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Watch me fly like an eagle or drop like a t..rd
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Watch me fly like an eagle or drop like a t..rd

  #51 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Today was a very quiet day and it gave just one opportunity and I capitalazed on it well, managed to scale in by the rules. Closed out early but it happened to be almost top so no worries. Alternative close methods would get pretty much the same result.

I tried two times and got out at break even, third time it worked. But it was a quiet day. Other day it can go 50 or 100 ticks.

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  #52 (permalink)
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  #53 (permalink)
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Just took a trade on 6E off the method I was practicing on FX earlier, works awesome on euro and cable. Works just as well on futures too. Targeted 40 ticks risking 13 in this case, settled for 10 ticks profit due to the nearing of US open and another possible manipulation. The signal (stop run) happened late in the London session.

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  #54 (permalink)
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Today was an exceptional day on many markets. I did few attempts to trade gold, got a break even, and one trade closed at +12 ticks and rightly so. I did have another short trade right before the bottom fell out of gold but I got stopped at break even because there wasn't a strong direction after the pit open. Sure it did move 400 ticks after stopping me out. Another attempt well after the move, stopped out at be but slipped to -1 tick. I could not trade during the Big Fall because volatility was such trading with 10 ticks stop loss I use would get a stop out, price was jumping up and down in a region of 20-30 ticks with little or none limit orders in the market. I believe I witnessed a Flash Crash of Gold. I tried later a trade in Crude but it reversed on a dime and stopped me out for -15 ticks, but I traded with 1 contract only. So I am up on the day around 500 which is not bad at all during the day when many live traders probably got murdered.

This is the end of my 10 days practice with TST CTS T4. I will make a final decision over the weekend whether to do a Combine next week or use another simulator for some time more. I am confident I can make at least to rollover and have statistics in line if I stick to Gold and trade strictly by the rules I have. However I want to practice on Crude as well so I will see if I can use a free Multicharts demo I got from Zenfire or a free version of Multicharts.net 8.5, but need to find a data feed for it. I can get my futures account funded again and get a proper free demo again of course as well. I got used to CTS T4 though and really like its Tape (market history) in a filtered way it give a clue on the sentiment. So I need to think how to pull it off.

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  #55 (permalink)
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My final report.

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Metrics look good, I did have few very lengthy losers but all were not system trades, first ones from testing out the platform, last huge ones from my last screw up, which I wouldn't go either live or combine. I have 600 a day average net P/L, I need 800 to pass but given first days on testing the platform and not trading this system, I believe I could up it up without a problem given that I would trade at least 12 more days (since I only traded 8 with gold out of total 10 I had with this trial) and get close to pass. Looks like I managed risk generally good on Gold (not so good on crude but I am not ready to do any combine trading with crude yet, lots of work to get a system adapted to crude and maybe gas first), so I feel relatively confident I can take up 150k Combine and manage at least to a refund. I did 10 days in two weeks, so taking a 20 day Combine I can expect to finish in 4 weeks but still have a nice cushion of extra days to use if I need to pass on some trading days due to other commitments or unfriendly markets, or simply to try to pass it with extra days over the minimum required, if it seems feasible instead of refunding it.

I will take 150k 20 days standard parameters combine as I believe I can stay within all three metrics, or in worst case with 2 of them. I will open a new journal for the Combine strictly in the public journal section.

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  #56 (permalink)
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Apparently my trial is still active today so here I am ending it on a positive note. Apparently Apocalipse Now in Gold continues with 1000 ticks down, making Friday look like a sandbox to play. Pre-market trading is wild, spread is jumping from 3 to 10 ticks at a time and price discovery hardly working. I managed few trades but when volatility increased went from default 5 cars to just 2 cars with stop loss of 20 ticks instead of 10. Managed to make 2500 usd in a couple of easy trades (if I just let it run would be around 15 grand but I am not used to volatility like that, nobody is).

I am not sure if I will trade more today again, my point is proven and I feel I can do a Combine with this method. It has nothing to do with Gold per se, any market that moves can be traded this way, I have 4 in my crosshair: Gold, Crude, NatGas and Copper. Right now Gold looks the best but beware very thin market and therefore bad price discovery..

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I will post my last TST report after the market close today, I expect to have average now above 800.

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  #57 (permalink)
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Trade Ideas

Since my Combine is over and all information related to LP and JT should I get there will be published in the same thread for easy of find, I am coming back to my original thread to post any other ideas, materials, or topics.

Here is what I have my eye on now.

CFTC: Sharp increase in bets against the euro and Australian dollar | ForexLive


Quoting 
CFTC: Sharp increase in bets against the euro and Australian dollar
May 25th, 2013 16:10:35 GMT by Adam Button | 9 Comments
Futures market speculative positioning data from the CFTC as of the close on Tuesday:

EUR net short 80K vs short 46K prior
JPY net short 95Kvs short 88K prior
GBP net short 77K vs short 65K prior
AUD net short 32K vs short 13K prior
CAD net short 34K vs short 44K prior
NZD net long 18K vs long 23K prior
CHF net short 19K vs short 15K prior
Dollar Index net long 46K vs 35K prior
The weekly Commitments of Traders data showed a jump in euro shorts. The new positions were established after May 14 almost any position established since then is underwater which makes me believe there is a real chance of a short squeeze above 1.30.
What has been more remarkable is the swing in Australian dollar positions over the past two months. AUD longs were over 80K and now the market is holding a massive short. The articles earlier today show how quickly and aggressively everyone has swung against the Aussie dollar. I can’t remember the last time sentiment on a currency changed so dramatically.

When everybody and their dog get on the bandwagon, expect it change its course.

I would only consider these possibilities:

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These two are EURUSD and AUDUSD forex pairs. But it's almost exactly the same situation on Futures, use symbols 6E and 6A. Picture is the same, just few ticks difference in level location due to futures backwardation.

A lot of stops must be built up in their areas. It should provide for a really nice quick low risk trade, possibly extending into a long swing if momentum keeps on.

Two options to trade them as per order flow concept: either short right before or on the level or long on a break of it few ticks past the level. Very nice precise levels, with lotsa stops placed after.

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  #58 (permalink)
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Gold zones for this week to watch

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  #59 (permalink)
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And here is the trade according to the levels provided above!


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  #60 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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xelaar View Post
And here is the trade according to the levels provided above!


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