I went down the path this thread describes and did not find it to be fruitful over periods of time. I saw times when this method was very good and other times when it was absolutely horrible. Over time it was pretty bad. I hope you all find something useful in this approach but I didn't at least as a stand alone. There may be potential to use this approach to define the trend and then watch price action to time an entry and exit.
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Here's one of those horrible days. Also included is a strategy that I wrote in about 10 minutes so you can see for yourself what I was talking about. The strategy has session times as parameters that are 800-1400 central time. Change them to suit your timezone. Also the strategy is a stop and reverse, no stop and no target. There are 2 possible exits for open positions after your end time; exits on close or when a signal in the opposite direction is encountered. Pretty simple strategy but demonstrates what I ran into when I studied this before. Also, I had all kinds of money management stuff and filters and all that crap we fall prey to. None of it worked very well. This strategy can be run in the strategy analyzer and because entries are placed on the next bar's open price, I set a stop order 1 tick above/below the trigger bar. That way you will see more realistic results.
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@MWinfrey
either I or you didn't interpret his strategy correctly. On the same chart I see only 1 loss maybe. The only strategy in used is buy/sell on the pull back. I know nothing about strategy coding so this is how it looks on the same chart.
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Ok thanks, I use Sierra so I can only the Sierra settings for the Flex Renko bars. With the settings I use for index like YM the range around 45 ticks. Sierra has an option new bar then exceded and I use that. It makes it stay in the same trend longer. I think it is bettar to stay in the same trend for a while and not change for every little move. If up trend before US day session so wait for a pullback bar down to the 40-60 % area and get in and hope for the best. If you like I could post my YM chart for today and we could talk about it. Regards Outlander
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Ok thanks I will post my charts and yours with some markings on. You will se that my charts are not the same as yours. Must be some differnce how the bars are calculated in Ninja compared with Sierra. I have removed my stuff in the price area to get a cleaner look when explaining. You can look at it and we could talk about it. Regards Outlander
yes, they are different, this is just my attempt to have NT chart kind of looks like SC chart. The entry will not be the same, the exit will not be the same, the target will not be the same. Only one thing/idea is in common, trade on the pullback, that's it.
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each one of those big 16 tick bars is a retrace entry as well. when each one of those bars is forming you don't know whether price is going 16 ticks or 8. so, as i mentioned there are valid entries on each of those 16 tick bars or are you doing something to exclude them?
yes i understand and that's my point. let's say you are in an uptrend and you get a long retrace entry. that bar could keep retracing to form a short signal bar instead of continuing long.
logically and statistically, we know those days happen. Doesn't mean we have to like them
Thx for sharing that side as well
Btw, @Big Mike is there any other chance of renaming the "" Smilie? I like using it but always feel like an a$$ because it is called sarcastic. I'm no stranger to sarcasm, it's just rarely applicable in my futures.io (formerly BMT) posts. I know it's a longshot, but figured it was worth a shot
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. ~ Seneca
I think it might be better to use a setting so the trend dont changes to "much" My YM charts went in short mode after 9 am cet and stayd in that mode until 14:45 cet. I think it is better it stays "to long" in the same trend when "to short" . But as you know I dont know how to set bars in Ninja. So only my humble opinion
Regards Outlander
@Outlander : The lines you have at the top and bottom and in between, do you calculate them using a spreadsheet and then display them onto the chart or are you using one of the available studies/indicators to do this?
I just saw you question and you have got an correct answer. The sheet is the best part of Sierra and you can use it for a lot of things. Regards Outlander
Havent gotten around to doing stuff with the spreadsheet yet, right now i have added the spreadsheet study into the studies, and am looking at the spreadsheet.
I tried entering the formula into the K and L cell but nothing is appearing.. any suggestions?
EDIT:
Nevermind it seems to be working somewhat, able to display something but its offset. Need to check the input data
EDIT2: Nevermind seems to be working now partially although i am unhappy with the way the lines are displayed, time to fiddle around
Well since you were kind enough (also huge thank you to @MWinfrey and @lemons )to provide an outline and the "general" concept to establish ones own methodology I think i should reply in a little bit more detail.
I have done several rounds of testing, backtesting, hypothesizing and am still trying to hammer out some issues, but so far I am liking the results.
My general trading style relies heavily on scalping. Specifically i use Orderflow techniques (footprint bars with finetuned filtration techniques and on higher timeframes i look at the volume profile), and mainly at the core is 1-Minute timeframe Priceaction and i have recently started to enjoy tickcharts for certain instruments (6E especially).
My entries on the 6E usually have a 3 Tick stop loss and a 3-5 tick takeprofit. I generally try to get in and out of a position as fast as possible. Sometimes limit orders will not be executed so i have to push in a market order and generally am forced to enter at market.
One of the biggest issues I've had so far is an Exit strategy. Every good trading strategy needs 3 components really:
1) Entry Rules 2) Moneymanagement 3) Exit Rules.
I used to trade on higher level timeframes so my risk reward was usually 1:3 or higher for every trade. Now that i have become more immersed into scalping my focus has shifted to reducing risk by minimizing the stoploss but i never really found a complementary technique for an exit strategy. Which is why while my win/loss ratio is so high ( 87% right now) I am still suffering because at short timeframes it is nearly impossible to do a lot of frequency in your trading while maintaining a risk reward ratio above 1:1 ..
This is where this little gem of a thread comes in. As you so aptly put it there are 2 main distinctons for entries based on this strategy of yours:
1) You enter after the "Signal bar" or what is refered to as a buy/sell stop on your charts. The issue with this becomes clear and apparent very fast, it is difficult for smaller timeframes because your odds of being stopped out are relatively high, if you use larger timeframes it tends to work very well and for some reason based on the construction of the charts there does not seem to be a "amplificatory" effect in terms of chartsize, i.e a 40 tick chart can still display valuable information if you are basing your trades on a 10 tick chart. Which is partially what makes this so good, because since my entries are usually at the low or the middle of the "signal bar" all i have to do instead of exiting the trade is watch how it unfolds into a beautiful scalp-2-swing setup/position.
2) You enter at a certain retracement levels as you have demonstrated, essentially buying the pullbacks of a larger up or downtrend. Now this in itself is great as long as your level is set reasonably, but my biggest concern is that you will have to accept a reasonable "Punishment" for your stops, because they have to be decently wide, and for somebody who uses small stop sizes such as i do this simply does not become acceptable. Now alternatively you can use this as a confirmation for an entry based on your already existing strategy.. may this be priceaction, fibonacci or some other set of rules, either way this is an interessting tool but to some extent is basically a different visualization of priceaction.
Either way:
This is a brilliant tool for scalpers to help them decide on whether to stay in a position or simply scalp out as usual. Still working on refining the settings, will share my insights once i have some more "conclusive" views based on more than 48 hours + backtesting.
Quite frankly this has also inspired me to write what i believe to be a potentially very powerful pseudo-code/algorithm to automate a strategy based on Orderflow + Priceaction. Although i am very convinced that there is a very fine balance/distinction regarding subtelties of market price movements that are too hard/complex to finetune into an automated trading system. Although i think ill start getting on that horse now.
Thats my view for now, will share what i find and post some results and ideas over the coming weeks/days
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Thanks for you reply. It seems to me that my systems short trades works better than the long ones. Have you noticed the same with your system? Regards Outlander
Yes and no, Smaller timeframes seem to favour bearish action from what i can see. But on the larger timeframes the issue "equals" itself out.
As you can see the long uptrend channels are somewhat very stable for longterm swing positions... and if you get it right you are in for basically one HELL of a profit day basically from what i have written down in my notebook (from backtesting) the ratio seems to be a minimum of 4:1 on trend days.
On the smaller timeframes because of those "collision" occasions i have highlighted in red your biggest obstacle becomes navigating this. Thankfully my entries are not dependant on this but it becomes a pain if you are using this as an entry strategy on smaller timeframes.. simply too many fakeouts, although i assume that in the overall scale for the day the wins will outweigh the rewards.
I still have to take a look at this on much higher timeframes, what are you using as settings for the 6E EURUSD Future?
I have found Nasdaq to react very positively both short and longterm. Its very interessting and works superflous with my orderflow entry strategy/system. Nasdaq may just become my new favourite instrument because of how well the two work together. I will try doodling around some more with other stuff including a more deeper look at your retracement levels.
The nice thing that i figure is if that if you are struck in a ridiculous trendchannel or uptrend, then this system provides you with very easy points to enter into the swingmove while it lasts.
But overall i have noticed that on certain timeframes (mostly medium-high) the possibility of a retracecandle becoming statistically much more likely. I would have to forcefeed this into a data analysis program to find out for sure but a simple glance is usually more than enough for a first impression. So the advantage of having your retrace lines is definitely a good thing.
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Thanks for your swift reply. For the EC something like 30-29-28, YM might 40-39-38, More volitile futures like the DAX needs at least 50-49-48. As you can see all settings uses 1 tick less for the mid setting and 2 tick less for the last setting. If using that order you get the trend channel look as you can se in all my chart posted. I think it better with to "large" setting then to "small" settings. It prevent the "trend" to chop. The break out trades then the trend changes workes best in more volite futures. The stop dont have to be that large as the trades that works seems to have a smaller draw down than the loosing ones. If no entry on a trend change a pullback entry might work. To not catch a falling knife I use a stopentry 4-5 tick from the High/Low of the pullback against the trend. Regards Outlander
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Testing those settings now, let me show you one of the entries i have been working.
So my normal systme provides me with a relatively precise entry point with a stop of 3 ticks. Now i would normally scalp out for +5 or 6 ticks as indicated on the chart1, but as you can see on chart 2 at the same time we had a signal bar forming. While i agree that if you look at the top left part of the lower left corner there could have been fakeouts/spikes it generally seems to be the case that these signal upmoves will provide at least 4-5 more ticks in your direction. On the larger timeframes (right side of picture 2) you can see the signal bar forming in the mean time. Now once those would have closed you would have had essentially a golden ticket to simply "ride the trend". Essentially taking 3x more in terms of profit than you regularly would.
So this is one of the applications I am currently developing for my exit strategies using flexrenko.
I generally like the idea of using your type of entry system but i have yet to discover more "data" for the higher timeframes. As of yet i am unsatisfied with the settings, each of them is peculiar in its own way and has advantages and disadvantages. 10-9-8 is relatively interesting and 13-12-11 seems to work out nicely for longer moves and displays the same data as the 10-9-8 but reducing the "noise".
on the other hand 5-4-3 is too noisy yet provides a cleaner view for certain entries whereas 4-3-2 is generally much much much more precise but if you dont have an entry system you are going to get suckerpunched by the "whipsaws" and countermovements.
The charts are interessting that way, as i said i will definitely check out your settings for the higher timeframes, i am very interested in the concept of entering limit orders on retracements and how to minimize stops, or if im just going to go with the smaller timeframes. I wanted to ask you, have you tried playing around with geometry and flexrenkos? I.E trendlines or andrews pitchfork or fibonacci (expansion, projection, retracement etc ?)
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Not exactly FlexRenko, but these "renko" bars have some nice, profitable swings... gotta just keep 'riding the waves' and reversing at all the trend changes in this GC market....
H
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Thanks that line of yours seems to do well. I have not tested I.E trendlines or andrews pitchfork or fibonacci (expansion, projection, retracement. But I use 50% area for entrys on a pullback. The first 1 I dont know what it is. (I am from Sweden) I know Andrews Pitchfork and Fibbonacci. I will look at it and see if I can come up with something. Regards Outlander
So far im quite happy, my exit efficiency has gone up dramatically and correlates with my overall entry efficiency now. Also its a neat reward you can reap for trading only 1 contract, very rewarding. i wish every day was like this.
Results on FGBL Future and Nasdaq are even more impressive actually than on 6E. This tool is definitely a goldmine when it comes to exit strategies and holding trades. Thanks for sharing, i still feel the need to make some additional tweaks to it before beginning on working on an automated system and using this as exit criteria, but i need to look a bit deeper into sierracharts coding mechanisms for that.
Will update once i have more findings.
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Instead of all in/all out on one contract, have you thought of trading TWO contracts and reversing with THREE contracts each time and trailing the entry stop up to reverse at trend change, but in the meantime, covering one of the two contracts at 8-10 ticks when that profit is available on the one contract, thus always trailing ONE at all times?
Theoretically that is doable although on live i will not be able to do this because of my account size, its simply too high risk for me. If somebody was willing to step up to the plate and say "Here have 130000 USD and do this, you can have 25% of the profits" then sure ill go ahead and do that
This whole thing is complex because there are several factors and each has a key role which can make or break the system on several specific days of trading. A system here needs to be universally applicable and make sure that instead of getting out with a loss because a day was extremely spiky or price was acting highly erratic it simply reduces your profit for that day by an acceptable margin relative to the average trading day winnings.
And still in my humble opinion the most important thing when devising a system that is based on entries with flexrenkos instead of focusing on exits your primary concern would be to enter during a signalbar with a good proportion rather than it happening afterwards, thus allowing you to do stuff like trailing because otherwise a reverse signalbar is going to effectively cut your profits by 2/3 some of the time.
Nice results, i see we are getting similar results, with your holding strategy being clearly superior because of the larger gains on the profitable trades. Are you using the 40 tick settings on the 6E future here?
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As this is a test I think it is better to use a large target. So you can look at the numbers and decide later how much that you think you can go for in real trading
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CL with some even better action... a week of green days with this method in CL, GC, Yen... trading both directions, reversing, and covering partials with runners on board each way... almost ready 2 go live..... this shouldn't be traded ALL day, though, in my opinion..... have been logging best times for each market, as each one is different.
H
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I have on either two or three.. if three, then I cover two at +8 if available. If two, then I cover one at +8 if available. So to open the trade, I place a buy stop at the opposite end of the current direction. The "renko" bars are 8 ticks wide (9 for GC) so the length top to bottom is 16 ticks (my initial stop when entering either direction). As stated above, one or two is covered for +8 and a reversal order is placed at the opposite end to catch a trend change. So as soon as the first order is filled for however many are on, then the "reversal" order is placed at the same spot for the same amount of contracts to catch a trend reversal.
I.E., if two are on, then as soon as the initial trade is filled, then an opposite stop entry order is placed for four contracts at the opposite end. If the scale-out order is filled, then that becomes three contracts and the reversal entry price is trailed at +/- 16 ticks on the opposite end. I have other indicators that help me determine if a good trend is established so it's discretionary that way -- i.e., I'll hold off placing a trend-change order and ride the trend, depending, but for the most part, it's been profitable for the last week just "riding all the waves."
Hope this explains the entry criteria
H
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Well.. looks good to me, testing complete on my behalf, its decent results, filtered out the bad trading stuff as much as i could. 6E is still very dodgy in some aspects and is not as ideally suited as the Russel Future and NQ futures when it comes to providing multiple entry scalp opportunities within a span of 1 Hour.
I will recap some of those trades on the 6E today and make some minor adjustments, but i will be bringing this system live in a mechanical sense tommorow, if it pans out, automation is next.
Anyone getting good results for scalping on 6E applying this strategy?
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Not bad for 20 Minutes of work, there are certain settings that work ridiculously well for GC scalping but the risk is so high and you are basically forced to use buy-stop and sell-stop entries and work with them fast, also right now the spread was ridiculously stupid but entertaining nonetheless.
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Excellent input @Amnesia, thanks for sharing. Looking forward to your updated findings.
Though I'm sure we are using different techniques & settings, I've also found similar raw results: GC looks like a prime market and 6E can be a challenge.
I'm using 30-29-28 settings for 6E and here is a quick test run for today:
Since I'm still early into testing, trade management settings are quite loose. The trades highlighted in yellow are trades that would not have been allowed to double-back on themselves if traded live. The last trade probably wouldn't have been taken because of time of day.
Also, thank you @Outlander for letting us piggyback some idea sharing onto your thread If it's too distracting, just let us know and we can start a separate thread.
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. ~ Seneca
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Yeah, let's just say GC is higher risk with this method. That said, I've had 7 out of the last 7 trading days profitable trading TWO contracts, covering the 1 at 8 ticks profit and reversing... and NOT trading all day; but just trading an hour or so. Today and Friday were incredibly risky trading this method, but profitable nonetheless...using other indicators for trend determination increases the profit potential by NOT reversing at certain locations but instead trailing the profit on the remaining contract(s).
Hap
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Thanks to all of your post on this thread. Would be best if we keept this Renko discussion on this thread. That was my intention from the start of the thread. Only glad if any of my post are off any use. I have been looking at numbers bars lately and if they are of any use with FlexRenko. If using setings like 30-29-28 and larger the pullback bars can be quite large without the trend changes. If using numbers bars and have the pullback column on might pin point the entry on the pullback. I have never used numbers bars in the past so any feedback in this matter would be nice. Regards Outlander
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Testing the gold strategy on a free 2 week topsteptrader account today so it seems to be working rather nicely, a lot of 20-40 second trades and a couple of trades that were held for much longer.
Interessting results, 12K profit on a 150K simulated trading account for basically 2-3 hours of work. I am really happy with how Gold is turning out at the moment.
6E is simply a fucking disaster at times, the smaller timeframes will fuck you over on buy/sell stop entries because of the excessive risk of a reversal signal bar literally popping up 3-4 candles later. As for the buyback(retrace) entries.. they are fine sometimes but still a high risk and running some simple spreadsheet calculations you will end up being highly unfavourably.
So as it stands right now anything but the higher tickrange charts on 6e seem not to be doable, simply because of the lack of volatility. I am reverting back to my method of entries and exits for scalping the 6e for now since its much more accurate, i am keeping a 30-29-28 chart open for now in case i catch a trend and to keep me inside the move.
I am liking the results i am getting on the Equity derivatives though (especially Russel). Have not tested other commodities other than GC for now because of the implied volatility.
Going live Tommorow @ US session once i have a buffer in the morning.
@Hapster
Have you taken it live yet?
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Amount of profit is not the best way to measure.
Post your MAE and MFE per trade and examine risk compared to return. If your profit is consistently above 1R per trade and your position sizing is such that no single trade exceeds roughly 2% of your funds, you are doing well.
There is obviously no disagreement about this on my behalf, the other screenshots i have posted have the sierraversion of Entry Efficiency and Exit Efficiency on them. I would post the information but the platform topstep provides does not really hand out that information.
As for the 1R and the % size of account. for this account the risk per trade was below 0.5% per trade with 6 exceptions. The trades did not necessarily have a 1R on them, most of the time it was well above that but in my live system i sometimes dont get to 1R simply because if you are scalping for 3-4 ticks profit and your stop is about 3-6 ticks you have to compensate with a very high accuracy rate, which for me is about 80-90% depending on the instrument and varies on a month to month basis.
I would agree with you though that for a system that i want to automate these things need to be "in order" or "in place" before you can deploy it efficiently, but right now i am still working on these details.
Shows the right time twice a day. DAX so far worked ok. As most of the time the shorts doing better than the long trades. Entry are on pullbacks but not with a fixed stop entry 4 ticks from H/L. It uses a rolling entry and the larger the pullback the closer from H/L the entry stops gets. Regards Outlander
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Dax went mad just after cash open but gold was the real mover. My system did not work at all in gold as it did in DAX. I noticed gaps of 18 ticks in gold. It was not trade able as I look at it. But days like this happens once in a while and I have seen much more volatile days than today. Not so much to do about as long as the trading works in more normal days. Regards Outlander
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Gold is working fine for me to be honest, infact it is one of the most reliable contracts to trade simply because of the volatility in the market right now and generally. If someone gave me a 50000$ account and said "Here, do whatever you want" the potential rate of return would be quite insane.
Trades were executed keeping a 500$ hard-stop per trade in mind on a 150K simulated account btw.
I am having problems executing nasdaq right now/today simply because of the massive move downwards, i had by my count about 40 good signals today out of which 31 would have been very profitable even if i only used a fixed takeprofit instead of using seperate exit criteria. Problem is i thought i saw something new today and got completely focused on that instead.
Quite a bummer really. Hopefully tommorow is going to be a little bit more calm but looking at the H1 chart it is quite.. insane.
well I have used around 40 to 50 in the past but decided that to "much" is better then to "little" so now using 69-68-67 settings. It trades less and don't trend change so often. The system is limit to max 2 trades per bar. I want it to trade as little as possible. You only need 1 good trade per day. I have been running it all day for testing it. But then going live I will limit the trading time to the first 3 hours after Dax Cash opens but it will manage any open trades after the stop time. It also have the option to let it start again after US day sessions starts and until Dax cash closes. It can also limit the number of long and short trades,the total trades and the net P/L. Regards Outlander
Looking at the chart right now on Dax, could you elaborate whether you are long or short on dax? (Im not quite used to using larger timeframes normally and especially with this. Perhaps a chart to show the demo trades and how you perceive it to move would "enhance the discussion" here.
I will share my thoughts aswell since i dont actively trade the dax anymore so im neutral in this regard
DAX has been in short mode since am 6:30 est. System flat at the moment but is trying for short but not hit the rolling sell stop yet. I will post chart later with the first trades it takes after US open. Regards Outlander
Trading one contract only.. the yellow marked ones are still causing headaches and problems. I wanted to start out doing the simulation with 2 contracts today, but ended up doing just 1 contract.
Still missing something, most of my entries are still based on my criteria, smaller timeframes are still too buggy =/
I do not want to have a drawdown per NQ contract greater than 2 points ( 8 ticks ), but it simply seems impossible at times or in certain circumstances to avoid the whipsaw. Which is what i am trying to eliminate
Well its not so much about news really, just did some analysis over the weekend and i understand the "failure" trades now, about a third of them were entered too late (@market), and the otherones were missrepresentation of signals.
DAX the first 30 min after cash open. This chart is what I used in the past but have updated it with the Flex bars. In auto it uses the swings to set the trend.The attached chart is in auto trend mode. But I prefer to set the trend manually after looking at all the green averages(Fishnet). It is impossible to code the trend using the Fishnet.It is quite fast and uses the H/L swings for trailing the stop. Regards Outlander
For those of you who use UniRenko, you might be interested in this indicator that I wrote several months ago that works well to replicate the UniRenko levels on any chart to include a UniRenko chart. Don't know if it has any utility at all but thought I'd share it in case it is.
For example, let's say you are using UniRenko T1R40O1. You put this indicator on that chart and you will see three levels, High, Mid, and Low.
Now taking that further, you can put it on any chart to show you the UniRenko levels without dividing your focus.
You can see in this picture that the levels on this 4 tick range chart are the same as they are on the UniRenko.
I think this indicator allows you the opportunity to view what's going on inside the UniRenko bar without having to look directly at it all the time.
Also, I've read in this thread that some use a longer UniRenko for trend with a shorter UniRenko for trading. This picture shows a RangeChannel of 20 on a UniRenko 10.
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I was able to get the average trade drawdown down to 27,12$ per contract, other than one trade where i executed 2 contracts short in quick succession all of these trades were made with 1 contract only, trading from signal to signal, zone to zone.
I have to admit I am satisfied at this, im a little bit unsatisfied about the 63.64% win/loss ratio, my standard one is at about 80-90%, so there is definitely something interessting going on here. Additionally i tried letting certain trades run when the PA and Orderflow suggested to stay within a trade and using flexrenkos as additional guidance. But in some cases i.e the losing trades this was not doable. I'm not quite sure what to make of it, 33 trades with 1 contract each making a total profit of 560 (or 1120 when using 2 contracts as i would on live) seems like a fair deal system wise. I will need to analyse the results a bit more,will be online to answer questions should they arise.
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