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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #361 (permalink)
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You are a lion in Africa. You eat other animals. Each one has a certain weight, maximum running speed, number of population, intelligence. The same data exists for you as the lion. And statistically you could determine your odds of eating or starving.

I spent some time in Africa, and never did find a lion with a calculator. Never heard of a lion running a hedge fund. But saw some fat and lazy lions.


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Last edited by GaryD; March 15th, 2013 at 01:07 AM. Reason: more appropriate photo
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2005 with my good friend Chris.

Questionable sanity, incredible depth to his thinking, undeniable transparency, salmon fishing in Alaska August 2013.


Goes by the name "Tuna Can" on Facebook. Freak. lol!!


And I emailed this permalink to him.


Last edited by GaryD; March 15th, 2013 at 01:46 AM.
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Oh how I wish I had saved his email to me from who knows where in Africa; hitchhiking his way for over a year from south to north, living in a room in a brothel at that time, recovering from malaria (2nd time), his past Peace Corps partner just recently faked his identity...

Good time Mr. Tuna Can, if in fact that is your real name.


Last edited by GaryD; March 15th, 2013 at 01:59 AM.
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josh View Post
My question about your long is this--when you saw the high volume come in (that you circled), were you already thinking that you should be long? If so, why not buy right then?

No, I was thinking there was structure that supported long. I was not thinking about even entering a trade until I saw the spike, and then the reversal. There is this common mindset that we are watching becasue we are suppossed to take a trade. What if we were watching and just decided to take a trade?




josh View Post
If the fairest price is 92.80, and you can buy at a discount of 92.70, why not do so, and why instead buy above the fairest price at 92.84?


"Fairest" meaning what? And yes, believe it or not I finally broke down and think I know what the term means. Broke down as in ego.

How long does "fairest" exist? It is a reference point. To further clarify, it is a reference point. What does it have to do with whether the market is most likely to go up or down at that exact moment?

On the other hand, what I tried to show in that chart did offer what I was looking for. Probability.


Last edited by GaryD; March 15th, 2013 at 01:44 AM.
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We spend so much study in the pursuit of perfecting our trade that we ignore what makes trading succesful;

#1 - What is happening?

#2 - What, as a result of #1, is most like to happen next?

#3a - If the odds of the net of #2 are only 25%, is your target at least 8x risk?

#3b - If the odds of #2 are 80%, are you comfortable with the thought of 1.2x risk to 1x reward?

#3c - If you answered yes to #3a or #3b, do you have the patience to prove it after you are in the trade?


And if you really get this post, you are closer than most.



Oh, and manage risk according to your account size. But even that does nothing without the above.


Last edited by GaryD; March 15th, 2013 at 01:48 AM.
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I will say at this point, that I like volume, market profile, VWAP, HOD/LOD, "other's" stop placement consideration (and/or confirmation of a lack of, or confirmation of the existence of and yet the reactionary movement in conflict), as a second place to the last post.

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understanding
order to chaos
expectancy
risk
patience
belief
faith
acceptance
tenacity
zen
confidence
fun

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1am. Melissa STILL sick. Slept on the couch with a dog that will not take no for an answer since Sunday. Tired. 3 beers, 1 glass of wine. Heavy work schedule. And typing this just caused me to release it all Or most of it. Sigh, shoulders dropped, became aware of what I was doing,

remembred the accountability because this is open to the world. OK, so that is the worst that is going to happen... fear of failure. Not just failure, everyone knows about it. Anyone.

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By "therein resided exactness" I guess you mean at the circled area, 92.70?

YES

But you said a couple of posts ago that "at 92.70 it was anybody's close" --

CORRECT. IN THAT MINUTE BAR, YES. AND IN THE MINUTE BARS THAT PRECEDED THAT ONE.



and definitely it was almost ruled out, but nothing's for sure,

RIGHT. "ALMOST" IS IN THE REALM OF HIGH PROBABILITY. NO NUMBER IN THE WORLD WILL SAVE YOU.



and for me anyway, I like 100% probabilities much more than 90% ones by nature

JOIN THE CLUB


But in trading I have to live in a much lower realm than even 90%.

YOU ARE HELPING MY ARGUMENT

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