I am a little nervous about it, but am going to trade off a new chart layout tomorrow. Going to test drive the new car and see how I like it compared to my current one. :car:
If the worst that can happen is I lose some money, that is no longer scary to me.
I am considering trading the Euro... it has been so long since I watched that market move, tonigt is the first chart I pulled up in probably 6 months. Need to think about why, or do I just stay on CL... I have a feling the correlation is not going to be as strong, and do not even know why right now...
I will do a Euro workup and see how I feel.
BLOOMBERG -
Europe Braces for Fresh Turmoil With Cyprus Deposit Levy
By Patrick Donahue - Mar 17, 2013
Europe braced for renewed turmoil as outrage in Cyprus over an unprecedented levy on bank deposits threatened to derail the nation’s bailout. The euro tumbled.
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Scenes of Cypriots lining up at cash machines raised the specter of capital flight elsewhere and threatened to disrupt a market calm since the ECB’s pledge in September to backstop troubled nations’ debt. With no government in Italy, Spain in the throes of a political scandal and Greece struggling to meet the terms of its own bailout, more turmoil could hamper efforts to end the crisis.
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In a bid to ease a run on banks, depositors who keep their account for two years will receive securities linked to future revenue from the country’s gas reserves, the president said. He said he would also seek to soften the impact on savers. The bank tax was the alternative to imposing losses on investors in a so-called bail-in, a step opposed by the Cypriot government, the European Commission and the ECB, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on ARD television last night. “It’s up to them to explain it to the Cypriot people,” Schaeuble said. “Clearly, the taxpayer should not be asked” to rescue banks from insolvency, he said, adding that Cyprus faced a “very difficult time” unless it accepts the tax.
The levy -- as of now 6.75 percent of all deposits up to 100,000 euros and 9.9 percent above that -- whittles the euro- area’s bailout of Cyprus to 10 billion euros, down from an original figure of about 17 billion euros, near the size of the nation’s 18 billion-euro economy. Cyprus is considering changing the structure of the taxes to charge big depositors more and small account-holders less, a a European official said.The European Commission, the IMF and the ECB would support that as long as the amount raised stayed the same, the official said.
Euro finance ministers reached agreement early on March 16 after 10 hours of talks. Cypriots awoke to find bank transfers already frozen as the government prepared to impose the tax before banks reopen tomorrow. Today’s bank holiday in Cyprus may be extended by at least one day, state-run broadcaster CYBC reported, without saying where it got the information."
It is higly unlikely this will go over well there, and highly probable to cause paranoia in other areas.
I do not like to think in absolutes when trading, but imagine, you have $100k in the bank on Friday, life is good, and Monday, without warning, and while the banks are closed, the government takes $10k of it away from you. For nothing that you did. Just "being patriotic" maybe.
And, then they say they may extend a "bank holiday" to keep you from getting the rest of your money out...
"Absolutely, there is no capital restrictions, people can move. We hope people will believe us, ...and that from now on they can be very confident that nothing will happen to their savings," Sarris said in Brussels.
Sarris had previously insisted that any bank bailout would not include confiscation of deposits.
But, he is telling the truth this time.
I don't know. Going to sleep and get up for the European open, watch, decide then. There is high-level support down here, no volume, and a market I don't trade. And if I miss it, I don't do bad in crude when the world is normal.
I thought about it as I went to bed last night, and while I see the opportunity in the volatility potential, trading is about probabilites and edges. And not about money, at least not as a priority. The reasons I will trade CL and not 6E for today are;
1) I watch CL constantly. I understand it's nuances, how to read it's volume. That in itself is an edge.
2) I am calm when I trade CL. That is a psychological edge.
3) I do not study to take advantage of news events.
4) A big move is not required for me to be profitable, and in fact, big moves can be difficult to trade.
After I wrote that I opened my "TUT" email for today;
"Whenever an escalator to "success" ascends without you, Gary, (just "swoosh-h-h-h-h-h!" right into the sky leaving you on the ground), it's always because there's another one on the way that will go even higher, with your name plastered all over it."
I really wanted to trade short today, but the setupo was not there in my view... 6E rallied, CL came off, weird correlation. And I do not know why, but last night I expected a weird correlation.
Your trying to fade a out of balance market and your working with no important ref points
dangerous.........
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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Just dont if your going to be tempted to try make what you have lost
I doubt there will be any thing amazing going on for the rest of the day any ways
We will most likley just try and balance now possibly
Losses are a essential part of doing business with the markets....its our job to control the size of them!
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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I have all my charts set to CL ##-## and i will execute off the front month that we area trading
Here is todays correct data...the correct view worked amazing
Having the correct view is key here
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
1) There is a setting in NT for Kinetick, if I recall (there was for IQFeed anyway), that gives you the option to back-adjust. What you are showing here is April merged with May, with no back-adjustment. If this is what you want, fine. But it is probably not the continuous contract you want. Look at the option and reload your data if you want to back-adjust.
2) There is no "correct" way to splice multiple futures contracts together. You are using a synthesized contract that does not exist, so it is really the most incorrect! Here is April Crude:
May Crude:
Whichever way you look at it, crude today has not traded near Friday's high, but it did trade to the POC area. Only if you take May and just plop it at the end of April do you get the false illusion that today has traded to Friday's high. Again, there is no right or wrong way to compose a futures contract when you incorporate multiple months.
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I believe the data i have at the moment is the correct view i need
Fridays range was set on the CL 04-13 contract as this was the contract with the most volume on Friday i believe
CL 05-13 took over in volume today
I always am skeptical about the right data on roll over and will need to confirm with s few people later after the close as i don’t want to disturb them now
But as of this time i believe the data i posted to be correct
As you said there is not right or wrong way as such
But I am tracking the Continuous contract data and levels
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
You are showing continuous, yes. Continuous back-adjusted, no. No right or wrong, but most people view a back-adjusted contract, because you could get the impression that today we traded to Friday's high, which a glance at April and May shows to be incorrect.
Put another way, someone who sold May at the open on Friday has not had his position come back to breakeven, whereas the view you are showing gives the opposite impression. Volume has rolled to May, but your current view relative to actual May levels is inaccurate.
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I just reloaded all my data and its matching your now
NT pisses me off
Here is my view now
Thanks josh......you would think after all this time trading it would be clear now
Every roll over is pure head ache!
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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No worries mate--rollover is one of my least favorite things to do, if for no other reason than the fact that familiar numbers have to change. And the question of back-adjusting amounts and procedures are different among different traders, so really the way to roll a futures contract and view past data is not a science (unfortunately). One of the things I don't miss about crude, I only have to roll 4x a year, compared to 12x.
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Its just screwed my head up about the big picture i was tracking now lol
We have a nice gap down holding and we were in a nice bracket i was tracking
Now all my beliefs have been distorted lol....dam
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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I went max down today. Recently read in Dalton's book that a full out trend day is the most dangerous, and even though I agreed when I read it, it does not make me invulnerable. Even though I have been nailed by it many, many times, it still can sneak up on me.
Looking at the MP chart, the thin and elongated shapre is easy to see now, but harder to see during. One time framing is the only clue, but one time framing also ends and becomes a different day typ more often than not.
What a reversal crude had today. Very surprising to me.
I read Ryan's post, made a winning trade, a losing trade, then listened to him.
Of all the trading pains, max down is the most painful to me. It is temporary, but it suggests complete failure for the day, and nothing I can do about it.
I would like to say it is easier for me to deal with them, and I guess in the context of how I handle them, or whether I can stop, or if I take it into the next day, then yes it is easier.
But the momentary feeling is not that much improved. How I respond to that feeling is. But it is a learned response, and does not come naturally, requires effort and awareness every time.
I have found I typicaly do not trade as well the day of rollover. Not that I can explain why, maybe just the sudden shift in price that seems to want to stay in my head.
Its hard to use the established value areas and POC`s for days like these
Just thought i would point this out
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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fading a out of balance market woth no ref point to work with
I hope you didnt get hurt in the crazy price action just then
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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Hurt, no. Wrong, yes. But believe it or not, I had my own justification, not just winging it. I was not expecting the day to run back to back with yesterday and thought it would balance.
Remember that the concepts of being "in balance and out of balance" make a lot more sense to you than to me at this point, and many times are adding confusion to some of my decisions. And, I am studying it to get better at it.
A friend thinks I am revenge trading. I thought I had a legitimate trade. But he could still be right, and my justification could be biased towards what I want to see.
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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It is looking like this will be a down week. The more I think about it the worse I seem to trade. Finished today up, but had very low confidence.
I feel that a large part of it that I am starting to try to integrate what little I know of market profile, and am misinterrpreting it, or getting mixed signals, or not believing in it, or any combination of things that weaken my trade conviction. And then started to overtrade.
Today I mostly watched. Talked a lot with Ryan around lunch time.
IN balance / OUT of balance / ANTICIPATING balance, IN value / OUT of value, ABOVE or BELOW Vwap/POC, POOR vs EXCESS. Not that any of the concepts are complicated, but getting it all to work together is.
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
EDIT: and afterwards, I felt great for at least 3 minutes, having sat through all the countertrend struggle. Then it took off higher with very little resistance...
