Like a turtle to his balcony... - futures io
futures io futures trading



Like a turtle to his balcony...


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated by GaryD
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one GaryD with 1,625 posts (688 thanks)
    2. looks_two josh with 67 posts (106 thanks)
    3. looks_3 greenr with 51 posts (53 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Deucalion with 28 posts (77 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Deucalion with 2.8 thanks per post
    2. looks_two josh with 1.6 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 greenr with 1.0 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 GaryD with 0.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 144,046 views
    2. thumb_up 1,158 thanks given
    3. group 36 followers
    1. forum 1,905 replies
    2. attach_file 1,043 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 100,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Like a turtle to his balcony...

(login for full post details)
  #341 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Slow, very boring day. I "knew" this morning that 92 was the place, but between not feeling right with market profile, my computer acting weak, not having slept much all week, etc, I allowed uncertainty to get the better of me.

My guess is Ryan held that trade...


NT did not calculate P&L right...

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Chart on TV, what platform is best for swing order entries?
Traders Hideout
Historical option expirations
Brokers
Market Replay and Fills (Denali data)
Sierra Chart
Order Data Export Plugin-- Is it possible?
NinjaTrader
Thanksgiving 2020 Fundraiser - lets be grateful!
Feedback and Announcements
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #342 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

NT calculates a different P&L if "Group Trade by ATM Strategy" is selected. WTF?

Attached Thumbnails
Like a turtle to his balcony...-document.pdf  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #343 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011



GaryD View Post



Intense concentration at 92.80


Going back to this, I believe today part of my confirmation was this profile shape to trade long into the close. Nearly all of the volume was below the POC, with above the POC basically a flat line. In my view "out of balance", with shorts above POC stuck.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #344 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,465 received

Nice job at the close Gary. I am long ES and also "hoping" (the word which has no place in trading) that we will see the all-time s&p close touched today -- got 3 points shy of it this morning and hard to believe they won't try again but hey, these are crazy markets and anything can happen. I'll wish for a little of that bullish crude action to rub off so I can get my target

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #345 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


josh View Post
Nice job at the close Gary. I am long ES and also "hoping" (the word which has no place in trading) that we will see the all-time s&p close touched today -- got 3 points shy of it this morning and hard to believe they won't try again but hey, these are crazy markets and anything can happen. I'll wish for a little of that bullish crude action to rub off so I can get my target

This is a major switch for me this year, but I do not watch anything but crude anymore. I might pull up a chart after hours, but during live trade there is nothing else going on but CL. I used to try to get some correlation advantage and constantly monitor ES and 6E, and that did sometimes work well, but I decided I can see whatever I need to see in the market I am trading. Correlation comes and goes, adding to what Dalton I think called "cognitive dissonance" (great advice in my opinion).

The only way I knew equities were at their highs was from the headlines. lol!

What is your thought on the profile shape I mentioned? Would you feel the same?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #346 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


josh View Post
I am long ES and also "hoping" (the word which has no place in trading) that we will see the all-time s&p close touched today -- got 3 points shy of it this morning and hard to believe they won't try again...

You know how people can't stop themselves from shorting that. I'd bet long too, but where and when I don't know.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #347 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Even though it was simulated, that was not an ES "trade", it was a gamble. Removing it.

The CNBC trade was a joke, this was tapping into a vibe that has no place here. Making it ok to enter on a whim or just to see what happens is not where I am headed. Sorry Josh.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #348 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

The mouse is not there to play with.


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #349 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Tonight I have performance anxiety. I never thought of it as that, but I get it quite often. It happens when I am "up" but concerned that I won't stay that way.

And now back to trading.

"Quit while you are ahead". "Go into the weekend with a winning day". "Protect your profits".

Fear-based rules. Things I have taught myself to do, or was taught by others to do, but now question.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #350 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,465 received



GaryD View Post
What is your thought on the profile shape I mentioned? Would you feel the same?

If you mean post 343, then yes it makes sense. But earlier you mentioned about short covering. This is a Dalton thing (I think) and I do not really subscribe to it, though I do see some of the logic in it. In his theory, a short covering profile like this (which, given that probably several were short from the last two prior days) means more downside to come. But the way it finished, I don't think it would qualify, since there was range extension up at the close, but maybe I'm wrong. Either way, that way of thinking does not factor into my decisions very much, if at all. Maybe I'm biased against it because it's so pattern recognition oriented; I see people everywhere talking about 'B' and 'p' and 'b' shaped profiles, and it kind of turns me off. I have seen too many counter examples to put much faith in labeling a 'p' profile after a down day a "short covering rally."

But in post 343 you said that "nearly all the volume was below the POC" when in fact nearly all the volume was within about 10 ticks higher and 20 ticks lower than the POC. I think what you mean is that there is a long tail below the big fat distribution centered around 92.80. In the graphic below, you can see that D, E, and F period lows were all around the A period high. The open was a few ticks off the low, and the fact that A was never again traded indicates a very strong demand. Competition was high for prices below 92.60, and you only got them if you took the small window of opportunity that existed for only a few minutes at the open. Competition means low volume and small windows of time, just like when something is on sale, it doesn't last long because inventory is bought and prices go back to normal.

An open that low near the LOD, D, E, and F not being able to get lower, and value established higher means it is VERY unlikely (in my book, maybe 10%) that a low like that will be revisited again in the day. So, all a good recipe for an auction higher to see if more value can be found up there. It was a good play, great job getting in there.


Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Like a turtle to his balcony...


August 5, 2013


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

Bookmap

Nov TBD
     



Copyright © 2020 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts