Giving it more thought, I will also start again trading 6E only during the London session (since I have got some time next week), purely as per Bob Volman: 70 ticks chart, 21EMA, 10TP fix, 5-10SL.
Just want to have something more to compare my results on CL with. My mistake with 6E was I think mainly trying to get more ticks, not being satisfied with just 10, and this is the problem, sometimes fiber moves a lot, last week certainly, but usually for last year it's not moving much, but 10 ticks should be attainable. On the other hand stops can be much smaller than for CL. My main focus will be to trade tiny patterns formed after a momentum move, and I will skip any blocks larger than 4-5 ticks, any signal bars larger that that, any double dojis larger that that. Ideally I want to see 5-6 ticks stop max and 10 ticks target. Then even 45% passable for Combine will be making good profit.
Hey there. Just wanted to tell why I am changing to 15SL 30TP 15 TS on Crude. I want to model different scenarios, and having 15 ticks stop as the largest I want to use and 30 ticks profit as the largest I want to use on Crude allows me to model in spreadsheets scenarios with smaller SL and TP, prominently 10 ticks SL and 10, 20 ticks TP I used earlier. Having MAE and MFE now recorded allows me this, also I will just trade 1 contract without any regards to stop out limits, just to gather more data, I can model stop outs for different Combine sets in my spreadsheets. The main purpose for this exercise is to find a suitable trade and risk management strategy for Combine and do to that as best as I can I need as much stats as I can handle. Then I can model scenarios for all types of Combine and use different risk management strategies (like reducing risk when in draw down by reducing contract size, increasing risk as cushion built up, etc).
At the same I get more and more enamored with Al Brooks methods of trading, it just seems so natural to me, it's just I am somehow not very comfortable with ES and also I don't want to spend so much time doing time-consuming trading in parallel to my main task - CL, I plan to start getting in tune with it slowly on 15 minutes and/or hourly charts on Forex, fiber and cable, it seems to be the great method to trade on Forex.
Spent a day today getting accustomed to the new charts and trade management. Although I had a profit on Crude I would journal it as trades were not systemic and rather try outs. Also 6e ate me alive, I need to think if I want to trade with such intensity. It certainly hurt my CL trading today. So I will probably postpone it for later and insted will look at slower 6e and 6b charts with AL Brooks method.
I have also found out that my new trade parameters such as 30 ticks target isnt well suited for 250 ticks chart. I had target hit today but market was unusually strong and could not repeat that feat again even though my second trade few ticks shy of 30.
I was using 10 and 20 with 100 ticks and it was better suited. I will stick with parameters though but will use 400 ticks instead. We will see how it works.
I would be careful with this. While you have a given MAE and MFE for each trade, you don't know the exact path price took to get there. I think your analysis would be valid if you didn't not consider tighter stops as a variable. In this case, you would would be assured of hitting a lower profit target before hitting the original stop.
However, if you model a lower stop, I don't think you will have the necessary data, with just MAE and MFE, to determine if this stop gets hit before the profit target
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
The following user says Thank You to Brewer20 for this post:
Thats correct! Thanks. My intention was to assume a loser if MAE is 10 or more in this case. But as I am drifting to slower charts that might be not a big issue in itself since 10 ticks stop would not be enough to protect the trade before it logically invalidated.
Thanks again for reading it! Its a first comment not less
Two days in a row of screw ups! Now I have a choice - admit I did stupid things (I called them "experimenting" to save face) and start over again or continue where I left. I will continue, as the point is gathering statistics before anything else.
I managed to waste a day today and yesterday playing with chart resolution between different tick settings, seconds,minutes and contracts. Something was wrong and thanks to a merciful soul I finally realized I was still trading April contract on Crude while people moved to May, no wonder I started to get 3-4 times less ticks and contracts!!!
I started today early, had success only to screw up again later in the day while keep changing stuff.
Now I have decided to continue with settings I posted earlier, 15 ticks stop and 30 ticks target but without automatic trail stop, I will choose trailing points myself, after all it's not an automatic process, and will only use break even at +15, and I leave an option to adjust take profit between 10 and 30 ticks depending on probability and space in front available.
I will be using 250 ticks chart, as after I have changed the contracts 100 became and pure madness and some setups still required minimum 15 ticks stop (which agrees with 15-20 ticks rotations on Crude) but generated far too many setups with many of them having not much possible target space.
Anyhow, this is how I will continue. I plan to end this excersize and once April starts will buy my membership at TST and will trade their Sim and Combine. I hope it will stimulate me to play by the rules and stop playing with setups and settings. I started off on Sim well but I feel I got the Sim fever now, stopping to take results as if they were real and instead fire the bullet without due care...
Here is my shot from today. I will be using just one chart, with 250 ticks, last few days we had a lot of volatility and activity so it remains to be seen how much bars we will see during a normal session, but I think I can stick with 250, being a good mid-ground between scalping and intra-day trading.
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Only piece of advice I can offer is do not, ever, change anything during your active trading session (done it many times before in the past - never turned out well). Make changes after the day is done, if needed, and/or make the changes and simply watch.
Keep at it!
The following user says Thank You to Maelstrom for this post:
Okay. You gonna laugh now. I have more changes to come. Yesterday was a Fed day so not a good day to trade live or against the metrics. So I kept practicing, and studying, learning, thinking, analyzing past charts.
Here is good part and bad part. There is a fight in my mind between two sides of my personality: a desire to get a quick fix and be done, and a desire to mastermind a trade like a good business and see it growing.
Let's start with a first one. I am an impulsive person, but I don't live day by day, I love trill and excitement, race road bikes (200hp) as my main hobby and sometimes sail nasty weather as another. I started trading live in Forex as market started to collapse again on first Greek drama act but trully put my nest egg on the table after discovering news trading. I practiced, tested, developed technical tools that gave me advantage, and traded heavy (at least for me, throwing up to 20-30 times leveraged capital in one trade), and made good money. I got addicted to this quick fix and trill, seeing trade bringing you money in 10-60 seconds and be done for the day and sometimes for the week. And after seeing it making money 5 times out of ten, 4 times small gain or loss around break even, and maybe 1 loss, it was very hard to convince myself trading techinical charts can be better. But good things come and go. Trading this way became tough and returns diminished, so I started to get back to technical trading again. Spent a year trying to master short term trading on Forex (mostly Fiber euro/usd), but always got too much issues with it, because of execution, lack of volume data and 5-digit pricing system (where you have price moving in 10th of tick or pip how it is called in fx). Then I decided to venture into Futures. I traded Futures briefly few years ago, but it was FX futures and was related to event trading. This is how I ended up here and a story of my quick fix. So for me trading this way, short term with momentum is natural, responds to my character and lines up with good experience.
Another side is a carefully planning, safety-inclined character. I have long-term investments, planned to protect me when hell break loose (I have little doubt it will happen within my investment horizon), I do things that will only give me gratification in future, and I like to plan my next steps on different levels. So naturally I aspire longer term trading as well and spend time constantly looking at daily and weekly charts, getting prepared to start slowly working my way there as well.
The most trouble to me brings mid-term horizon. Intra-day trading that doesn't get resolved fast enough to start and finish it sitting in front of PC before taking a coffee break, but doesn't leave me with an option to leave the trade to itself and go jogging or bicycling for few hours. It tempts me to interfere and usually I want it to get resolved ASAP so I screw up good trades.
I started my second coming to futures with an idea I can get my thesis in trading really fast get executed much better in Futures (and this is totally true), but somehow started to read all that wonderful posts, watch webinars,e tc that contain really great information, but it distracted me from my original ideas.
So here it comes. I have decided to go back to beginning and resume my testing in Fiber (euro), but on the premise that was originally valid - small gain high probability trades. Fiber doesn't move much now on normal days, but it has realitively frequent rotations of 10-20 ticks and one can profit well from it. Another big hurdle is that I live in Europe on GMT+1 time and for me trading American products during pit hours means spending time from 3 PM to 7 PM in front of PC trying to start afresh and concentrate. Even leaving social aspect behind (I am not very social person as I find most common folks too dumb to have any sort of conversation with them, as they only want to talk about food and local crimes) I started to feel the toll of exhaustion on me, since I already had a full day of work or study and then I need to start over again in the afternoon. So trading heavy in afternoon spells trouble to me. In this sense I will look to continue with Crude, but I will go down on chart speed again, and will look into 400-800 ticks charts with an idea in mind to take maximum 3 trades a day there. No re-entry on bad trade, large trade separation (30-60 minutes). Stop loss 15-20 ticks. We shall see how it works.
On the fiber madness, I plan to trade it in my morning and my setup is the following:
1. I wait for the directional move
2. I wait for a small consolidation up to 3-5 ticks wide with well defined borders
3. I look at the DOM and Volume ratio indi to confirm the directional bias on volume
4. I take the trade once it breaks out, either with stop order if I am very confident or with limit once price breaks out and don't retreat right away, so I take the first pull back
5. Max stop is 5 ticks and I look to protect the trade immediately as it moves in my favor usually when 3-4 ticks in profit
6. My target is 5 ticks but I contemplate a setup when second target is 10 ticks, the hit rate is high enough.
7. If I see momentum dying I will move either stop or limit (depending if trade is above or under water) to my entry to catch a break even.
I traded this way yesterday and today, taking only the best trades and getting at least half of trades at break even being very protective, but results look very good so far.
I have decided to venture more in this direction and will study more order flow, dom scalping, as it seems to be in the same cathegory as my method and reflects my view of trading well. I love to be done fast and out.
And it seems that Hoag is trading similarly at least as per his webinars about new pit, and Combine program is certainly favors this type of trading.
Trading single contract I brought in 250 usd yesterday (200 net) no losers, with 67.5 dollars per trade risk limits installed by Combine seem very reasonable and target very achievable.
So let's the game begin!
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