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Welcome to futures.io (formerly BMT), firstly, you've found a good trading community.
Yes, 20 trades are a lot of trades, even for me. My average is closer to 5.
Right now I'm doing a combination of scalping and holding a position trade.
I have no daily target. I don't believe in it, but if someone were to convince me based on facts that I should have one, I would. Does a casino (which has an edge, like me) ever close its doors? I want to take as many opportunities of my edge that present themselves for the taking.
That makes a lot of sense, and it also makes sense not to observe some arbitrary limit when things are going well. But the casino analogy can be misleading, because you aren't a casino, and your trades don't have an edge in the same way that a casino's roulette wheel has an edge. And the casino's roulette wheel doesn't suffer from fatigue, or emotional responses, or sugar imbalances, etc etc.
I watched the markets too long today, and ended up succumbing to fatigue, frustration and other emotional ills by taking two incredibly poor trades, both of which took full stops.
Great posts you've been making about this process. I share a lot of those struggles with wanting it to be exciting, losing interest as soon as I've understood how to do something, etc. - to say nothing of the expectation of being right.
I started my new 20-trade exercise today. I did a lot of thinking and journaling last night. Most of the trouble I had in the first exercise was from trying to mechanize my subjective way of trading, and the frustrations that stemmed from that. I decided to take a slightly more objective approach for this next sample size. (I can assure you this decision was only made to maximize my focus on my mindset, as opposed to focusing on "Is THIS a signal?").
If this method is still too subjective and still causing problems, next exercise I will literally trade some dumb MA-crossover system or something that is 100% black and white. I'm calling it right now, I know without a doubt that I could follow a system like that with no regard for profitability and no 2nd guessing anything; because I wouldn't care. I know the method probably doesn't have an edge, and its not something I've created... something I'm proud to trade.
Anyways, we'll see if we need to even go there after this exercise #2.
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So, today I took 4 trades. I had zero problems managing trades for stop losses, nor problems taking profits. I also had zero problems knowing where my setups/edges were.
From the trade analyzer here, you can see that I'm trading on a lower timeframe than before (tiny hold times), and risk management is TIGHT (tiny MAE's allowed). I'm scalping to say the least.
I had no emotions while I was in trades. I really didn't care if they worked out, and I took what the market offered.
The problem I did have?
Made 5 mistakes today. All 5 mistakes were NOT taking valid entry signals due to fear. What is the fear? I think it's a fear of being wrong. This fear shows up more so with me when I am up for the session because I don't want to give back profits or mess up a nearly flawless session. 4 of the 5 skipped setups were winners.
This is a belief system that I currently have, and it's in conflict with the belief that I am working to replace it with. That new belief I am working on is a belief in uncertainty on the micro level (individual outcomes) and a certainty at the macro level (longer term edge over proper sample size). I am putting a lot of effort into fixing this.
If I truly believe in an uncertain outcome of each edge/setup, and I expect that virtually anything can happen... (Otherwise, the moment I "know" what will happen, my brain subconsciously starts filtering out information!)... if I truly believe in the uncertainty... there WILL BE NO CONFLICT in jumping the gun on an edge before it's even there, hesitating to cut a loss when the edge is invalidated, hesitate to execute an edge when it shows up, etc.
I know some people believe I'm being too hard on myself. I respectfully disagree. If I can get the proper mindsets in place, I honestly believe that trading can become something that most think is impossible - it can become effortless.
You talk about casino but the fact is no casino will bet everything on single game table system it will always upgrade it's security to protect itself from card counters and anything that can decrease it's edge here you are betting on yourself huge difference . Trading on other hand it's complete different specially for individuals and winning comes at higher price. Winning in trading on a long period will require you to be habitual and I mean that in every sense in your trade setups to your risk hard and soft your targets your goals everything and specially if you want to maintain a life outside trading, because trading without goal will do more harm then good...
When you go back to live for few months switch and trade with a set daily goal at the least weekly goals more preferable but daily at the minimum do it for 3 months and you wont need any one to prove which method to choose... Just my one cent happy trading
Jinhar, I'd like to give another take on it for you.
When you have a profitable trade on, do you simply take profits because you are up x ticks? I doubt it. It's likely market based, we set targets based on technicals. Now, most of us will protect profits to some extent or another with some type of trailing stop.
I believe in treating my session the exact same way I would treat an individual trade. Take what the market offers, and protect giving it all back, but that is different than just walking away.
It's like closing out a trade just because it is in profits, and then you watch it run and run. If you would have placed a stop below the last swing or below the last candle even, you may have been able to stay in the extended move. This "cost" of allowing for more profits makes sense from a R:R perspective, and I believe it's no different in a cumulative sense for a session.
Just another way of looking at it. The correct answer is ultimately what's right for our own selves.
To be honest i do exit if my daily goal is hit and i do see many days market to go 50-100-200 ticks more in that direction but as you said all depends on trader to trader for me trading is a means to enjoy a great life so i like it at as minimum as possible. average time last year was less then hour on daily basis ... Anyways more power to you hope you nail your combine and find your trading peace ..
Before shifting to this I used to go nuts trading too capture every moment in market some months used to make a Killing and then give it up all after few months and when I tried to come up for the answer for my losses there was none on system as either it was working or was in no trade mode only thing out of order was me.. And by this time I was exhausted as this was heavy time invested so I came up with a solution to only got for ticks that I can make when my mind is off that's one to two trade for me and that's y I trade for 20.. The reason being on my day off of I can switch this mode off and fight to get in green but only on my day off rest all day when everything in order that's practice for the off day that's waiting in the future.
Is trading still fun yes but life outside is more fun trading now is just a means for it... If you really want to have an edge like casino define everything in your system and have 100 traders more trade it round the clock.. That's what I would do if I wanted to be like casino but for now m happy... Just my one cent
I guess I should say something helpful about it, instead of just posting it.
Well, we couldn't make lower lows around the 91.10 area... we broke out.. and I got in on the pullback (double bottom by the time I entered).
The plan:
I've expected CL to get to 92 for a few days now. That's the jackpot target, but likely we will retest the highs for today. Regardless I'll just be trailing a stop behind significant swing lows on my trading timeframe. I'll scale out at least half if we get to .70.
On the downside, breakeven is the worst outcome at this point.
and i do see many days market to go 50-100-200 ticks more in that direction but as you said all depends on trader to trader for me trading is a means to enjoy a great life so i like it at as minimum as possible. average time last year was less then hour on daily 