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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #831 (permalink)
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I have put aside my Jim Dalton books temporarily, will finish next, but opened the CBOT Market Profile study guide and find it an easier read for some reason.

May have finally found a version of volume ladder that I find useful, but for now it does not have the numbers. I realize I may be missing the whole point, but I am working away from 1mVSA and needed some common ground.

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I still need to post performance for last week. I had to figure out where it was in SC and have not had time to try to export.

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MY NUMBER ONE FOCUS - VOLUME - I HIGHLIGHT IT CONSTANTLY, AND IT CAUSES ME TO FOCUS ON REVERSALS, NOT CONTINUATION

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WAITING TO TRADE UNTIL THE MARKET COMES TO ME, EXPECTING TO KNOW WHERE IT WILL TURN "PREFERRED ZONE"

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TRYING TO APPLY A VERY LIMITED KNOWLEDGE OF MARKET PROFILE

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WHY NOT GO WITH THE DIRECTION INSTEAD OF WAIT? I HAVE NOTHING TO SAY ONE S/R LEVEL IS BETTER, OTHER THAN CONFLUENCE.

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THIS IS THE DIRECTION I WANT TO GO

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I want to go back and reconstruct the day. I learned something about my trading that holds me back and the story is here in images.

I permalinked this and may edit later. I saw recently that I have a time limit, which is good.



The first trading education I purchased ($$$$) included a lot of things, but what I took with me from it condensed down to only two major areas; I minute volume spread analysis, and support and resistance levels. As I moved on through years of backtesting and indicators, trading MACD, Bollinger, Keltner, Donchian, breakouts, chart patterns, a whole list of moving averages, RSI, Momentum, Stochastics, etc, etc... reading book after book, watching video after video...

I still seemed to find my best chance falling back to the original two.

So what I learned to do is;
  1. Wait for an area of anticipated S/R
  2. Watch for a high volume bar
  3. Expecting a reversal, try to get in going the other direction

I also learned that I was wrong about the turn more often than not. But, very often I would get 5 or 10 or 15 ticks, up to around 50 max, and then it would start to come back on me, many times to turn into a losing trade. So in defense I learned to also watch volume for an exit, took small losses, tried to perfect “feeling” the market. And so that experience, plus tenacity and survival, came together to shape me.

I referred to myself as a remora once, picking up the scraps from the kill, trading around the point of battle without expecting to go anywhere further than maybe 20 ticks.


Here is the problem with that;
  • High volume entries are most often countertrend.
  • I did not have any explanation for why my S/R levels worked sometimes and not others.
  • I have learned not to hold a trade for very long.
  • That style relies more on fear than confidence.


And so, sizing up felt reckless. Trading for a living seemed immature. Trading in general seemed far to random to count on.


But now, having re-discovered market profile, having seen that there are things that I “knew” but could not describe until I read another post here, I believe I may have found the next step. A two-part step actually, the first involving internalizing a new layer of looking at the market, and the other being the need to redirect some things I have formed into trading habits.

And I saw that conclusion through the images of a recent day,captured above with some added comments to summarize.

So I am weaning myself off VSA, learning when to expect SR to hold and when not to, finding a new trigger to trade with a trend instead of at the turn, but still holding the skill of spotting a turn, learning to hold a trade more often than not, digesting that there is more order to price movement than was once perceived.

Shifting from fear to confidence.


Last edited by GaryD; April 6th, 2013 at 11:48 PM.
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That symmetrical triangle continues to play out. On a longer range I would anticipate short side dominance below 94.50 (actually short side entry zone there as well), but possible temporary support above 91.50.

88.50 for minimum long range correction completion, further if this is a new trend, with temporary support around the merged TPO excess around 89.90.


Last edited by GaryD; April 7th, 2013 at 12:58 PM.
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I did a little tweaking this morning on the 500t.

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Gary, since you are having to rollover monthly, you might want to know that SC just enhanced their automatic rollover feature. I have not tried it yet and don't know anything about it, but it's in the latest 961 release. See here for more info:

Sierra Chart - View Single Post - [Resolved] Continuous Futures Contract Charts

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Price got rejected out of both extremes about evenly on Friday. A lot of uncertainty.


Last edited by GaryD; April 7th, 2013 at 07:18 PM.
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josh View Post
Gary, since you are having to rollover monthly, you might want to know that SC just enhanced their automatic rollover feature. I have not tried it yet and don't know anything about it, but it's in the latest 961 release. See here for more info:

Sierra Chart - View Single Post - [Resolved] Continuous Futures Contract Charts

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I have a week to upgrade and figure it out. Running 957.

Thanks Josh.

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That came out interactive. I was going to just post the question with the chart, but I hit "print screen" after I had already typed it. And I spent 4 hours reading study material, another two at the computer messing with indicator visuals and trying to figure out where the market is as best I can, and then help a friend cut up and stack enough avocado firewood for next year's season for both of us. I wanted to chill, so I put it into high-res PDF for a little fun.

And, other than the Delta Divergence which just happened by accident, this chart is a very visual way to look at VL. It is what I decided on, so far. I thought, "What am I looking for?", And then messed with it until it looked like something that made sense to me.

Really, yes I may miss something to not know if it was 4000 contracts vs 400. But that detail can wait. And someday I may get to where I want that added. But for now I need to just get comfortable with it. If only I looked at trading as something I just enjoyed regardless.

oh wait,

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Like a turtle to his balcony...-delta-divergence-copy.pdf  

Last edited by GaryD; April 7th, 2013 at 11:13 PM.
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I also built this in Excel today, if anyone wants it I will email.

PS - As an ex-musician, this is exactly like tablature. Two guitars in harmony.

Attached Thumbnails
Like a turtle to his balcony...-long-term-auction-chart.pdf  

Last edited by GaryD; April 7th, 2013 at 11:07 PM.
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I have a lot of new information to digest this week. I read 107 pages of the CBOT manual today. The few weeks primer into the language was very handy. I am really enjoying it compared the other other books I was working through, not sure why. Same stuff in a way, particularly for someone who does not know it. I was actually deep into it for awhile, entertained even? For a technical manual that is a weird thought. But it is a "study guide", and I am assuming the way it is put it together somehow made it faster for me to digest. Cliff Notes, kind of.

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