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TST Combine Journal

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  #101 (permalink)
columbus OH
 
 
Posts: 1 since Dec 2011
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Thanks so much for all your posts - It's really informative.

Quick question on number of trades per day? Do you find 20 trades a lot? Are you just scalping... My commissions would kill me.....

Do you have a daily target? I would have been happy doing your first trade and doing research/relax rest of day -)

Looking forwards reading your posts!

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  #102 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


dublinguy99 View Post
Thanks so much for all your posts - It's really informative.

Quick question on number of trades per day? Do you find 20 trades a lot? Are you just scalping... My commissions would kill me.....

Do you have a daily target? I would have been happy doing your first trade and doing research/relax rest of day -)

Looking forwards reading your posts!

Welcome to futures.io (formerly BMT), firstly, you've found a good trading community.

Yes, 20 trades are a lot of trades, even for me. My average is closer to 5.

Right now I'm doing a combination of scalping and holding a position trade.

I have no daily target. I don't believe in it, but if someone were to convince me based on facts that I should have one, I would. Does a casino (which has an edge, like me) ever close its doors? I want to take as many opportunities of my edge that present themselves for the taking.

 
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  #103 (permalink)
Como Italy
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Does a casino (which has an edge, like me) ever close its doors? I want to take as many opportunities of my edge that present themselves for the taking.

That makes a lot of sense, and it also makes sense not to observe some arbitrary limit when things are going well. But the casino analogy can be misleading, because you aren't a casino, and your trades don't have an edge in the same way that a casino's roulette wheel has an edge. And the casino's roulette wheel doesn't suffer from fatigue, or emotional responses, or sugar imbalances, etc etc.

I watched the markets too long today, and ended up succumbing to fatigue, frustration and other emotional ills by taking two incredibly poor trades, both of which took full stops.

Great posts you've been making about this process. I share a lot of those struggles with wanting it to be exciting, losing interest as soon as I've understood how to do something, etc. - to say nothing of the expectation of being right.

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  #104 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I started my new 20-trade exercise today. I did a lot of thinking and journaling last night. Most of the trouble I had in the first exercise was from trying to mechanize my subjective way of trading, and the frustrations that stemmed from that. I decided to take a slightly more objective approach for this next sample size. (I can assure you this decision was only made to maximize my focus on my mindset, as opposed to focusing on "Is THIS a signal?").

If this method is still too subjective and still causing problems, next exercise I will literally trade some dumb MA-crossover system or something that is 100% black and white. I'm calling it right now, I know without a doubt that I could follow a system like that with no regard for profitability and no 2nd guessing anything; because I wouldn't care. I know the method probably doesn't have an edge, and its not something I've created... something I'm proud to trade.

Anyways, we'll see if we need to even go there after this exercise #2.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, today I took 4 trades. I had zero problems managing trades for stop losses, nor problems taking profits. I also had zero problems knowing where my setups/edges were.

From the trade analyzer here, you can see that I'm trading on a lower timeframe than before (tiny hold times), and risk management is TIGHT (tiny MAE's allowed). I'm scalping to say the least.







I had no emotions while I was in trades. I really didn't care if they worked out, and I took what the market offered.

The problem I did have?

Made 5 mistakes today. All 5 mistakes were NOT taking valid entry signals due to fear. What is the fear? I think it's a fear of being wrong. This fear shows up more so with me when I am up for the session because I don't want to give back profits or mess up a nearly flawless session. 4 of the 5 skipped setups were winners.

This is a belief system that I currently have, and it's in conflict with the belief that I am working to replace it with. That new belief I am working on is a belief in uncertainty on the micro level (individual outcomes) and a certainty at the macro level (longer term edge over proper sample size). I am putting a lot of effort into fixing this.

If I truly believe in an uncertain outcome of each edge/setup, and I expect that virtually anything can happen... (Otherwise, the moment I "know" what will happen, my brain subconsciously starts filtering out information!)... if I truly believe in the uncertainty... there WILL BE NO CONFLICT in jumping the gun on an edge before it's even there, hesitating to cut a loss when the edge is invalidated, hesitate to execute an edge when it shows up, etc.

I know some people believe I'm being too hard on myself. I respectfully disagree. If I can get the proper mindsets in place, I honestly believe that trading can become something that most think is impossible - it can become effortless.

 
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  #105 (permalink)
mumbai maharashtra/india
 
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indextrader7 View Post

I have no daily target. I don't believe in it, but if someone were to convince me based on facts that I should have one, I would. Does a casino (which has an edge, like me) ever close its doors? I want to take as many opportunities of my edge that present themselves for the taking.

You talk about casino but the fact is no casino will bet everything on single game table system it will always upgrade it's security to protect itself from card counters and anything that can decrease it's edge here you are betting on yourself huge difference . Trading on other hand it's complete different specially for individuals and winning comes at higher price. Winning in trading on a long period will require you to be habitual and I mean that in every sense in your trade setups to your risk hard and soft your targets your goals everything and specially if you want to maintain a life outside trading, because trading without goal will do more harm then good...

When you go back to live for few months switch and trade with a set daily goal at the least weekly goals more preferable but daily at the minimum do it for 3 months and you wont need any one to prove which method to choose... Just my one cent happy trading

-jinhar


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  #106 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


jinhar View Post
You talk about casino but the fact is no casino will bet everything on single game table system it will always upgrade it's security to protect itself from card counters and anything that can decrease it's edge here you are betting on yourself huge difference . Trading on other hand it's complete different specially for individuals and winning comes at higher price. Winning in trading on a long period will require you to be habitual and I mean that in every sense in your trade setups to your risk hard and soft your targets your goals everything and specially if you want to maintain a life outside trading, because trading without goal will do more harm then good...

When you go back to live for few months switch and trade with a set daily goal at the least weekly goals more preferable but daily at the minimum do it for 3 months and you wont need any one to prove which method to choose... Just my one cent happy trading

-jinhar


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Jinhar, I'd like to give another take on it for you.

When you have a profitable trade on, do you simply take profits because you are up x ticks? I doubt it. It's likely market based, we set targets based on technicals. Now, most of us will protect profits to some extent or another with some type of trailing stop.

I believe in treating my session the exact same way I would treat an individual trade. Take what the market offers, and protect giving it all back, but that is different than just walking away.

It's like closing out a trade just because it is in profits, and then you watch it run and run. If you would have placed a stop below the last swing or below the last candle even, you may have been able to stay in the extended move. This "cost" of allowing for more profits makes sense from a R:R perspective, and I believe it's no different in a cumulative sense for a session.

Just another way of looking at it. The correct answer is ultimately what's right for our own selves.

 
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  #107 (permalink)
mumbai maharashtra/india
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Jinhar, I'd like to give another take on it for you.

When you have a profitable trade on, do you simply take profits because you are up x ticks? I doubt it. It's likely market based, we set targets based on technicals. Now, most of us will protect profits to some extent or another with some type of trailing stop.

I believe in treating my session the exact same way I would treat an individual trade. Take what the market offers, and protect giving it all back, but that is different than just walking away.

It's like closing out a trade just because it is in profits, and then you watch it run and run. If you would have placed a stop below the last swing or below the last candle even, you may have been able to stay in the extended move. This "cost" of allowing for more profits makes sense from a R:R perspective, and I believe it's no different in a cumulative sense for a session.

Just another way of looking at it. The correct answer is ultimately what's right for our own selves.

To be honest i do exit if my daily goal is hit and i do see many days market to go 50-100-200 ticks more in that direction but as you said all depends on trader to trader for me trading is a means to enjoy a great life so i like it at as minimum as possible. average time last year was less then hour on daily basis ... Anyways more power to you hope you nail your combine and find your trading peace ..

-Jinhar

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  #108 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


jinhar View Post
To be honest i do exit if my daily goal is hit and i do see many days market to go 50-100-200 ticks more in that direction but as you said all depends on trader to trader for me trading is a means to enjoy a great life so i like it at as minimum as possible. average time last year was less then hour on daily basis ... Anyways more power to you hope you nail your combine and find your trading peace ..

-Jinhar

Thank you for sharing. I certainly don't know it all, and I am appreciating the conversation with you here today.

If you would, please walk through this in more detail with me.

1. What is your daily target, in ticks (average ticks per contract traded)

2. What market(s) is this in?

3. How did you come up with that daily target? What was the analysis/facts/trend that led you to it?

4. What, on the other hand, is your daily stop loss (also in ticks)?

Looking forward it your response,

-IT7

 
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  #109 (permalink)
mumbai maharashtra/india
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Thank you for sharing. I certainly don't know it all, and I am appreciating the conversation with you here today.

If you would, please walk through this in more detail with me.

1. What is your daily target, in ticks (average ticks per contract traded)
A-Till last year it was 20 right now increased but that sample size is low.
2. What market(s) is this in?
Crude
3. How did you come up with that daily target? What was the analysis/facts/trend that led you to it?
A-That's what my Average trade used to go in my favor before stalling

4. What, on the other hand, is your daily stop loss (also in ticks)?
A-40
Looking forward it your response,

-IT7

Before shifting to this I used to go nuts trading too capture every moment in market some months used to make a Killing and then give it up all after few months and when I tried to come up for the answer for my losses there was none on system as either it was working or was in no trade mode only thing out of order was me.. And by this time I was exhausted as this was heavy time invested so I came up with a solution to only got for ticks that I can make when my mind is off that's one to two trade for me and that's y I trade for 20.. The reason being on my day off of I can switch this mode off and fight to get in green but only on my day off rest all day when everything in order that's practice for the off day that's waiting in the future.
Is trading still fun yes but life outside is more fun trading now is just a means for it... If you really want to have an edge like casino define everything in your system and have 100 traders more trade it round the clock.. That's what I would do if I wanted to be like casino but for now m happy... Just my one cent

-jinhar

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  #110 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Current position. Built up a nice one.



I guess I should say something helpful about it, instead of just posting it.

Well, we couldn't make lower lows around the 91.10 area... we broke out.. and I got in on the pullback (double bottom by the time I entered).

The plan:

I've expected CL to get to 92 for a few days now. That's the jackpot target, but likely we will retest the highs for today. Regardless I'll just be trailing a stop behind significant swing lows on my trading timeframe. I'll scale out at least half if we get to .70.

On the downside, breakeven is the worst outcome at this point.

 
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  #111 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

^^^ Above post might as well have been a big bull on the cover of Time magazine. haha

 
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  #112 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I'll manage this trade on a live webcast if anyone wants to join:

It may be the most boring thing ever. Or not...


https://join.me/indextrader7

SESSION CLOSED NOW.

 
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  #113 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
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Is this a prep for TST trade? If so, I'm sure you are aware you must close the position by 3:10pm CT; are you expecting 92 by that time today?

 
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  #114 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Yes, thanks man. 1:30 is my session ending time, so I just closed out the remainder.




josh View Post
Is this a prep for TST trade? If so, I'm sure you are aware you must close the position by 3:10pm CT; are you expecting 92 by that time today?


 
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  #115 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Here's how it went.

Took first half off after price was quickly rejected at new highs. Took rest off when swing low that led to that high failed.


 
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  #116 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Well, I scalped from 7am until 1:30pm today. 25 trades. Keep in mind this is on sim, and it's a mental exercise I'm doing. I have no real concern for trades, other than to follow rules and manage them as best I can. The main thing I'm focused on is how I FEEL during trades.

Yesterday, I hesitated on a few setups. Today, I didn't do that, so kudos there.

The problems today? I should not allow trades to go past 10 ticks on me. That went out the window today; I had six trades that had MAE's beyond 10 ticks.

On those trades today that I allowed past 10 ticks, a few things happened that I noticed:
1. I really wanted to "be right" on them. Noted in journal.
2. I would start to look at other timeframes, other information, searching for ANYTHING to give me a reason to "hang on" a little longer.

This is a good thing to notice, because it's something that needs to be fixed.

Other than that, I executed the system well today. Today was certainly not a day that was conducive to that method, but that's beside the point.

Being 100% honest, it is embarrassing to write these things down here. I feel like I should be "better" than this. I feel awkward for putting myself out there as someone who can "help others" with trading, because I now see myself as the one who needs help. I'm not having a pity party here, it's just the truth that it's hard to continue to make my weaknesses public. It's shaming. (Probably a good motivator to continue to improve though right?!)

Here is the 20+ trade sample.

A zero expectancy (gross) for this sample set. 50% winners, 9 tick average win, 9 tick average loss. (negative expectancy after commissions on the 29 trades)

Here's a cumulative look at the past two days trades, which completes this exercise for the 29-trade sample. This chart was made using the output function that the S5 trade analyzer has. I just combined yesterday's and today's outputs.



Results of the exercise:

- I really did make less mental mistakes than the first exercise, so that is a good thing for sure.

- I can tell that I am becoming much more self-aware. This is a very very good thing. If I get nothing from these exercises other than an increased self-awareness, then they will have been time well spent.

- I still struggle with wanting to be right on trades. Which, in this exercise, led me to hesitate. Yesterday, I hesitated on a few entries, today I hesitated on a few exits. Interesting to me how it was only a one-sided problem each day. I wonder if there is anything behind that dynamic...

Focus for the next exercise:

- Keep improving self-awareness. Right now I am catching myself in the act of committing errors; next, I will catch myself even thinking about them (before I commit the crime).

- Larger sample size. Because scalping can lead to so many trades, I'm going to extend the sample size for Exercise Round 3 to be time based. It will start tomorrow, Friday the 8th, and go through next Friday, the 15th.

- Continue to remove energy from the idea that I need to be right. Continue to add energy to the idea that I don't need to know what's going to happen next in order to make money.

- I will be taking this exercise live soon, no more sim exercise.



Guys, this is so much work. I feel completely uncomfortable. This is probably a good thing, but it is so hard.

 
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  #117 (permalink)
Tulsa OK
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Guys, this is so much work. I feel completely uncomfortable. This is probably a good thing, but it is so hard.

Everything worth having in life requires work IMO.

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  #118 (permalink)
Denver, CO
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Guys, this is so much work. I feel completely uncomfortable. This is probably a good thing, but it is so hard.

Good work on your progress! If it was easy, everyone would be doing it. I think trading is uncomfortable because the needed mindset is very different from many other areas in life.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #119 (permalink)
Kampala, Uganda
 
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IT7...I really appreciate the honesty and transparency in this thread. Great stuff

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  #120 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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indextrader7 View Post

- I really did make less mental mistakes than the first exercise, so that is a good thing for sure.

- I can tell that I am becoming much more self-aware. This is a very very good thing. If I get nothing from these exercises other than an increased self-awareness, then they will have been time well spent.

Focus for the next exercise:

- Keep improving self-awareness. Right now I am catching myself in the act of committing errors; next, I will catch myself even thinking about them (before I commit the crime).


Guys, this is so much work. I feel completely uncomfortable. This is probably a good thing, but it is so hard.

Keep up the good work!

We are all standing besides you on this wonderful community @Big Mike. If you ever feel you need some data crunched let me know and I will do it for you. I know how huge and insurmountable the multiple tedious tasks of trading feel (and I used to be actually THRILLED while trading a few years ago, LOL).

Starts with review, planning, what-if, keeps you on your toes waiting waiting waiting to no end for low risk setups, then keeping yourself patient and further patient and composed till a proper exit presents itself, then further self-awareness to stop ego from a profitable trade and fear adding from a losing trade and not letting both affect you on the next trade, rinse repeat for hours --- and ends with record-keeping, self-awareness again. Takes the life out of you. Almost makes me feel promoting myself to a swinger from a scalper!

Great job, and all the best on live!

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  #121 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Current position. Well balanced day, fading the lower end of the range with this long.

You can see where my stop is. Target is upper end of consolidation.


 
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  #122 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


 
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  #123 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Slight addition to the plan... just in case the TL holds.

Also, you can see stop is now at BE@ .11


 
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  #124 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Glad with the mid-flight adjustment!

Remainder scratched, given strength of sellers off the TL.


 
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  #125 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I took a short pullback trade, it went in my favor a good bit, but turned around and got me at BE. Now, same setup as before. Even better chances of it working now.


 
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  #126 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


 
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  #127 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Mostly through with this trade. 1 lot left on to see what it can do. My expectation is for the RTH highs in the 60's to hold, but I am not right very often, so we'll just let price tell me what it's doing. I'll trail below swing lows on the 250tick until proven wrong.


 
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  #128 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

And that is that. Sharp sellers print across those highs, i'm out.



Trade well executed, with a proper mindset. Check.

 
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  #129 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Today went quite well, psychologically speaking. I did a really good job of staying in the "now moment opportunity flow". A session like today, with practically no winning trades until the end, would typically have really frustrated me. I didn't feel frustrated at all today. I'm not over the hump entirely, probably far from it, but I can see improvements; and that is all I can ask for.

Here's the trade analyzer with today's trades.... ignore the first trade, it was a crazy fill thing and is not accurate. A data issue.





I really don't have much to say about today's trading in itself. It was a business as usual kind of day. A grind for most of the day until a nice winner at the end.

Here's something I've noticed so far in reviewing my trades for the week.

I took almost 70 trades this week. Get ready: Only 7 of the 70 trades had MFE's greater than 20 ticks.... this. blows. my. mind.

In today's session alone... during the time I was trading.... CL moved a new directional 20+ tick swing EIGHTEEN TIMES... just today. And I've managed to capture 7 of them in 70 attempts this week????????

 
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  #130 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Merritt, a glance at your MFE vs your actual exit is a bit concerning. Are you all in/all out or are you scaling out? I'm still trying to get used to reading the S5 analyzer report, trying to remember what FT71 said about the BSO column.

I'm sure you've done research in this area to determine what your optimal targets should be?

Mike

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  #131 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


Big Mike View Post
Merritt, a glance at your MFE vs your actual exit is a bit concerning. Are you all in/all out or are you scaling out? I'm still trying to get used to reading the S5 analyzer report, trying to remember what FT71 said about the BSO column.

I'm sure you've done research in this area to determine what your optimal targets should be?

Mike

I guess we have to cut me some slack, because I wasn't looking for 10 tick moves today, I was trying to catch trends (like the one I caught at the end of the day), and I was managing risk quite well.

Here's what I know Mike.... any feedback is more than welcomed. Anyone for that matter... PLEASE offer good advice if you know what you're talking about.

The Trade Analyzer from today is pretty thrown off from the data error/demo fill. Here is an adjusted one using the output from it, with a correction for that first trade. Also, this one is in average ticks per contract, as opposed to # contracts x number of ticks as displayed in the original post.



So... given this lack of "MFE capture" for lack of a better term, I've started doing some homework on things. The first thing I noticed was that I get 10 ticks MFE quite often. I also try to keep my stops around that level. So I did a test, what would my performance have been if I took a trade, then let it go +10 or -10 whichever comes first. (I said to myself, "Surely I am way better at managing trades than this.")

Here is this today's trade analyzer data... with the overlayed hypothetical p/l for the same entries but managing to +/-10 ticks:



woah.....

So, we need more data.

Here is the whole week's trade analyzer data, again with the overlayed +/-10 tick method.



So, we need more data.

I went and did this test, manually stepping through all my entries since I started "combine practice" and switched to trading CL on 2-19. I don't have trade analyzer MAE/MFE going back this far, so I'm just comparing P/L in ticks between what I did, and what the +/-10 did.



One thing is that my own performance had the largest winning trade of my life in there. (+175 or something on the scale out) +96 total average ticks per contract on the trade. so I removed this outlier trade from my performance.



Other variables to consider... I've been doing this Mark Douglas mental/mechanical method exercise lately, and my performance has flat-lined in doing so. I'll need to forward test this and/or go back through more normal performance.

I have never, before today, given much consideration to any type of hard target. I am re-considering, but what I really need is someone that knows way more than me to help guide me through this research...

 
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Firstly,let me say that this is fantastic stuff Indextrader and the amount of time and work you put into keeping this blog up as well as your day trading is absolutely incredible.

This upcoming Tuesday I begin the TST 150K 10 day min combine with only a profit target as a goal. I am a S/D intraday swing trader. I have made my living in this fashion with an extremely tried and true method of trading for the past 5 years. I will be focusing primarily on the ES as that is my specialty during the NY session, although I keep several selected contracts on the radar for high reward/low risk opportunities.

Unlike yourself I am extremely private and protective of the exact details of my system and my charts as I have worked extremely hard to define my edges and locate the numbers I use to trade with. I prefer complete isolation when I trade with the sole exception of a news ticker to determine market catalyst times and keep my finger on the pulse of the markets.

That being said best of luck in your journey. You will be starting when I am finishing mine up. I will certainly check in to see how your combine is progressing.

Good luck

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  #133 (permalink)
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Merritt, I always appreciate how on top of your trade statistics you are. Fantastic job as usual.

Can you help me remember what FT71 said in the last webinar about the BSO column? If I remember right, it's "best scale out". So the figure represents just 1 lot out of 'x' total on, and is the actual exit of that 1 lot?

So trade #11 for example:



4 lots on, best scale out = 16 ticks. Does this mean your best single exit (1 lot) was +16? Since your net was 43 on the trade, and MFE was 75, I'm just trying to put the pieces together in my head for how you managed the trade.

Enjoy your weekend.

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indextrader7 View Post
I have never, before today, given much consideration to any type of hard target. I am re-considering, but what I really need is someone that knows way more than me to help guide me through this research...

Did you watch yesterday's FT71 webinar here on futures.io (formerly BMT)? He gave a lot of good advice about targets and had a lot of statistics to back it up.



Mike

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indextrader7 View Post
So... given this lack of "MFE capture" for lack of a better term, I've started doing some homework on things. The first thing I noticed was that I get 10 ticks MFE quite often. I also try to keep my stops around that level. So I did a test, what would my performance have been if I took a trade, then let it go +10 or -10 whichever comes first. (I said to myself, "Surely I am way better at managing trades than this.")

Also referring back to yesterday's webinar, FT refers to it as a rotational factor and went into detail about calculating it. There are already user-contributed studies for NinjaTrader in the thread I linked and in the Master Homework thread so you could adapt it to your market and crunch the numbers to make sure your stop is sized properly.



Mike

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Big Mike View Post
Merritt, I always appreciate how on top of your trade statistics you are. Fantastic job as usual.

Can you help me remember what FT71 said in the last webinar about the BSO column? If I remember right, it's "best scale out". So the figure represents just 1 lot out of 'x' total on, and is the actual exit of that 1 lot?

So trade #11 for example:



4 lots on, best scale out = 16 ticks. Does this mean your best single exit (1 lot) was +16? Since your net was 43 on the trade, and MFE was 75, I'm just trying to put the pieces together in my head for how you managed the trade.

Enjoy your weekend.

Mike

I'll visually explain it. Trade #11:



and the total MFE would be the 16 ticks that all 4 lots went plus the additional 5 ticks up the the very high peak that the remaining 2 went.

 
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indextrader7 View Post
I'll visually explain it. Trade #11:


Thanks. I am getting hung up on some columns being for all lots, and other columns being for a single lot. So your scale out there for +16 x2 lots was actually very close to the MFE on the trade, nicely done for that.

Mike

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Big Mike View Post
Thanks. I am getting hung up on some columns being for all lots, and other columns being for a single lot. So your scale out there for +16 x2 lots was actually very close to the MFE on the trade, nicely done for that.

Mike

Yes, I wish they would fix that. BSO is in a different "language" than the rest of them. I would prefer that they are all in average ticks per contract. That is much more relateable to the actual rotations in the instrument traded.

 
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  #139 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
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Despite that. I have to give a huge thank you to FT71 and those guys for the trade analyzer. I've been using it one week, and it's already revolutionized how I'm seeing my trading.

So, Mike, any tips based on the data I've presented? It looks like it could be a wash either way to me, although the 10 tick method is better on a risk adjusted basis (50 tick max DD, versus my 100 ticks)...

 
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indextrader7 View Post
Despite that. I have to give a huge thank you to FT71 and those guys for the trade analyzer. I've been using it one week, and it's already revolutionized how I'm seeing my trading.

So, Mike, any tips based on the data I've presented? It looks like it could be a wash either way to me, although the 10 tick method is better on a risk adjusted basis (50 tick max DD, versus my 100 ticks)...

Our styles are very different, would not apply and I am not really keeping up with all that you are doing, so best for me to not comment. You are clearly on the right path, just keep going. FT71 said himself yesterday in the webinar he was impressed with your journal here on futures.io (formerly BMT).

Mike

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  #141 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
Despite that. I have to give a huge thank you to FT71 and those guys for the trade analyzer. I've been using it one week, and it's already revolutionized how I'm seeing my trading.

So, Mike, any tips based on the data I've presented? It looks like it could be a wash either way to me, although the 10 tick method is better on a risk adjusted basis (50 tick max DD, versus my 100 ticks)...



Where can a man find this Trade Analyzer?

....great work, brother.


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  #142 (permalink)
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You have to become a client of FT71's brokerage, and use their trading platform. (I'm a client, but use Ninja.)

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Where can a man find this Trade Analyzer?

....great work, brother.

Ya, what futuretrader said. It's called Stage 5 Trading. I just papered my account there yesterday.

 
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  #144 (permalink)
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Index - have you read denise shull's book or watched any of her webinars? She's a good compliment to Mark Douglas. She is somewhat critical of Mark Douglas (I disagree with some of her critique) and I think she takes too much solo credit for her ideas but she's really smart and most of her ideas are right on and provide good perspective on system trading, emotions, etc. Most importantly she emphasizes the importance of judgment - i.e., making decisions in the face of uncertainty, why this is difficult, and how best to think about how to approach the problem.

If you're interested there are many free webinars including a good one on this very site. Also Trader Kingdom I believe and maybe Mirus? Google will tell all...

Good luck!

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  #145 (permalink)
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Index - have you read denise shull's book or watched any of her webinars? She's a good compliment to Mark Douglas. She is somewhat critical of Mark Douglas (I disagree with some of her critique) and I think she takes too much solo credit for her ideas but she's really smart and most of her ideas are right on and provide good perspective on system trading, emotions, etc. Most importantly she emphasizes the importance of judgment - i.e., making decisions in the face of uncertainty, why this is difficult, and how best to think about how to approach the problem.

If you're interested there are many free webinars including a good one on this very site. Also Trader Kingdom I believe and maybe Mirus? Google will tell all...

Good luck!

No, I've never read/watched anything of hers. I will check something out when I have time. THANKS for mentioning it, very kind of you.

-IT7

 
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  #146 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
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After a ridiculous data crunch session....it gives nothing but a mostly ambiguous answer lol. I have come to something more conclusive in a few ways though.

So, I've gone through every trade from two distinct periods: 1) live trading (starting december 2012, when I came back after taking a week off), through feb 8th 2013) and 2) sim trading (feb of this year through yesterday 3-8-13) about 370 trades for the sample size.

Here's the P/L in ticks for both what I actually did, and what would have been for the +/-10 trade mgmt method. Blue = mechanical 10 tick method, red is my actual trading (discretionary mgmt).




It was pretty surprising to me to see how correlated the results were. For some reason I thought there would be a clear winner.

What I can garner from this information:

1) As much as I would not like to admit it, I really don't outperform the basic +/- 10 ticks method when it comes to managing trades. (Idea: look further into the +/-10 method trade by trade to see if it was as good as me because of smaller losers or larger winners, or it could be the fact that the method was roughly the same as me on both ends.)

2) Using this would likely take a lot of emotion out of trading for me. (Or it could open up another bag of issues as I continually point out where "I would have done better")

3) Using an equal combination of these two methods would produce an equity curve of the average of these two lines... This would reduce volatility all the while, giving up zero upside. Coming from a Merrill Lynch background, that is a huge deal and people pay others millions to be able to find ways to do it. It's like adding another fund manager to my portfolio with the exact same expectancy or average rate of return, while having a correlation between those managers (pause: idea... check correlation... ok the correlation coef. between the data sets on an individual trade basis is 0.24 (24% correlated nice!), while the correlation on the cumulative running P/L's of the sets is (89%).

I could be missing something, actually it would be really surprising if I wasn't missing something very obvious.

What do you guys see? What am I missing? What have I not considered?

 
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I'm trying to catch up with your thread before I speak


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  #148 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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indextrader7 View Post
After a ridiculous data crunch session....it gives nothing but a mostly ambiguous answer lol. I have come to something more conclusive in a few ways though.

So, I've gone through every trade from two distinct periods: 1) live trading (starting december 2012, when I came back after taking a week off), through feb 8th 2013) and 2) sim trading (feb of this year through yesterday 3-8-13) about 370 trades for the sample size.

Here's the P/L in ticks for both what I actually did, and what would have been for the +/-10 trade mgmt method. Blue = mechanical 10 tick method, red is my actual trading (discretionary mgmt).




It was pretty surprising to me to see how correlated the results were. For some reason I thought there would be a clear winner.

What I can garner from this information:

1) As much as I would not like to admit it, I really don't outperform the basic +/- 10 ticks method when it comes to managing trades. (Idea: look further into the +/-10 method trade by trade to see if it was as good as me because of smaller losers or larger winners, or it could be the fact that the method was roughly the same as me on both ends.)

2) Using this would likely take a lot of emotion out of trading for me. (Or it could open up another bag of issues as I continually point out where "I would have done better")

3) Using an equal combination of these two methods would produce an equity curve of the average of these two lines... This would reduce volatility all the while, giving up zero upside. Coming from a Merrill Lynch background, that is a huge deal and people pay others millions to be able to find ways to do it. It's like adding another fund manager to my portfolio with the exact same expectancy or average rate of return, while having a correlation between those managers (pause: idea... check correlation... ok the correlation coef. between the data sets on an individual trade basis is 0.24 (24% correlated nice!), while the correlation on the cumulative running P/L's of the sets is (89%).

I could be missing something, actually it would be really surprising if I wasn't missing something very obvious.

What do you guys see? What am I missing? What have I not considered?

Let me ask you one question . It seemed like up until a week or so ago, you were getting pretty good results from your trading and seemed fairly confident in your methods. Then you ran into some unusually choppy and chaotic market conditions on Cl and had some losing days (I didn't do all that well on the same days you had troubles with.) Then you began analysing and feeling something was wrong and started all these experiments ..such as taking random entries and looking at statistics and your emotional feelings during these trades.

I don't think random Sim entries are a good way to evaluate your emotional levels during trades. Certainly it will not compare with live trades or even an actual Combine where there is some "Skin in the game. "
Unless you are testing a system..with clear rules and a criteria for entry, then in my opinion the data generated is meaningless.
I would have examined those days where you failed and asked myself did I have a plan at the beginning of the session ..knowing at which price levels I would wait for...or did I just let the market lure me in and didn't follow any real plan or system.

You seem like you know how to trade . Don't let a few bad days send you down a Rabbit Hole of endless testing and self doubt. Been there..done that. I wasted a year on generating meaningless statistics.

Look at key price levels..generate a plan in advance to know what you will do at those price levels. Don't trade anything that doesn't fit into that plan.Try to win twice as much as you lose on average. ( I go for 21 ticks..with stops around 10 on Cl..and it's working very well.)
Just my two cents. I know the statistics geeks won't like this post.

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  #149 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Let me ask you one question . It seemed like up until a week or so ago, you were getting pretty good results from your trading and seemed fairly confident in your methods. Then you ran into some unusually choppy and chaotic market conditions on Cl and had some losing days (I didn't do all that well on the same days you had troubles with.) Then you began analysing and feeling something was wrong and started all these experiments ..such as taking random entries and looking at statistics and your emotional feelings during these trades.

I don't think random Sim entries are a good way to evaluate your emotional levels during trades. Certainly it will not compare with live trades or even an actual Combine where there is some "Skin in the game. "
Unless you are testing a system..with clear rules and a criteria for entry, then in my opinion the data generated is meaningless.
I would have examined those days where you failed and asked myself did I have a plan at the beginning of the session ..knowing at which price levels I would wait for...or did I just let the market lure me in and didn't follow any real plan or system.

You seem like you know how to trade . Don't let a few bad days send you down a Rabbit Hole of endless testing and self doubt. Been there..done that. I wasted a year on generating meaningless statistics.

Look at key price levels..generate a plan in advance to know what you will do at those price levels. Don't trade anything that doesn't fit into that plan.Try to win twice as much as you lose on average. ( I go for 21 ticks..with stops around 10 on Cl..and it's working very well.)
Just my two cents. I know the statistics geeks won't like this post.

Thanks for the feedback! First I want to clarify that I have not been using random entries of any kind. The exercise was to mechanize my current method of discretionary trading in order to focus more on mentalities than market analysis. That was a difficult thing to try and do.

I have not lost any confidence in what I do. I'm simply working on improving my belief systems/mentalities, and also keeping an open mind that the way I do things may not be the best, so I always explore an avenue when I get the idea.

 
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  #150 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
You seem like you know how to trade . Don't let a few bad days send you down a Rabbit Hole of endless testing and self doubt. Been there..done that. I wasted a year on generating meaningless statistics.

Just my two cents. I know the statistics geeks won't like this post.

@lancelottrader, I agree with you. I think that some simple stats can be very telling, for example, very large MAE vs. MFE is a warning sign, as is MAE vs. closed profit. And expectancy per trade, max drawdown over a period, etc., are good numbers to know.

But those only tell part of the story, and it's up to the trader or a coach to interpret those numbers and then hypothesize the underlying issues. A day with a string of losers with small MFEs really tells you nothing about the cause of the problem. Maybe there was no problem at all, and pure bad luck took a victim.

So, I think basic stats are good, because they can alert us to risk violations and to impulsive trading (for example, short amount of time between a string of losing trades can be indicative of impulsive trading, and a consistently high MAE even on winning trades means "blow up coming soon") and the like. But beyond this, we still need to understand what we are doing, how well we are planning, how well we are executing, how well we are adapting and changing the plan when called for, how well we are understanding the context of the day and adapting accordingly, and other factors, and stats do not so easily tell us this.

I would venture a guess that most people who have some bad days and have the stats attached to it really don't know how to then approach "fixing" things. An examination of the approach heading into the day (if there even was one), and an analysis of the actual market conditions and how the trader traded those conditions would probably a good place to start. The trader may find that he was generally right in his approach, just too early much of the time, for example, which would tend to indicate a fear of missing out and therefore an approach geared towards the trader's expectations and psychology may be warranted. But if the trader was just dead wrong, and bought the tops and sold the lows, it might indicate a lack of understanding the structure of the day and the context of the market as a whole, and perhaps the approach would be to do some actual market study to see if there were early signs of the type of day it would be, where the market was trading in relation to previous days, and how the trader could have been more market savvy in general. These are just two examples, and stats alone will unfortunately not tell the whole story here.

On a different note, IT7, I'm enjoying your thread and look forward to your continued posts, keep it up!

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  #151 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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josh View Post
@lancelottrader, I agree with you. I think that some simple stats can be very telling, for example, very large MAE vs. MFE is a warning sign, as is MAE vs. closed profit. And expectancy per trade, max drawdown over a period, etc., are good numbers to know.

But those only tell part of the story, and it's up to the trader or a coach to interpret those numbers and then hypothesize the underlying issues. A day with a string of losers with small MFEs really tells you nothing about the cause of the problem. Maybe there was no problem at all, and pure bad luck took a victim.

So, I think basic stats are good, because they can alert us to risk violations and to impulsive trading (for example, short amount of time between a string of losing trades can be indicative of impulsive trading, and a consistently high MAE even on winning trades means "blow up coming soon") and the like. But beyond this, we still need to understand what we are doing, how well we are planning, how well we are executing, how well we are adapting and changing the plan when called for, how well we are understanding the context of the day and adapting accordingly, and other factors, and stats do not so easily tell us this.

I would venture a guess that most people who have some bad days and have the stats attached to it really don't know how to then approach "fixing" things. An examination of the approach heading into the day (if there even was one), and an analysis of the actual market conditions and how the trader traded those conditions would probably a good place to start. The trader may find that he was generally right in his approach, just too early much of the time, for example, which would tend to indicate a fear of missing out and therefore an approach geared towards the trader's expectations and psychology may be warranted. But if the trader was just dead wrong, and bought the tops and sold the lows, it might indicate a lack of understanding the structure of the day and the context of the market as a whole, and perhaps the approach would be to do some actual market study to see if there were early signs of the type of day it would be, where the market was trading in relation to previous days, and how the trader could have been more market savvy in general. These are just two examples, and stats alone will unfortunately not tell the whole story here.

On a different note, IT7, I'm enjoying your thread and look forward to your continued posts, keep it up!

Some excellent points. I agree 100%.
My journaling usually will include detailed descriptions of that days market conditions..what strategy I thought would work best in those conditions and the results. That way one can examine which strategies worked best under certain market conditions. The data generated by that can obviously tell you what type of conditions and market structure is most suitable for that individual trader's particular style and their overall pre -market trade plan.

Cl can have days where many entries have fast pushes that have tremendous follow through. Those are days where you can time in and ride out a multitude of runners. Other days you have times where almost every move goes a few ticks, chops back and forth ..and goes nowhere. These are the days that used to kill me . When I sense it it one of those days, I wait untill a major price point is reached before making any trades. Only then, if there is a sufficient reaction..will I take a trade.

My journals with the market condition data has helped me navigate these treacherous conditions far better than I used to.

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  #152 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
I could be missing something, actually it would be really surprising if I wasn't missing something very obvious.

What do you guys see? What am I missing? What have I not considered?

I've been following your journal but haven't posted before. Keep up the good work!

The one caveat I would offer here is that this kind of mechanical testing you're conducting now can produce misleading results. So the 10 tick hard target performed well last month; doesn't mean it will continue to do so. Maybe next month all the moves start reversing at 9 ticks.

If you're able to stay profitable by using discretion on your exits, then that is ideal. A discretionary trader can adjust with market conditions, which will change dramatically over time (not might change, but will change).

Just a couple of thoughts. Adding the 10 tick hard target as a "diversifying" strategy might continue to work well but you can't count on that based on this small number of trades all taken during the same period in history.

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  #153 (permalink)
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The perspective from the daily chart. Something to keep in mind...


 
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  #154 (permalink)
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Today was a great day as far as having the proper trader mindset goes. Really quite good, but not perfect.

After checking the news today, I got the idea to set a loop timer to be a reminder to bring me back to where my mind should be, and read through important mental beliefs and such that I have written out (all Mark Douglas stuff).

I set it to go off every half hour. It's a free tool I found at Loop Countdown - Repeating Timer - Loop Timer if anyone is interested.

7:00 to 7:22 - I did notice a bit of frustration felt due to the fact that the market was absolutely not moving. I noted this feeling, and refocused.

7:48 Long taken. Stopped out for full loss. (-9)

*In between trades (looking for next edge) I noticed, "I'm fully aware of my desires to anticipate signals today." This is a good thing for me to notice myself thinking about.

8:10 Long taken. Scaled out 2/4 (+10). Market reverses very sharply and takes out my stop on 2nd half (-14).

*the market is telling me something by that type of activity.

8:26 Short. Market flatlines. I stay in the trade doing nothing for nearly half an hour. Full stop hit (-11)

9:05 Short. Scaled out 2/4 (+10), Another lot at (+18), and the final lot at (+30).

9:33 Long. Full exit, given transition period in trend (+12)

10:01 Long. " " " " (+12)

10:37 Long. " " (+11)

10:55 Long " " (+7.5)

Done for the day. Nice job of trade execution and self awareness.

Here are the trades:






 
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  #155 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Hey guys, I'm trying to find what the pattern in CL price action has been over the past six trading days from 11:30CST to pit close at 13:30CST..... I could really use a sharp eye to help me see if there is any similarities... I've highlighted the time of day with a rectangle on each day's chart...

March 4th:



March 5th:


March 6th:


March 7th:


March 8th:


Today, March 11th:


Let's see if I mess it up by calling it out!

 
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  #156 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart
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Amazing how it sells off right at the end of those periods. Uncanny really.


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  #157 (permalink)
PTA, Gauteng
 
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Hey it7,

Not sure if the S5 platform shows your entries and exits, but if it's not too much of a mission could you please post your charts showing your entries/exits as well as your trade analyzer results. It would help those of us learning from your journey to see the whole picture.

Nevermind if it's a hassle.

Many thanks.

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  #158 (permalink)
denver, colorado
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Today was a great day as far as having the proper trader mindset goes. Really quite good, but not perfect.

After checking the news today, I got the idea to set a loop timer to be a reminder to bring me back to where my mind should be, and read through important mental beliefs and such that I have written out (all Mark Douglas stuff).

There is a program I use that is free on the web called "freebienotes" - it allows me to create a series of pop-up notes with customizable messages that pop up onto my screen at pre-set times of the day. E.g., I have a note that come up before the open to remind me to create a plan for the open based on different possibilities. I also have a reminder around 10 am mst that reminds me we are entering a time of day that is often choppy and to be careful. I have maybe 10 popups that come up throughout the day reminding me of technical and mental aspects of my trading plan.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #159 (permalink)
Germany
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Hey guys, I'm trying to find what the pattern in CL price action has been over the past six trading days from 11:30CST to pit close at 13:30CST..... I could really use a sharp eye to help me see if there is any similarities... I've highlighted the time of day with a rectangle on each day's chart...

Thanks indextrader....I is gonna be so much rich now

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  #160 (permalink)
Pittsburgh PA
 
 
Posts: 14 since Feb 2013
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Have you started your combine...

 
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  #161 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Mumbai, India
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Today was a great day as far as having the proper trader mindset goes. Really quite good, but not perfect.

After checking the news today, I got the idea to set a loop timer to be a reminder to bring me back to where my mind should be, and read through important mental beliefs and such that I have written out (all Mark Douglas stuff).

I set it to go off every half hour. It's a free tool I found at Loop Countdown - Repeating Timer - Loop Timer if anyone is interested.

A big THANK YOU for that resource! Just what I was looking for!


indextrader7 View Post

7:00 to 7:22 - I did notice a bit of frustration felt due to the fact that the market was absolutely not moving. I noted this feeling, and refocused.

*In between trades (looking for next edge) I noticed, "I'm fully aware of my desires to anticipate signals today." This is a good thing for me to notice myself thinking about.

Your journal is unique because you don't just focus on the market part, you also focus on what is MY state at the moment part which makes us feel we are sitting right next to you and observing your mind through a glass on your forehead while you are trading. Thanks!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
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  #162 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


targetfilled View Post
Have you started your combine...

Not yet. No rush.

 
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  #163 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012




@DarkPoolTrading here are the CL trades on a chart for you today:

Got chopped up a bit early on, but then we got some continuation and I was there and available for it.





...and two later in the day:




I've got to run to have lunch with a buddy, but I'll post my more detailed review later. Wow, the bottom is falling out as I type this...

 
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  #164 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I will admit it. Trading CL is taking a toll on me. It's so demanding. It's so fast. It's so mean!

I feel as though my returns (especially on a risk adjusted basis) have diminished. I will, however, finish this Exercise #3 I'm currently in with the same market through the end of the week as planned.

I will be taking a hard look at ES though. I know it's "slow" compared to CL, but that is welcomed at this point. I really do feel worn out.

Ok, enough of the pity party. Here are the cumulative results since I began Exercise #3 last Friday. This is my sheet I import the trade analyzer data into. The results are in average ticks per contract traded.




Mentalities:

They have been quite good actually! Things have become much easier since I got away from TRYING to be so mechanical, when that is not what I do. I'm really embracing the uncertainty of the markets, although I would be lying if I said I didn't want to be right on every trade. At least I am acknowledging that it's impossible to know the outcome of trades, which is a huge benefit when it comes to trade management.

The problems, frustrations, and weariness are coming from trying to trade so TIGHTLY in such a wild market.

 
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  #165 (permalink)
kansas city, KS.
 
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Hi IT7,

Here is my post from your previous thread on 3rd November.

" You are doing a great job of being consistently profitable. Why did you move from TF to CL?. If I am moving to CL from TF, I could expect my profit to go up 2 to 3 folds else not trade CL as the drawdowns to much more severe on CL.

In my opinion, you could easily make more than 20-25 Ticks just by going to higher tick count and being selective in trading. "

I think what I wrote then is still vaild and kind of knew you will have large of drawdown in the way you are trading the CL then. 10-20 Tick in CL is pure noise. The way I see it - you should go for trades that will give you more ticks, meaning use a large tick chart. You will get 3 to 5 trades in normal day, but that is all you need.

Why are you thinking of ES, when you have a thread dedicated to TF. Price action in ES is better than TF but the spread will eat you up if you trade two many times in a day. Check YM price action is similar to ES and the spread better than ES.

Above are just my opinion, all the best to you.

Good Trading.

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  #166 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
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efutures View Post
Hi IT7,
Check YM price action is similar to ES and the spread better than ES.

YM is all good but the tick price is only 5 bucks and the commission is another 5 bucks (on TST for that matter), so you just give up 1 tick to pay for the trade, while in ES or 6E you only pay same 5 bucks while 1 tick costs 12.5, so the costs are less than half of for YM. Same with contracts, you have same number of contracts for ES, YM or anything else, so dollar-wise you cannot gain as much bucks for your ticks. Sure, volatility is higher on YM but then you need to more than double your targets in ticks to gain the same buck for your limit contracts number to match ES, 6E or CL.

PS not sure how come spread is better on YM, unless during news release ES is always 1 tick spread, sometimes even 0. Only in a sense that it is 1 tick on both but 1 tick costs less on YM the spread is just 5 bucks not 12.5 in YM, if you must use market orders, but this is offset by higher (relative to tick value) commissions.

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  #167 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
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xelaar View Post
PS not sure how come spread is better on YM, unless during news release ES is always 1 tick spread, sometimes even 0. Only in a sense that it is 1 tick on both but 1 tick costs less on YM the spread is just 5 bucks not 12.5 in YM, if you must use market orders, but this is offset by higher (relative to tick value) commissions.

It does not matter what type of order you use, you pay the spread. If you use a limit to enter and exit, the market has to move 1 tick to fill you, so your 1 tick gain becomes a scratch. The spread exists always, it's what makes a market. A zero spread is not practically possible for any instrument, for normal type trading anyway.

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  #168 (permalink)
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
Posts: 563 since Jan 2013
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efutures View Post
" You are doing a great job of being consistently profitable.

I think what I wrote then is still vaild

Well, it is not. On the last chart posted, after 35 trades he is at breakeven, that is not consistent...

 
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  #169 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
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xelaar's Avatar
 
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josh View Post
It does not matter what type of order you use, you pay the spread. If you use a limit to enter and exit, the market has to move 1 tick to fill you, so your 1 tick gain becomes a scratch. The spread exists always, it's what makes a market. A zero spread is not practically possible for any instrument, for normal type trading anyway.

I agree but unless you are filled to the tick and then price reversed or reversed one tick shy you don't suffer from the spread. All said commissions toll is much more visible on the statement.

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  #170 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

For some reason, venting about CL bothering me yesterday helped me today. I had a much stronger detachment from each 10 or 15 tick swing, and really stuck with my guns. It's like I grew acceptance of the fact that CL is wild, instead of trying to mentally control it tick by tick, haha.

As usual though, I had single trade MAE's that are equal to my daily profits. So I'm only making about 1 unit in terms of R on most profitable days. I'm better in other markets. Actually I'm being hard on myself as usual, my average R today was 58 ticks, and I made 144 ticks... so actually I came out with 2.5R. I'm so mean to me unless I make a conscious effort not to be!

Here's the trades, both on a chart and the trade analyzer.









--------------------------------------------------------


Tomorrow will be the final day of Exercise 3. If feels like a finish line! I'll give a detailed review/analysis/next steps after tomorrow's session.

I also want to say thanks to everyone that takes the time to offer feedback, criticism, and encouragement. I feel honored each time you do.

 
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  #171 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

The cumulative results for Exercise 3, in average ticks per contract traded format. (March 8th through today) Tomorrow will be last day.


 
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  #172 (permalink)
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
Trading: ES
 
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indextrader7 View Post
The cumulative results for Exercise 3, in average ticks per contract traded format. (March 8th through today) Tomorrow will be last day.


Nice work. I see a positive trend in you P/L that's about +15ticks per day.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #173 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Ok, exercise 3 is done! It went Friday the 8th through Friday the 15th, trading one method, in one market. My focus was nearly always more on my thoughts, feelings, and actions than it was on my analysis or trades.

It's amazing... the pendulum of trading for me... it's a constant swing back and forth between:

1. This is SO HARD, it takes every bit of courage, discipline, and brainpower I can possibly muster.

and

2. This is SO EASY, I am really quite a natural at this. Yeah, losses happen. Keep them small. No big deal.


If you remember, it is that emotional cycle (which a lot more stages in it than the two listed above which are mainly capitulation points) which led me to this journey of trying to improve my mentalities and beliefs about trading.

I think I was a bit naive to think that these things could be perfected. From digging further into this, I realize that since we ARE emotional creatures, we will always have some natural "tendencies". Don't get me wrong, I still believe that we can practically take all the energy out of them and they may rarely show up, and when they do show up, we can have a great self-awareness to quietly acknowledge them as part of our self trying to vie for its version of the truth. In the end, with continued hard work on this specific area, great strides can be made. I feel that way after just a few weeks. I also feel like this is the work of trading now. Even up until this exercise, if you were to break down what I thought the work of trading was, I would still place the majority of that pie chart with analyzing trend and finding high probability setups AKA the analysis part of it. I no longer find that to be true.

(One side note I want to say for others, less far along this trading journey then me is this: What truths I'm finding now may not even be the real truth. I think we must find out own truths that make our belief systems work for our trading. This could get really complicated, and it's not the purpose of this post, but I just wanted to mention it. Find YOUR own truths out there, that is what this is all about)

I think my most important development as a trader has really just begun! (Get this new traders, I've been trading off and on for 9 years!) Honestly, I also think I'm just now really becoming mature enough for trading. In college and stuff, I simply didn't have some of the tools mentally/emotionally that I have now.
___________________________________________________________________________


My main victories in Exercise #3:

- No major hesitations in cutting losses (believing that anything can happen in the markets, despite my good analysis).
- Much more consistently taking my scale outs (believing that although my analysis says to buy here, I don't know what is going to happen, so I should take some off the table as it is made available to me).
- Realizing that I am on a "higher" level of trading - more subjective intuitive trading
- Being WAY more in the "now moment opportunity flow" due to the belief in uncertainty. I can remember really getting hung up on what I thought was going on in the past, and taking loser after loser trying to implement my plan on the market. This is because I was biased, and my brain automatically filtered out information that didn't coincide with that bias. With a stronger belief in uncertainty, and only looking for my edges as they are PRESENTED (not guessing what is going to show up) I'm able to stay in the "zone" and see things for what they are.
- Knowing myself more has led me to become painfully aware that I don't want to be trading CL. At least not scalping it for 10 ticks for hours and hours a day. I can see it being a market I monitor, and take setups that I absolutely can't pass on.


Main areas for improvement:

- I can promise you that I still WANT to be right on every single trade I take. I'm continuing to work on this flawed way of thinking. It can lead to errors. The belief I want to have is probably closer to believing that the trade is PROBABLY GOING TO BE A LOSER, so I sure as heck will protect myself, and take my scale outs when made available.

- I did not paper journal as much as I should have during exercise 3. It's like things were going so effortlessly, that I didn't need to write anything down. This is sad to me, because I may have now missed out on very valuable emotional/other information to use going forward. What was I thinking while things were so easy? What was my state of mind? etc. I don't know. Huge gap in my emotional data set...

- Patience in waiting for optimal setups. I tend to want to take every occurrence of any type of my edge, when if more patient, I could take the most promising setups and really increase my bottom line. Although, this is kind of a catch 22... because on one hand I am not sure it's possible to see the "best" setups at the hard right edge, on another hand, I think it's possible for various reasons. I know that I absolutely take some subpar setups and I know they're subpar when I take them.
_______________________________________________________________________________

Here are all the trades for the 6 sessions that made up this exercise period:



______________________________________________________________________________


Here are all the trades for the full 3 exercises. Interesting how things changed when I stop trying to be mechanical and simply focused on my mentalities while trading the way I know how to.



Regardless of how P/L went from chopping around going nowhere, to an uptrending equity curve... BOTH types of exercises were beneficial to me. Each presented unique challenges and tests of my mental framework as a trader.

______________________________________________________________________________

I'll be going back to live trading as soon as I get my new account funded this week.

There are developments with me trading ES as well, which I'll cover in a future post.

 
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  #174 (permalink)
In the heat
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Ok, exercise 3 is done! It went Friday the 8th through Friday the 15th, trading one method, in one market. My focus was nearly always more on my thoughts, feelings, and actions than it was on my analysis or trades.

It's amazing... the pendulum of trading for me... it's a constant swing back and forth between:

1. This is SO HARD, it takes every bit of courage, discipline, and brainpower I can possibly muster.

and

2. This is SO EASY, I am really quite a natural at this. Yeah, losses happen. Keep them small. No big deal.


If you remember, it is that emotional cycle (which a lot more stages in it than the two listed above which are mainly capitulation points) which led me to this journey of trying to improve my mentalities and beliefs about trading.

I think I was a bit naive to think that these things could be perfected. From digging further into this, I realize that since we ARE emotional creatures, we will always have some natural "tendencies". Don't get me wrong, I still believe that we can practically take all the energy out of them and they may rarely show up, and when they do show up, we can have a great self-awareness to quietly acknowledge them as part of our self trying to vie for its version of the truth. In the end, with continued hard work on this specific area, great strides can be made. I feel that way after just a few weeks. I also feel like this is the work of trading now. Even up until this exercise, if you were to break down what I thought the work of trading was, I would still place the majority of that pie chart with analyzing trend and finding high probability setups AKA the analysis part of it. I no longer find that to be true.

(One side note I want to say for others, less far along this trading journey then me is this: What truths I'm finding now may not even be the real truth. I think we must find out own truths that make our belief systems work for our trading. This could get really complicated, and it's not the purpose of this post, but I just wanted to mention it. Find YOUR own truths out there, that is what this is all about)

I think my most important development as a trader has really just begun! (Get this new traders, I've been trading off and on for 9 years!) Honestly, I also think I'm just now really becoming mature enough for trading. In college and stuff, I simply didn't have some of the tools mentally/emotionally that I have now.
___________________________________________________________________________


My main victories in Exercise #3:

- No major hesitations in cutting losses (believing that anything can happen in the markets, despite my good analysis).
- Much more consistently taking my scale outs (believing that although my analysis says to buy here, I don't know what is going to happen, so I should take some off the table as it is made available to me).
- Realizing that I am on a "higher" level of trading - more subjective intuitive trading
- Being WAY more in the "now moment opportunity flow" due to the belief in uncertainty. I can remember really getting hung up on what I thought was going on in the past, and taking loser after loser trying to implement my plan on the market. This is because I was biased, and my brain automatically filtered out information that didn't coincide with that bias. With a stronger belief in uncertainty, and only looking for my edges as they are PRESENTED (not guessing what is going to show up) I'm able to stay in the "zone" and see things for what they are.
- Knowing myself more has led me to become painfully aware that I don't want to be trading CL. At least not scalping it for 10 ticks for hours and hours a day. I can see it being a market I monitor, and take setups that I absolutely can't pass on.


Main areas for improvement:

- I can promise you that I still WANT to be right on every single trade I take. I'm continuing to work on this flawed way of thinking. It can lead to errors. The belief I want to have is probably closer to believing that the trade is PROBABLY GOING TO BE A LOSER, so I sure as heck will protect myself, and take my scale outs when made available.

- I did not paper journal as much as I should have during exercise 3. It's like things were going so effortlessly, that I didn't need to write anything down. This is sad to me, because I may have now missed out on very valuable emotional/other information to use going forward. What was I thinking while things were so easy? What was my state of mind? etc. I don't know. Huge gap in my emotional data set...

- Patience in waiting for optimal setups. I tend to want to take every occurrence of any type of my edge, when if more patient, I could take the most promising setups and really increase my bottom line. Although, this is kind of a catch 22... because on one hand I am not sure it's possible to see the "best" setups at the hard right edge, on another hand, I think it's possible for various reasons. I know that I absolutely take some subpar setups and I know they're subpar when I take them.
_______________________________________________________________________________

Here are all the trades for the 6 sessions that made up this exercise period:



______________________________________________________________________________


Here are all the trades for the full 3 exercises. Interesting how things changed when I stop trying to be mechanical and simply focused on my mentalities while trading the way I know how to.



Regardless of how P/L went from chopping around going nowhere, to an uptrending equity curve... BOTH types of exercises were beneficial to me. Each presented unique challenges and tests of my mental framework as a trader.

______________________________________________________________________________

I'll be going back to live trading as soon as I get my new account funded this week.

There are developments with me trading ES as well, which I'll cover in a future post.


I think this is a great self analysis...one that will pay great dividends in the future....

I have only one question....regarding instruments....in moving to ES, will you be scalping there as well? If so, what will your targets look like in terms of number of ticks normally? And about how long does this normally take? I ask because I haven't looked at an ES chart in over two years....at least not more than a minute or two.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #175 (permalink)
danville ca usa
 
 
Posts: 51 since Mar 2012
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I remember "way back" when you were trading TF

I seem to remember early on that you only traded for a few hours each day starting from the futures open, believing that is the time period when most of the moves are good for daytrading.

I have been doing that for several years now and most of my trades are from the futures open over the next 4-5 hours. After that I kick back, watch the market move and only trade when the market shows strength.

just "remembering"

toucan

 
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  #176 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


PandaWarrior View Post
I think this is a great self analysis...one that will pay great dividends in the future....

I have only one question....regarding instruments....in moving to ES, will you be scalping there as well? If so, what will your targets look like in terms of number of ticks normally? And about how long does this normally take? I ask because I haven't looked at an ES chart in over two years....at least not more than a minute or two.....

Honestly I've become lost as to what the term scalping really means. On top of that, I think it means different things to different people. So I'll talk in terms of what I do know.

I can tell you that I have always traded in a manner where I get a feel for how a market ebbs and flows. I try to take a big chunk out of those normal rotations, and in the case of a trend, I typically leave on a portion of my initial position to run if it will else stop out at BE. If in a steady intraday trend, I may look to take off profits at extended moves, and then add them back on pullbacks. So I guess nothing drastically different than how I've ever traded. I am focusing a bit more on the larger picture than I have been before, so we'll see what effect that has, if any, on my trading.

As you know, I've been taking trades in ES over the past 3 days.

So far here is what that looks like: (chart is in POINTS, not ticks)




I'm quite excited about the returns I'm seeing in ES..... ON A RISK ADJUSTED BASIS. Remember when I used to be obsessed with R ? I kept up with p/l in terms of average realized R, hypothetical R, largest R for the day, etc. Any way you dice this up, I'm making good returns so far given the amount of risk planned for a trade or the amount of actual MAE taken on trades.

Here's a screenshot of trades from March 14th:



March 13th trade analyzer data:


(My S5 demo trial ran out on the 15th, so I don't have it for then) I traded Ninja that day and here's the last pic I took:


I think that's the best I can answer for the limited data I have now.

 
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  #177 (permalink)
Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: TastyWorks
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@indextrader7

Have you asked to trade TF in a Custom Combine? I know a couple of traders who were allowed trade instruments not on the approved list. Would not hurt to ask. (maybe you already have??) As I recall you were quite adept at trading TF.

As far as moving to ES; I have traded ES, CL, GC, 6E, 6J, UB; out of this bunch ES and 6E were the most difficult to trade because they were the most irrational in their movements. I found what worked this week in ES may not work next week. Be sure to give yourself enough evaluation time.

If your looking for something similar to TF's movement, take a look at 6J (yen) 300ish tick. The chart patterns are similar to the TF time frame you were trading.

Good Luck!

Robert

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  #178 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Since this is, afterall, a TST Combine journal, I figured I would also give an update for my "practice combine" results.



The two daily loss limit days... followed by the mechanical testing flatline... have put me behind schedule for hitting the P/L goal, but not by much.




Here's running win% and win:loss ratio. Hanging by a thread with a passing grade in these!




No need in asking me when I'll start the combine officially. When I know, you'll know.

 
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  #179 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
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It's a great effort, good luck! I am simulating combine in spreadsheets myself.

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  #180 (permalink)
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I'm pretty sure that it takes close to a 60% winning pct for reverse position sizing (RPS) to work out in the long term. Carrying your largest loser per trade from the initial entry while peeling off contracts on the winners raises the avg loser per trade and lowers the avg winner. The higher winning pct is needed to make the expectation formula a positive number. [opposite holds true too...adding to winners lowers the LT winning pct to 40% and below...hard to take emotionally but payouts can wipe out many, many small losers]

The higher volatility of the CL (vs the ES) exposes "the math" of RPS sooner because there are more setup signals per day for a scalper. The main reason for small traders to embrace higher volatility instruments (with simple all-in / all-out contract sizing) is because the RR ratios are more favorable for 40-55% winning pct systems to provide a positive expectancy. The ES tends to force small traders to have higher winning pcts (remember: RR ratio and win pct are inverse relationships)

For any tests of emotional fortitude along with proving out the viability of an edge, one may as well trade 1 contract. Then, it's all about simple RR and winning pct and not skewing of the win pct to account for win/loss size imbalances brought on by RPS (or add to winners).

Mark Douglas was into RPS...now he's a trading psych guru. Strongly urge everyone to read page 265 of the 1st ed of Van Tharp's "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom". He talks about RPS there, just not as spelled out in the numbers as I have described.

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  #181 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
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SteveH View Post
I'm pretty sure that it takes close to a 60% winning pct for reverse position sizing to work out in the long term. Carrying your largest loser per trade from the initial entry while peeling off contracts on the winners raises the avg loser per trade and lowers the avg winner. The higher winning pct is needed to make the expectation formula a positive number.

Nope.

 
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  #182 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
Nope.

I'll put it another way. 60% LT is the not have to worry level. In the 50-55% area, the greater the dependency on higher contract levels for the net gains to provide desirable levels of income. That's the razor's edge where there can be no mental / emotional breakdowns for very long.

I won't belabor it. Everyone has to find out for themselves. I am going by personal experience here. I immediately stopped within the first year of trading (coming up on 9 yrs ago) when I came across that page by Tharp. It might be interesting though (for me) to construct a spreadsheet to simulate it.

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  #183 (permalink)
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SteveH View Post
I'll put it another way. 60% LT is the not have to worry level. In the 50-55% area, the greater the dependency on higher contract levels for the net gains to provide desirable levels of income. That's the razor's edge where there can be no mental / emotional breakdowns for very long.

I won't belabor it. Everyone has to find out for themselves. I am going by personal experience here. I immediately stopped within the first year of trading (coming up on 9 yrs ago) when I came across that page by Tharp. It might be interesting though (for me) to construct a spreadsheet to simulate it.

I genuinely appreciate your input.

I think you are right, as far as hard $/math goes. Some type of all-in, all-out approach with a good edge provides the best results. I could care less though. I think we all have to find what works for us, as emotional beings, not machines trading edges. Personally, if I can get into a position, and scale out some of it to help manage risk, it puts me at ease and allows me to truly relax and remain objective for the remainder of the position trade. Plus I can scale in and out around that position trade.

Here's how I did that on my last trade today in ES:



Sure..... you could sit there and armchair-quarterback my personal trading.... that I should have bought all-in at 1540 and exited all out at 1549... but I won't even entertain that. I embrace the uncertainty, and my scale outs will limit my upside, but they will also limit my downside when I don't get the continued trend move such as I got today. I'm good with the pros and the cons of it.

 
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  #184 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Ok, done for today. Got some other things to take care of.

All ES trading today.

First trade was looking for the long term wedge, which we gapped down below, to hold price as we pulled back to it. (Although this was in conflict to my view that the massive gap down was an overreaction to news from such a small country. Come on, this type of action is not going to spread to "real" countries.) I made it "difficult" for the market to get to my stop, since it had to breach the wedge, a resistance level, and the overnight highs. Anyways, took a full 2pt stop loss.

Second Trade By now we've broken back into the wedge, above the o/n highs, and that resistance level. So I get long on the first pullback. No real sellers in sight. Scaled out of 2/6 for +2pts, add the 2 lots back on a pullback, scale them back off again, scale out a 2nd 2-lots at the next normal rotation up for +3.25pts, and took the remainder off at a hard target (which was the RTH lows from yesterday) for +5.5pts. Now I'm flat.

Third Trade The market soared through the hard target I had for the last exit (49.00) for a 6.25pt rotation, vs the normal 3pt rotations I was trading before... but we got a nice pullback to that 49 level, and I put on a full position. At this point (time of day, as well as satisfied with the profits) I had no real risk appetite. I took off 4/6 lots for +1pt. The last two lots were trailed out for -0.5pts.

That was it for me today. I glanced over at CL a few times, and was glad not to be a part of it.

Here's the chart of the trades.


 
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  #185 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I'm having to manually update my trade analyzer data, while I get my account funded at S5. Yuck!

Notice how much better my returns are compared to the amount of risk/heat I take for these ES results vs what I was doing in CL. It's quite significant.


 
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  #186 (permalink)
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SteveH View Post

Mark Douglas was into RPS...now he's a trading psych guru.

Do you mean he's done as a trader and now became a "teacher"?

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  #187 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post

Sure..... you could sit there and armchair-quarterback my personal trading.... that I should have bought all-in at 1540 and exited all out at 1549... but I won't even entertain that. I embrace the uncertainty, and my scale outs will limit my upside, but they will also limit my downside when I don't get the continued trend move such as I got today. I'm good with the pros and the cons of it.

I think it certainly has a merit, in a sence Van Tarp is talking about long term trading with scaling out based on gradual profit targets, like every 100 ticks or so. However if first scalping scale out used for example to finance your runner/swing portion, it certainly has a merit for a system that focuses on swinging. I think it makes no sense to talk about percentages without knowing what average MFE would be and target R:R. If you use this approach and your target is 10 times the risk and you can pull it off at least 2 times out of 10, then you will be in the money.

Thanks for your journal!

PS Van Tarp also mentions with regards to scalpers, I guess little or none scalpers use scaling out, because they target high win percentage and scalping entries bear little or no sense with regards to general sentiment and taking swing trades out of them is just gambling price will go your way and won't get you stopped before it does - very low odds bet. On opposite if you are taking a swing trade with larger stop and scale out on scalping porting to finance you runner, it does make sense.

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  #188 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Notice how much better my returns are compared to the amount of risk/heat I take for these ES results vs what I was doing in CL. It's quite significant.

I love it!

Just to be clear, your "points per contract" view is not quite what it says it is--you are keeping a running total here of the average points made or loss per contract, per trade, right? Unless every trade has the same size, then the data will not be accurate (maybe it does, but one that does not will skew the data). For example, you can have Trade A be a 2 lot and make 2 handles per contract (for 4 total). Then you can have a 5 lot Trade B where you make 3 handles per contract (for 15 total). Your chart seems it would show a running average of 2.5, whereas in fact your average is 19/7 which is 2.71. Maybe I'm misinterpreting your data, but your chart type only works for ES points, not points per contract if I'm understanding what you're showing.

 
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  #189 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
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josh View Post
I love it!

Just to be clear, your "points per contract" view is not quite what it says it is--you are keeping a running total here of the average points made or loss per contract, per trade, right? Unless every trade has the same size, then the data will not be accurate (maybe it does, but one that does not will skew the data). For example, you can have Trade A be a 2 lot and make 2 handles per contract (for 4 total). Then you can have a 5 lot Trade B where you make 3 handles per contract (for 15 total). Your chart seems it would show a running average of 2.5, whereas in fact your average is 19/7 which is 2.71. Maybe I'm misinterpreting your data, but your chart type only works for ES points, not points per contract if I'm understanding what you're showing.

You're spot on Josh. Here's my rationale for why I have things the way they are.

- My plain ole' P/L numbers and equity chart will show me everything resulting from any fluctuations in size.

- My stats here, as they are calculated, show me a pure trading performance. This is in terms of.... ok.... Mr. Trader... what did you take from the market in terms of base units that the market fluctuates in... regardless of what size you traded... or anything else. It's a pure trader performance metric that can be 100% translateable to any other trader. Adjusting for other things, such as position size, muddies the waters and makes it impossible for us to look at each other's stats and measure pure performance.

This is absolutely my "soap box" issue for trading. I've preached it from day one here, but I'm certainly a minority. Most people use the method that you made 100 ticks if you traded a 100 lot and made a tick. See how that is totally crap metric of true performance? P/L can show that information, ticks should be a totally seperate, pure, animal.

Ok, I'll stop.

 
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  #190 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Two trades so far today.

First trade was a short on the breakdown of the opening swing. Stopped for -1.5

Next trade was a re-entry short once we double topped at the ONH. Once we came down to the lower end of the opening swing range, and made the feeble attempt up, it looked pretty tasty. Took a third off at +3 purely because it's the size of a normal rotation. A third off near the ONL and yesterday's VPOC for +4.25. The remainder off shortly thereafter since we'd traded into my main target of yesterday's VPOC and I expected some chop in the area.



 
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  #191 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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indextrader7 View Post
- My stats here, as they are calculated, show me a pure trading performance. This is in terms of.... ok.... Mr. Trader... what did you take from the market in terms of base units that the market fluctuates in...

Most people use the method that you made 100 ticks if you traded a 100 lot and made a tick. See how that is totally crap metric of true performance? P/L can show that information, ticks should be a totally seperate, pure, animal.

I agree 100%, but I hope my point was clear that keeping a running sum of this metric it does not really give you anything; it's the average that's important, which you do not show.

Here is how I am now keeping track of this metric, which I agree with you is the real measure of performance (this is for two weeks of trading):



The number at the bottom is net P/L divided by total contracts traded (to be more clear: Net $ / total cars / 12.50), which is the average I was talking about. So this includes all wins and losses, and takes account for commissions. This is my 'expectancy' per contract traded. The distribution graph on the right shows ticks per contract (again, net, minus commissions) gained or lost, and the percentage of total trades for each one. So there are quite a few small losses, and a handful of good winners. By the way, all the stats are taken using LIFO (flat to flat) matching algorithm, which is what most people use. It can make a significant difference in win rate, etc., but I find that the logical sequence of going from flat, to opening a trade, and then back to flat, and counting all scales as part of that same trade, the most logical for my mind to work with, so that's what I use.

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  #192 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Shorted a 1/3 position simply based on the news coming out, and from what I remember, markets don't like uncertainty. I love uncertainty.


 
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  #193 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Wait... am i accidentally trading CL again today???


 
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  #194 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

1/2 out at yesterday's RTH lows. We'll see what the rest can do.




Remainder of the position trailed out where the stop is in the picture (above the swing high). Tough to know when you're too greedy, or selling yourself short on a trade like this. Given the crazy economic environment, I chose to let it run if it would!

 
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  #195 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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indextrader7 View Post
1/2 out at overnight lows. We'll see what the rest can do.




Remainder of the position trailed out where the stop is in the picture (above the swing high). Tough to know when you're too greedy, or selling yourself short on a trade like this. Given the crazy economic environment, I chose to let it run if it would!

From experience when price hits the IB x 2 (at 1534.50 today) chances are it has reached a peak. 1534.50 is also Yesterday VWAP second standard deviation at the close.

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  #196 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
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Here's the trade analyzer data for 3-13 through 3-19:




Here's another type of chart I keep up with that shows $P/L per trade and the running total $P/L over the same period.



The first chart shows what I think of as the "behind the scenes" look at the 2nd chart.


@josh Thanks for pointing that out. Nice trading btw!! Yes, expectancy is a nice thing to know. If I run the calculation you mentioned (total PL / total lots traded / tick value) I come out to 2.2 ticks/contract traded expectancy, so you're twice as good of a trader over the period as me! ha

IMHO it's certainly something to keep up with, and I do on my main trade log spreadsheet, but I still, personally, get value of looking at the running P/L discussed earlier. It may not account for position size, but it flat out shows you... regardless of size... that if you can make that chart look good, you can make money.

If you can make any of these charts or metrics look good, you're doing just fine. Keep focusing on trading. I know I can personally get caught up in splitting hairs over stats stuff, when in the end, it's fairly irrelevant past a certain measure.

 
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  #197 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I figured I would put some hard data in for this "better risk adjusted returns" i'm seeing in ES vs CL.

Here's what I did in CL 3/8 through 3/15





Here's what I've done in ES 3/13 through 3/19




So, the two different measures for each market are first using the average ticks per contract style discussed recently on the thread here. the 2nd part for each market (with the $'s over the numbers) are in what would be dollars terms if you multiplied it by 10 or 12.5 respectively.

The realized R measures the average heat I take on trades. The P/L is simply the total P/L.

We can see that I'm achieving roughly 7 to 10 R on my CL trading, and roughly 14 to 16 R in ES. That's a 76% increase in risk adjusted performance.

*Note this is a small, small sample size to run this type of analysis on. Time will tell if it holds true, but I thought it interesting, and figured I'd journal it here.



One day I'll look back at this post and realize how dumb I was, or how smart I was for doing this stuff. I'm just a young buck trying to get better every day.

 
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  #198 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
Wait... am i accidentally trading CL again today???

lol! ES is a beast when it moves. And it traded more volume in those 15 minutes than crude has all day today. It was very weird for me when I went from seeing watching the crude tape to seeing the velocity of ES trades (literally so many prints that many of them never even make it to the screen much less your eyes), makes the CL tape look like a sloth. Of course, because there's so much more liquidity the price does not move as freely, but in terms of sheer size it's the biggest of the bigs.

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  #199 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Merritt, since you are an excel addict, I thought I would post this chart for you. It serves the same purpose as your S5T-inspired view, except a bit different perspective:



Y axis is % of account. X axis are individual trades over some period of time.

I really liked the S5T view that AttitudeTrader and Profiler have been posting, that you then adopted. Except for the fact that the black bar is black whether you closed the trade for a profit or a loss, and also it is the same width as the MAE/MFE for the trade. In short, we are looking at the low point of the trade (MAE), the high point (MFE), and the close (profit or loss). So, I decided to try to find a way to graph this clearly in excel. It turns out that excel has a HLC graph type just like trading charts, but it didn't quite give me the view I wanted. I wanted a "candlestick" view which is what the above is. So, if you or anyone else is interested, here is how I did it (using excel 07):

Create a new column chart. Add three data series, and have them be in this order: DD, MFE, and PL. Go to paint or another graphics app and create a small (mine is about 5x5 pixels) solid black image and save it.

Right click and format the DD data series; in the options make sure the Series Overlapped is 100%. Then under "Fill," select "Picture or texture fill" and choose your black image. Select Stretch, and left and right offsets of 30% each. Follow the same procedure for MFE.

For the PL series, use a Gradient fill, and select "Invert if negative." For gradient stop 1, use your up color with a stop position of 1%; for 2, use your down color with a stop of 1%; for 3, up color with 99%; for 4, down color with 99%.

To me it is very clear where my lows and highs are, and the "tails" on the low side are what I want to avoid.

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  #200 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Currently down 1.3 normal R units. Getting chopped up in the slosh while looking for directional plays.

We've really been unable to make any higher highs. (not that we've really been able to make any solid lower lows! but we have been grinding lower at this point so short is the play for me now) A swing or two more like this, and I'll start fading 2.5 to 3 point moves regardless of direction.

Here's the position right now:



ENDED UP SCRATCHING THIS TRADE FOR -3/4pt


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