanding the signals.

I'm quite content staying with the set ups I understand though love to explore more. Guess I cannot push my brains to work too hard LOL!

I did 2 quick sim trades based on the new comer (6-Range), ie

1. First short based on its breaking S/R 609.40
2. Second short based on its breaking LL 607.90 (I've been waiting for the break since 11:45 am)

Too bad they happened during lunch! PT/SL for 6-Range 6/8 (may have to adjust them after getting more experience) and PT 8 for the second trade since lunch time has not been my favorite trading time. I will be waiting for a great signal around 2:45 pm .. smile ..

Beth

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Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1066 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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You are absolutely right. Don't follow any distractions, but follow your known setups.

I think that my idea was wrong so far. There is no trendline break.

Scenario not supported by price

This is the most important question ever, is you scenario supported by price? My scenario of a mean reversion day clearly is not supported by price, so it is no longer valid.

I am glad that I referred to the trendline break in my first post, so I do not need to feel like a complete idiot now.

I very much appreciate your thread, so posting here from time to time.

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  #1067 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
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2 more sim trades (both Short) to end the day, ie

1. First one based on its breaking Extreme OS (-2/8) @ 605.5

2. Second one based on its breaking the most recent LL @605.1 (entered @604.9)

3. Both with the same PT/SL @6 and 8

Note:

1. I placed both Sell stop orders before falling zozozo.

2. Both were triggered though not sure why the second trade ended up closing at the same price as the first trade. Will investigate.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1068 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Fat Tails View Post
You are absolutely right. Don't follow any distractions, but follow your known setups.

I think that my idea was wrong so far. There is no trendline break.

Scenario not supported by price

This is the most important question ever, is you scenario supported by price? My scenario of a mean reversion day clearly is not supported by price, so it is no longer valid.

I am glad that I referred to the trendline break in my first post, so I do not need to feel like a complete idiot now.

I very much appreciate your thread, so posting here from time to time.

Thanks Fat Tails for visiting + sharing your ideas with us.

I was distracted this morning even I used a set up (for the 150-tick chart) that I am quite familiar with (it's the KwikPop one which I used to sim-trade ES/YM between Nov and Jan). I felt like a complete fool trying to manage 2 different set ups (even both are price-driven) on 2 different timeframes - Mission impossible for me! Very scary too as I thought I may have to start my system search all over again - gosh ..

After an hour of mental struggles, I realized my stupidity and chose to replace it with one that's closer to the main set up. Another realization (very important): I should be able to identity a warning or warnings for an early exit using the existing set up and NOT looking for something substantially new. For example,

1. The 2 DM+/- thin lines (expansion, contraction and their hooking up/down)
2. ADX and FI may switch color back-and-forth

Sooo, I've decided to pay more attention to the existing indicators (incl price movement) on both 6R and 15R charts and stop searching for one that may fill my so-called gap.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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  #1069 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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wgreenie View Post
1. Only do real trades (bye bye to sim ones UFN)

What were your thoughts behind this rule? And your thoughts now? Only trying to help

Mike

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  #1070 (permalink)
 wgreenie 
Cambridge, Ontario
 
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Big Mike View Post
What were your thoughts behind this rule? And your thoughts now? Only trying to help

Mike

Hi Mike

Sim-trading has been helping me to gain confidence, test out my understanding on certain set ups incl trade/money management strategies. Since I was using different charts today (replacing the former 5-minute chart with first a 150-tick one (which turned out to be a petite disaster as the signals conflicted with the 15-RangeAlt trend) and then a 6-Range one, I did not feel comfortable to do real trades with the change. Certainly PT/SL 6/8 seems quite reasonable if I am taking trades using the 6-Range one - though the signals have to align with the 15-Range direction or price movement.

Sim-trading is very different from real trading when $$ are really at stake. Sim-trade performance over 85% is "impressive" yet I am uncertain if my real trade performance may get close to even 60%. Doubt has caused my earlier indicator search .. sigh ..

I have lots of internal dialogues these days/nights. I also mapped out different performance scenarios based on my sim-trade results for the past few months. I should be doing fine yet I still have an invisible doubt .. Maybe it's normal until I have more real trade experience. Well, I cannot sim-trade forever as it does not help my psyche anymore. Soooo I included it in the trading plan .. bye bye to sim trades, ie either real trade or no trade!

Today was an exception or excuse not to trade real. For the former aggressive me, I would go for it. For the present reserved me, I chose not to stress myself and gave myself some time to know the new comer LOL!

I am not one enjoying rules and boundaries. To be a successful/humble trader, I am doing my very best to adapt.

Beth

Good Trading is about Trading Right!
Want What the Market Wants!
Trade With the Trend!
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