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Trading CL using a fibonancci approach


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Trading CL using a fibonancci approach

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  #1 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Hello all!

I've been lurking here for quite a while, but figured I should get off my rear and start a trade journal. I have improved myself to be a roughly break even trader. I'm hoping journaling my trades can help me continue my development.

Trading plan:

(Modified 3/15/2013)

The core of my trading involves identifying support and resistance using Fibonacci retracements. I use the techniques taught by David Halsey to identify where and how to draw these retracements. In addition, I look at the overnight highs/lows, as well as the opening range to help identify support and resistance, targets, and whether I should be biased long or short.


What do I trade:

Trade CL.

When do I trade:
I only enter new trades during pit hours. Trades can be managed up until the electronic futures close.

Before trading for the day, I review the overnight price action and see if anything has changed from my end of day analysis.

How do I trade:
My trading is discretionary trading.

Depending on what type of entry I am using (fib, double bottom, etc), my stop is either at the measured move failure, or placed where the price action would invalidate my trade. In general, my max stop is 20 ticks. What ever I choose for my stop, once it is identified, my stop cannot move. After a trade is in my favor, I may move my stop in the trades direction if price action supports such stop movement.

My profit target is based both on the measured move, and overall price action. For most trades, I will place a limit order to close at the -61.8% line of the MM I entered on. Exceptions are entries that are right at big level. These will be allowed to run. Or, entries at the overnight or opening range extremes, these will have targets based on local price action.

I look for a minimum target of 30ticks.

Cheers!

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #3 (permalink)
 Hguru 
New York City New York USA
 
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Please post your charts if posibble with your notations so we can see what you are doing a picture is worth a thousand words.

Great start

Thanks

Hguru

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  #4 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Here is what I'm looking at, we'll see how things look in the morning.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #5 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

The daily short shown in the previous post is still in play.

There was a very nice entry at 9:15 EST, however I usually do not get ready to trade to 9:30 EST due to Kid duties.

3/6/2013, Trade 1:
Short off an extension short @ 90.21.
I wanted to wait for a bigger retracement, as this felt like chasing. However, 2nd test was holding, so took entry.

The target for the daily short is 88.59. But I'll be surprised if this entry gets me there.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop moved to 90.27
  • Stop hit
  • Net outcome: 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #6 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Failure of the extension short, sets up a counter trend trade long.

I'm looking for at least around 90.53. That is the next resistance I see. Of course, it could trade back up to the original daily entry level of 90.98. It's also getting close to news.

3/6/2013, Trade 2:
Long @ 90.24.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 90.18
  • Out BE: net 0 ticks

I'm going to watch until after the news comes out.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #7 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

After witnessing a measured move short trade, took the next in the series. Immediate first target hit. Still looking for the 88.59 profit target.

3/6/2013, Trade 3:
Short @ 89.84
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 89.90
  • Out BE, net 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #8 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

OK, after getting taken out of the previous trade, I noticed an extension short. Which is, in fact, a better representation of the series of measured moves.

3/6/2013, trade 4:
Back in short at 89.88. Target remains 88.59
  • 1st target hit
  • stop 89.94
  • Ext short hits target, stop to 89.90
  • Stop hit: net +4 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #9 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

3/6/2013, trade 5:
Long at 89.87 for counter trend trade
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 89.81
  • Broke local highs, trail next MM. Stop to 89.84.
  • 1st MM hits target, Stop to 89.86 89.90.
  • In ext longs, stop to 90.04. There is potential resistance the whole way up, will be trailing tight.
  • Out, net +22 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #10 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received


3/6/2013, trade 6:
Short at 90.01. This is off of the original ext short anchor from the morning.
Better entry would have been 90.10, but I was too slow.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 90.07
  • Out BE, net 0 ticks

In this case the preferred entry I missed would have held. Thus I'm stopped out even with the trade not being invalidated. But rules are rules.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #11 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

So, how do I handle the above situation, getting stopped out, due to missing the optimal entry? If the trade is still valid, I simply re-enter.

3/6/2013, trade 7:
Short @ 90.05. Still inside the same extension short.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 90.11
  • MM short hits target, stop to 90.06. Going to give this market the full HWB short in this range. If we break local lows again, the trail will get tighter.
  • Moving stop to 89.90 89.87.
  • Stop hit, net +23 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

3/6/2013, trade 8:
Long @ 89.99, counter trade. Begin it is nearing the end of the day, this one could run if shorts get squeezed.
  • 1st target hit
  • stop to 89.93
  • stop to 89.96
  • limit order target at 90.92, front run of the daily short level
  • stop to 89.99
  • stop to 90.16, new extension anchor
  • out net +22 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #13 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Tough spot here, the extension short from the morning is still holding, and micro long broke. But the following micro short short didn't hold, and I can make a case the longs are going up in traditional MMs. I'm watching, and likely done for the day. We'll see if we get any clarity here.

[edit]
Turns out longs were still in charge. No worry's, no trade taken either way.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #14 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

March 6th, 2013 summary

Total trades: 8
% BE: 100%*
Total pips: 71

I felt good the whole day. I saw which direction the market was bias towards. Unfortunately, I missed an early trade, which would have been great. But that was out of my control.

I definitely think journaling helped a lot today. It really helped to keep me focused on honest to my rules. Thank Big Mike for the forum!


*this is my most important stat. The premise of this system is to enter the market in areas where a reaction sufficient to hit a first target is likely. If I'm doing my job, this should be >80%. Beyond that, it is in the hands of the market.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #15 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

3/7/2013, trade1:

Long @ 91.16, very quick full stop out.
Net: -26 ticks
Even though we are still in the daily extension short, I read a series of MM longs, and attempted an entry.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

So, it looks like shorts are in play. Next is off of a micro extension short.

3/7/2013, trade2:
Short at 90.96
Got 1st target hit, then stopped out.
Net: 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Micro extensions didn't hold. Re-entered short on a traditional MM short.

3/7/2013, trade3:
Short at 91.00
  • 1st target hit
  • stop to 91.06
  • Out net 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #18 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Tricky market this morning. It looks like they are going to break it out of the daily ext short.
I'm taking things one trade at a time, but remaining nimble.

3/7/2013, trade4:
Long at 91.09
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 91.03
  • Stop to 91.07
  • Stop to 91.10 (8:06 local time)
  • Stop to 91.18 (8:09)
  • Stopped out, net +14ticks

It is looking like the daily ext short is failing, the next resistance I see is at 92.54. However, doesn't mean we go straight there...
Poked a new high by a few ticks, not changing anything yet. If we break with authority, then we will be ext longs.

Update on trade status, the next MM long has traded and bounced. Stop remains at the failure of this long. The second picture shows this and my next resistance level. Third pic shows this resistance on the daily chart.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #19 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

While I'm waiting for this trade to work, I'd like to share a thought:

One of the best things I did for my trading was to focus only on 1 instrument. I used to trade ES, TF, CL, GC, 6E all simultaneously. I thought this was best because it would give me more opportunities for successful trades. However, I could never focus properly on one market. I had many more stop outs, the gains in one market would be offset from losses in another, and it was hard to make any progress. By simply focusing on one market, CL in my case, I can give it my undivided attention.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #20 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

I am still looking long, hindsight is 20-20, and now I see a possible extension long.

3/7/2013, trade5:
Long at 91.22
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 91.16
  • Stopped BE, net 0 ticks

I wasn't patient enough with this entry, and nearly paid for it with a stop out.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #21 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Trying another entry on this extension long. This entry is a bit on the risky side, but I have room to the failure level of the ext long. Target for this trade is 91.97

3/7/2013, trade6:
Long at 91.10
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 91.04
  • Stop to 91.18 (11:35)
  • Stop to 91.22 (11:56)
  • Stop to 91.40 (12:24)
  • Still in this trade, stop to 91.48 (2:08)
  • Out, net +44 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #22 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

March 7th, 2013 summary

Total trades: 6
% BE: 83%
Total pips: +32

I got a little whipsawed today, and was impatient at times. But over all I'm happy with myself for today. I am going to work on improving my trade exits for tomorrow.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #23 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Good morning all.

Looking at CL this morning, I see measured move long that has been tested several times. this leads us up into the next daily short level.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Entering into long trend on an micro ext long. Target is 92.05.


3/8/2013, trade1:
Long at 91.36
  • 1st target hit
  • Out BE, net 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Long off same micro long. Target 92.05

3/8/2013, trade2:
Long at 91.36
  • 1st target hit
  • stop to 91.30
  • Out BE, net 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #26 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

Perhaps 3rd time's a charm. Long off of the same level. This is a better entry, closer to the 50% line, so it has a better chance of holding.

3/8/2013, trade3:
Long at 91.31, target 92.05
  • 1st target hit
  • stop to 91.25
  • stop to 91.27
  • Out, net +3 ticks

I should have closed this trade when we didn't break through 91.64 on the second test.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

3/8/2013, trade4:
Long at 91.34, target 92.05
Full stop, net -24 ticks.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #28 (permalink)
 shopster 
toronto canada
 
Experience: Master
Platform: mt4 , ts, nt , cqg , m4
Trading: spot $, texas grease, jet fuel , quicksilver.
 
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Posts: 70 since Mar 2012

2 session red eye grease trades.......

s

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

After failing to take profit, and then taking a full stop, that is tough to deal with. I'm telling myself to maintain discipline, follow rules, and not look for revenge on the market. I am accountable for my results.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

I see no change, entering long again.

3/8/2013, trade5:
Long at 91.34, target 92.05
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 91.28
  • Out BE, net 0 ticks

I felt myself cheering at the 1st target hit. I need to remain unemotional and objective.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

3/8/2013, trade6:
Short at 91.27, target 91.09
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 91.33
  • Stop to 91.24
  • Out, +9 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

3/8/2013, trade7:
Long at 91.12, target 92.23 (typo on chart, actual entry is 91.12)

Small counter trend trade into next MM short.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 92.09
  • Out, net +3 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #33 (permalink)
 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 91 received

3/8/2013, trade8:

Short 91.23, target 90.99
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 91.29
  • Out BE, 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/8/2013, trade9:
Long 91.27, target 92.05
Full stop, -24ticks.

I should have stuck with my original plan.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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I'm stopping for the day. Too many mental mistakes.

March 8th, 2013 summary

Total trades: 9
% BE: 77%
Total pips: -33

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 shopster 
toronto canada
 
Experience: Master
Platform: mt4 , ts, nt , cqg , m4
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Posts: 70 since Mar 2012

Brewmaster,

you are misreading the session fib moves.

.86 retrace from the dark zone low into the Ny session

Ny session morning hi to Ldn session lo is a .86 retrace as marked.

a double tap pinned out high roll over and puke to the .74 retrace in Ny session as marked.

back up to a .38 retrace of current Ny session range.

back down to take out the Ny session low of the day and to fill " new short pending " orders.

express elevator up for the stop run blow out on all the new breakout low of the day shorts

grease pit friday close will be just off the high of the Ny session as the longs unwind.

pm in your in box.

cheers,

s

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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I've spent some time reflecting on my results for the week. All in all, I'm happy with how I am reading the price action. For the most part, I am correct on the direction the market wants to go.

Two things I am going to change and improve for next week:

1) First, my trade management sucks. The free trade technique sounds good, and does have some emotional benefits, but it has a very poor RR ratio. I analyzed all my trades this week, and I would have been much better with market based first targets, rather than fixed. Even though I would have been stopped out a few more times, this would have substantially improved my profitability.

On all my charts, I have targets denoted by the green -23% line. Price often reaches there, and I was doing nothing, other than trailing my stop. I gave back too much on each trade. I need to take profit at the profit targets my method defines.

2) I need to control my emotions better. I get way to involved with the outcome of any given trade. My judgement gets clouded and I stop objectively observing the market. This will be a continuous improvement process.

I watched futurestrader71 recent webinar and got some good ideas. I'm looking forward toward another good week next week and continuing to improve my trading.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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After this early morning sell off, I am liking the long side on CL.

I am making a change to my trade management. I am no longer using a fixed 12 tick stop and a +6/-6 free trade strategy. I will be using my fib drawings to locate stops. For today, I will be trading all-in all-out, and half size from what I have been. I will be collecting live statistics on this style of trade management.

3/11/2013, trade1:
Long 91.29, target 92.38
  • Initial stop 91.21
  • Entry is now behind the full half way back, moving stop to entry
  • Out, 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
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Looks like continued down side. Per my rules, there are two (well three, but two for now) prices I can short.
The first is is this ext short.

3/11/2013, trade2:
Short 91.00: target 90.87, stop 91.09
Out: -9 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
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The next level is the next HWB short in the series. If this breaks I will be looking long.

3/11/2013, trade3:
Short 91.18: target 90.78, stop 91.29
Out, - 11 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/11/2013, trade4:
Long 91.33: target 91.42, stop 91.25
Target hit: +9 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/11/2013, trade5:
Long 91.37: target 91.50, stop 91.28
Out, -11 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/11/2013, trade6:
Short 91.31: target 90.68, stop 91.41
Out, -10ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/11/2013, trade7:
Long 91.36: target 91.65, stop 91.23
Profit target hit: +29ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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March 11th, 2013 summary:

My biggest success today was keeping my emotions in check and maintaining my cool. I got a bit twisted, but did my best to wait for the next setup. I still need further work in this regard, being more patient.

My day's summary is below. At the end of the day, the net was a minor loss.


Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 COTtrader 
Michigan, Jackson
 
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Good work, Brewer. Don't we know the need for more patience. Ever looking for ways to justify our trade entries we see in retrospect that we could have been a little more patient.

Of course, the same can be said for holding a trade that finally went our way after getting stopped out by 1 tick. On the other hand, the next time we try to "patiently wait" the market punishes us even more.

So, like ya say, "plan your trade and trade your plan" even though that loss could'a been a winner.

Ken "COTtrader"

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 Brewer20 
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COTtrader View Post
Good work, Brewer. Don't we know the need for more patience. Ever looking for ways to justify our trade entries we see in retrospect that we could have been a little more patient.

Of course, the same can be said for holding a trade that finally went our way after getting stopped out by 1 tick. On the other hand, the next time we try to "patiently wait" the market punishes us even more.

So, like ya say, "plan your trade and trade your plan" even though that loss could'a been a winner.

Ken "COTtrader"

Thanks Ken, it is easy to over analyze trades in hindsight. That's a tough one to balance. Should I have moved my stop, or closed the trade prior to target? IMHO, that's a very bad habit to get into, unless you have a set of predefined rules to allow it.
Cheers

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/12/2013, trade1:
Long 93.08: target 93.5, stop 92.90
Stopped out at 93.06. Net: -2 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/12/2013, trade2:
Long 93.23: target 93.55, stop 92.13
Stopped out at 93.24. Net: +1 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/12/2013, trade3:
Long 93.18: target 93.55, stop 92.13
Stopped out at 93.13. Net: -5 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/12/2013, trade4:
Short 93.04: target 92.53, stop 93.19
Closed at 92.86, +18ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
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3/12/2013, trade5:
Long 92.82: target 93.78, stop 92.76
Out at 92.8, -2ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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zr1trader
St. Cloud MN
 
 
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Brewer20 View Post
Hello all!


What do I trade:[/U]
Trade CL using increments of 2 contracts. I enter and exit the market based on price action on the 133 tick chart.

When do I trade:
First, I must understand the larger time frame price action, and how the micro price action relates to this. I enter the market when the micro measured moves align with the larger time frame.

I only enter new trades during pit hours. Trades can be managed up until the electronic futures close.

How do I trade:
My trading is discretionary trading.

My stop is set by the failure level of the fib drawing I entered on. If this is too big, then I wait for a micro to form and use this setup for the stop.

My profit target is set to the profit target for the larger time frame I entered on. If I entered on a daily level, my target is the daily target. If I entered on a 15min level, then it is the 15min target. CL may, and often does run right to these targets.

Once in a trade, my stop trails the series of measured moves as they present themselves. This will look like trailing a series of higher highs or lower lows, but for me is a little more precise.

My plan with this journal is to start each day with an overview of the daily and 15min trend. Then document my trades through out the day. I'm hoping this way I can observe over time what works and what doesn't.

Cheers!


Hi,

Thanks for the journal.

Since you are posting a journal I assume you are looking to spark up some convo about your plan and maybe looking for some help. With that being said I'm curious about your entry, do you use the same conditions or a similar set of patterns each time ? What conditions are you looking for to signal you that there is a good chance there is money up for grabs from the party on the wrong side of the trade?

entry is one piece of the puzzle, I'll ask about other parts of your plan later.


Good trading to you.

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/12/2013, trade6:
Short 92.75: target 92.23, stop 92.81
I'm looking for the -61.8% target of the day's HWB short. Once, 92.49 is reached, I will trail my stop.
Out at 92.61, +14 ticks.

PS. zr1trader, I'll answer your question later on...

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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zr1trader
St. Cloud MN
 
 
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I like Your use of tick charts, as I feel they present certain patterns of price in a "cleaner" manner. using the fib retrace can be a tool for entry, You can also use the fib expansions for your tgt(s),or triggers to trail stop.


You have the right idea of keeping an eye on larger time frames also and not getting lost on looking at only the tick charts. I like to Keep an eye on the highs and lows of the different trading sessions, NY asia, eur. The market likes to go where the most orders are. Otherwise how will the exchange make money if they don't fill the most orders they can? That is usually why the saying , "the market goes where there is the most pain for the most people", because they have to fill all those pending orders (usually stops) in orders to make commission. the big guys need that liquidity from all the suckerz too... to enter/exit . Some things to think about, the repeatable behavior of participants in the marketplace.



Just my 2ticks

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zr1trader
St. Cloud MN
 
 
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Here is an example of using those fib extensions as tgts, I like the 4.23 and 5.76 exits. EOD so Right now I'm looking at the 4.76 exit door. . can tighten up trail too, Another way to skin the cat with fibs

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zr1trader
St. Cloud MN
 
 
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and another one for the road

regards.

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Thanks zr1. Do you scale out at various fib targets?

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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zr1trader
St. Cloud MN
 
 
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Brewer20 View Post
Thanks zr1. Do you scale out at various fib targets?

I'm more of an all in all out guy,If I am going to cut it shorter than expected i'll tighten the trail. Personally, I leave the scaling to the deeper pockets that like to scale for liquidity reasons. I do know others who like scaling out at the fibs. Different strokes for different folks. Your biggest asset is between your ears. Cheers

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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zr1trader View Post
Hi,

Thanks for the journal.

Since you are posting a journal I assume you are looking to spark up some convo about your plan and maybe looking for some help. With that being said I'm curious about your entry, do you use the same conditions or a similar set of patterns each time ? What conditions are you looking for to signal you that there is a good chance there is money up for grabs from the party on the wrong side of the trade?

entry is one piece of the puzzle, I'll ask about other parts of your plan later.


Good trading to you.

Thanks for your comments zr1trader. What I am trying to do is find retracements to buy/sell, and then close the position at a measured extension. Generally, I look at what measured moves have traded in the past, and then look to participate in the next in the series.

I welcome your comments. My trade plan is under construction, if you will.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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zr1trader
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.14 and .86 fibs are a good place to start looking for the blowout liquidation of suckerz (1 day only at mattress king!!!! jk),




"you can only profit to the extent the other side is willing to lose"
So your idea of measured moves , since it is a zero sum game, is OK, but also know that you can scew the RR too if you're expecting more than one leg of puking by the other side.

It sounds like you may be doing some of that with your targets,

For instance if you have a smaller Double top pattern part of a larger pattern , then if the first smaller pattern pans out and continues on to start liquidating the folks on the wrong side of the larger pattern then you can stay on the ride longer.


The correct FIbs instead of 200% ,300% that I use for those two are actually 261 and 314, but that is just my own preference.......

Everyone needs to master their craft as an individual , no two traders trade EXACTLY the same. So pick up bits and pieces of the puzzle to create and test your own masterpiece. Just make sure you can spot the sucker at the table, because if you can't, it's you


cheers

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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I'm adding a few tools to the toolbox today. I need to give my analysis and trades more context. To help with this I will be also looking at the overnight range and opening range to help guide my entries and targets.

3/13/2013, trade1:
Short 93.24: target 92.85, stop 93.44

This is based off the rejection of morning high.

Closed for a gain of +12ticks.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/13/2013, trade2:
Long 93.13: target 93.45, stop 93.04
This is based on half way back for the day.

Stopped out for -9ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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3/13/2013, trade3:
Long 92.88, stop 92.78.
Targets: 93.28, 93.63, and 93.88.

This trade had a confluence of a HWB, European session swing low, and opening range low. (light bulb going off in head)

This was a good setup, and I had 25 ticks of profit. However, I didn't take it. -10 ticks.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Couple of quick trades: two shorts net +29 pips

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Here is my next setup, short at 92.38. I'm not convinced that we'll make new lows, and I'll be watching for higher lows to form...
Yeah, not happy with this one, off at break even.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Another small long into the halfway back short. +19ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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zr1trader
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How are you determining where to put the high and low of your fibs when you "fib out" a leg?

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Last trade of day, short at 92.50. Ended up with +9ticks, just didn't want to break down into the end of the day.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
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zr1trader View Post
How are you determining where to put the high and low of your fibs when you "fib out" a leg?

Pulling from the high or low of the day is always in play. Beyond that, I look as to what traded previously.

In general, there are two types of series. The first (consider longs for this explanation) will retrace a low to high, forming a higher low. When this hits its target, a higher high is formed. For the next move, the higher low and high are used for the next draw. The second type keeps the same anchor. In the above case the new draw would be from the original low to the new high. A more common form of this is from a swing high to a higher swing high.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
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3/14/2013, trade1:
Long 92.58, stop 92.43, target 92.79
Out at target of 92.79
+ 21ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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zr1trader
St. Cloud MN
 
 
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That DB this morn on 5 min had a nice .50% retrace too and if you look farther to the left, it sits on the .14.


It filled the pending orders of suckers first though on that second leg of DB before it took off

Good trading to you

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 Brewer20 
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zr1trader View Post
That DB this morn on 5 min had a nice .50% retrace too and if you look farther to the left, it sits on the .14.


It filled the pending orders of suckers first though on that second leg of DB before it took off

Good trading to you

Yep, that was a nice entry right at the pit open.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Slow day today. I'm sitting in a long at 92.66, looking for 93.11, which is just over the overnight highs.
took 1/2 off at 92.82 in case we don't get through highs.
Rest off at 92.72.

Avg gain: +11ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Didn't do much else today. Had a few quick scalps in the afternoon range. That never went anywhere. I was out by the close, so didn't participate in the upside move.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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A brief update:
I have decided to prepare for the TST combine. I had been trading an underfunded account, and it affected my trade management and psychology negatively. I will still post post trading day summaries here, along with thoughts and comments about the day.

From now on, until further notice, all trades in this journal are SIM.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 shopster 
toronto canada
 
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zr1trader View Post
Here is an example of using those fib extensions as tgts, I like the 4.23 and 5.76 exits. EOD so Right now I'm looking at the 4.76 exit door. . can tighten up trail too, Another way to skin the cat with fibs





nice targets.
exit door...........

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Today I begin a 10-day $150k TST combine. I have tried several in the past and failed. I will be journaling my progress through this combine.

Day 1 trades:


Day 1 trade report:

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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kisskais
San Francisco
 
 
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Hi Brewer, I like the day 1 report, what system are you using?THX


Brewer20 View Post
Today I begin a 10-day $150k TST combine. I have tried several in the past and failed. I will be journaling my progress through this combine.

Day 1 trades:


Day 1 trade report:


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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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kisskais View Post
Hi Brewer, I like the day 1 report, what system are you using?THX

@kisskais I trade a discretionary system. The essence is decoding price action to identify low risk areas for entry and also identify price targets. I do this via fib retracements as taught by David Halsey. I also use the ACD method taugh by Mark Fisher to give context to the day and manage expectations. I also have picked up bits and pieces from the many great trades here as well.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Today was a wild one! I made some great trades, but got caught off guard by the mid-day rumors. Happy to end with a nice gain.

Day 2 trades:


Day 2 report:

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Today was a clear trend up day. As such, my three profitable trades were longs, and my 2 stop outs were shorts. I really need to learn to stop picking tops and bottoms.

Day 3 trades:


Day 3 report:

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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I came into today anticipating a down day. Fortunately I recognized early (Thanks Mark Fisher and @mfbreakout !) that it was not going to be a down day. I had to leave early and stop trading at 10MST. So I couldn't participate in the afternoon. Too bad, it was a great trending afternoon.

Day 4 trades:


Day 4 report:

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 greg9 
SLC, UT
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Thanks for your trading journal. I'm also a trader using DH's method.

Question for you, DH really doesn't like trading his method on CL, is there a reason you like using CL with his method?

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 Brewer20 
Denver, CO
 
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Hit the daily loss limit today. Lack of discipline and poor trading of a range bound market.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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 RickD 
Los Angeles, CA
 
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Great thread. Was wondering if anyone reading this found this to be good enough to incorporate into their trading plan? thanks.

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