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Trading CL using a fibonancci approach
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Trading CL using a fibonancci approach

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

Trading CL using a fibonancci approach

Hello all!

I've been lurking here for quite a while, but figured I should get off my rear and start a trade journal. I have improved myself to be a roughly break even trader. I'm hoping journaling my trades can help me continue my development.

Trading plan:

(Modified 3/15/2013)

The core of my trading involves identifying support and resistance using Fibonacci retracements. I use the techniques taught by David Halsey to identify where and how to draw these retracements. In addition, I look at the overnight highs/lows, as well as the opening range to help identify support and resistance, targets, and whether I should be biased long or short.


What do I trade:

Trade CL.

When do I trade:
I only enter new trades during pit hours. Trades can be managed up until the electronic futures close.

Before trading for the day, I review the overnight price action and see if anything has changed from my end of day analysis.

How do I trade:
My trading is discretionary trading.

Depending on what type of entry I am using (fib, double bottom, etc), my stop is either at the measured move failure, or placed where the price action would invalidate my trade. In general, my max stop is 20 ticks. What ever I choose for my stop, once it is identified, my stop cannot move. After a trade is in my favor, I may move my stop in the trades direction if price action supports such stop movement.

My profit target is based both on the measured move, and overall price action. For most trades, I will place a limit order to close at the -61.8% line of the MM I entered on. Exceptions are entries that are right at big level. These will be allowed to run. Or, entries at the overnight or opening range extremes, these will have targets based on local price action.

I look for a minimum target of 30ticks.

Cheers!

Plan your trade, trade your plan.

Last edited by Brewer20; March 15th, 2013 at 12:19 PM.
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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
New York City New York USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Think or Swim, Infinity Futures
Broker/Data: Thinkor Swim for Charts an Infinity Futures for Trading Dom
Favorite Futures: Oil
 
Posts: 51 since Jul 2012
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Please post your charts if posibble with your notations so we can see what you are doing a picture is worth a thousand words.

Great start

Thanks

Hguru

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  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
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End of the day chart

Here is what I'm looking at, we'll see how things look in the morning.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

The daily short shown in the previous post is still in play.

There was a very nice entry at 9:15 EST, however I usually do not get ready to trade to 9:30 EST due to Kid duties.

3/6/2013, Trade 1:
Short off an extension short @ 90.21.
I wanted to wait for a bigger retracement, as this felt like chasing. However, 2nd test was holding, so took entry.

The target for the daily short is 88.59. But I'll be surprised if this entry gets me there.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop moved to 90.27
  • Stop hit
  • Net outcome: 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic1.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 6th, 2013 at 11:10 AM.
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  #6 (permalink)
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Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

Failure of the extension short, sets up a counter trend trade long.

I'm looking for at least around 90.53. That is the next resistance I see. Of course, it could trade back up to the original daily entry level of 90.98. It's also getting close to news.

3/6/2013, Trade 2:
Long @ 90.24.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 90.18
  • Out BE: net 0 ticks

I'm going to watch until after the news comes out.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic2.jpg  
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  #7 (permalink)
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After witnessing a measured move short trade, took the next in the series. Immediate first target hit. Still looking for the 88.59 profit target.

3/6/2013, Trade 3:
Short @ 89.84
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 89.90
  • Out BE, net 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic3.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 6th, 2013 at 11:51 AM.
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  #8 (permalink)
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Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

OK, after getting taken out of the previous trade, I noticed an extension short. Which is, in fact, a better representation of the series of measured moves.

3/6/2013, trade 4:
Back in short at 89.88. Target remains 88.59
  • 1st target hit
  • stop 89.94
  • Ext short hits target, stop to 89.90
  • Stop hit: net +4 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic4.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 6th, 2013 at 12:27 PM.
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  #9 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

3/6/2013, trade 5:
Long at 89.87 for counter trend trade
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 89.81
  • Broke local highs, trail next MM. Stop to 89.84.
  • 1st MM hits target, Stop to 89.86 89.90.
  • In ext longs, stop to 90.04. There is potential resistance the whole way up, will be trailing tight.
  • Out, net +22 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic5.jpg   Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic5b.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 6th, 2013 at 12:45 PM.
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  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received


3/6/2013, trade 6:
Short at 90.01. This is off of the original ext short anchor from the morning.
Better entry would have been 90.10, but I was too slow.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 90.07
  • Out BE, net 0 ticks

In this case the preferred entry I missed would have held. Thus I'm stopped out even with the trade not being invalidated. But rules are rules.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic6.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 6th, 2013 at 04:08 PM.
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