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Watch me fly like an eagle or drop like a t..rd
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Watch me fly like an eagle or drop like a t..rd

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

I had some good trading yesterday on CL, looks like these rules are far more effective on crude than on Euro, I assume Bob Volman wrote his book in 2010-2011 when Euro had its historic high volatility printing 180 pips daily but these days long gone. I had some good results back then on my own methods in forex with euro too, also automated mean reversal systems used to make a total killing in the markets. Since spring 2012 no more, markets turned on their head. I can see euro mostly ranging and doing nothing and then explode on some tape bomb or news but quickly settling into the range again, very frustrating if you try to piggy-back on the move. So no more scalping euro for me.

I still trade Fiber and Cable on forex, but only on bank trading manipulations and stop runs based on intra-week cycles, but it's hardly a scalping and unlikely can fly for Combine despite excellent risk reward and trade duration, since I might have only 1-2 trades per week and Combine expects active trading.

So I focus now mostly on Crude also because I love it's trading session: it's sleeps till 9 AM NY and goes to sleep after 1 PM or so NY, so just 4 hours of packed action, I like this, unlike currency that has all the action spread over 3 trading sessions. I can sit 4 hours in front of monitors no problems, but I am tired of sitting 14 hours straight I used to for covering both London and NY sessions.

I am also trialing ES and YM, but with different methods since they have very different trading behavior. But I need to get used to it much more. So it's likely I will be studying indices for few more weeks and start my attempt solely with Crude.

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  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

Interesting about Emini SP from Joe Ross

Joe Ross' Chart Scan

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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received


Hooray!

I have started my standardized simulation all over again. I have spent a week testing and trialing certain things and
this is what I have came up with:
1. I will only trade Crude Oil
2. I will only used 100 ticks chart for entry and management, and 800 ticks chart for channels, direction, support and resistance
3. I will not use any MAs at all, they seem to be just a wishful thinking, instead I will select trades from the channels or range borders on 800 tick chart and use 2,-2 standard deviation bollinger bands on 100 ticks chart to select entry areas and possible obstacles for further moving/targeting, as well as VWAP for selecting a trend/direction
4. I will use Floor Trader Pivots to anticipate areas of support and resistance for the day
5. I use 10 ticks stop with possible tightening when setup allows and possible risk decreasing as trade moves in profit, but not aggressive, allowing a space for rotations
6. I will trial 3 contract entry with 3 targets: 10, 20 and 30 ticks. It will allow me to gather statistics on possible best scenario. I will not use automated break-even, instead I will use latest high or low to trail stops but no closer than 10 ticks to the price, unless very close to a final target and price stall.
7. I plan to trade 3-5 trades a day, having a larger target will prevent me from taking trades with a small target room
8. I will take at least 15 minutes pause between trades on different setups
9. I will allow only 1 re-enter possibility for the setup still valid but stopped out from premature entry
10. I will plan to stay withing 1000 usd daily loss limit and target 1000 usd daily max profit, to possibly stay in ranges of Combine 50k, I will start trading single contract after two losses a day for the rest of the day

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  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

Here is my trades from yesterday
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Overall picture
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Trade 1 and 2
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Trade 3
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Overall a good day.

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  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

12th March 2013

Today I had a short day. Spend the opening at the tax advisor's, so came in trading later one, missing the move down. I took just two trades, still there is plenty of time, but I will cut it short today, and get some rest and go to gym, just not is the best of mood.

Here is a channel/direction analysis for today:
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I took two trades.
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One is continuation with the trend, after a range breakout of small block but we were on the top bollinger so I did not want to risk it on possible stop run down and wanted to take it on a continuation. However a pivot was nearby, I hoped for momentum to be healthy enough to break through, it spiked through but stalled, I trailed remaining two contracts close after first one closed on limit take profit, getting them stopped for 4 ticks each. Then I reversed convinced that the pivot will hold for a while. Easily managed to profit target 1, but then price sit on the lower range border and bollinger, I trailed remaining two contracts to be stopped out for 3 ticks profit each. Eventually it moved down, but it was likely to retest (and possibly break) the pivot so I would do the same trade management again and again.
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Not much ticks won, but with no loss a good day in profits.


Last edited by xelaar; March 12th, 2013 at 01:50 PM.
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  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

13th March 2013

Tough day today. Today I have chosen to trial Vance's strategy pre-market, it does work well but I will stick with my own for at least 10 trading days until I re-evaluate but I prefer to trial it longer.

Lots of chop today, small range, and I totally forgotten about the reserve news. All the mess ensues.
Daily stats first:
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Overall market picture:
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My messy trades:
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My main mistake was disregarding checking for the news (still not used to trading oil and forget about the reserve release) and trading inside the chop. Next time I will fade the borders (what I did later with more success) and wait for a better move. After I took two losses on 3 contract positions, I reverted to 1 contract trades with flexible target (1:1 or better). After three wins I went back to trading 3 contracts, but chosen to close out at +10 ticks remaining two contracts after the stall and relatively nearby pivot and lower support.

Still no matter what in profit, albeit just 85 bucks after commissions. The other stats are still passable for Combine, but it's very early still.


Last edited by xelaar; March 13th, 2013 at 01:33 PM.
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  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

It's three days into 10 day venture, I need to book profit of 3500 usd to pass, so an average should be 350 usd a day. However, I don't expect being able to post all winning days, so I need to allow for at least 3 losing days along the way with average loss 500. So I need to boost 5000 in 7 trading days, or 720 usd per winning day. So far I am lacking in this department, but it's so hard to tell. I've got 20 trading days to chose my 10 actual trading days from, or 3 weeks, so I can pass on some days and I need to trade less. So far I am 30% of days spent in, and around 30% of profits required booked. However, I still can use more days if needed and I believe I will need them. However, the methodology and risk management seems to be suitable for the metrics so I have good chances.

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  #18 (permalink)
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prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

14th March 2013

A bad day today. CL had historically low volatility and it shows. Started off bad with two losers on 3-contract trades, then switched on to 1 contracts. Made back half of the losses but still a losing day.

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Analyzing results it appears that starting off with 3 contract trades is not so good idea, so for the rest of the exercise I will be starting with 1 contract and after I build up 200 usd profit or more I will up the contracts.

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  #19 (permalink)
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prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

15th March 2013

Another tough day. I tried again several different tactics in pre-market and it apparently affected my thinking during my normal trading sessions, starting 9 AM EST.

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I made following mistakes:
1. Entered setups with too wild gyrations in the consolidation that costed me stop out several times including increasingly large stop outs (up to 14 ticks) I used to be able to put a stop under latest high or low
2. Did trades with too little time in between them

However I did few things well, including:
1. I started with 1 contract and therefore my draw down wasn't severe however I was unable to build up a cushion to start using 3 contracts, so I stayed with just one.
2.I added on 1 more contract one time when the setup pulled back apparently and closed out at BE on the first entry, booking 7 ticks on the second
3. I switched to 250 ticks that allowed me to trade less and don't get killed in the chop like yesterday

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All in all I made a handful of ticks that just paid my commissions exactly and I ended up with a hole from a bun as daily net. Could be much worse.

It's been very tough two days for me, and possibly my trading attempt won't be able to reach the target but still there is a hope as I am still within other Combine requirements.

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I know I should not be changing my setup during the run (BigMike has a great point in their signature), but honestly 100 ticks was too messy today and I expect 250 to be better even during more energized days with better volume and participation.

Have a great weekend!

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  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received


I am doing some market review for the past month now using 250 tick charts and support resistance areas. I will do more so tomorrow and plan to trade following week with more strict trade management and little bit different approach to positioning:
1. I will start with 1 contract and build up to 3 once I have two winning trades
2. I will look only for trades near the support or resistance zone and won't be taking trades in the middle of current active range
3. I will use more basic trade management with one target and trailing stop for all contacts in order to have it more automatic, I will even leave PC alone as soon as trade is opened, i.e. fire and forget. The trades I save manually are usually less damaging than lost profits on preliminary closed trades.
4. I will use a base position of 2 contracts instead of 3, thus giving me an option to use 15 ticks stop loss instead of doing 3 contracts with 10 ticks. My current stop is just not consistent with CL volatility, using high or low of last swing or signal bar is a weak target, it gets run far too often, so my stop will be fixed 15 ticks
5. My trade management strategy is: SL15, TP30, TS15.

I should be able to compare next week's results to this week results and see what works better for real.

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