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The Narrow Road ...to consistent profits


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The Narrow Road ...to consistent profits

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  #11 (permalink)
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Hi @podski,

How do I know it is range trading?


I consider it as range trading as long as the price action is inside yesterdays VA in which I use amongst others, the VAL, VAH + POC in reference to support and resistance zones. Maybe that´s an approach you can consider if you want. Good trading,

Abde

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  #12 (permalink)
Belgium
 
Experience: Intermediate
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@Abde

Do you think that you could post a quick snapshot of what you mean ... so that I could then setup something on my own chart and follow up your idea ?

I will then try to pick out the buy/sell signals as I see them for your comment.

tks

podski

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  #13 (permalink)
Germany
 
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podski View Post
@Abde

Do you think that you could post a quick snapshot of what you mean ... so that I could then setup something on my own chart and follow up your idea ?

I will then try to pick out the buy/sell signals as I see them for your comment.

tks

podski

@podski

attached is a 30 minute chart from which I take my Value Area numbers. The VA is the green shaded zone respectively to the left, is the zone from the prior day. In general as long as the price action stays within the zone from the prior day, it´s range trading till it breaks out of it. If the breakout is to the upside, the VAH becomes support and if to the downside, the VAL becomes resistance. Hope it helps.

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  #14 (permalink)
Belgium
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Hi Everyone,

A challenging day today for me. It is one of those days that you look back at on a 5 Min FDAX chart and think that your blind uncle Billy (blinded by vodka) could have traded better than you did.

Sometimes during days like this I am reminded of some of the speeches I have seen from the great and the good. In this case I was thinking about Linda Raschke today. Now, don't get me wrong. I don't know Linda Raschke - I've never seen her and probably never will but .... loads of people talk about her and indeed she has a nice sort of broadcastery voice in an American kind of way.

Anyway - the speech I was thinking about today was this one. Click Here

In the vid, Linda talks about classical indicators and also talks about the ability to be able to forget your last trade and move on to the next one. I guess it will come with practice but for now it seems like I'm strangling those trades with my bare hands. That skill would have been useful today and I would have concentrated better.

Day Summary:

Missed Trades:
I missed some real sitters. I didn't chase them and they even had a nice pullback or two that I traded well. My entries were good (when I made them).

Auto Break Even Saga:
The ABE didn't save my backside today. It cost it. It is definitely on the way out. Let's see how long it lasts. If I get rid of it I will want to be sure that I'm reading the price action well so that I don't get drilled. However ... today ... one of my nicely patient pullback trades got taken out on the ABE. If I had let it run ... we are talking > 100 ticks. I won't say any more in case I upset you.

I had a wee chat with the @PandaWarrior yesterday and he mentioned again the false security that an Auto Trail gives.

I'll sleep on it but it's not long for this world.

Trades List:
T1: 12:50 - ABE Hit
T2: 13:15 - ABE Hit -...oh goodness ... it really took off after this ... MFE ++
Lunch Break - all hell breaks loose. Not able to join / fear of chasing the trade
T3: 14:26 - Stop filled / looked like a value zone pull back but clearly too far gone in the trend. I think that this was an impatient trade. Waiting for a deeper pullback.
T4: 14:40 - Similar pullback trade to T3 - Went to + 6 points but started to pull back to ABE - manual bail.
T5: 14:42 - Same space entry - Auto Trail got hit with one position 10 points target got hit with the runner.

Chart Update:
I'm trying to simplify the visuals a little while keeping the info the same. I had been scratching my head for a long time about a moving average issue that I was having. The Berlin Fox ( aka @Fat Tails) together with @Big Mike and @MWinfrey got it sorted for me. Issue to Answer in minutes. Click Here.

All this for 50 bucks ... makes me feel like a thief !


Trade well everyone !

podski

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  #15 (permalink)
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I don't know what all the dots are on the chart but you have the structure marked out pretty well. I think thats all you really need but even with all the dots, I think its still pretty clear. I took the liberty of marking on your chart my trail stop ideas.....hope it helps and if not, then disregard.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #16 (permalink)
Belgium
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 388 since Sep 2012
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Many thanks @PandaWarrior,

I was showing someone your markup yesterday evening (in answer to the question "What do you do all day?") and they thought that it made a lot of sense.

My first reaction was:
"It's easy for a warrior to say that ... !"
My second reaction was:
"Of course he is right ... it's the Al B method, bamboo style ... the I don't care , let it run .... method".
My third ... and current reaction is:
"Think like a warrior, act like a warrior ... and you will be a warrior!"


podski

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  #17 (permalink)
Belgium
 
Experience: Intermediate
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podski's Avatar
 
Posts: 388 since Sep 2012
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Hello All,

No trades today.

Despite the instructions on BM's signature to stop changing stuff - I spent the day doing just that.

Minor adjustments only but they totally threw my eye off and I was unsure about everything.

Anyway - now my chart is a little updated. Screenshot attached.

Moving Averages:
Fast = SMA(4)
Slow = SMA(21)
Yellow Dots:
They are a snapshot of the fast SMA(4) at the time of the open of the bar. Why do I do this ?
I like to enter a trade when the price opens at the SMA(4). Sometimes I miss it or sometimes I just ignore it because I think that the momentum is in fact going the wrong way and there will be a climatic reversal (it very very rarely happens but I think its going to happen all the time?!?).

Anyway - those yellow dots are where the SMA was when the bar opened.

I can now look back at a chart at the end of the day and see where the open of the bar was at or close to the SMA and what else was happening at that time in terms of the trend, the support and resistance etc.

Other Indicators:
fsAuctionBars
fsZeroLagOscillator
anaBetterVolume
-----------------

Yesterday the @PandaWarrior marked up my chart.

Someone else on futures.io (formerly BMT) has a signature that says something like "if you keep doing the same thing you keep getting the same results". So much of today and indeed tomorrow will be spent thinking about a trading plan update.

I am doing this journal to break out of a rut, impose discipline and get feedback. In just a few days all of that has happend. In general I know that my entries are getting better and better but my exits are still.

Taking a 1000 dollar risk for a 200 dollar win is wrong on many levels and the fact is that is what my previous trades look like.

My new journal uses the futures.io (formerly BMT) journal format and it is far superior to the other notes I was keeping. It is telling me a couple of things need to change.
a. I need to get rid of that ABE somehow. It knocks me out of very good trades and makes my hands weak.
b. the instrument that I am trading has big moves - for the most part they are with the trend. My trading philosophy needs to be more based on getting confidently in position for the rocket to take off and not on taking scalper money during swing moves.
No trades from me tomorrow either I think.

Trade well everyone!

podski

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  #18 (permalink)
Belgium
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 388 since Sep 2012
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Hi Everyone,

Well - after a long weekend of contemplation, meditation and a little bit of sweating I have a few things to report.

1. Books
I buy (and read) quite a lot of books. The latest additions to the library are

a. The Hour Between Dog and Wolf - John M. Coates
b. Mentaltraining für den erfolgreichen Day-Trader - Christoph Wahlen

The Hour between Dog and Wolf is a great read. The effects of testosterone (and the workings of your body in general) on your decision making and development as a trader over the short, medium and long term uncovered by former trader turned Cambridge University academic (no dummies there) John M. Coates.

I will write a longer review somewhere else on the forum later but I recognise myself in a lot of this. I'm only just over halfway through and it's very good.

I'll be keeping a view on my Sharpe Ratio


Mentaltraining für den erfolgreichen Day-Trader
Touted and reviewed as a deep piece of work that is not easily digested. As far as I can see this is book could be just about the best "get to know thyself as a trader" book in the German speaking world. I don't know if it has been translated yet but I'd be interested to hear what any other readers of this book have to say.

Wheras books like Supertrader from Van Tharp tell you to "do the work" - this one is really structured and clear about "what the work is".

My first impressions are that it is going to be a great tool for someone like me. It is however going to take a long time to work through the book. Some say up to a year!


2. Trading Plans and Next Steps
Just in the last week
  • with even the few trades I've done
  • taking into account the new tools that I have started to use consistently (@vvhg 's Journal)
  • the public and private feedback I've received

I'm all fired up.

Firstly, given the state of my chart, the way that I have been able to read price action so far and prudent use of my Kelly formula - I know I'm not going to go bankrupt. This is a relief. :-) . My entries are (geneally speaking) good enough now to keep me out of trouble.

Secondly - I was always worried that I would not be able to find the right rhythm to trading. In the past I was trading maybe 10 or 15 trades a day. Waaaay too much ... but I was unsure as to whether I should wait for a better chance. I'm confident that I can now wait.

Thirdly - I'm going to get rid of that ABE and trailing stop. They are out.

Fouthly - I never really paid too much attention to Top Step Trader before but the Webinar last week left quite an impression on me. Those metrics are pretty interesting.
  • Average Winner > Average Loser
  • Time in Winners > Time in Losers
  • Overall Win % > 45%

Simple - but not easy - the way I like it. Food for thought.

I'll be watching all these numbers in my own little extended combine and drawing attention to them.

3. Trades
With all of that expense in terms of time and money for all of that research - it will surprise you to know that I messed up the two best trades of the day.

Morning Trade: Just plain missed it
Afternoon Trade: Got in perfectly (according to my criteria) and then ... bailed too early. I made 5 points instead of 30.

I am a glass half full guy so the question for me to ponder tonight is not "Will I ever learn?" but just "How long will it take?"

This old dog can learn new tricks!!

Trade well.

podski

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  #19 (permalink)
Belgium
 
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Hi All,

Today was a sort of messy day all over the markets it seems.

Two trades only - both losers I'm afraid.


Trade 1 13:15-CET: Long (Loser -15 ticks)

Reason for Entry: Pullback in an uptrend - looking for continuation

Stop: placement at a fixed place behind entry point.

Risk wise - this is steady - however my entry was a little late.

A classic question is - where should the stop be placed in a trade like this?

My stop is sort of in no-mans land. It should either be very tight (the stop analysis in my journal suggests between 4 and 8 ticks). Or it would have been very far away. Too far.


Exit: Stop Filled

Post Trade Analysis (10-15 minutes later):
There may have been an element of boredom in this trade (looking at this market since 08:30 am).
Once the price closed below the SMA(21) it was game over and I should have gotten out manually.
It never felt or looked like a great trade.



Trade 2 13:40 CET : Short (Loser -3 ticks)

Reason for Entry: Pullback in a sudden downtrend switch.

Stop: placement at 15 ticks behind entry.

Trade went to + 12 ticks and pulled back. The market feels very jumpy and is not really trending - so my gut says get out - there will be a better entry.

Exit: Manual bail

Post Trade Analysis:
It appears was right to get out and bail on that "gut feeling" and price action reading (one bar reversal).
It was a pity that it didn't reach my target but to be honest - I never should have been in this trade.


Looking at the 15 min Chart:
This was simply a long trading day - no room for shorts really - not for the likes of me.



Why did I miss the trades of the day - again?
I can see the trades of the day as they are happening - but I am having concentration issues. It's a long day.

One of the main reasons is that I am using trend filters and they are a little slow to react.

That meant that the large morning trend move was just about over before I could get in. I'm curing myself of chasing trades so no way was I going to do that.

However - there were indications that the direction was changing. I've got to work on focus at these moments.

Simple MA-Cross indicators should alert me.

When the price is trading at my main moving average it can be some of the most boring price action. However it is also the time when the value for money in a trade is at its highest.

Does anyone have any suggestions for staying alert at these moments ??

Final Thoughts:
When I reply the day's events again in my head I feel that there is a little something missing that I used to have - funnily enough.

Firstly I'm not paying enough attention to the higher time frame. That is an issue. I find when I am looking at only the 5 minute chart that a deep pullback becomes a trend change. It shouldn't.

Secondly - I need to work on my pre-trade procedure just a little more so that I am physically more alert.

Trade well.

podski

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  #20 (permalink)
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You could try running through a visualisation in your mind of you making a successful trade. You can also create a mantra for yourself - a short sentence that you repeat to yourself when you realise you have let your concentration slip. E.g. "I am alert, focused and prepared - I am more consistent than 99% of other traders".

Just my 2 cents

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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