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TST Combine Journal
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TST Combine Journal

  #421 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix, AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Multiple
Favorite Futures: CL, ES
 
rubyslippage's Avatar
 
Posts: 76 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 26 given, 487 received

I also have a full business plan for my trading, because despite having had excellent ideas and strong ability to "read the market", I had a nasty tendency to do all sorts of things like hesitate to put on a trade, then chase in after most of the move was over, or jump the gun and get positioned early at a "much better" price before any signal to trade had occurred, or get nervous and move my stop to break even before the market had a chance to pay me, or turn a day trade into an overnight trade into a swing trade into a long term trade into a "Holy sh*t, just make it stop" huge loss.

My plan is detailed and specific. I don't yet have the ability to trade by the seat of my pants; on the occasions when I do, the results are net negative. I can't trust the voice in my head because it tries to convince me my plan-based trades won't work and it tries to convince me to trade instead what I think price will do (and it has plenty of beliefs about that at all times). So I need absolute rules to keep the odds in my favor.

I know the odds of my trade setups reaching a minimum profit target before hitting a maximum stop loss. Because of this, I have no need to predict direction. There is no prediction nor opinion necessary. The statistics based on extensive research naturally produce profitable results if my execution is aggressive and my trade management is consistent. I may know that every trade I enter based on Setup A has a 70% of hitting profit target X before hitting an equal stop loss Y. So there's nothing at all for me to think about when I see Setup A; I simply place an order and when the order is filled I place my stop loss and take profit at target or better. I know that every single trade based on this pattern has 70% odds of winning if I use an equal R:R. Wow! How much better can it get?

Now I may also have a setup that has a 50% chance of hitting profit target X before hitting a stop loss Y half of value X. Now, how much better does it get than that? There's nothing to think about. Just see the pattern and place the order, knowing that the risk:reward is seriously in my favor and the odds are 50/50.

The plan itself is a little more than 20 pages, but the supporting documentation out of which the plan evolved includes a 420-page trading journal and more than 150 statistical analyses of the application of various trading ideas to daily price action (including entries, exits, contextual descriptions, max favorable and adverse excursions, and the results of various trade management ideas). These are real painstaking analyses, not computerized backtests.

This took an enormous amount of work, but it took me from a financial and psychological "bottom" to trading for a living and looking forward to it every trading day.

If you want any feedback on your plan-in-progress, I'd be glad to help!

The following 19 users say Thank You to rubyslippage for this post:
 
  #422 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: several
Favorite Futures: several
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received

TRADING PLAN - initial draft

This is absolutely not ironed out yet, but it's what I've put together so far. There are several of you that have made recommendations regarding trading plans, and I'd love to hear your input on this. I want this trading plan to be detailed enough so that if you've read this plan, and you see what I post that I did in the future, you could tell if a decision is in violation of the trading plan or not.

The important section starts with the blue heading a ways down below from the start of the trading plan.

I won't bore you with all the details, but I'll cover all the section headings, and I'll include the meat of the plan which includes how I'm managing risk, how I'm managing trades, and how I'm entering trades.


//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
NEXT TRADING PLAN REVIEW DATE
- May 18, 2013. (Monthly)

EMERGENCY CONTACTS
- Stage 5
• Account #
• 24hr trade desk –
• Anthony and Max direct #'s -

- Brighthouse

TABLE OF CONTENTS

MISSION STATEMENT
-

GOALS
-
-
-

CURRENT STATE

- Strengths
• Humility
• Read on short term orderflow

- Weaknesses
• Emotion and lack of proper belief systems
• Overtrading/whim/revenge/chasing/low probability trades
• Managing risk
• Following rules

- Plan for managing my current weaknesses:
• Have a reason for every trade
• Continually improve self awareness and self-discipline
• Creating this trading plan to follow

- Health

• Mind
 I will achieve a healthy mind through praying, reading, trading, playing guitar/violin, and chess.
• Body
 I will achieve a healthy body though playing tennis, golf, yoga, etc and sweating once a day
• Balance
 I will achieve a healthy work/life balance through making sure I devote time each day to Jess, stay in touch with my parents and sister, as well as see my friends and keep up with their lives.

RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
- Broker – S5
- Charting - Sierra
- Data Providers – T4/OEC

- Journals
• Trade Log – In order to capture entry/exit reasoning, ideas, things noticed/learned during the session, emotions, daily review notes, as well as keep up with process goals.
• Trading Spreadsheet – In order to keep up with key statistics and monitor trading performance in an unbiased manner.
- Economic Calendar
• Forexfactory

OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
- Procedures Manual to detail daily routines, including pre-session and post-session routines.

CONTINGENCY MANAGEMENT
- The Procedures Manual is to detail plans for dealing with any contingency which may occur during the trading session.

REVIEW PROCESS
- Daily
• Market Structure Review
• Setups/Trades taken
• Trades missed
• Psychological review
• Process goals for next session
- Weekly/ Monthly
• Performance Review
• Key lessons learned
• Statistical Review
- Biannual/ Annual
• Goals Review
• Business Review


HERE'S THE IMPORTANT SECTION FOR POSTING ON futures.io (formerly BMT) PURPOSES
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


TRADING PROCESS
- I’m trading the ES during RTH’s. I use market profiles and daily charts to determine longer term context. I look at the overnight action and where we’re opening relative to previous sessions profiles. This is all to determind the state of balance/imbalance.
- I then use key levels such as S/R, prev POC, prev high, prev low, IB, IB Ext, prev close, prev VAH, and prev VAL to lean off of these levels for trades that make sense within context.
- VWAP and it’s stdev bands are also used to keep things in perspective. Ideal trade locations are either fading band extremes, or taking pullbacks to VWAP itself. VWAP is also used to gauge the end of a trend, and when switching to a rotational strategy vs trending strategy is required.

- Analysis
• TPO balance/imbalance recently
• Brackets and S/R on daily charts
• Overnight action
• Where are we opening relative to ^^
 Inside previous session’s value area
 Outside previous session’s value area
- Setups
• Trending/imbalance context
 Entry aligned with trend on pullback to key area
• Ranging/balanced/rotational context
Fade extremes
- Entry
• Context ID’d > in area of interest > PA supporting premise > micro TLB or BOF entry on 2500vol chart
- Trade Management & Exit
• Position sizing – 4 lots – no more, no less.

• Stop loss
 Initially outside entry SH/SL on micro TLB by 2 ticks - 2 points max distance
 This stop can be moved to BE when I would no longer want to be in the trade if price retraced there
• Profitable exits (non discretionary half)
 Imbalance/trend
• Remain in trade until PA SH/SL violates trend or price trades back into DVA
• Can exit on target hit if desired
 Balance/range/rotational
• Target or stop
• Adding to positions NOT allowed for any reason
• Scale outs – Can take ½ off whenever it feels right. The rest must play out to plan.
- Other Risk Management
• No trades until AFTER opening swing is in place
• News – Flatten any position prior to major news unless built a > 2 point cushion
• Re-entry – 2 max attempts per any one setup
• Daily Loss limit - $1,600 (gross)
• 3 losing trades in a row = 10 minute break away from charts
• Accidental trade error/wrong click – manage trade extremely tight either it moves directly in favor/ scratch at BE / exit immediately
• Blatant breaking of a risk rule = donate your trading account to charity
This is still discretionary trading. My view of context and PA will certainly shift intraday at times, but I must have a reason behind any trade taken.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


Last edited by indextrader7; April 19th, 2013 at 10:03 AM. Reason: indentations
The following 9 users say Thank You to indextrader7 for this post:
 
  #423 (permalink)
Elite Member
columbus OH/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: TOS
Favorite Futures: ES TF NQ, CL NG
 
marcopolo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 183 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 238 received


This is a great trading plan. Still need ironing out but it contains a lot already -)

I'm puzzled by your trading size and instrument (4 ES) considering how the last 2 TST went..... Are you trading in simulator or live at S5?

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  #424 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: several
Favorite Futures: several
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received

CONTEXT
-Market has been imbalanced and trending down
-Yesterday closed down below daily bracket (range area), but, price hasn't been able to spend much time down here lately as it gets bought back up, BUT, this morning will be the first time we close below the bracket AND open the following session still below...
-ON session balanced on top of yesterday's VA (value area)
-Open within prev VA

Based on this, my ideal trade location will be
shorts near prev POC at 1541.25 or
the prev VAH(value area high) which coincides with the daily bracket low at 1543.50

I'm keeping the gap down below in mind (1527.25 down to 1521.25)

1535.50 (around yesterday's close*) has been the support level keeping price from this gap, so it's another key area to watch if we trade down that way. This also lines up with yesterday's VAL (value area low).

This of course is just an initial game plan, and I'll adjust as price action unfolds.

The following user says Thank You to indextrader7 for this post:
 
  #425 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Boston, MA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 5 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received

Hi everyone.
Fascinating discussions here.
Rubyslippage, very impressive arguments you gave on your last posting. I am on the same path; I have a full trading plan and I am building my statistical data base all manually using my excel skills and creating the analytical views while capturing as much information as possible about each trade.
I was wondering if I could ask you all for a quick feedback on something. If you believe my question is inappropriate for this thread, please accept my apologies. I've been patiently waiting for Ninja Trader to come back online with TST, but it sounds like it's not coming back any time soon. I was curious to learning your thoughts about using Ninja to generate the buy & sell according to my rules, but execute the trade on T4 using their DOM. The indicators I use are only for NT, that's why I need it. Does anyone have any insights into that? Is it practical and doable to have two platforms on screen? Thank you all.
Gabe

The following user says Thank You to gabrielc for this post:
 
  #426 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: several
Favorite Futures: several
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received


gabrielc View Post
Hi everyone.
Fascinating discussions here.
Rubyslippage, very impressive arguments you gave on your last posting. I am on the same path; I have a full trading plan and I am building my statistical data base all manually using my excel skills and creating the analytical views while capturing as much information as possible about each trade.
I was wondering if I could ask you all for a quick feedback on something. If you believe my question is inappropriate for this thread, please accept my apologies. I've been patiently waiting for Ninja Trader to come back online with TST, but it sounds like it's not coming back any time soon. I was curious to learning your thoughts about using Ninja to generate the buy & sell according to my rules, but execute the trade on T4 using their DOM. The indicators I use are only for NT, that's why I need it. Does anyone have any insights into that? Is it practical and doable to have two platforms on screen? Thank you all.
Gabe

Yes, it works fine. Just have T4 only have a DOM and use your NT charts. That's what I planned on doing before I found Sierra.

The following 2 users say Thank You to indextrader7 for this post:
 
  #427 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: several
Favorite Futures: several
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received

Just a quick mid morning update:

Taken both trades talked about in pre-mkt post. Both have been major reaction levels intraday.

Short off prev POC, and currently short from prev VAH. Both trades took two attempts to get in. Still in runner portion of this short from VAH.

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The following user says Thank You to indextrader7 for this post:
 
  #428 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Boston, MA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 5 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received

Thank you so much Indextrader.

The following user says Thank You to gabrielc for this post:
 
  #429 (permalink)
Elite Member
Portland, OR, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Investor r/t, X_Trader, ToS
Broker/Data: AMP/IQfeed
Favorite Futures: ES
 
zander931's Avatar
 
Posts: 493 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 1,496 given, 1,206 received


indextrader7 View Post
Just a quick mid morning update:

Taken both trades talked about in pre-mkt post. Both have been major reaction levels intraday.

Short off prev POC, and currently short from prev VAH. Both trades took two attempts to get in. Still in runner portion of this short from VAH.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Hey Index, fascinating thread. Thanks so much for sharing.

Great trades so far, congrats! Friendly reminder (you may have already noticed), the market put in a poor 1-tick high at 44.75 (may be dangerous for your runner)

Good luck!!

The following 2 users say Thank You to zander931 for this post:
 
  #430 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: several
Favorite Futures: several
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received



zander931 View Post
Hey Index, fascinating thread. Thanks so much for sharing.

Great trades so far, congrats! Friendly reminder (you may have already noticed), the market put in a poor 1-tick high at 44.75 (may be dangerous for your runner)

Good luck!!

Thanks.

Yep, got stopped out to the tick up there. I don't understand the concept of poor high/low (or even a strong high/low?). Could you tell me a little about what defines one of these and how you apply it to your trading?

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