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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #31 (permalink)
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josh View Post
A very brief part 2:

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Today crude basically balanced in the upper distribution from yesterday. This is not particularly bearish, but the fact that it could not get above yesterday's high this afternoon either is not particularly bullish. Since Monday's high has been rejected, a move to Monday's lows at 96 might very well be in play, as you are looking for, but since even the VPOC at 96.27 from yesterday could not be tested, a move to the upside is not unexpected either. In short, today was a balanced day, and the market in my very humble opinion has a decent chance of breaking out of this balance to either side (perhaps more to the upside given the context of the day trading in the upper portion of Monday's range, having already found major support at 96). Anyway, hope this trade works out for you Gary!




So, which bit of that analysis would you bet the farm on?

I hope you take my comments as trying to be funny. I am not always good at that...

I am working on something different in my mind right now. Less analysis, more digesting what I have learned. More of a "so what" if I am wrong, and a "trust myself" approach with what I know from experience.

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So, which bit of that analysis would you bet the farm on?

I hope you take my comments as trying to be funny. I am not always good at that...

I am working on something different in my mind right now. Less analysis, more digesting what I have learned. More of a "so what" if I am wrong, and a "trust myself" approach with what I know from experience.

I know you are joking Gary, I have always gotten your sense of humor. Since you have already "bet the farm" here and have a risk free trade, you are in a great position to trust yourself to do whatever you deem best. As you say, in the big scheme of things, it's one trade, so very much it's a case of "so what" if you are wrong (or right, for that matter).

Won't overstay my welcome, good to see you my friend. Btw, you still clearly have "the touch" in trading, as you always have, it's very cool to see.

-J

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Forgetting why I got in and how many hours of experience went into the whys, whens and hows... This is all I know;

Price broke it's intermediate trendline recently, shown in green.

The red dashed line probably contains stops from today.

The next thing I can find, based on how I view the market, as a decent suport structure is down around 95.50.

Stops are also most likely around that 95.90ish pivot. Bargain buyers may also be in that zone.

I know that crude can move easily $2 in a 24 hour period.

I have no idea where price is going from here.

I am already in the trade, and my stop loss is set to where my risk is currently non-existent.

I know that sitting in this trade, currently up 38 ticks, gives me some feeling of discomfort, or anxiety, or wanting to close the door to the unknown. It has been open long enough, so I feel. And that feeling is what I need to get comfortable with.

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josh View Post
I know you are joking Gary, I have always gotten your sense of humor. Since you have already "bet the farm" here and have a risk free trade, you are in a great position to trust yourself to do whatever you deem best. As you say, in the big scheme of things, it's one trade, so very much it's a case of "so what" if you are wrong (or right, for that matter).

Won't overstay my welcome, good to see you my friend. Btw, you still clearly have "the touch" in trading, as you always have, it's very cool to see.

-J

Always welcome with me Josh. Come trade in Orlando for a week. I have the coolest setup right now, staying in a friend's house for awhile as I sort out where I go from here. Never had such a great view from a trade desk. I'll post some photos sometime.

My friend has decided to live other places for awhile. He left some of his stuff here and as I moved it into storage for him I found the wisdom of a fortune cookine, "KEEP YOUR FACE TO THE SUN AND YOU WILL NEVER SEE THE SHADOWS". That, my friend, is a pretty good trading plan. I am short, what reason is there for the market to go up?

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Good to see you back trading @GaryD

I knew you would be back

keep up the good work

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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The Razor's Edge Newsletter
For People Who Live Life in the Pursuit of Excellence
"Those Thoughts Are Molding You"
by Peter Ragnar



When a radio or television is blaring in the background or people are talking among themselves, we register these sounds unconsciously. Whenever we hear a commercial jingle, that jingle may even loop in our brains days later.

"It’s the same with popular songs we hear that soon have us singing the lyrics sub vocally."

The smallest particles of sound are called phonons. Phonons are not audibly detectable. A phonon is the amount of energy found in a vibration. That energy is actually atomic particles found in the crystalline solids within our bodies. They have a powerful influence on our thoughts and behavior, as well as the health of our bodies. For this reason, we should carefully monitor how we listen to negative conversations or express displeasure.

If you think of your body as a human tuning fork that has been set to a certain tone, it will help you understand your behavior.

This is especially true when your behavior surprises you. All of our decisions and all of our actions are filtered and influenced by the dominant tone of our conditioning. Our unconscious sub vocalizations—those times we hear ourselves talking to ourselves—are products of social conditioning and the things we have convinced ourselves to believe. Our physical flesh also reflects those beliefs. Those thoughts are molding our bodies.

If you think of how much advertising you’re exposed to daily, you can see how the race to occupy your brain has gotten faster. Back in the 1970s, when there were only three major television networks competing for your attention, they reached an estimated 70 percent
of the viewing population. CBS News recently reported that today the amount of advertising is significantly greater:

Well, it’s a non-stop blitz of advertising messages," President of the Marketing Firm Yankelovich, Jay Walker-Smith said. "Everywhere we turn we’re saturated with advertising messages trying to get our attention." Walker-Smith has said we’ve gone from being exposed to about 500 ads a day back in the 1970’s to as many as 5,000 a day today. "It seems like the goal of most marketers and advertisers nowadays is to cover every blank space with some kind of brand logo or a promotion or an advertisement," Walker-Smith said. Marketers have found a way to use parking stripes, postage stamps and floors, even buses and buildings, like a target ad which practically engulfs an entire New York city block. Walker-Smith says it’s all an assault on the senses.”

So, how do we combat these invasions? By consciously reprogramming and overriding the trash that clamors for our attention. The constant tugging to buy this or that, to join this or that, to be this or that, is just another way the ego deceives us into thinking that having is happiness. Having isn’t good or bad: it’s simply
neutral. The difficulty arises when we think that arrival at a certain point or having certain things will result in perfect peace.

"Peace is what happens when we are content as we are in the present moment."

The secret is that when we vibrate the emotion of contentment, we attract more external conditions that amplify the inner condition. Contentment is a discovery, not an accomplishment. No running or purchasing is required. The moment all those limiting thoughts and ideas are dissolved, you’ve freed up your mental hard drive.

"My question has always been, why don’t we simply reprogram ourselves with the code needed to break the old conditioning that has us running around like rats in a maze?"

When we combine meditation and new subliminal instructions, we soon find the old messages dissolving. Meditation clears up space so that you can fit new instructions onto your mental hard drive and become the conscious creator of a new mind and body. Now you are free at last!

Reflections from Turtle Lake,

Peter




That email newletter just came today, but it is amazingly close to the thoughts I have been having with myself over the past few months, and the things I am working on with my trading right now.

Aside from what my psychological excercies are, even market movement can be referred to as "noise", and that can bombard a trader when they pay too close attention as I did for so long. It can cause one to forget what to believe in.

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Closing before the electronic close. I never have liked the idea of that 15 minutes of anything can happen.

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Out 96.67

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josh View Post
GaryD, happy to see you posting.

This has no risk for me to post, so I will consider it sim speculating The support at 96 was very expected, as this was the fairest price over the last week+ (yellow highlighted area). Buyers found there, no problem. Interestingly, you can also see 97 was rejected last week both from the upside and downside (highlighted blue box), and it was rejected again today, and you took the short. The most natural place to search for buyers again will be 96. However, if there is enough demand here, and 97 fails to reject to the downside, my expectation would be for 97.60, a major area of acceptance last week, to be auctioned for sellers. So if I were GaryD, and if I had a free short trade on, I would leave it, for the potential that exists, or cut it if I didn't want to watch it. But if I were GaryD, I would personally not have a stop any higher than today's highs, expecting 97.40-97.80 to trade before any real sellers are found.

I know you will not let any of this create a bias, so that's why I'm posting, as it's fun to do so for a product I do not normally trade



OK, now I really read it. Yes, I was trying to decide if I really was looking for a swing trade, where my stop would be, and where I had it was not it. But, I had not really done any research on where it should be.

Josh, I never really got into POC very deep, so your number may be perfect, but I would never know. Someday I may still dig into that more, and I can see where a volume ladder view would maybe be beneficial to my own take on VSA.


Last edited by GaryD; February 5th, 2013 at 08:46 PM.
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Never went back in, but still interested.

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