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TST Combine Journal


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TST Combine Journal

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  #81 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Today's review is about knowing where I am wrong initially on a trade, BUT then managing a trade properly beyond that initial risk. I did a poor, poor job of that today.








It's one thing to add to a position when you have "that feeling", it's another thing to add to a position because you want to be saved for the session. The wheels are falling off at this point, and I am not trading. I am watching a screen, hoping and rooting for a market to go one way "for me" versus another. I did not objectively manage risk as the trade developed. I did, want to be right.


I'm sure some of the entries were less than optimal, but that will always be the case. I must manage trades properly at every point in time. Will be considering a few ways to "mechanize" (hear develop process/rules) for managing winning trades over the weekend. I think I already know the answer.


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  #82 (permalink)
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Manta, Ecuador
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Another daily loss limit today. Very frustrating to put it mildly. It's my own fault today though.

I know you said its your own fault, and I commend you for taking responsibility.

But... you have a new variable that should not be discounted too quickly, and that is: performance anxiety. In other words, you are performing in front of a crowd, live. It is much different than what you did before, and it could be causing you to second guess or make different decisions than before.

Why force yourself to perform live? What is your reasoning here?

I think a recorded session highlight reel posted later, like others do as video journals, would relieve the anxiety and also still provide the education to members.

Mike

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  #83 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Trading: Cl, TF
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Another daily loss limit today. Very frustrating to put it mildly. It's my own fault today though. I had opportunities. Here's the overall picture. More analysis later after I take a break to clear my head.

I have found the price action on Cl to be pretty difficult to trade the last couple of days...at least for my style. I don't take big stops (usually around 10) and I try to get about 20 tick targets on average. So, except for a few brief moments where price had some strong breakouts, it's been very difficult and choppy.
I found that I started watching Gold a bit, because it has made some great strong trending moves the last few days. Cl gave me lots of losers this week and I usually do pretty well with it.

Failure is not an option
 
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  #84 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

The seven phases of my trading:

1. (Day 1) I've got a great method of trading, let's be patient, focus on having a probabilities mindset, take these setups, and manage risk.

2. (Two days later) I am having good success with this.

3. (7 days later) I am really on fire, I have been profitable for 9 sessions in a row.

4. (Next day) A breakeven day or two, I'll do better next session. Risk management is getting a bit inconsistent.

5. (Two days later) Daily loss limit hit, man, that sucked, I'll do better tomorrow. This is only a temporary setback.

6. (Next day) Daily loss limit hit again, wow, what am I doing? I've got to re-think this thing. I've got to question my setups, question my analysis, question my exits, question the market I am trading, question the timeframe I am trading, etc.

7. (A day or two) Spend hours and hours and hours pouring through charts, trying to find the answers to prevent the losing sessions I have. Find "the answer".

1. (Start at day 1) I've found it, I now have a great method of trading, let's be patient and take these setups, and manage risk properly.

------------

The truth is...the bottom line is that.... all of this is too emotional.

I need to focus more on simply executing my edge, which is in fact an edge... IF I execute the risk management methods that go along with it. You see... even as I say that, I am admitting that there is a difference in my mind between my "edge" (hear setups) and "risk management" (hear exits). There is no edge without both in place.

I must continually focus on keeping a probabilities mindset and executing my plan and processes.

I will admit that I am growing awfully tired of going through the 7 phases. I'm still net profitable over the full cycle, but it's taking a toll on my emotionally.

 
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  #85 (permalink)
Tulsa OK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader/Jigsaw Tools
Broker: Deep Discount Trading/TT
Trading: ZN, ZB
 
Posts: 162 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 138 given, 207 received


indextrader7 View Post
The seven phases of my trading:

1. (Day 1) I've got a great method of trading, let's be patient, focus on having a probabilities mindset, take these setups, and manage risk.

2. (Two days later) I am having good success with this.

3. (7 days later) I am really on fire, I have been profitable for 9 sessions in a row.

4. (Next day) A breakeven day or two, I'll do better next session. Risk management is getting a bit inconsistent.

5. (Two days later) Daily loss limit hit, man, that sucked, I'll do better tomorrow. This is only a temporary setback.

6. (Next day) Daily loss limit hit again, wow, what am I doing? I've got to re-think this thing. I've got to question my setups, question my analysis, question my exits, question the market I am trading, question the timeframe I am trading, etc.

7. (A day or two) Spend hours and hours and hours pouring through charts, trying to find the answers to prevent the losing sessions I have. Find "the answer".

1. (Start at day 1) I've found it, I now have a great method of trading, let's be patient and take these setups, and manage risk properly.

------------

The truth is...the bottom line is that.... all of this is too emotional.

I need to focus more on simply executing my edge, which is in fact an edge... IF I execute the risk management methods that go along with it. You see... even as I say that, I am admitting that there is a difference in my mind between my "edge" (hear setups) and "risk management" (hear exits). There is no edge without both in place.

I must continually focus on keeping a probabilities mindset and executing my plan and processes.

I will admit that I am growing awfully tired of going through the 7 phases. I'm still net profitable over the full cycle, but it's taking a toll on my emotionally.

Do you know what it is that is causing the strong emotions?

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  #86 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Mumbai, India
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
 
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Posts: 1,764 since Feb 2012
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indextrader7 View Post
The seven phases of my trading:

1. (Day 1) I've got a great method of trading, let's be patient, focus on having a probabilities mindset, take these setups, and manage risk.

2. (Two days later) I am having good success with this.

3. (7 days later) I am really on fire, I have been profitable for 9 sessions in a row.

4. (Next day) A breakeven day or two, I'll do better next session. Risk management is getting a bit inconsistent.

5. (Two days later) Daily loss limit hit, man, that sucked, I'll do better tomorrow. This is only a temporary setback.

6. (Next day) Daily loss limit hit again, wow, what am I doing? I've got to re-think this thing. I've got to question my setups, question my analysis, question my exits, question the market I am trading, question the timeframe I am trading, etc.

7. (A day or two) Spend hours and hours and hours pouring through charts, trying to find the answers to prevent the losing sessions I have. Find "the answer".

1. (Start at day 1) I've found it, I now have a great method of trading, let's be patient and take these setups, and manage risk properly.

------------

The truth is...the bottom line is that.... all of this is too emotional.

I need to focus more on simply executing my edge, which is in fact an edge... IF I execute the risk management methods that go along with it. You see... even as I say that, I am admitting that there is a difference in my mind between my "edge" (hear setups) and "risk management" (hear exits). There is no edge without both in place.

I must continually focus on keeping a probabilities mindset and executing my plan and processes.

I will admit that I am growing awfully tired of going through the 7 phases. I'm still net profitable over the full cycle, but it's taking a toll on my emotionally.



I have been though this cycle.

Especially 5 and 6.

Actually 5 lead to 6. (5 was when I almost hit my daily loss limit, 6 was when I actually hit it)

The reasons that 5 and 6 occur are because something inside me trips when 2 and 3 happen. Success becomes too hot to handle / I become fearless etc.

In the midst of this when 4 happens it crushes my fake ego and then becomes a precursor to going on tilt - holding holing holding saying 'now it will reverse') till the loss limit gets near.

Basically if we manage risk (and only think about point 1 and not be a bean counter i.e. not being too aware of the results but focusing on the process) we should survive the combine without too much thought processing.

I have postponed my combine from 6th March to 1st April - want to observe how it goes with NinjaTrader platform if it becomes available by then.

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  #87 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


jimjones26 View Post
Do you know what it is that is causing the strong emotions?

That's a good question Jim, thanks for bringing it up.

I think it's a combination of competitiveness, a need to be right, and a lack of strong enough belief in the real uncertainty of market behavior.

I think the root of it ultimately comes down to the (lack of) belief in uncertainty. If I had a strong enough belief that anything could really happen, and I am only trading an edge that gives me a slightly better than 50% chance of a favorable market movement, then there would be no real reason to feel like I want/ I need to be right on this trade.

That's my opinion of what I have to improve to overcome the cycle. But, I'm the dumb one in the cycle, so what the heck do I know?

 
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  #88 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


Big Mike View Post
I know you said its your own fault, and I commend you for taking responsibility.

But... you have a new variable that should not be discounted too quickly, and that is: performance anxiety. In other words, you are performing in front of a crowd, live. It is much different than what you did before, and it could be causing you to second guess or make different decisions than before.

Why force yourself to perform live? What is your reasoning here?

I think a recorded session highlight reel posted later, like others do as video journals, would relieve the anxiety and also still provide the education to members.

Mike

That's a good point Mike, and a part of me would like to just point the finger to that to take away a lot of the discomfort I feel. It could possibly be a factor. I'll certainly be aware of it going forward.

The fact is though, that I have gone through this type of cycle consistently over the past year. So the new variable of the live audience really hasn't changed anything. Interestingly, I think it actually makes me stick to my plan and loss limits even better. I do not want to look like a rogue insane trader in front of others, but by myself, I already know I can be a rogue-crazy and it's not embarrassing to myself. Sounds silly, but there's something deep in that.

 
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  #89 (permalink)
Tulsa OK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader/Jigsaw Tools
Broker: Deep Discount Trading/TT
Trading: ZN, ZB
 
Posts: 162 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 138 given, 207 received


indextrader7 View Post
That's a good question Jim, thanks for bringing it up.

I think it's a combination of competitiveness, a need to be right, and a lack of strong enough belief in the real uncertainty of market behavior.

I think the root of it ultimately comes down to the (lack of) belief in uncertainty. If I had a strong enough belief that anything could really happen, and I am only trading an edge that gives me a slightly better than 50% chance of a favorable market movement, then there would be no real reason to feel like I want/ I need to be right on this trade.

That's my opinion of what I have to improve to overcome the cycle. But, I'm the dumb one in the cycle, so what the heck do I know?

Seems like you might already know where you need to focus your efforts to make the most positive ground in your trading.


Quoting 
"With respect to trading -- no belief is worth more than your money is."

- FijiTrader


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  #90 (permalink)
denver, colorado
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Trading: ZS
 
Surly's Avatar
 
Posts: 704 since Mar 2011
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indextrader7 View Post
That's a good question Jim, thanks for bringing it up.

I think it's a combination of competitiveness, a need to be right, and a lack of strong enough belief in the real uncertainty of market behavior.

I think the root of it ultimately comes down to the (lack of) belief in uncertainty. If I had a strong enough belief that anything could really happen, and I am only trading an edge that gives me a slightly better than 50% chance of a favorable market movement, then there would be no real reason to feel like I want/ I need to be right on this trade.

That's my opinion of what I have to improve to overcome the cycle. But, I'm the dumb one in the cycle, so what the heck do I know?

I think you've nailed it here. A true belief in uncertainty would prevent one from ever over sizing positions or over trading. Developing that probabilistic mindset is a constant battle when you're learning more and more about market behavior. At least I find that to be the case. I also find that the more black and white I perceive the probable outcomes to be, the more I get my ego involved and the more I think in terms of right vs wrong and the more emotional/frustrated I get when losing.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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