I've been lurking here for quite a while, but figured I should get off my rear and start a trade journal. I have improved myself to be a roughly break even trader. I'm hoping journaling my trades can help me continue my development.
Trading plan:
(Modified 3/15/2013)
The core of my trading involves identifying support and resistance using Fibonacci retracements. I use the techniques taught by David Halsey to identify where and how to draw these retracements. In addition, I look at the overnight highs/lows, as well as the opening range to help identify support and resistance, targets, and whether I should be biased long or short.
What do I trade:
Trade CL.
When do I trade:
I only enter new trades during pit hours. Trades can be managed up until the electronic futures close.
Before trading for the day, I review the overnight price action and see if anything has changed from my end of day analysis.
How do I trade:
My trading is discretionary trading.
Depending on what type of entry I am using (fib, double bottom, etc), my stop is either at the measured move failure, or placed where the price action would invalidate my trade. In general, my max stop is 20 ticks. What ever I choose for my stop, once it is identified, my stop cannot move. After a trade is in my favor, I may move my stop in the trades direction if price action supports such stop movement.
My profit target is based both on the measured move, and overall price action. For most trades, I will place a limit order to close at the -61.8% line of the MM I entered on. Exceptions are entries that are right at big level. These will be allowed to run. Or, entries at the overnight or opening range extremes, these will have targets based on local price action.
I look for a minimum target of 30ticks.
Cheers!
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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The daily short shown in the previous post is still in play.
There was a very nice entry at 9:15 EST, however I usually do not get ready to trade to 9:30 EST due to Kid duties.
3/6/2013, Trade 1:
Short off an extension short @ 90.21.
I wanted to wait for a bigger retracement, as this felt like chasing. However, 2nd test was holding, so took entry.
The target for the daily short is 88.59. But I'll be surprised if this entry gets me there.
Failure of the extension short, sets up a counter trend trade long.
I'm looking for at least around 90.53. That is the next resistance I see. Of course, it could trade back up to the original daily entry level of 90.98. It's also getting close to news.
3/6/2013, Trade 2:
Long @ 90.24.
1st target hit
Stop to 90.18
Out BE: net 0 ticks
I'm going to watch until after the news comes out.
OK, after getting taken out of the previous trade, I noticed an extension short. Which is, in fact, a better representation of the series of measured moves.
3/6/2013, trade 4:
Back in short at 89.88. Target remains 88.59
3/6/2013, trade 6:
Short at 90.01. This is off of the original ext short anchor from the morning.
Better entry would have been 90.10, but I was too slow.
1st target hit
Stop to 90.07
Out BE, net 0 ticks
In this case the preferred entry I missed would have held. Thus I'm stopped out even with the trade not being invalidated. But rules are rules.
So, how do I handle the above situation, getting stopped out, due to missing the optimal entry? If the trade is still valid, I simply re-enter.
3/6/2013, trade 7:
Short @ 90.05. Still inside the same extension short.
1st target hit
Stop to 90.11
MM short hits target, stop to 90.06. Going to give this market the full HWB short in this range. If we break local lows again, the trail will get tighter.
Tough spot here, the extension short from the morning is still holding, and micro long broke. But the following micro short short didn't hold, and I can make a case the longs are going up in traditional MMs. I'm watching, and likely done for the day. We'll see if we get any clarity here.
[edit]
Turns out longs were still in charge. No worry's, no trade taken either way.
I felt good the whole day. I saw which direction the market was bias towards. Unfortunately, I missed an early trade, which would have been great. But that was out of my control.
I definitely think journaling helped a lot today. It really helped to keep me focused on honest to my rules. Thank Big Mike for the forum!
*this is my most important stat. The premise of this system is to enter the market in areas where a reaction sufficient to hit a first target is likely. If I'm doing my job, this should be >80%. Beyond that, it is in the hands of the market.
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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Long @ 91.16, very quick full stop out.
Net: -26 ticks
Even though we are still in the daily extension short, I read a series of MM longs, and attempted an entry.
Tricky market this morning. It looks like they are going to break it out of the daily ext short.
I'm taking things one trade at a time, but remaining nimble.
3/7/2013, trade4:
Long at 91.09
1st target hit
Stop to 91.03
Stop to 91.07
Stop to 91.10 (8:06 local time)
Stop to 91.18 (8:09)
Stopped out, net +14ticks
It is looking like the daily ext short is failing, the next resistance I see is at 92.54. However, doesn't mean we go straight there...
Poked a new high by a few ticks, not changing anything yet. If we break with authority, then we will be ext longs.
Update on trade status, the next MM long has traded and bounced. Stop remains at the failure of this long. The second picture shows this and my next resistance level. Third pic shows this resistance on the daily chart.
While I'm waiting for this trade to work, I'd like to share a thought:
One of the best things I did for my trading was to focus only on 1 instrument. I used to trade ES, TF, CL, GC, 6E all simultaneously. I thought this was best because it would give me more opportunities for successful trades. However, I could never focus properly on one market. I had many more stop outs, the gains in one market would be offset from losses in another, and it was hard to make any progress. By simply focusing on one market, CL in my case, I can give it my undivided attention.
Trying another entry on this extension long. This entry is a bit on the risky side, but I have room to the failure level of the ext long. Target for this trade is 91.97
I got a little whipsawed today, and was impatient at times. But over all I'm happy with myself for today. I am going to work on improving my trade exits for tomorrow.
After failing to take profit, and then taking a full stop, that is tough to deal with. I'm telling myself to maintain discipline, follow rules, and not look for revenge on the market. I am accountable for my results.
I've spent some time reflecting on my results for the week. All in all, I'm happy with how I am reading the price action. For the most part, I am correct on the direction the market wants to go.
Two things I am going to change and improve for next week:
1) First, my trade management sucks. The free trade technique sounds good, and does have some emotional benefits, but it has a very poor RR ratio. I analyzed all my trades this week, and I would have been much better with market based first targets, rather than fixed. Even though I would have been stopped out a few more times, this would have substantially improved my profitability.
On all my charts, I have targets denoted by the green -23% line. Price often reaches there, and I was doing nothing, other than trailing my stop. I gave back too much on each trade. I need to take profit at the profit targets my method defines.
2) I need to control my emotions better. I get way to involved with the outcome of any given trade. My judgement gets clouded and I stop objectively observing the market. This will be a continuous improvement process.
I watched futurestrader71 recent webinar and got some good ideas. I'm looking forward toward another good week next week and continuing to improve my trading.
After this early morning sell off, I am liking the long side on CL.
I am making a change to my trade management. I am no longer using a fixed 12 tick stop and a +6/-6 free trade strategy. I will be using my fib drawings to locate stops. For today, I will be trading all-in all-out, and half size from what I have been. I will be collecting live statistics on this style of trade management.
3/11/2013, trade1:
Long 91.29, target 92.38
Initial stop 91.21
Entry is now behind the full half way back, moving stop to entry
My biggest success today was keeping my emotions in check and maintaining my cool. I got a bit twisted, but did my best to wait for the next setup. I still need further work in this regard, being more patient.
My day's summary is below. At the end of the day, the net was a minor loss.
Good work, Brewer. Don't we know the need for more patience. Ever looking for ways to justify our trade entries we see in retrospect that we could have been a little more patient.
Of course, the same can be said for holding a trade that finally went our way after getting stopped out by 1 tick. On the other hand, the next time we try to "patiently wait" the market punishes us even more.
So, like ya say, "plan your trade and trade your plan" even though that loss could'a been a winner.
Ken "COTtrader"
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Thanks Ken, it is easy to over analyze trades in hindsight. That's a tough one to balance. Should I have moved my stop, or closed the trade prior to target? IMHO, that's a very bad habit to get into, unless you have a set of predefined rules to allow it.
Cheers
Since you are posting a journal I assume you are looking to spark up some convo about your plan and maybe looking for some help. With that being said I'm curious about your entry, do you use the same conditions or a similar set of patterns each time ? What conditions are you looking for to signal you that there is a good chance there is money up for grabs from the party on the wrong side of the trade?
entry is one piece of the puzzle, I'll ask about other parts of your plan later.
Good trading to you.
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3/12/2013, trade6:
Short 92.75: target 92.23, stop 92.81
I'm looking for the -61.8% target of the day's HWB short. Once, 92.49 is reached, I will trail my stop.
Out at 92.61, +14 ticks.
PS. zr1trader, I'll answer your question later on...
I like Your use of tick charts, as I feel they present certain patterns of price in a "cleaner" manner. using the fib retrace can be a tool for entry, You can also use the fib expansions for your tgt(s),or triggers to trail stop.
You have the right idea of keeping an eye on larger time frames also and not getting lost on looking at only the tick charts. I like to Keep an eye on the highs and lows of the different trading sessions, NY asia, eur. The market likes to go where the most orders are. Otherwise how will the exchange make money if they don't fill the most orders they can? That is usually why the saying , "the market goes where there is the most pain for the most people", because they have to fill all those pending orders (usually stops) in orders to make commission. the big guys need that liquidity from all the suckerz too... to enter/exit . Some things to think about, the repeatable behavior of participants in the marketplace.
Here is an example of using those fib extensions as tgts, I like the 4.23 and 5.76 exits. EOD so Right now I'm looking at the 4.76 exit door. . can tighten up trail too, Another way to skin the cat with fibs
I'm more of an all in all out guy,If I am going to cut it shorter than expected i'll tighten the trail. Personally, I leave the scaling to the deeper pockets that like to scale for liquidity reasons. I do know others who like scaling out at the fibs. Different strokes for different folks. Your biggest asset is between your ears. Cheers
Thanks for your comments zr1trader. What I am trying to do is find retracements to buy/sell, and then close the position at a measured extension. Generally, I look at what measured moves have traded in the past, and then look to participate in the next in the series.
I welcome your comments. My trade plan is under construction, if you will.
.14 and .86 fibs are a good place to start looking for the blowout liquidation of suckerz (1 day only at mattress king!!!! jk),
"you can only profit to the extent the other side is willing to lose"
So your idea of measured moves , since it is a zero sum game, is OK, but also know that you can scew the RR too if you're expecting more than one leg of puking by the other side.
It sounds like you may be doing some of that with your targets,
For instance if you have a smaller Double top pattern part of a larger pattern , then if the first smaller pattern pans out and continues on to start liquidating the folks on the wrong side of the larger pattern then you can stay on the ride longer.
The correct FIbs instead of 200% ,300% that I use for those two are actually 261 and 314, but that is just my own preference.......
Everyone needs to master their craft as an individual , no two traders trade EXACTLY the same. So pick up bits and pieces of the puzzle to create and test your own masterpiece. Just make sure you can spot the sucker at the table, because if you can't, it's you
I'm adding a few tools to the toolbox today. I need to give my analysis and trades more context. To help with this I will be also looking at the overnight range and opening range to help guide my entries and targets.
3/13/2013, trade1:
Short 93.24: target 92.85, stop 93.44
Here is my next setup, short at 92.38. I'm not convinced that we'll make new lows, and I'll be watching for higher lows to form...
Yeah, not happy with this one, off at break even.
Pulling from the high or low of the day is always in play. Beyond that, I look as to what traded previously.
In general, there are two types of series. The first (consider longs for this explanation) will retrace a low to high, forming a higher low. When this hits its target, a higher high is formed. For the next move, the higher low and high are used for the next draw. The second type keeps the same anchor. In the above case the new draw would be from the original low to the new high. A more common form of this is from a swing high to a higher swing high.
Slow day today. I'm sitting in a long at 92.66, looking for 93.11, which is just over the overnight highs.
took 1/2 off at 92.82 in case we don't get through highs.
Rest off at 92.72.
Didn't do much else today. Had a few quick scalps in the afternoon range. That never went anywhere. I was out by the close, so didn't participate in the upside move.
A brief update:
I have decided to prepare for the TST combine. I had been trading an underfunded account, and it affected my trade management and psychology negatively. I will still post post trading day summaries here, along with thoughts and comments about the day.
From now on, until further notice, all trades in this journal are SIM.
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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@kisskais I trade a discretionary system. The essence is decoding price action to identify low risk areas for entry and also identify price targets. I do this via fib retracements as taught by David Halsey. I also use the ACD method taugh by Mark Fisher to give context to the day and manage expectations. I also have picked up bits and pieces from the many great trades here as well.
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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Today was a clear trend up day. As such, my three profitable trades were longs, and my 2 stop outs were shorts. I really need to learn to stop picking tops and bottoms.
Day 3 trades:
Day 3 report:
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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I came into today anticipating a down day. Fortunately I recognized early (Thanks Mark Fisher and @mfbreakout !) that it was not going to be a down day. I had to leave early and stop trading at 10MST. So I couldn't participate in the afternoon. Too bad, it was a great trending afternoon.
Day 4 trades:
Day 4 report:
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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