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Like a turtle to his balcony...


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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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  #301 (permalink)
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Gary, one of the stats I started keeping this week for my trades is "time to BE" and "ticks to BE" for winners--this says how long I waited (in minutes) before moving my stop to BE, and how many ticks of positive movement I got before I did so. I also am keeping a record for losses that has an "ideal stop" for when I am shaken out prematurely, and "ideal time to BE" and "ideal ticks to BE" to determine the optimum stop strategy for the trades that would have been winners but due to mismanagement, had me out. I am also keeping a record of losses that fit the category of "you were dead wrong here partner" so I can differentiate between losses, because they are not all equal.

My anecdotal experience tells me that when I am right, I am usually in the green within 5 to 20 minutes with a positive movement of 8 to 10 ticks, and my entry is never touched after that amount of time and distance from entry. If my stop is hit after that, I am usually simply trading with the wrong team at the moment.

I do not have enough data to determine the objective stats, but perhaps that is something you might want to keep in your log as well. I hate doing it because it requires me to write it down as it happens, but I think it could be valuable. Also for winners, I'm keeping a note of rotation cycles--it goes +8, then -6, then +12, then -5, then +8 to target, or something like that. If I can look back on a record of winners and see that it rarely goes +20 with no rotations, then it hopefully will give me the confidence to continue to improve in riding my winners, even when natural market pullbacks occur. The previous set of stats hopefully will give me some more objective idea of stop strategies; if the market goes 12 ticks in my favor, hardly ever has it come back to test my entry and then gone in my direction. This is partially due to my entry style, so when people say "don't move your stop to BE too soon," well this all depends on the timing and location of the entry, so I'm trying to find my own personalized answer so that I avoid a loss when unnecessary, yet I still give the market enough time and distance to work for me, based on what is a "usual" trade for me. I don't know if you keep these kinds of stats, but I am hoping that for me they will be enlightening and help me to improve my trade management.

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  #302 (permalink)
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Not great today.

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  #303 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Not great today.

Your not losing........

Them areas you were trying to fade were real tough ones

The market was out of balance out of value

I should have held my short but i just over reacted at the lows of yesterdays balance

Baby steps foreward

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #304 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Gary, one of the stats I started keeping this week for my trades is "time to BE" and "ticks to BE" for winners--this says how long I waited (in minutes) before moving my stop to BE, and how many ticks of positive movement I got before I did so. I also am keeping a record for losses that has an "ideal stop" for when I am shaken out prematurely, and "ideal time to BE" and "ideal ticks to BE" to determine the optimum stop strategy for the trades that would have been winners but due to mismanagement, had me out. I am also keeping a record of losses that fit the category of "you were dead wrong here partner" so I can differentiate between losses, because they are not all equal.

My anecdotal experience tells me that when I am right, I am usually in the green within 5 to 20 minutes with a positive movement of 8 to 10 ticks, and my entry is never touched after that amount of time and distance from entry. If my stop is hit after that, I am usually simply trading with the wrong team at the moment.

I do not have enough data to determine the objective stats, but perhaps that is something you might want to keep in your log as well. I hate doing it because it requires me to write it down as it happens, but I think it could be valuable. Also for winners, I'm keeping a note of rotation cycles--it goes +8, then -6, then +12, then -5, then +8 to target, or something like that. If I can look back on a record of winners and see that it rarely goes +20 with no rotations, then it hopefully will give me the confidence to continue to improve in riding my winners, even when natural market pullbacks occur. The previous set of stats hopefully will give me some more objective idea of stop strategies; if the market goes 12 ticks in my favor, hardly ever has it come back to test my entry and then gone in my direction. This is partially due to my entry style, so when people say "don't move your stop to BE too soon," well this all depends on the timing and location of the entry, so I'm trying to find my own personalized answer so that I avoid a loss when unnecessary, yet I still give the market enough time and distance to work for me, based on what is a "usual" trade for me. I don't know if you keep these kinds of stats, but I am hoping that for me they will be enlightening and help me to improve my trade management.


No, not in writing, but in my head somewhat. I am rarely in a trade that I could not get 8-11 ticks on, but "rarely" could mean 33%? (My guess would be closer to 20%)? I don't know. I know what you are saying about right or wrong fast. I actually often feel I should drop a trade if it does not work out within a certain amount of time, but again, that is a feeling. The problem I have with exact numbers is it is all different; the background. Hopefully as I get more comfortable with MP I will start to have limited classifications of background.

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  #305 (permalink)
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greenr View Post
Your not losing........

Them areas you were trying to fade were real tough ones

The market was out of balance out of value

I should have held my short but i just over reacted at the lows of yesterdays balance

Baby steps foreward

I know. My T&S was firing "mayday". Big smile anyway.

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  #306 (permalink)
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Trying to keep my broker in business.

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  #307 (permalink)
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LSP/38.2/161.8 confluence at reversal


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  #308 (permalink)
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I shorted and sat there forever. A little better net, but not very good trading overall today. My DD is horrible compared to the net.

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  #309 (permalink)
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I often enjoy her emails. Today's was one I wanted to read again. I know for me this makes complete sense and I actually see this in my trading as it happens sometimes.

- The ReThink Group


The phrase "control your emotions" still reigns as near gospel in the trading world. It's odd that more people haven't noticed that even logically the idea is incorrect. You can feel WHATEVER you feel - it is only what you DO that makes or loses money.

Jennifer Lerner, Founder of Harvard's Decision Science Library, has been known to say that brain and psychological science ignored emotion for 60 years. She is right. In the 1950's, with the rise of computing machines, researchers started thinking of the brain as a computer.

As it turns out, this path ignored the critical element in decision-making - the feeling of confidence (and it's opposite, fear, anxiety and doubt). Science now knows that every decision includes this confidence factor and without it, there are no decisions. This brings us to the better strategy of "emotions (and feelings and senses) as information". It also means we need to learn new ways of gathering and understanding this internal data.

Traders more than any other group are provoked to "DO" (or act-out) the emotions and feelings they are not conscious of. The effort to keep feelings at bay - the control part - actually increases the odds that a trader will indeed "DO" that feeling - instead of just feeling it. The feelings exist in the form of neuro-electro-chemical energy and as such that energy is either expended or stored. (You know how you feel a momentary relief of tension right as you push the button - that is the energy being dissipated.)

Learning to work with feelings and emotions as information can be done. It requires un-learning most of what you have been practicing but it can be done.

Every time you use this new skill, your bottom line improves. Either you avoid acting out - and losing (which puts you in a mental state to take the next good trade) or you limit the damage by curtailing a tilt or meltdown day before it spirals out of control. Next, you can read the acting out of other people - and even the patterns of the algos designed by other people - because you are familiar with the real source of the decision-making of the traders you compete against.

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  #310 (permalink)
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I can finally put the analysis books away, delete those bothersome lines and fibonacci calculators. This is all I need to know.





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  #312 (permalink)
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I should document that I have gone back to something I used to do in sim, and that is to see how long it takes to double an account with acceptable drawdowns. It is not something I think about daily, and the account size is not large, as I struggled intensely psychologically with the concept of size. But this is the first time I have tried this exercise in a long time. I needed to take a step back, stop pushing so hard, and at the same time it is a step forward. It is a task I did in sim enough times to believe in it, and by going backwards in practice I feel relaxed, can laugh at a loss, can maintain expectancy of the next win, etc.

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GaryD View Post
... see how long it takes to double an account with acceptable drawdowns. ...

I wish you well; yes, we must all do our math and see how far the mountain is before starting the trek.

But for your sake and mine (my first mentor on Big Mike, and per se) please watch out for that big ditch while fixing your gaze skywards to the mountain top.

I hate to evoke unpleasant memories but I know that an amount of time has passed and you can accept trading into your current situation much more openly than earlier when you had self-feedback pressure building up, hence dared to bring up this note - it is not the advice 'of Proceed with caution' but rather an urging to focus on process goals rather than money goals.

This post explains it better.

Maybe I am ranting here and reading more into a simple line, but the above advice is as much for myself as for anybody else!

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  #314 (permalink)
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I wish you well; yes, we must all do our math and see how far the mountain is before starting the trek.

But for your sake and mine (my first mentor on Big Mike, and per se) please watch out for that big ditch while fixing your gaze skywards to the mountain top.

I hate to evoke unpleasant memories but I know that an amount of time has passed and you can accept trading into your current situation much more openly than earlier when you had self-feedback pressure building up, hence dared to bring up this note - it is not the advice 'of Proceed with caution' but rather an urging to focus on process goals rather than money goals.

This post explains it better.

Maybe I am ranting here and reading more into a simple line, but the above advice is as much for myself as for anybody else!


It is not as dangerous as it may sound. It is a place of calm.

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  #315 (permalink)
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key point of interest this morning.

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  #316 (permalink)
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Took an early entry, then closed due to seeing my cursor lag as I moved across the screen. I had a bluescreen incident recently and not sure what the resource issue is. Restarted computer.


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  #317 (permalink)
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iqgod View Post
I wish you well; yes, we must all do our math and see how far the mountain is before starting the trek.

But for your sake and mine (my first mentor on Big Mike, and per se) please watch out for that big ditch while fixing your gaze skywards to the mountain top.

I hate to evoke unpleasant memories but I know that an amount of time has passed and you can accept trading into your current situation much more openly than earlier when you had self-feedback pressure building up, hence dared to bring up this note - it is not the advice 'of Proceed with caution' but rather an urging to focus on process goals rather than money goals.

This post explains it better.

Maybe I am ranting here and reading more into a simple line, but the above advice is as much for myself as for anybody else!


You like this type of thought. Try this;

The goal is not the issue. The thought process is. The mechanics are.


There is little reason to sweat blood in the pursuit of learning to trade if money were not some motivating factor. It is what it motivates us to do that can become a problem.

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  #318 (permalink)
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scalping against a one-timeframing market. Stop it.




I do it out of habit, and possibly because I am bothered by the fact I bailed this morning. Neither have anything to do with trading correctly.



Opportunity Addiction.

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  #319 (permalink)
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1 off 15


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  #320 (permalink)
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Trying to run a business, take care of my wife, feed the dog, keep the fireplace buring, and trade correctly...


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  #321 (permalink)
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and I wonder why I like scalping so much


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  #322 (permalink)
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closed


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  #323 (permalink)
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Goal hit by $66

Jan 23 - March 14


Reset the clock

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  #324 (permalink)
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I'll try not to spend it all on one trade. (Been there, done that)

BTW, taking some heat on the CNBC trade. Down $21k. But, that is the brilliance of the stop placement.

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  #326 (permalink)
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Nice grabs, Gary.

Ken "COTtrader"

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  #327 (permalink)
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Per @josh, I do not want to trade at value... riding right on today's POC. Short covering formation... poor high.

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  #328 (permalink)
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Why is price stoppping here?


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  #329 (permalink)
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Why is price stoppping here?

Front running 93?

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  #330 (permalink)
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Front running 93?

I think so... 93.00 big number :P

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I think so... 93.00 big number :P


yeah, but it was already taken out prior two days. Yesterday's POC front running?

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yeah, but it was already taken out prior two days. Yesterday's POC front running?

Tons of resistance in that area though. And round numbers just mesmerize people haha.

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  #334 (permalink)
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should burst into the close



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  #335 (permalink)
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cleaner view. volume has left the building. Should be an interesting close



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  #336 (permalink)
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Intense concentration at 92.80

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  #339 (permalink)
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yes baby! Tried to act like it was giong down...



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  #341 (permalink)
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Slow, very boring day. I "knew" this morning that 92 was the place, but between not feeling right with market profile, my computer acting weak, not having slept much all week, etc, I allowed uncertainty to get the better of me.

My guess is Ryan held that trade...


NT did not calculate P&L right...

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  #342 (permalink)
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NT calculates a different P&L if "Group Trade by ATM Strategy" is selected. WTF?

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Intense concentration at 92.80


Going back to this, I believe today part of my confirmation was this profile shape to trade long into the close. Nearly all of the volume was below the POC, with above the POC basically a flat line. In my view "out of balance", with shorts above POC stuck.

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  #344 (permalink)
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Nice job at the close Gary. I am long ES and also "hoping" (the word which has no place in trading) that we will see the all-time s&p close touched today -- got 3 points shy of it this morning and hard to believe they won't try again but hey, these are crazy markets and anything can happen. I'll wish for a little of that bullish crude action to rub off so I can get my target

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Nice job at the close Gary. I am long ES and also "hoping" (the word which has no place in trading) that we will see the all-time s&p close touched today -- got 3 points shy of it this morning and hard to believe they won't try again but hey, these are crazy markets and anything can happen. I'll wish for a little of that bullish crude action to rub off so I can get my target

This is a major switch for me this year, but I do not watch anything but crude anymore. I might pull up a chart after hours, but during live trade there is nothing else going on but CL. I used to try to get some correlation advantage and constantly monitor ES and 6E, and that did sometimes work well, but I decided I can see whatever I need to see in the market I am trading. Correlation comes and goes, adding to what Dalton I think called "cognitive dissonance" (great advice in my opinion).

The only way I knew equities were at their highs was from the headlines. lol!

What is your thought on the profile shape I mentioned? Would you feel the same?

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I am long ES and also "hoping" (the word which has no place in trading) that we will see the all-time s&p close touched today -- got 3 points shy of it this morning and hard to believe they won't try again...

You know how people can't stop themselves from shorting that. I'd bet long too, but where and when I don't know.

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  #347 (permalink)
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Even though it was simulated, that was not an ES "trade", it was a gamble. Removing it.

The CNBC trade was a joke, this was tapping into a vibe that has no place here. Making it ok to enter on a whim or just to see what happens is not where I am headed. Sorry Josh.

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  #348 (permalink)
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The mouse is not there to play with.


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  #349 (permalink)
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Tonight I have performance anxiety. I never thought of it as that, but I get it quite often. It happens when I am "up" but concerned that I won't stay that way.

And now back to trading.

"Quit while you are ahead". "Go into the weekend with a winning day". "Protect your profits".

Fear-based rules. Things I have taught myself to do, or was taught by others to do, but now question.

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  #350 (permalink)
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What is your thought on the profile shape I mentioned? Would you feel the same?

If you mean post 343, then yes it makes sense. But earlier you mentioned about short covering. This is a Dalton thing (I think) and I do not really subscribe to it, though I do see some of the logic in it. In his theory, a short covering profile like this (which, given that probably several were short from the last two prior days) means more downside to come. But the way it finished, I don't think it would qualify, since there was range extension up at the close, but maybe I'm wrong. Either way, that way of thinking does not factor into my decisions very much, if at all. Maybe I'm biased against it because it's so pattern recognition oriented; I see people everywhere talking about 'B' and 'p' and 'b' shaped profiles, and it kind of turns me off. I have seen too many counter examples to put much faith in labeling a 'p' profile after a down day a "short covering rally."

But in post 343 you said that "nearly all the volume was below the POC" when in fact nearly all the volume was within about 10 ticks higher and 20 ticks lower than the POC. I think what you mean is that there is a long tail below the big fat distribution centered around 92.80. In the graphic below, you can see that D, E, and F period lows were all around the A period high. The open was a few ticks off the low, and the fact that A was never again traded indicates a very strong demand. Competition was high for prices below 92.60, and you only got them if you took the small window of opportunity that existed for only a few minutes at the open. Competition means low volume and small windows of time, just like when something is on sale, it doesn't last long because inventory is bought and prices go back to normal.

An open that low near the LOD, D, E, and F not being able to get lower, and value established higher means it is VERY unlikely (in my book, maybe 10%) that a low like that will be revisited again in the day. So, all a good recipe for an auction higher to see if more value can be found up there. It was a good play, great job getting in there.


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  #351 (permalink)
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josh View Post
If you mean post 343, then yes it makes sense. But earlier you mentioned about short covering. This is a Dalton thing (I think) and I do not really subscribe to it, though I do see some of the logic in it. In his theory, a short covering profile like this (which, given that probably several were short from the last two prior days) means more downside to come. But the way it finished, I don't think it would qualify, since there was range extension up at the close, but maybe I'm wrong. Either way, that way of thinking does not factor into my decisions very much, if at all. Maybe I'm biased against it because it's so pattern recognition oriented; I see people everywhere talking about 'B' and 'p' and 'b' shaped profiles, and it kind of turns me off. I have seen too many counter examples to put much faith in labeling a 'p' profile after a down day a "short covering rally."

But in post 343 you said that "nearly all the volume was below the POC" when in fact nearly all the volume was within about 10 ticks higher and 20 ticks lower than the POC. I think what you mean is that there is a long tail below the big fat distribution centered around 92.80. In the graphic below, you can see that D, E, and F period lows were all around the A period high. The open was a few ticks off the low, and the fact that A was never again traded indicates a very strong demand. Competition was high for prices below 92.60, and you only got them if you took the small window of opportunity that existed for only a few minutes at the open. Competition means low volume and small windows of time, just like when something is on sale, it doesn't last long because inventory is bought and prices go back to normal.

An open that low near the LOD, D, E, and F not being able to get lower, and value established higher means it is VERY unlikely (in my book, maybe 10%) that a low like that will be revisited again in the day. So, all a good recipe for an auction higher to see if more value can be found up there. It was a good play, great job getting in there.



Josh, keeping in mind we both know I am at MP101...

This is what I saw as the "majority of volume"




That did not cause me to want to take the trade, as any version of MP has not had a place on my screens for years until lately, and I am not interested in being a trading guinea pig any more than I have to...

But because the majority of my learning energy is going to MP, I am trying to integrate the charts at least, see something visual and try to see if it agrees or disagrees with the other thougts I am having. That prompted the comment recently that "I know nothing", market-profile-overdose-induced-analysis-paralysis (MPOIAP, just in case).

I saw in dalton's book a ratio of above vs below POC, but the GOM indicator does not seem to include that text. I was going to buy the fin-algo today, but got sidetracked. I think it did offer that display option.

But back to the close long, my confirmation was the high volume bar test of the low of the mid-to-late RTH channel. I did not eneter at the test, I entered when it came back up to the most recent high pivot.






Meanwhile, prior to that I had just been watching, and posted on the VWAP thread a question of what the MP/POC crew saw.



Did not get a response.




Chatted on Skype with Ryan about it, got off topic somewhat, then defaulted to what little understanding I think I have of that style.



Or, short answer; luck? lol!



Josh I am really having fun with this. Hope you don't get offended.

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  #352 (permalink)
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On a higher timeframe I am still sticking with the 89.30ish major.

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  #353 (permalink)
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OK I see. If the mode of the distribution is the delineation, then yes there is more volume below than above. But looking at the entire distribution from high to low, it is clear that there is more volume at the top than the bottom, and that is what is more relevant to me. It says to me that as the day has progressed, higher prices have been accepted as more fair. It says that lower prices are unfairly low. And perhaps more importantly, it says that there has not been an auction higher to test whether higher prices will be considered unfairly high, or whether they will be accepted as fair. If a store sells an item that sells out quickly, it likely raises the price to test the market higher. If it finds that higher prices sell sufficient inventory and these higher prices become established as fair for some time, what is more likely to happen next--the store raises prices again to test the market's acceptance or rejection of higher prices, or that it will lower prices to those that have already been determined as too low? Well, barring some unforeseen shift in consumer sentiment, I would think higher prices are likely to be seen to test out the market's willingness to pay them. It doesn't mean that it will continue higher, it could just as well auction lower. But the preceding logic, and experience says that it is more likely to continue higher. No guarantees, but your own trading logic based on experience also said, "would rather be long up here than short."


GaryD View Post
I saw in dalton's book a ratio of above vs below POC, but the GOM indicator does not seem to include that text. I was going to buy the fin-algo today, but got sidetracked. I think it did offer that display option.

This is TPO count. It is not used very much anymore. A read in MoM on this will show why; he uses logic relating to TPO count and locals .. yes, those dinosaurs which are near extinction and play zero role in the global marketplace. I still laugh when I read comments like "locals are selling 800" ... 800, ha, funny when 2 million traded today. Even the revised text for the CME MP handbook says this: "Keep in mind, though, that certain ideas such as the initial balance, the TPO count and the kinds of range development are going to become less important..."

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Josh I am really having fun with this. Hope you don't get offended.

Why would I get offended? We're just a couple of guys talking markets man. I wouldn't be up chatting if it was not fun and interesting to me.

My question about your long is this--when you saw the high volume come in (that you circled), were you already thinking that you should be long? If so, why not buy right then? If the fairest price is 92.80, and you can buy at a discount of 92.70, why not do so, and why instead buy above the fairest price at 92.84? Just asking, and we have some differences in trading styles no doubt so I'm asking from one style to another. I could very well ask myself the same question today on an early long that I took, so this is a learning process for me as well, and talking through it with someone is very valuable I think.

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Why would I get offended? We're just a couple of guys talking markets man. I wouldn't be up chatting if it was not fun and interesting to me.

My question about your long is this--when you saw the high volume come in (that you circled), were you already thinking that you should be long? If so, why not buy right then? If the fairest price is 92.80, and you can buy at a discount of 92.70, why not do so, and why instead buy above the fairest price at 92.84? Just asking, and we have some differences in trading styles no doubt so I'm asking from one style to another. I could very well ask myself the same question today on an early long that I took, so this is a learning process for me as well, and talking through it with someone is very valuable I think.

Because, at 92.70 I was guessing. It was anyone's close. At 92.84 I had confirmation, and took a higher risk:reward based on a higher expectancy.

Some trades are guesses more than others.

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Why would I get offended?.

Because I have taken a very casuul and silly approach to my discussions lately. It is serious, no doubt. If I am down $1k, that was our food, utilities, etc. yet I seem to joke about the whole thing. To me it is fun, and if I had to put into one sentence why I almost imploded last year, it is because I would not allow it to be.

But that sarcastic, turtle-fucking, 50 contract shorting on a CNBC bullshit article, laughing-at-a-loss approach; combined with a very serious, business-minded, analytical, driven personality, seems to work for me. I stopped questioning it, and I see it in real dollars.

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Because, at 92.70 I was guessing. It was anyone's close. At 92.84 I had confirmation, and took a higher risk:reward based on a higher expectancy.

Some trades are guesses more than others.

I see, ok. In the end they are all guesses, which is the hard thing for people like me and you (you have talked before about how everything was calculated to the T on a spreadsheet, nothing was uncertain, etc.) who prefer (as most people do I guess) exactness, which is of course detrimental to us traders.

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I see, ok. In the end they are all guesses, which is the hard thing for people like me and you (you have talked before about how everything was calculated to the T on a spreadsheet, nothing was uncertain, etc.) who prefer (as most people do I guess) exactness, which is of course detrimental to us traders.

No. Therein resideded exactness




Which way was it going? Down was almost ruled out in that moment.

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No. Therein resideded exactness

Which way was it going? Down was almost ruled out in that moment.

By "therein resided exactness" I guess you mean at the circled area, 92.70? But you said a couple of posts ago that "at 92.70 it was anybody's close" -- and definitely it was almost ruled out, but nothing's for sure, and for me anyway, I like 100% probabilities much more than 90% ones by nature But in trading I have to live in a much lower realm than even 90%.

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josh View Post
I see, ok. In the end they are all guesses, which is the hard thing for people like me and you (you have talked before about how everything was calculated to the T on a spreadsheet, nothing was uncertain, etc.) who prefer (as most people do I guess) exactness, which is of course detrimental to us traders.

There is value in all that calculating to a T. It offers a mathematical understanding of movement. But a heavy focus on those extremes causes us to try to predcit the future without listening to what is the present.

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  #361 (permalink)
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You are a lion in Africa. You eat other animals. Each one has a certain weight, maximum running speed, number of population, intelligence. The same data exists for you as the lion. And statistically you could determine your odds of eating or starving.

I spent some time in Africa, and never did find a lion with a calculator. Never heard of a lion running a hedge fund. But saw some fat and lazy lions.



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2005 with my good friend Chris.

Questionable sanity, incredible depth to his thinking, undeniable transparency, salmon fishing in Alaska August 2013.


Goes by the name "Tuna Can" on Facebook. Freak. lol!!


And I emailed this permalink to him.

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Oh how I wish I had saved his email to me from who knows where in Africa; hitchhiking his way for over a year from south to north, living in a room in a brothel at that time, recovering from malaria (2nd time), his past Peace Corps partner just recently faked his identity...

Good time Mr. Tuna Can, if in fact that is your real name.

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josh View Post
My question about your long is this--when you saw the high volume come in (that you circled), were you already thinking that you should be long? If so, why not buy right then?

No, I was thinking there was structure that supported long. I was not thinking about even entering a trade until I saw the spike, and then the reversal. There is this common mindset that we are watching becasue we are suppossed to take a trade. What if we were watching and just decided to take a trade?




josh View Post
If the fairest price is 92.80, and you can buy at a discount of 92.70, why not do so, and why instead buy above the fairest price at 92.84?


"Fairest" meaning what? And yes, believe it or not I finally broke down and think I know what the term means. Broke down as in ego.

How long does "fairest" exist? It is a reference point. To further clarify, it is a reference point. What does it have to do with whether the market is most likely to go up or down at that exact moment?

On the other hand, what I tried to show in that chart did offer what I was looking for. Probability.

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  #365 (permalink)
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We spend so much study in the pursuit of perfecting our trade that we ignore what makes trading succesful;

#1 - What is happening?

#2 - What, as a result of #1, is most like to happen next?

#3a - If the odds of the net of #2 are only 25%, is your target at least 8x risk?

#3b - If the odds of #2 are 80%, are you comfortable with the thought of 1.2x risk to 1x reward?

#3c - If you answered yes to #3a or #3b, do you have the patience to prove it after you are in the trade?


And if you really get this post, you are closer than most.



Oh, and manage risk according to your account size. But even that does nothing without the above.

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I will say at this point, that I like volume, market profile, VWAP, HOD/LOD, "other's" stop placement consideration (and/or confirmation of a lack of, or confirmation of the existence of and yet the reactionary movement in conflict), as a second place to the last post.

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  #367 (permalink)
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understanding
order to chaos
expectancy
risk
patience
belief
faith
acceptance
tenacity
zen
confidence
fun

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1am. Melissa STILL sick. Slept on the couch with a dog that will not take no for an answer since Sunday. Tired. 3 beers, 1 glass of wine. Heavy work schedule. And typing this just caused me to release it all Or most of it. Sigh, shoulders dropped, became aware of what I was doing,

remembred the accountability because this is open to the world. OK, so that is the worst that is going to happen... fear of failure. Not just failure, everyone knows about it. Anyone.

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  #370 (permalink)
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By "therein resided exactness" I guess you mean at the circled area, 92.70?

YES

But you said a couple of posts ago that "at 92.70 it was anybody's close" --

CORRECT. IN THAT MINUTE BAR, YES. AND IN THE MINUTE BARS THAT PRECEDED THAT ONE.



and definitely it was almost ruled out, but nothing's for sure,

RIGHT. "ALMOST" IS IN THE REALM OF HIGH PROBABILITY. NO NUMBER IN THE WORLD WILL SAVE YOU.



and for me anyway, I like 100% probabilities much more than 90% ones by nature

JOIN THE CLUB


But in trading I have to live in a much lower realm than even 90%.

YOU ARE HELPING MY ARGUMENT

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Oh how I wish I had saved his email to me from who knows where in Africa; hitchhiking his way for over a year from south to north, living in a room in a brothel at that time, recovering from malaria (2nd time), his past Peace Corps partner just recently faked his identity...

Good time Mr. Tuna Can, if in fact that is your real name.





Diligence pays. The official email received, circa 2005... I am not sure if I am more embarrassed for Chris, or me.


EDIT: No, that was a different email, that was something from Weej. "Asparagus, the Lesotho Office, and How I Won the War". That is correct now. Never did meet him, but what a nut.

I wish I could find the one about the hookers on the train...




"Well, well, well...

Been a little naughty have we?

I woke up to monkeys flying out of my butt and realized this would be the day that I would hear you were ok...

I was a trifle concerned.

In the course of man's ever failing attempt to bridge that which cannot be bridged; to fail what cannot be failed; to chase that which is plaid...

dost the sun only rise but once? Nay I say... And feces to those that say it was all but a lie.

Of the many tales I tell, there is but one tail that forsaketh me not. Clad in plaid. Clad, in plaid...



Neither I nor my Gaelic half-brother Minky, (who, by the way, is fraught with much anger and rage), are worthy to sip from the cup which is your constant battle for circumcision.

There may be men who dream of gold and riches untold. There may be men who wish for fame or wisdom. Ah, but I say, it is he who knoweth no life. His is a bitter battle; an ongoing war with the spares being nothing but incontinence. A fleeting gas...



Are we not but of worms, scabs and mealy bugs in the end?

Are we destined for greatness and given the Divine hammer? (can't touch this...)

I think, so it is so.




My friend, it is with great pleasure and warmness of soul that I call you a friend. The bonds that a just and true friendship make can span the width of a galaxy, the breadth of a universe. And only miles are miles... Separation is only an idea hewn forth from the untrusting and unknowing. For the true idea is found within...(all worms aside)

My eyes have seen it. My mind's eye has known it. As we are tossed to the great wrestling mat that is life, I am in constant thought, reveling in that which is good. That witch's hole.

A beautiful day at the beach marveling at the human experience. Consumated from the rock of trials and tribulation, gas powered watercraft and idiots who pilot them, fast moving dogs, binoculars, and a friendship that will forever stand the test of time.

It all turns and so does this rock. So intricate is the pattern woven upon each sole. Whether Nike, Adidas, Puma or Converse. So divine is the plaid when the light renders it just right...

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Changed my mind on a long and then a short. I missed the open due to other calls and have no feel for anything yet. Gap up open, volume has not shown any support yet.


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I am curious about how my thoughts progress from here due to the "performance anxiety". I have a decent week, decent day, been on the phone all morning and cannot focus on the market at all yet.


Ahah, and the scalp feels better...


So, rather than a long CONTINUATION trade, I want to catch the turmoil. It is quick. And therefore I take a lot of countertrend trades, and therefore am on the opposite side of Ryan quite often.... Yesterday as we talked, he was just waiting and waiting. That is great when nothing else is going on. It takes a more subtle monitoring of activity. But if I have moments here and there, I need something graphic and violent.


If it makes money, is there anything wrong with that?

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TUT email of the day;


It's going to be bigger than you thought, you're going to be happier than you imagined, and your friends are all going to be like, "No-o-o-o way! That's so cool! How did you do it?"

Because, Gary, all earthly manifestations appear larger in real life than they do in one's mind. Way.

You are still visualizing, right?
The Universe

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Per Ryan, you don't sell a flat VWAP




Very even distribution so far


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Per Ryan, you don't sell a flat VWAP




Very even distribution so far


You got it.....

A flat vwap becomes the middle and we then use the developing value extreemes

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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cant seem to stop scalping today... very hectic with calls, emails, texts...


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GaryD View Post
understanding
order to chaos
expectancy
risk
patience
belief
faith
acceptance
tenacity
zen
confidence
fun



A list of things that rose to the top of my list of requirements last night. No system, no required indicators, no probabilities or expectancies or win %. That stuff is also important, but the things above are more important to me.

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  #383 (permalink)
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So at this point, would we be expecting a test of the NPOC, or expecting balancing for the remainder?


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  #384 (permalink)
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Volume can barely break 500, so it is a tough call for me


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  #385 (permalink)
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So at this point, would we be expecting a test of the NPOC, or expecting balancing for the remainder?


I would expect some version of balancing given the 1) potential major pivot in the 89.30 area, 2) Friday with additional media about potential conflicts in Iran.

But I would wait for volume to suggest where, and I may not get that until later

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  #386 (permalink)
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  #387 (permalink)
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  #388 (permalink)
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Something I said in a conversation last night;

" "Banked Risk" hit me like a truck. Interesting concept. I can scalp very well most days, but shy away from it for many reasons. Too scattered, trigger happy, risk to reward, knowing that overall I do better with "wins greater than losses. Look at my percentage wins, usualy not exceptional, but overall I do well at Max Win vs Max Loss, and Profit factor. The scalping is a slow grind."



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  #389 (permalink)
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Weekly summary.


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Like a turtle to his balcony...-3-15-13-weekly-performance-summary.pdf   Like a turtle to his balcony...-day-week.pdf   Like a turtle to his balcony...-pl-matrix.pdf  
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  #390 (permalink)
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I left the input page of the spreadsheet so copy and paste is a no brainer out of NT standard reporting, but then called on that data from a 2nd sheet so I could get some clutter out of the way and group things in a way that I would prefer to see them. I added a 4 week average, and will do additional averages as I go forward.

I want to compare the week's performance to an average (not the prior week), identify specific areas I want to focus on in the coming week (this week's highlighted in yellow again).

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  #391 (permalink)
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In case anyone wants to play with it.

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  #392 (permalink)
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I would expect some version of balancing given the 1) potential major pivot in the 89.30 area, 2) Friday with additional media about potential conflicts in Iran.

But I would wait for volume to suggest where, and I may not get that until later


This is the first time I have ever referred to market behavior as "balancing". And had I possesed any real faith in that concept I would have traded it much better. Price closed 2 ticks from the day's POC.




I have a long way to go with understanding market profile. I expect to put in 6-8 hours of study over the weekend, another 4 hours squeezed into next week, another 6-8 hours probably the next weekend, probably maintain some schedule like that for the next year, or 5.

Meanwhile, I can already see a slight shift in my thinking. Since I started back to trading I have had a lot of one-way only days, even if my trade direction was against the market, I felt better to focus on turning points in one direction. Yesterday, while I did not give any trade even the chance to run very far (as opposed to several trades in the past couple weeks that might have gone 25-30 ticks in my favor and then come back on me to breakeven), I did hit the market from both sides pretty fairly.







Timidly, yes. And was there a 50/50 chance I would be right about balanced? Of course. The small victory is that I am wanting to expand my understanding and that I am seeing little clues that I am accomplishing that.

I was talking with @josh about trading in the past week or two. I said to him, "But isn't part of the process having too much ego, not being receptive, thinking you understand, inability to follow simple instructions...", joking about it somewhat. But the reason it was kind of funny in the context of the discussion, is that it is so true.

To move forward I must; abandon ego, be open to new information, undertstand that I "know" nothing, and follow simple instructions.

Sounds easy. Not always so.

But it is feeling easier. And had I understood that feeling I have today back when I first started trading, things might have been much more relaxed than some of the intensity I went through. Would it have been possible to combine that sense of calm with the level of drive? I doubt it. Some things must be learned, but cannot be taught.

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  #393 (permalink)
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cant seem to stop scalping today... very hectic with calls, emails, texts...


The problem and it's cause in a single sentence.

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  #394 (permalink)
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I am long and that's my final answer


Here is one where I had determination to ride out my belief in the trade, as opposed to my approach to a balancing market on Friday. That trade I took my "banked risk" (new concept as of this week, not even sure I am using it correctly), and then the remainder came back on me.

Is it coincidence that when I held my position that day I was wrong, and then when I did not on Friday I would have been right?

Does that only happen to me?

That is why it is so important to find a belief system and stay faithful to it.

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  #395 (permalink)
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The cure to all is balance. Center. But we all swing away from center on some path, closer or wider, circular or linear, violent or subtle. And that is normal. The goal then, if looking for balance, seems like it would be to reduce the path of travel. But possibly balance is obtained by increasing acceptance of the volatility.

I must have been in an altered state of mind on this post. Not that what it says is wrong, I find it very accurate this morning. I find it very intriguing this morning. But the direction of thought was very complex, deeper than exists the majority of the time.

"possibly balance is obtained by increasing acceptance of the volatility"

As in, in market profile a narrow base versus a wide base. As in, allowing a profit target to remain until it is hit. As in, not having an expectation of a daily monetary goal but understanding that the volatility will eventually correct itself if I allow it to.


"The goal then, if looking for balance, seems like it would be to reduce the path of travel."

And that is what so many traders do wrong. Attempt to find a "system" that makes trading feel more believable. Attempt to engineer an entry with a 5 tick stop. Allow themselves to put unreasonable limitations on profit expectancy. Hold the belief that the way to win is to be right more often than wrong... In other words, attempt to "tame" the market.

But the opportunity exists in the appreciation of it being wild. Not without respect of course, without which, ego has taken control.

"balance is obtained by increasing acceptance of the volatility"

I am going to listen to that for awhile. Never had a post signature, maybe I will start.


I just realized the connection of that thought to the addition of a 4-week average in my performance reports. Wider range of review, longer time to correct. And going forward, adding another layer of average will give me specific areas of focus going forward, and a longer time horizon of expectation.

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  #396 (permalink)
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I just found an error in the Performance Report for the period 2/25/13 thru 3/1/13. Not sure why yet, Emailed NT. I understand the change in certain numbers, but not in Total Net Profit. Bottom line should not change when I am flat.

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  #397 (permalink)
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I spent some time entering each letter into a spreadsheet, feeling each day type unfold. They are organized in order of directional conviction with the first 3 periods highlighted for early recognition.

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  #398 (permalink)
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NT replied with the same info in the help section, but since I do not hold through weekends and was flat, to me Net Profit should not be any different no matter how it is organized. But, I went through my account statements and found that the lower net profit number was the correct one. Might have bothered me at some point, but it was a non-event emotionally. I just want it to be accurate so I can see the ratios.

What brought my attention to the reporting issue was not the money, it was the time in the market.

Organizing into a 4-week average will give me a benchmark for my performance, show me areas I can concentrate on going forward. This week the yellow highlighted areas in week 4 will be my focus.

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  #399 (permalink)
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Over the past few weeks I keep coming back to volume ladder,delta, cumulative delta volume. Maybe I am trying to make this more complicated than it should be, and I am already very comfortable with the 1m VSA method I use now, but inside that view there is additional data that could provide nuances, and knowing how much I use volume now, these indicators are like the new year's model of vehicle. Some tiny improvements, even through they may do the same thing (get you from A to Z) seem to draw me in whenever I have time to just sit in from of a chart on a weekend or at night. Trying to get something from Ryan's 1600 tick is pointless to me so far, but overlayed on a 1 minute might give an additional layer of vision.






And even though I am not familiar with these indicators, unlike when I might add a new indicator to a chart to see what it does, I already do understand what these indicators do very well. I have been attempting the same analysis without the indicators for years. Weird that I feel I can do it better without the indicator at this point... But I get comfortable in an area.

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  #400 (permalink)
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A symmetrical triangle inside a symmetrical triangle




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