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Price is coming into balance on a higher timeframe, wedging into the larger symmetrical triangle, but still showing bullish tendencies as of today's session. 92.21 has my attention as preferred support, below that is a zone between 90.30-90.80.
IF ES would have been happier today, crude could have been ready to bust out higher, and considering the equities, crude held on pretty impressively today, showing relative strength with ES holding the leash tightly in the opposite direction of the most recent previous occurence.
I quit watching, and not interested tonight, but ES was approaching it's major trendline and a key support pivot as I shut the computer down today. Somewhere 1600ish. Whatever it did, I will see it tomorrow. One market is enough for me to stay deeply involved with.
I ended today net 269. Best single day since coming back to nexusfi.com (formerly BMT), and did it with not a lot of work, and not much leverage. Or, better said, not a lot of work TODAY. I did watch it nonstop yesterday, traded it some last night, had my thoughts about the day's action since last night, charts were ready, senses were sharp.
That is actually how I should trade, not expecting to be working so much, but rather allowing CL to do it's thing. I know after so many years of watching it that many of the best trade locations come when crude is doing it's best to convince me I should consider myself lucky to just get a scalp. And I also know from experience that thought damages performance.
Crude is such a good bluffer sometimes. Yesterday's long, and then today's shorts, both seeming to be stepping in front of a truck. But while I used to think that required courage, today I see it more as requiring knowledge.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I entered that thinking I would swing it, but then closed for going against a trend day so far. I am waiting for ES 1600 or lower to really believe in a runaway move. And that same concern is why I closed early on the buy this morning. I went for IB1, thinking at least the shorts from the morning would get blown out, and almost went for the NPOC, but just sat flat until it got there and then went the other way.
11:51am - flat and not sure if I will trade again. My gut says this is a sell, the profile says it is an uptrend. I should have held that short for mean regression, but after I was in and stared at the charts for awhile I got uneasy about it. I bought into the reverse recently, but that was different. CL is uptrending, albeit with high volatility. Last night I had assumed I would come to this market today as a buyer, and it took awhile to follow through on that, but I was also not expecting a ballistic move to blow the major highs, yet. Not with ES where it is and Friday's news uncertainty.
I may sell a retest, but still into a tredn day OTFing market may not be the best move. Current Net 173, which is a major streak for me so far this week. I don't need another trade, although my ego would like to see 3 $2k days in a row, and I am so close. But that thought just gave me cold chills. Literally, felt it as I typed it. Just did it again... WTF?
Something in my memory relating trading for a monetary goal, or a lesson I learned so well that my subconscious will not go against it?
I was driving to the doctor's office yesterday afternoon, and had a thought that made me laugh out loud to myself in the car. I came into trading expecting it to make me a lot of money. Today, I just want it to make me a lot of happy.
I'll see if I can find a trade that makes me happy.
Now that ES has held, or at least is trying to, and it looks likes shorts may get trapped, I have re-entered my "runner" that I took off early this morning, at a slightly (4 tick) better position.
Friday was not the end of the week I was hoping for, and in that statement there is a flaw. But that is not really all of it. For the first time this year I ran into whatever caused me so much trouble during a few day period last year. I have called it a lot of things, overconfidence being one of them.
And whatever it is, it comes as a reactive response to something that only occurs after I have had a good winning streak. That is why overconfidence seemed to be correct, but that word is not it. And the wrong terminology masks the real issue.
A lot of thoughts bouncing around in my mind, trying to bring it all together to the root of the problem. I am going to spend some time later getting my head into a very clear space, with a pen and paper there but not expecting to be writing as much as exploring.
And while I could blame it on CL ripping right through the prior day's value area as if it were only 10 ticks wide, that is not it either. I could blame it on having gotten stopped out of my buy that was so close to the low of day, but that is to be expected. Friday's loss was about me.
The loss itself is not bad. The way I achieved it is.
While I cannot prevent losses, I do not have to contribute to them.
Overconfidence may be a symptom, but not the disease. The same with the 180 tick loss I had by the end of the day, just a symptom...
