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TST Combine Journal

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  #151 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Trading: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 945 since Oct 2011
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josh View Post
@lancelottrader, I agree with you. I think that some simple stats can be very telling, for example, very large MAE vs. MFE is a warning sign, as is MAE vs. closed profit. And expectancy per trade, max drawdown over a period, etc., are good numbers to know.

But those only tell part of the story, and it's up to the trader or a coach to interpret those numbers and then hypothesize the underlying issues. A day with a string of losers with small MFEs really tells you nothing about the cause of the problem. Maybe there was no problem at all, and pure bad luck took a victim.

So, I think basic stats are good, because they can alert us to risk violations and to impulsive trading (for example, short amount of time between a string of losing trades can be indicative of impulsive trading, and a consistently high MAE even on winning trades means "blow up coming soon") and the like. But beyond this, we still need to understand what we are doing, how well we are planning, how well we are executing, how well we are adapting and changing the plan when called for, how well we are understanding the context of the day and adapting accordingly, and other factors, and stats do not so easily tell us this.

I would venture a guess that most people who have some bad days and have the stats attached to it really don't know how to then approach "fixing" things. An examination of the approach heading into the day (if there even was one), and an analysis of the actual market conditions and how the trader traded those conditions would probably a good place to start. The trader may find that he was generally right in his approach, just too early much of the time, for example, which would tend to indicate a fear of missing out and therefore an approach geared towards the trader's expectations and psychology may be warranted. But if the trader was just dead wrong, and bought the tops and sold the lows, it might indicate a lack of understanding the structure of the day and the context of the market as a whole, and perhaps the approach would be to do some actual market study to see if there were early signs of the type of day it would be, where the market was trading in relation to previous days, and how the trader could have been more market savvy in general. These are just two examples, and stats alone will unfortunately not tell the whole story here.

On a different note, IT7, I'm enjoying your thread and look forward to your continued posts, keep it up!

Some excellent points. I agree 100%.
My journaling usually will include detailed descriptions of that days market conditions..what strategy I thought would work best in those conditions and the results. That way one can examine which strategies worked best under certain market conditions. The data generated by that can obviously tell you what type of conditions and market structure is most suitable for that individual trader's particular style and their overall pre -market trade plan.

Cl can have days where many entries have fast pushes that have tremendous follow through. Those are days where you can time in and ride out a multitude of runners. Other days you have times where almost every move goes a few ticks, chops back and forth ..and goes nowhere. These are the days that used to kill me . When I sense it it one of those days, I wait untill a major price point is reached before making any trades. Only then, if there is a sufficient reaction..will I take a trade.

My journals with the market condition data has helped me navigate these treacherous conditions far better than I used to.

Failure is not an option
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  #152 (permalink)
Williamsburg, VA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: Stocks
 
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Posts: 523 since Mar 2010
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indextrader7 View Post
I could be missing something, actually it would be really surprising if I wasn't missing something very obvious.

What do you guys see? What am I missing? What have I not considered?

I've been following your journal but haven't posted before. Keep up the good work!

The one caveat I would offer here is that this kind of mechanical testing you're conducting now can produce misleading results. So the 10 tick hard target performed well last month; doesn't mean it will continue to do so. Maybe next month all the moves start reversing at 9 ticks.

If you're able to stay profitable by using discretion on your exits, then that is ideal. A discretionary trader can adjust with market conditions, which will change dramatically over time (not might change, but will change).

Just a couple of thoughts. Adding the 10 tick hard target as a "diversifying" strategy might continue to work well but you can't count on that based on this small number of trades all taken during the same period in history.

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  #153 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


The perspective from the daily chart. Something to keep in mind...


 
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  #154 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Today was a great day as far as having the proper trader mindset goes. Really quite good, but not perfect.

After checking the news today, I got the idea to set a loop timer to be a reminder to bring me back to where my mind should be, and read through important mental beliefs and such that I have written out (all Mark Douglas stuff).

I set it to go off every half hour. It's a free tool I found at Loop Countdown - Repeating Timer - Loop Timer if anyone is interested.

7:00 to 7:22 - I did notice a bit of frustration felt due to the fact that the market was absolutely not moving. I noted this feeling, and refocused.

7:48 Long taken. Stopped out for full loss. (-9)

*In between trades (looking for next edge) I noticed, "I'm fully aware of my desires to anticipate signals today." This is a good thing for me to notice myself thinking about.

8:10 Long taken. Scaled out 2/4 (+10). Market reverses very sharply and takes out my stop on 2nd half (-14).

*the market is telling me something by that type of activity.

8:26 Short. Market flatlines. I stay in the trade doing nothing for nearly half an hour. Full stop hit (-11)

9:05 Short. Scaled out 2/4 (+10), Another lot at (+18), and the final lot at (+30).

9:33 Long. Full exit, given transition period in trend (+12)

10:01 Long. " " " " (+12)

10:37 Long. " " (+11)

10:55 Long " " (+7.5)

Done for the day. Nice job of trade execution and self awareness.

Here are the trades:






 
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  #155 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Hey guys, I'm trying to find what the pattern in CL price action has been over the past six trading days from 11:30CST to pit close at 13:30CST..... I could really use a sharp eye to help me see if there is any similarities... I've highlighted the time of day with a rectangle on each day's chart...

March 4th:



March 5th:


March 6th:


March 7th:


March 8th:


Today, March 11th:


Let's see if I mess it up by calling it out!

 
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  #156 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart
Broker: DDT/Rithmic
Trading: TF/ZN/CL
 
WarEagle's Avatar
 
Posts: 30 since Apr 2010
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Amazing how it sells off right at the end of those periods. Uncanny really.


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  #157 (permalink)
PTA, Gauteng
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Self built + Sierra + TWS
Trading: Stocks and Options
 
DarkPoolTrading's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,036 since May 2012
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Hey it7,

Not sure if the S5 platform shows your entries and exits, but if it's not too much of a mission could you please post your charts showing your entries/exits as well as your trade analyzer results. It would help those of us learning from your journey to see the whole picture.

Nevermind if it's a hassle.

Many thanks.

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  #158 (permalink)
denver, colorado
 
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Platform: NT
Trading: ZS
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Today was a great day as far as having the proper trader mindset goes. Really quite good, but not perfect.

After checking the news today, I got the idea to set a loop timer to be a reminder to bring me back to where my mind should be, and read through important mental beliefs and such that I have written out (all Mark Douglas stuff).

There is a program I use that is free on the web called "freebienotes" - it allows me to create a series of pop-up notes with customizable messages that pop up onto my screen at pre-set times of the day. E.g., I have a note that come up before the open to remind me to create a plan for the open based on different possibilities. I also have a reminder around 10 am mst that reminds me we are entering a time of day that is often choppy and to be careful. I have maybe 10 popups that come up throughout the day reminding me of technical and mental aspects of my trading plan.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #159 (permalink)
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, StrategyRunner
Trading: ES,EUR/USD,Oil
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Hey guys, I'm trying to find what the pattern in CL price action has been over the past six trading days from 11:30CST to pit close at 13:30CST..... I could really use a sharp eye to help me see if there is any similarities... I've highlighted the time of day with a rectangle on each day's chart...

Thanks indextrader....I is gonna be so much rich now

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  #160 (permalink)
Pittsburgh PA
 
 
Posts: 14 since Feb 2013
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Have you started your combine...


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