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Trading CL using a fibonancci approach
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Trading CL using a fibonancci approach

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

So, how do I handle the above situation, getting stopped out, due to missing the optimal entry? If the trade is still valid, I simply re-enter.

3/6/2013, trade 7:
Short @ 90.05. Still inside the same extension short.
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 90.11
  • MM short hits target, stop to 90.06. Going to give this market the full HWB short in this range. If we break local lows again, the trail will get tighter.
  • Moving stop to 89.90 89.87.
  • Stop hit, net +23 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic7.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 6th, 2013 at 02:55 PM.
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  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

3/6/2013, trade 8:
Long @ 89.99, counter trade. Begin it is nearing the end of the day, this one could run if shorts get squeezed.
  • 1st target hit
  • stop to 89.93
  • stop to 89.96
  • limit order target at 90.92, front run of the daily short level
  • stop to 89.99
  • stop to 90.16, new extension anchor
  • out net +22 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic8.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 6th, 2013 at 03:19 PM.
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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received


Tough spot here, the extension short from the morning is still holding, and micro long broke. But the following micro short short didn't hold, and I can make a case the longs are going up in traditional MMs. I'm watching, and likely done for the day. We'll see if we get any clarity here.

[edit]
Turns out longs were still in charge. No worry's, no trade taken either way.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.

Last edited by Brewer20; March 6th, 2013 at 03:30 PM.
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  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

March 6th, 2013 summary

Total trades: 8
% BE: 100%*
Total pips: 71

I felt good the whole day. I saw which direction the market was bias towards. Unfortunately, I missed an early trade, which would have been great. But that was out of my control.

I definitely think journaling helped a lot today. It really helped to keep me focused on honest to my rules. Thank Big Mike for the forum!


*this is my most important stat. The premise of this system is to enter the market in areas where a reaction sufficient to hit a first target is likely. If I'm doing my job, this should be >80%. Beyond that, it is in the hands of the market.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

3/7/2013, trade1:

Long @ 91.16, very quick full stop out.
Net: -26 ticks
Even though we are still in the daily extension short, I read a series of MM longs, and attempted an entry.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic1.jpg  
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  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

So, it looks like shorts are in play. Next is off of a micro extension short.

3/7/2013, trade2:
Short at 90.96
Got 1st target hit, then stopped out.
Net: 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic2.jpg  
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  #17 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

Micro extensions didn't hold. Re-entered short on a traditional MM short.

3/7/2013, trade3:
Short at 91.00
  • 1st target hit
  • stop to 91.06
  • Out net 0 ticks

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic3.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 7th, 2013 at 06:38 PM.
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  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

Tricky market this morning. It looks like they are going to break it out of the daily ext short.
I'm taking things one trade at a time, but remaining nimble.

3/7/2013, trade4:
Long at 91.09
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 91.03
  • Stop to 91.07
  • Stop to 91.10 (8:06 local time)
  • Stop to 91.18 (8:09)
  • Stopped out, net +14ticks

It is looking like the daily ext short is failing, the next resistance I see is at 92.54. However, doesn't mean we go straight there...
Poked a new high by a few ticks, not changing anything yet. If we break with authority, then we will be ext longs.

Update on trade status, the next MM long has traded and bounced. Stop remains at the failure of this long. The second picture shows this and my next resistance level. Third pic shows this resistance on the daily chart.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic4.jpg   Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic4a.jpg   Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic4b.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 7th, 2013 at 12:46 PM.
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  #19 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received

While I'm waiting for this trade to work, I'd like to share a thought:

One of the best things I did for my trading was to focus only on 1 instrument. I used to trade ES, TF, CL, GC, 6E all simultaneously. I thought this was best because it would give me more opportunities for successful trades. However, I could never focus properly on one market. I had many more stop outs, the gains in one market would be offset from losses in another, and it was hard to make any progress. By simply focusing on one market, CL in my case, I can give it my undivided attention.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 71 given, 87 received


I am still looking long, hindsight is 20-20, and now I see a possible extension long.

3/7/2013, trade5:
Long at 91.22
  • 1st target hit
  • Stop to 91.16
  • Stopped BE, net 0 ticks

I wasn't patient enough with this entry, and nearly paid for it with a stop out.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading CL using a fibonancci approach-pic5.jpg  

Last edited by Brewer20; March 7th, 2013 at 01:58 PM.
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