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TST Combine Journal


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TST Combine Journal

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  #381 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
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indextrader7 View Post
I was going to keep this a secret, to simply take any outside "pressure" off the table, but I really do feel like I owe it to the people here to keep a journal like I said I would.

After I messed up that combine on Wednesday, April 3rd... I started a new one fresh on the following Monday, the 8th.

Here is the results so far. Friday was a big burn and definitely set me back, but I stopped trading before hitting the DLL, which is an improvement from my first combine!

My goal at this point is really just to trade well and manage risk. The emphasis is no longer on winning it. Screwing up that first one really brought me a big dose of humility. I'm seeing more and more how I'm not near as good of a trader as I thought I was. This isn't a negative self concept... it's actually the opposite... I had an over-inflated self concept which is just as detrimental as a low self concept. This is a healthy reality check, and I'm in a good place going forward.

I've come to realize that the weight of everyone I know, and the weight of everyone on futures.io (formerly BMT) is really not on my shoulders to perform... as I once imagined it to be.



I agree totally. It is funny how much pressure a public journal puts on you. I feel the pressure, even though I just have to follow my system. I can't imagine making trading decisions - trading in a discretionary fashion - while the whole futures.io (formerly BMT) world watches. Kudos to you for trying!

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  #382 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Balance

Everywhere we look - balance is key.

It's a recognition of limitations really. We can temporarily resist all these natural laws including balance, but we pay an inevitable price for doing so.

Physical balance, and emotional upset are like fire and water; they don't mix well. Try balancing on one foot. If you focus on being upset, you'll lose your balance. If you focus on your balance, you'll lose your upset.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another day that looks new to me in this journey of recognizing daily profile context.

What I do see:

- The profile looks ragged, and we probably need to do some "filling in".

- We've fallen back into an area that balanced for quite some time.


- After the big selloff on 2/25 the next day pretty much balanced across the lower half of that profile.


This leads me to look for a balanced/rotational day.. possibly wider ranging though, given the uncertainty and ragged profile from yesterday.

 
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  #383 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


I took a short at yesterday's POC on the profile's. Scale outs achieved, and I can guarantee you I'll be sticking with this runner until I'm SHOWN by the market that I don't want the trade on anymore. If orig stop is hit, the scales will have made it slightly profitable overall.


 
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  #384 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Confidence in this trade will go up exponentially if price can get accepted below this well defended open, which also puts us under the bracket high mentioned in pre-mkt post.

 
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  #385 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Ok, market just told me, "Hey, you don't want to be in this one anymore" So I got flat. We looked lower below the IB, snapped back (warning one) then I waited for a retest of the level and buyers were waiting there (warning two). Out.

This is a big deal for me. It wasn't easy at times to just hold this position.


 
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  #386 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Well.... I did not successfully hold my runner this time. I got caught up in very very short term orderflow. I bailed when sellers stepped in and quickly rejected an attempt at a new high for the day and pushed us below the previous mini swing high.

Gotta back out and only trade bigger picture. As I've mentioned, it's very different for me, so this will take time to perfect.


 
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  #387 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Took a short position based on:
a) Excess low from 4/10
b) Excess high from 4/9
c) Therefore ^^ there's a CLVN at 65.25
d) the rally losing steam in the area
d) expectation for rotational day back towards VWAP

Seems like we're balancing kind of a replica of 4/9 today




Scale out taken already on the current short, holding runner with target of ETH VWAP.

 
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  #388 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Update on that short trade:

Ended up adding to a full position again, getting scale outs again, then scratching the thing. Price was clearly not being accepted into the developing value area.




To me it's the ultimate quest in trading... to figure out whether at any point in time, the market is going to go for a continuation type move, or rather simply rotate between extremes. Trend vs range.



That'll be it for me today. I'll post the TST report when it comes out later this afternoon.

Overall today felt pretty good. I had a decent bead on what was happening all through the day. Even my decisions to exit (when I really knew I didn't want to be in anymore) would have been great trades to stop and reverse on. That typically is the case when I'm seeing things well.

I was super stressed out for that short trade. Fading an "uptrend" on my trading timeframe IS NOT something I am used to, and it went against every fiber in my being to put that trade on. In hindsight, I was uncomfortable for a reason - it was clearly a counter-trend trade in what is now in hindsight an uptrend since we broke to new highs.

No risk management issues today. Although I felt pretty shocked to see that after my 2nd trade (loser) I was BE on the day. The first trade was so long and went so far in my favor, and then to have a nearly instant stop out on the 2nd trade.... take a look at P/L.... and see I was flat.... It's showing the downside of scaling out for sure. It does make me question it a bit... but the other side of the coin is still there. Scaling out allows risk to be managed VERY effectively after a small move in my favor, sit back and allow the final 1/3 of the position to do it's thing. There's no right answer.

Really when I look at my trades plotted on the chart today, I don't see much of a difference in what they looked like before (just trading ST PA) and now (having TPO's up and referencing daily levels and such, looking to play the bigger picture). Maybe that's because my game plan didn't work out today. 2 of my 3 winning trades were not with the major direction today. I think this is OK. I think that I executed my plan pretty well... adjusted on the fly nicely... and did the best I could with what I saw today. Other days I will have the "right" game plan, and will see some big big profits for hanging in there longer and adding. No good opportunities for that today.

 
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  #389 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Only thing out of whack is how I currently have a larger average losing day than average winning day. This will work itself out naturally, given risk is managed properly.



There's a major discrepancy in how TST calculates trades, and how I see them. I had one losing trade today, as you can see from my fills on the chart shared earlier. TST has me down for 5 consecutive losers. I suppose on my 6 lot it filled as 1, 1, 1, 1, 2. So that one loss is actually 5 losses in their eyes. The MAJOR problem with this is that whether a 6 lot fills as one trade for the full 6 lot; or six trades of 1 lots, is totally random based on other players in the market at the time of my fill. So this can really screw up stats from what they should be... could be in my favor... could be against me... It's not ideal though.

 
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  #390 (permalink)
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I could be wrong, but a 6 lot that fills against 6 1-lots is still probably counted as a single "trade" using a FIFO matching method.

Here's the difference--in Sierra, when you use attached orders and have multiple targets, say, 3 targets and stops, then you will see that there are three separate entry orders, not one single one, because of the way the attached orders must use OCO.

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