Ok this will be good for me to start a journal. Reading other peoples experiences really helps me to understand we all at some point go through similar experiences. I enjoy very much seeing other people trade successfully just as much as my own successful trades. And maybe someone can get something out of my trading and throw in some well needed suggestions, I know once I describe what Iím doing there will indeed be some suggestions, but bear with me for at least a couple trades before cutting my head off. I trade oil (one contract) and the only system, if you even want to call it a system that is relying on each day retracing a % up or down the previous dayís movement. I know it sounds crazy, but if you can stomach the draw down has been working well for me. And rather than saying exactly what well means will try to do this in a public forum. So what Iím going to do is look at the previous dayís action and try to get 30 ticks out the next day. Usually if itís an up day I will sell short the follow and a down day buy the following looking for a small retracement, this isnít always the case depending on gaps on the 6pm open but the majority follow this. As well Iím not using stops and I have never been able to use them with any success, I always get stopped out even when I place it 100 ticks away. Something else I hope posting this it will force me to stick with my initial trade because I canít even count how many times that I set my initial 30 tick sell/buy to exit and then look at the action over night and sell when Iím up 200.00, and if I kept my initial target price it would have been reached.
Some of the rules which I feel silly even calling them rules because they are pretty open and dare I say goes by feel, but what I would like to stick to.
ē Place a set sell/buy 30 ticks away from entry point. The entry is not always on the 6pm open, if Iím planning on going short and the market if drifting up Iíll get in usually before 10pm and vise versa if Iím planning on going long. Or I may not enter at all if the previous open was close to the close. The exit may not be the following day.
ē Iíll try to update this when I enter real time and the exit in the evening if it was reached or not that day.
Just went long at 18:11 at 95.80 and set my sell at 96.10.
The following user says Thank You to jeffomski for this post:
Question, since you run without stops, what is your plan to exit a position if your target is never reached? I realize the probabilities of it hitting your target but what does a loosing trade look like? Just curious and keep up the journal!
That is indeed a great question and wish I had a set in stone answer. The longest a trade lasted for me trading this way was three days when I sold when I was up a small amount, but again it hit my initial target later in the day if I had held longer. But I was down 1700 at one point which was brutal. Most of the times the losses are small under 300, and it’s because I watch it throughout the night and get squirrely and sell too soon. I don’t mean to imply that all would have been winners, some I was happy to get out early. I really apologize for not have exact numbers and dates for these trades I could dig them up if someone wants to see them, because I have about 20 canceled trades and night moving my sell point around getting nervous "and not sleeping".
Not today’s trade however I stuck to my guns, right or wrong.
Today as an example if I used an 80 tick stop I would have been out with a loss. I don’t know how to really get around this. I have tried trailing stops with some success but get stopped out before the target; I would have been today for sure if I used a trailing stop. I have a couple simple strategies that buy when the previous day was down and sell when the previous was an up day, and the times I get in seems to have a big impact. I would love some suggestions on how I could take advantage of a daily retracement trade and be somewhat protected and not wipe out a weeks success with one bad trade. I know the first rule, or is it the second rule is to have a set trading plan and stick with it, that is something I'm failing at.
I go off of the 6:00pm open, as long as the open isn't far into the body of the previous day’s movement and doesn’t gap up I will take the trade, and minus days the inventory reports are due. It seems to move irrationally enough without that to make it worse. For the exits I just picked what looks to be conservative, what I think the price will move. Yep I know sounds horrible .. hahahah
Last edited by jeffomski; February 11th, 2013 at 07:52 PM.
Broker/Data: Thinkor Swim for Charts an Infinity Futures for Trading Dom
Favorite Futures: Oil
Posts: 48 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 448 given,
I wish you luck with this system I really do but and this is a big but please be careful I would hate to see you lose your whole account and trading without stops or some max amount you can afford to lose is very dangerious at least put a stop in there some where. If war breaks out somewhere and this things takes off you could be in big trouble in a flash.