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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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  #201 (permalink)
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CL is fighting to hold the 92 low.



A lot of whipsaw consolidation.




A moment of clarity; while that is what I used to despise about crude oil, I am not surprised, frustrated, upset, confused, thinking crude is schizo, etc. Today, it just is. Volatiltiy is opportunity, and crude is much slower to me today than years ago. And more predictable.

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  #202 (permalink)
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What IS frustrating to me, is trying to get anything of value out of the volume ladder. But today, for the first time ever, but only for a few minutes, I saw something there. That is mildly encouraging.

Wait, why are the bars not aligned with the ladder? There are several things over the last few days telling me something is majorly wrong with my computer. This could be an indicator bug, and if this was the only issue...

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  #203 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
GDP
8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET

Since you are now putting these news items on your radar, a little info:

GDP should be a particularly interesting number tomorrow, with the Advance # last time being negative and throwing everyone for a loop. Anything in the negative to 0.1 or 0.2% range would be IMO a shocker (to the downside), as everyone thinks the -0.1% was very much a lowball figure. Anything 0.3% or above is expected, at least from my point of view.

Just for your own notes, if you are not aware, Chicago PMI is released 3 minutes early to subscribers at 9:42am, and often we get a reaction then if there is a surprise (not so much at 9:45 with the embargo release as market already has the number at this point).

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index -- never heard of it, and nobody cares about this number. Slight ditto for Kansas City Fed number, though if it's a big surprise it may get a little attention. As far as the manufacturing numbers go, Dallas Fed and Empire State can garner some attention, but Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing numbers are pretty much non-events. The Philly Fed number and ISM PMI are the biggest manufacturing numbers to watch out for.

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  #204 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post



What IS frustrating to me, is trying to get anything of value out of the volume ladder. But today, for the first time ever, but only for a few minutes, I saw something there. That is mildly encouraging.

Wait, why are the bars not aligned with the ladder? There are several things over the last few days telling me something is majorly wrong with my computer. This could be an indicator bug, and if this was the only issue...

Re load and down load data

I get this every day

This is why I hate ninja trader

It never works like it should, I spend half my morning making sure every thing is correct

Grrrrrr

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #205 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Since you are now putting these news items on your radar, a little info:

GDP should be a particularly interesting number tomorrow, with the Advance # last time being negative and throwing everyone for a loop. Anything in the negative to 0.1 or 0.2% range would be IMO a shocker (to the downside), as everyone thinks the -0.1% was very much a lowball figure. Anything 0.3% or above is expected, at least from my point of view.

Just for your own notes, if you are not aware, Chicago PMI is released 3 minutes early to subscribers at 9:42am, and often we get a reaction then if there is a surprise (not so much at 9:45 with the embargo release as market already has the number at this point).

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index -- never heard of it, and nobody cares about this number. Slight ditto for Kansas City Fed number, though if it's a big surprise it may get a little attention. As far as the manufacturing numbers go, Dallas Fed and Empire State can garner some attention, but Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing numbers are pretty much non-events. The Philly Fed number and ISM PMI are the biggest manufacturing numbers to watch out for.

Thanks Josh.

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  #206 (permalink)
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1:37AM, Friday, Never went to bed, talking with my wife, tv on, charts running in the corner of the room. Background color is white now, not black, and it casts this glow that is hard to walk by without looking.

Minor DPTL below possible washout caught within 10 ticks, on a background of new-equity-high rance correlative divergence, into the CL pit close reversal failure, blew out LOD prior significant support, 1pm volume head fake. Daily VWAP has been responding very well. IB on CL changed. Trading feeling good, calm, clear, fun.

% wins looking like 70%+ this week, great RR, great PF, cannot find a complaint in the performance report so far, maybe that I still often bail too early, but what I am also seeing is there are equal number of times that early profit taking works for me, but it is beyond backtesting because there is to much to have to program, and of equal importance, personal mindset.

Enjoying CL analysis thread, still feeling awkward about it though.

If that mDPTL becomes the brick wall... trading never lets you put your guard down.

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  #207 (permalink)
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... it casts this glow that is hard to walk by without looking.

.
.
.

If that mDPTL becomes the brick wall... trading never lets you put your guard down.


This something I have thought about:

I want to be a trader but I don;t want trading to be a cat and mouse game.

It should be more like a Pop n Mom store monopoly where you dictate the terms and customers (trades) keep flocking to you even if you have irregular timings and curt checkout girls. :-)

However that entails longer timeframes and bigger stops.

Being a rich trader should mean lots of time on hands - not simply having a pile of cash which you watch fluctuate tick by tick.

Does that make sense?

I often seek your guidance in my replies and this is one of those posts.

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  #208 (permalink)
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Very solid week. My performance numbers were much better, my level of calm and clarity very high, found myself laughing many times. I am still not holding for my targets like I think I should, but my targets also fail, and I am holding longer when the timing seems right, so nothing much to complain about this week. Good risk management, good timing, patience was not even a consideration, it just existed.

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Like a turtle to his balcony...-week-2-25-thru-3-1-13.pdf   Like a turtle to his balcony...-daily.pdf   Like a turtle to his balcony...-trades.pdf  
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  #209 (permalink)
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iqgod View Post
This something I have thought about:

I want to be a trader but I don;t want trading to be a cat and mouse game.

It should be more like a Pop n Mom store monopoly where you dictate the terms and customers (trades) keep flocking to you even if you have irregular timings and curt checkout girls. :-)

However that entails longer timeframes and bigger stops.

Being a rich trader should mean lots of time on hands - not simply having a pile of cash which you watch fluctuate tick by tick.

Does that make sense?

I often seek your guidance in my replies and this is one of those posts.


You know I have gone through issues with uncertainty, risk vs reward, value of time spent, importance of money, long swings versus scalps, having a job versus trading, all things you are questioning now. I have formed opinions about some of those things, then changed them, then maybe later changed them back or different again.

You also know that I gave up trading for awhile, could not take the pressure of trying to maintain running a business and studying / trading 24/7. And in that time I did not care if I ever took another trade. And that was not the first time I did not care if I traded again.

What I can say is different for me today is that I gave up trying to make complete sense of it, gave up trying to perfect it, gave up trying to knoww what is about to happen, gave up looking at my account balance, gave up thinking how much I could make if I did this or that.

What if you never did make any real money trading? Would you enjoy it then? Can you laugh at yourself, I mean genuine spontaneous laughter, when your stop gets hit?

There is no one-size-fits-all answer. You need to figure out where you belong in the mix, or if you even do. I know that I have gone back and forth on that decision, but am seeing today that the swing back and forth has to do with things that have no place in trading. Think on that.

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  #210 (permalink)
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For later review

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  #211 (permalink)
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In talking to another trader here, someone in their first year, and trying to put the pursuit of "learning to trade" or getting a "trading education", into a nutshell, I came up with this thought; Succesful trading requires one to experience many things that cannot be taught but must be learned.

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  #212 (permalink)
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In talking to another trader here, someone in their first year, and trying to put the pursuit of "learning to trade" or getting a "trading education", into a nutshell, I came up with this thought; Succesful trading requires one to experience many things that cannot be taught but must be learned.

How about: A successful trader is a trader who has already made all the mistakes.

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  #213 (permalink)
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How about: A successful trader is a trader who has already made all the mistakes.

Mike

It's a long list, but it gets shorter.

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  #214 (permalink)
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When I first decided to be a trader I was brave and optimistic. I freely told friends and family that I was going to learn to daytrade, and about 50% of them even said, "you know, never thought about that, but you would be great...". I was proud of it maybe even, because it seemed somewhat like intelligence and hard work meets the X-games.

Later, it became something awkward to talk about. Catching up with people, having a drink, "How is your trading going?", they would ask. And the answer changed over time, ran one direction or the other for awhile.

Then it progressed to being able to say I was doing it. And calling myself a "trader" was something to be proud of maybe even. I can look back at my first post here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and see where I was in that process. But you may learn how to make money here, or survive here, or catch some good rides, but overconfidence is the next sin. The next part I would prefer not to describe, but it is not fun.

Today I am enjoying trading, and hoping I do not even think about the money. It felt this past week like a few guys getting together to play some game. The rules are not that complictated; take what you know, apply it, share it, and figure out how it works together.

We had a birthday party at the house I am renting, and I opened the house up. Fireplace burning, house speakers set low. The house did not really have an extra room, but the main area is large and my trade desk is currently front and center. I am happy to sit at it and offer to play it like a piano if anyone willing to see will watch, and at least 9 of 10 politely decline.

Tonight, a neigbor had owned Apple stock as it fell off a cliff, and I sat down with her to look at basic chart structure. And as we later went through the residual talk, I was proud of it maybe even, because it seemed somewhat like intelligence and hard work meets the X-games.

The world moves in cycles. What was will be again, what is will cease to be, and the only constant is change. But even in that there is probability. And Market Profile fits that way of thinking.

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  #215 (permalink)
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Fin-algo ended, going to try one week without. New screen layout. Using GomMP, added Gom delta volume on ladder.

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  #217 (permalink)
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It is not my job to know what the market is going to do. It is my job to know what I am going to do if the market does x.

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  #218 (permalink)
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What I can say is different for me today is that I gave up trying to make complete sense of it

Gary, this is has been dawning on me for a few months now and as a result the challenge appears much more straight forward. Thanks for your journal, I love your perspective.

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  #219 (permalink)
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Today's price action was down, but it wedged itself into major support, psychologically locking me out of trading. I started to scalp and realized I should quit. There are better conditions than that.

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  #220 (permalink)
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I allowed myself to get shaken out of a long entry today. Not that I was taking heat, but I had lost my confidence in the trade going forward. Caught the bottom of a hard move down, but had been wrong once already for the day. I tend to be more interested in scalping back my loss than taking a true win sometimes, and today was one of those.

I am being very selective about my trades, feeling very calm about them, making money, no large losses, good numbers overall... and even with all of that, something like what I did today has been running trough my mind off and on for the past 5 hours. I'd almost rather get stopped out than have my confidence fail.

Price had come down into deep support, this time being a cocktail of some favorite numbers; Major 618, Major trendline, Major pivot area, and XFib2, all within a 30 cent range. The only thing more I could have asked for was the exact mindset I neeeded in that moment. I bought around 89.45ish, then jumped out to think. I was not looking for a long distance trade, I was looking to get positive on the day. I know the saying, "Be careful what you ask for", but had momentary amnesia from being shaken too hard.





I have been stalking a reversal for at least a week now, 5 entries today, all from the long side. I joke with myself that it is because my chart backgrounds have all been changed to white recently. Ryan Green was trading short on Friday, I was all long, his charts were black, mine were white, it wwas almost like we were synchronized. Classic.

I like the white background better, it just feels happier. Tougher to read sometimes (I need a new color for XFIBs, most things actually. Black is the best for contrast), but keeping the mood up is worth it. Black charts seemed to get very hypnotic after awhile.

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  #221 (permalink)
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mokodo View Post
Gary, this is has been dawning on me for a few months now and as a result the challenge appears much more straight forward. Thanks for your journal, I love your perspective.


The secret to being succesful at many things is just the ability to be comfortable in our own skin. Not be be right often, or to win most of the time, or to achieve some definition of perfection, or strive for certainty, but just to have faith in our own decisions. I learn to have faith in mine by trial and error, and am seeing that the majority of errors are not the end of the world. Believeing they are might be though.

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  #222 (permalink)
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I just had some insight into why trading cannot be completely taught. I try to do it. Many traders on this site try to do it. But, it has more to do with our own progression. Once a trader thinks they can teach another something, they have experienced "knowing" in some capacity. That is a very special "spice" in the trader's gumbo, and without that final ingredient, many plans will fail.

The one who learns the most from teaching is possibly the teacher, forced to take a step back, digest, and explain what they believe is their edge.

Developing confidence allows a trader to execute what they believe in. If you believe it, you prove it by allowing the trade room to develop, by taking the entries and exits as you feel you should. And that experience is part of what cannot be taught but must be learned.

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  #223 (permalink)
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The secret to being succesful at many things is just the ability to be comfortable in our own skin. Not be be right often, or to win most of the time, or to achieve some definition of perfection, or strive for certainty, but just to have faith in our own decisions. I learn to have faith in mine by trial and error, and am seeing that the majority of errors are not the end of the world. Believeing they are might be though.

Thought I'd follow up on these comments if I may. Trading has opened a door to understanding myself in way that my past life never could. I was a bit shocked and embarrassed about my faults if I am being honest. I realised I was emotionally immature. The 'keys' to trading all seemed out of my reach. I would just think (and often act) like a spoiled child with no perspective. And of course realising that was a big step forward in itself - and I went about trying to address it.

I've learned I need practical, tactical tricks to help get desired thought and behaviour patterns ingrained. My 'Stone Of Life' is one such tool. (Took this idea from the Chimp Paradox by Dr Steve Peters). This relates to my core beliefs on my whole life, not just to trading.

TolerAnce - there's room in this world for everyone
Big - don't sweat the small stuff, focus on the big pieces
Luck - I'm lucky to be here at all, and luck plays a big a part in things as much as any other factor
ChoicE - I always have a choice to how I feel, think and act
Time - smooths out everything

So I think TABLET and recall these things immediately. It has helped in my life and my trading enormously. I can snap out of negative self-talk (I have a choice about that self-talk after all), I allow luck into my understanding, my stop got pinged by a spike, it happens, it's not necessarily my 'bad' stop placement, a bad day will be forgotten in time, just how 'important' will it seem in a week, a month, a year? All of this is nudging me to just be more grown up and relaxed about life in general. And my trading is improving as a result.

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mokodo View Post
Thought I'd follow up on these comments if I may. Trading has opened a door to understanding myself in way that my past life never could. I was a bit shocked and embarrassed about my faults if I am being honest. I realised I was emotionally immature. The 'keys' to trading all seemed out of my reach. I would just think (and often act) like a spoiled child with no perspective. And of course realising that was a big step forward in itself - and I went about trying to address it.

I've learned I need practical, tactical tricks to help get desired thought and behaviour patterns ingrained. My 'Stone Of Life' is one such tool. (Took this idea from the Chimp Paradox by Dr Steve Peters). This relates to my core beliefs on my whole life, not just to trading.

TolerAnce - there's room in this world for everyone
Big - don't sweat the small stuff, focus on the big pieces
Luck - I'm lucky to be here at all, and luck plays a big a part in things as much as any other factor
ChoicE - I always have a choice to how I feel, think and act
Time - smooths out everything

So I think TABLET and recall these things immediately. It has helped in my life and my trading enormously. I can snap out of negative self-talk (I have a choice about that self-talk after all), I allow luck into my understanding, my stop got pinged by a spike, it happens, it's not necessarily my 'bad' stop placement, a bad day will be forgotten in time, just how 'important' will it seem in a week, a month, a year? All of this is nudging me to just be more grown up and relaxed about life in general. And my trading is improving as a result.

" realised I was emotionally immature. The 'keys' to trading all seemed out of my reach. I would just think (and often act) like a spoiled child with no perspective. And of course realising that was a big step forward in itself - and I went about trying to address it."

The whole post was great, but just highlighting this as an example. That direction shows that you are making true progress.

Obviously trading is about chart patterns and indicators and probabilities and sentiment and timing and all that stuff. But that is only half of the puzzle. The remainder deals with self-understanding, and that is where it can really get complicated, require patience and honesty. You are headed in the right direction.

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  #225 (permalink)
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Just got my orders, leave for Austin TX within the next 24 hours. Going to miss EIA this week... Not interested in hauling monitors any more.

Maybe I won't even look?

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  #226 (permalink)
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I closed a trade way too early again today. This seems to be the bad habit of choice lately. I need to spend some time thinking about where that feeling really comes from.

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  #227 (permalink)
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10pm Austin, I would rather study a chart than watch television. The major support zone held again, this time with a minor local double bottom. I did not get to see it happen, so cannot feel the force of the movement, but the area of 89.00-89.60 is now a major point of significance.

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A friend sent me a link to some porn as a joke (in response to my turtle video). When I opened his video, another window popped up behind it. I did not see it until I had closed some other things and did not realize there was someone there trying to talk to me. It was a girl named "Claire". This is the entire conversation;


Claire: are you still there?

Claire: answer baby...

Claire: is this working?

Guest: yes

Claire: so what are you looking for?

Guest: The direction of the oil market

Claire: im from Austin, do you live close enough to pop by?

Guest: sure, let's have a cappucino on Sunday

Claire: Ahh, thats a shame. Awsome. I am up for pretty much anything right now

Guest: Well, if you're up for "anything", my recommendation is to watch the area between ##.#0 and #0.00 for WTI. If we break above ##.#0, buy.

Claire: By anything I mean you can stick it anywhere! you want to private message me your email?

Guest: I do not understand why these prices are not showing up. This is serious information. Eighty-nine-forty to ninety for support, and a break above ninety-one twenty, BUY!

Claire: suit yourself. my profile is: https://www.upforit.com/Austin/Claire

Guest: Thanks, you can find me on futures.io (formerly BMT)

Claire: Add me as a friend




Well Claire, if you get here and send me a friend request, consider it done.

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  #229 (permalink)
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And just before I closed the window to get some sleep, I continued our debate on the direction of oil;

Guest: I gave you a red carpet invitation at futures.io (formerly BMT).

Claire: would you fuck a slut like me?

Guest: probably not

Claire: I bet you wouldnt say that if I was going down on you! I just want a real man to tie me up and ...

Guest: set you on the curb?

Claire: back in 5 mins, just add me on UpForIt so we can chat more



Sorry Claire.

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  #230 (permalink)
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Now, that is something to look at....

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  #231 (permalink)
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And just before I closed the window to get some sleep, I continued our debate on the direction of oil;

Guest: I gave you a red carpet invitation at futures.io (formerly BMT).

Claire: would you fuck a slut like me?

Guest: probably not

Claire: I bet you wouldnt say that if I was going down on you! I just want a real man to tie me up and ...

Guest: set you on the curb?

Claire: back in 5 mins, just add me on UpForIt so we can chat more



Sorry Claire.

Ha Ha funny stuff lol

Take it the porno algo didnt give you the awnser about Oil you wanted he he

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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greenr View Post
Ha Ha funny stuff lol

Take it the porno algo didnt give you the awnser about Oil you wanted he he


No, she was not interested in my conversation topic. Truthfully, I'd prefer to watch the turtles.


I saw you and I were on opposite sides again today. We should trade in the same room some day.

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  #233 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
No, she was not interested in my conversation topic. Truthfully, I'd prefer to watch the turtles.


I saw you and I were on opposite sides again today. We should trade in the same room some day.

LoL well i sold it down to ETH vwap

covered when i saw all the buying absorbtion

Then took a long from there......

The fact we ran into that ETH rising vwap and held it with buying absorbtion

ETH vwap become the line in the sand for the day and becomes a good target and trade area for the day

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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greenr View Post
LoL well i sold it down to ETH vwap

covered when i saw all the buying absorbtion

Then took a long from there......

The fact we ran into that ETH rising vwap and held it with buying absorbtion

ETH vwap become the line in the sand for the day and becomes a good target and trade area for the day


I am on the road, missed EIA entirely yesterday, and having to trade when time allows. It makes it tough, and many trades I simply have to pass on as it is very difficult to make a trade work on my schedule.

I saw the open out of balance above the recent days MP, but had been watching that base of support form for about a week now, and by the time I was ready for the RTH session, was not about to short what might have been a runaway market. You have all day to make it up, I didn't, and I have seen crude impulse right through everyone at a gap open like that.

Today the short worked, and maybe some day with more MP-based trades I might be there with you, but I was long only until proven wrong (which might still have resulted in a losing day) but one I would feel ok about. In contrast, had I gone short at the open and been stopped out, that would seem like I still needed to learn that lesson.


I entered a bit early, and let it run about 30 ticks in my favor, then come back on me. I was ready to close, but was pretty sure the market would catch it. I went in again at the ETH VWAP also.

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Other responsibilities with jobs in NJ, MD and TX left me little time for trading this week. Trying to trade around another schedule is tough to do, but I have done it long enough now that I realize better when I can and can't. Many times I must pass on a trade that I might otherwise take, or get out of a trade that I might otherwise stay in. That bothered me before, but not now for some reason. Maybe as another trader, @mokodo, mentioned recently, we progress through another range of maturity as traders, one that does not have much initially apparent relationship to our maturity on any other level. But, also as was mentioned, that distinction between the two starts to blur eventually, and out of it, as our trading maturity is forced to progress, we realize benefits outside of trading.

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I have been studying POC, did some web searches, played with the indicator to see what all variables do. I read that 80% of the time the prior day's POC is hit, and the yellow highlights above show the times that it did not occur. Out of 21 days, the prior day's POC was only missed 4 of them.

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  #237 (permalink)
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Price does not exist. Value exists. Some days stops are tight as I decide to question value. Other times stops are generous as I am following other's value.

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GaryD View Post
Price does not exist.

Sure it does, it just doesn't have to be the same as value. When the two get very out of line, often this is when the best opportunities exist. Price is the mechanism the market uses to advertise to attract buyers and sellers, but value is what has been agreed upon as fair.

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josh View Post
Sure it does, it just doesn't have to be the same as value. When the two get very out of line, often this is when the best opportunities exist. Price is the mechanism the market uses to advertise to attract buyers and sellers, but value is what has been agreed upon as fair.

This is an entirely new way of thinking for me. I want to understand it better.

Picking the correct entry is the hard part for me.

As you know I typically wait too long for that confirmation and pay full price which only allows me to scalp for 10.

How do I gain the confidence to see these areas of fair value?

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #240 (permalink)
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Performance numbers dropped some from last week. I had to fly to Austin Wednesday morning, so missed a day, and then traded in a hotel room when I had time. Not the best situation, and so reading the numbers from that perspective I should allow myself some slack.

Still having issues with allowing trades to run, though this week somewhat induced by the fact that I had to leave the computer for meetings. On the positive side, my willingness to hold has gone up. Cannot prove it by numbers but I feel it. Maybe next week will be calm and I can focus on that issue with some real determination.

Made it a week without the fin-algo. The gom profile does everything I need, I think, but there was something cool about seeing the letters... Especially from a summary view. Still on the fence. Looked at Sierra Charts but did not download. Still concerened about my computer's resources, never did determine the cause of the recent blue screen. But Sierra I believe has MP built in.

Sitting here watching the afternoon shuffle push price up. I thought about another long trade this afternoon, but just was not into it. I have somewhat lost the desire to sit and stare at a market once I am ready to stop for the day. Possibly that is of greater value than I give it credit.

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Patrick S View Post
This is an entirely new way of thinking for me. I want to understand it better.

Picking the correct entry is the hard part for me.

As you know I typically wait too long for that confirmation and pay full price which only allows me to scalp for 10.

How do I gain the confidence to see these areas of fair value?

By deciding that is what you are going to do.


It is not going to come quickly, just as if you were 400 pounds and wanted to get down to 175. One day at a time, learn something each day.

Keep in mind, as complex as it can get, there are only two choices; up, or down. All of the things you may study will give some insight as to where and when and how far, but ultimately there is no complete guide book, you have to fill in the blanks for yourself, and that takes dedication and experience.

If you are wanting to get your "degree" in trading, there are many courses you can choose, but you have to get your required hours in, with a good balanced education in several key areas. Some I would recommend;

1) Wave Structure
2) Value Structure
3) Volume
4) Risk vs Reward
5) Probability
6) Psychology


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  #243 (permalink)
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I'm going to give you some very simple examples, feel free to make up your own versions.



Patrick S View Post
Picking the correct entry is the hard part for me.

In simulation, assuming you will trade crude, set an ATM stop to 15 ticks and profit target to 15 ticks. Practice making entries until your percenatge wins rises to at least 65%.



Patrick S View Post
As you know I typically wait too long for that confirmation and pay full price which only allows me to scalp for 10.

In simulation, practice changing your definition of "confirmation". Let the prior day's action determine the direection you are looking to trade in, and then wait for a pullback. Or, find an area where a market has pushed too far and enter on a break in the unexpected direction. Learn from what works for you. Your mind will interpret the "correct" points in a way that may need to be altered.


Patrick S View Post
How do I gain the confidence to see these areas of fair value?

Markets often turn at anticipated areas. Learn to expect support or resistance (Market Profile, Wave Structure, Stop Placement). become very familiar with volume, what it looks like where the turns occur. A volume ladder or a 1m volume chart will work. I also use Time & Sales to gauge the speed of the tape.



Patrick S View Post
This is an entirely new way of thinking for me.

And it will need to be, for some time. Relax, be open to it.

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Patrick S View Post
How do I gain the confidence to see these areas of fair value?

@Patrick S, here's a chart of Thursday's CL trade. Can you use a drawing tool and highlight what you visually think are the most fair prices ("most fair" meaning, where you think the bulk, however you want to define it, of trading occurred)?



Secondly, from your charts I normally see, you are very zoomed in. Try taking a 10 minute chart, use the crude pit session only (get rid of everything but 9am to 2:30pm), and zoom out to where you can see the last 12 trading days, and use an aspect ratio that is not too squashed. Put a vertical line between the sessions so each day is visible. Post that chart if you will.

@GaryD, tell me if you want me to discuss this offline, this is your turf.

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josh View Post
@Patrick S, here's a chart of Thursday's CL trade. Can you use a drawing tool and highlight what you visually think are the most fair prices ("most fair" meaning, where you think the bulk, however you want to define it, of trading occurred)?



Secondly, from your charts I normally see, you are very zoomed in. Try taking a 10 minute chart, use the crude pit session only (get rid of everything but 9am to 2:30pm), and zoom out to where you can see the last 12 trading days, and use an aspect ratio that is not too squashed. Put a vertical line between the sessions so each day is visible. Post that chart if you will.

@GaryD, tell me if you want me to discuss this offline, this is your turf.

@Patrick S, take advantage of this. Succesful traders are not always here for you to ride on. We cannot be, because ego plays a big role in success.

@josh, I had a thread about me, this one is about whatever, but there is reason it is on futures.io (formerly BMT). If this thread could be anything, why not a breeding ground?

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  #246 (permalink)
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Patrick S View Post
This is an entirely new way of thinking for me. I want to understand it better.

Picking the correct entry is the hard part for me.

As you know I typically wait too long for that confirmation and pay full price which only allows me to scalp for 10.

How do I gain the confidence to see these areas of fair value?

I am not a profitable trader, so my comments don't mean very much, but this is what I'm slowly (very, very slowly) coming to realize. There are no magic bar patterns to enter off of, there are only areas to enter with risk management. Better traders can use volume, order flow, the foot print chart, or whatever as a secondary confirmation, but they only do that at an area that they want to put a trade on in.

My background is in the hard sciences and engineering, so I'm a very black and white kind of cat. I love to calculate and quantify. This stuff is the exact opposite. It's very difficult for me, because I, like you, want an entry pattern. A go/no go signal. Something to take the uncertainty away. The frustration level is very high because it all looks so easy in hind sight.

I feel fortunate that these guys (GaryD, Josh, GreenR, Private Banker, and others) post their trades, comment from time to time on the trades I post, and are willing to answer questions.

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This was still written on my chart from Thursday. I did not add these lines or words b4 I posted this.
Yes @josh the screen shots I show in my journal of the trades I took are scrunched up. However.... I do take a top down approach every morning and draw my lines in on the charts. For instance.

60 min view. Lines are drawn based on high volume s/r.

Another 60m view

5min view

@greenr trade Friday morning. This was I was looking at.
I see your point though.. Yeah I draw in those lines but I think I still lose that perspective when I am only looking at a 3hour stretch.
I need to do a better job of looking at the bigger picture.

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Tiger45 View Post
My background is in the hard sciences and engineering, so I'm a very black and white kind of cat. I love to calculate and quantify.

I was a real estate developer and used spreadsheets for every decision I made. A sample condo deal is attached, just to show what I was used to working with in terms of planning and management.

I cannot tell you how many hours I spent running backtests, exporting to Excel, organizing data... I have literally hundreds of spreadsheets saved in my computer. I grabbed a handful and zip foldered here for fun. And that is about all they were. They did help me as a trader, but only because I did them enough to be over it.

We try to "engineer" a profit. We want a black and white world, something tangible to hang onto. Trading does not offer that, exactly. What it does offer is manageable, to some degree, but not necessarily by spreadsheets of concrete rules.

Getting your mind comfortable with the concept of uncertanity, learning to trust yourself because you have proven to yourself that you should, accepting the fact that you will never know what the outcome will be, not measuring the success in dollars but in how comfortable you feel with it... those are deceptively difficult tasks.

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Tiger45 View Post
I am not a profitable trader, so my comments don't mean very much, but this is what I'm slowly (very, very slowly) coming to realize. There are no magic bar patterns to enter off of, there are only areas to enter with risk management. Better traders can use volume, order flow, the foot print chart, or whatever as a secondary confirmation, but they only do that at an area that they want to put a trade on in.

My background is in the hard sciences and engineering, so I'm a very black and white kind of cat. I love to calculate and quantify. This stuff is the exact opposite. It's very difficult for me, because I, like you, want an entry pattern. A go/no go signal. Something to take the uncertainty away. The frustration level is very high because it all looks so easy in hind sight.

I feel fortunate that these guys (GaryD, Josh, GreenR, Private Banker, and others) post their trades, comment from time to time on the trades I post, and are willing to answer questions.


Some wise trader once said to me, "There are no magic bar patterns to enter off of, there are only areas to enter with risk management. Better traders can use volume, order flow, the foot print chart, or whatever as a secondary confirmation, but they only do that at an area that they want to put a trade on in."


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GaryD View Post
@Patrick S, take advantage of this. Succesful traders are not always here for you to ride on. We cannot be, because ego plays a big role in success.


That sounds worse today than when I wrote it. You'll have to excuse my rough edges. I'd work on them, but with my schedule of work and trading, something has to give.



"... not always here for you to ride on." - Really meaning, here was one that was willing to take the time to look over your trades and charts and give advice. Ride that! See if the advice he gives makes sense to you, emulate his trades in simulation and see if your numbers improve.



"We cannot be, because ego plays a big role in success."
- Or rather, the detachment from ego. It is hard to try to tell someone else what they should and should not do very often, because most of the time we don't know either. But we learn not to be bothered so much by that fact. In fact, I think it is critical that we accept that we know nothing about the future outcome, and act accordingly.

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Patrick S View Post

This was still written on my chart from Thursday. I did not add these lines or words b4 I posted this.
Yes @josh the screen shots I show in my journal of the trades I took are scrunched up. However.... I do take a top down approach every morning and draw my lines in on the charts. For instance.

60 min view. Lines are drawn based on high volume s/r.

Another 60m view

5min view

@greenr trade Friday morning. This was I was looking at.
I see your point though.. Yeah I draw in those lines but I think I still lose that perspective when I am only looking at a 3hour stretch.
I need to do a better job of looking at the bigger picture.

Hide anything that shows your account number, then post a "PRINT SCREEN" image to show exactly what your layout looks like while you are trading.

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GaryD View Post
Some wise trader once said to me, "There are no magic bar patterns to enter off of, there are only areas to enter with risk management. Better traders can use volume, order flow, the foot print chart, or whatever as a secondary confirmation, but they only do that at an area that they want to put a trade on in."


I must have been channeling someone smart.

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  #253 (permalink)
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Starting a new summary view for my trade reports, something simple that takes the direct NT export with a few added ratios and general commentary instead of trade-by-trade. Hope to generate some additional info out of this with moving averages as I gather more weeks of data.

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Price had come down into deep support, this time being a cocktail of some favorite numbers; Major 618, Major trendline, Major pivot area, and XFib2, all within a 30 cent range. The only thing more I could have asked for was the exact mindset I neeeded in that moment. I bought around 89.45ish, then jumped out to think. I was not looking for a long distance trade, I was looking to get positive on the day. I know the saying, "Be careful what you ask for", but had momentary amnesia from being shaken too hard.



I have been stalking a reversal for at least a week now, 5 entries today, all from the long side.



The 618/X2/MTL held

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I must have been channeling someone smart.

Correct. Your inner self.

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I have stared at every version of this chart I can come up with. I get nothing. I don't mind deciding I don't like it, but just wish I could determine why. Not understanding it is not the same...

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  #257 (permalink)
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Going to bed. Feeling very comfortable with trading, discussing trading. The trade desk in the middle of the house is ideal for me. Share, live, invite friends to participate, or just watch on a Friday. My relationship with trading is coming back to full fire without intention.

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Wife is sick. Austin meeting Tuesday.

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I'm not sure about this post.




Documenting that this is what I am staring at tonight. Drwaing lines, then erasing them and starting over. Or drawing too many and leaving them all there for awhile. Watching them live get hit, or not, and how they react. If there is no certainty, I'd better be aware.

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Market Profile is like support and resistance in high speed. It forms as you watch it.

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MP is the strucure within the structure. Where is the market, and what kind of market is it.

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Monday 8:30am - Melissa was sick and I slept on the couch. That on top of Martin's 2nd birthday party has me feeling like I could sleep another hour or two. And I studied market profile so much this weekend that I am not sure what I think about the position of the market today. Much of what I believe I learned this weekend is in conflict with other information. So overall not feeling competition ready today.

Crude has established a local double bottom at a key support area consisting of a major 618, major Xfib2, major trendline around 89.20-89.50.


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T1


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2


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2


Selling a flat Vwap

After a good extreme has been tested like today

Is not wise in my eyes

Just thought i would voice my opinion sir

Thatís like trading bang in the middle of a bracket in theory (No selling or buying control bias)

At least wait for a developing value extreme to give you some good probabilities

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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greenr View Post
Selling a flat Vwap

After a good extreme has been tested like today

Is not wise in my eyes

Just thought i would voice my opinion sir

Thatís like trading bang in the middle of a bracket in theory (No selling or buying control bias)

At least wait for a developing value extreme to give you some good probabilities



I started to see I was wrong and got out awhile back. The POC kept rising with it. I am also not all there today.

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Monday 8:30am - Melissa was sick and I slept on the couch. That on top of Martin's 2nd birthday party has me feeling like I could sleep another hour or two. And I studied market profile so much this weekend that I am not sure what I think about the position of the market today. Much of what I believe I learned this weekend is in conflict with other information. So overall not feeling competition ready today.


And it showed in today's performance. Net -15.

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Felt like crap today, almost passed on trading at all but was looking forward to a new week. I went negative and was done. Just could not make a decision on what I wanted to do, where I wanted to do it, etc. I put a lot of time into studying market profile, and found a place where my beliefs clashed. I am expecting this new study to turn some thoughts around and chould be careful in the process.

Volume was very light and price just levitated the rest of the day.

Unexpected trip to New Jersey first flight out tomorrow. May get to make EIA if I can get things resolved quickly and fly home tomorrow night.

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  #270 (permalink)
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Melissa is still sick. She gets the bedroom, I will stay out here on the couch.

Instead of TV I am watching crude in slow motion. Bought 91.03, then decided that was boredom. Right back out.

Still watching as it breaks the Monday HOD 92.15. T&S kicks up speed.

Remembering times when I shorted this type of move, for maybe 5 ticks profit or 10 ticks loss. Or 20 ticks after averaging in. Feeling it, smiling about it, wondering where we get trade incentives from sometimes.

It feels so ironic that the majority of traders instinctively do the wrong things, and then further down the path have such respect for intuition.

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  #271 (permalink)
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Have now officially studied market profile to the point where I know nothing.

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GaryD View Post
Have now officially studied market profile to the point where I know nothing.

Cool, now you're ready to learn!

I have read MoM maybe 4 times over the last 2 years, and after gaining some experience between reads, each time I learn something new. In fact, read some of it last night and some light bulbs went off. The learning takes place in the market, but it's a good book to help along the way.

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  #273 (permalink)
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92.00 - 92.30

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Cool, now you're ready to learn!

I have read MoM maybe 4 times over the last 2 years, and after gaining some experience between reads, each time I learn something new. In fact, read some of it last night and some light bulbs went off. The learning takes place in the market, but it's a good book to help along the way.

It gives definition to things I already interpret, which drew me in, but also deconstructs a lot of beliefs, which is painful.

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No, she was not interested in my conversation topic. Truthfully, I'd prefer to watch the turtles.



Could not help myself.

Uuuuuhhhhhhh!

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  #277 (permalink)
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But still expecting to rock the rest of the week. lol!!

Confidence is above the moving average.

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  #278 (permalink)
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Wed / EIA. Melissa is still sick, I am getting used to sharing the couch with Piper. Flew straight back from New Jersey last night.

Price hed in a very tight range overnight, roughly 15-20 cents, 92-67-92.81. Yesterday's RTH value area 92.71-93.24, POC 93.10, with the majority of volume occuring below the POC. Yesterdays price action saw an impulse move up creating a wide IB, the price one time framed down teh remainder of the day to balance. Yesterday price jumped out of a bracket between 91-92 and into a previous bracket between 92-94.

Pre-open is impulsing up out of the ON range.

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josh View Post
Cool, now you're ready to learn!

I have read MoM maybe 4 times over the last 2 years, and after gaining some experience between reads, each time I learn something new. In fact, read some of it last night and some light bulbs went off. The learning takes place in the market, but it's a good book to help along the way.



More open to learning. I had hit a point where I was over learning, had done it too hard for too long. Market profile is now a lot easier to digest with so much prior market experience than the first tie I tried to study it, and is different enough from anything I learned before to keep my interest. The thought of gaining additional insight into structure excites me, and I wish I had the same time today that I had several years ago to study it.

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I wish I had the same time today that I had several years ago to study it.

I think the real studying happens while the market is open. Thinking of the market in terms of an auction may be a different way of thinking, but you already know how to trade, and this allows simply a different paradigm that can complement what you already know, and does not need to replace anything. So, I don't think anyone needs time, just experience observing real-time principles in action. Anyway, I hope Melissa feels better. My girlfriend is also sick, as was I for two weeks with pneumonia; makes it difficult to do anything normal, and I empathize with her, hope she gets better soon!

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  #281 (permalink)
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My TUT email from Tuesday;


It's as if everyone has a built-in, happiness-now button, Gary, which can instantly change how they feel, no matter what's going on in their lives.

But for many, most of the time, they prefer not to push it.

Go on, push it real good -
The Universe




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Do you know what it sometimes means, Gary, when you feel a bit bummed out and aren't sure why? When you catch yourself looking back over your shoulder and wondering? When you feel doubt, sense uncertainty, and experience fear? When you sometimes wonder what's taking so long?

It means you're normal.

Yeeeeeeee-haaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
The Universe

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  #285 (permalink)
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I am leaning long, but the range is so tight. I would like to see a washout move lower with some volume.



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  #286 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
I am leaning long, but the range is so tight. I would like to see a washout move lower with some volume.



Sounds good

Here is what im thinking as of 11:39 EST

Im short from the highs trying to target yesterdays lows....may be just above the excess area we will see

If we hold that area im expecting the market to just come back into balance rotations

Then a possible spike/probe high into the close targeting 93.80-94.00

As alway any thing can happen but here is my take on the day so far

At the moment we have been quietly 1 time framing lower

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #287 (permalink)
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there it goes...


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  #288 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
there it goes...


This looked like a good place to get out

Watching a lot of absorbtion here right at the lows of the major balance from yesterday before the spike down



Week vwap below @ 92.47



Here was the heads up for my exit also


" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #289 (permalink)
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1 off


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  #290 (permalink)
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This is a tough view for a recovering scalpaholic. One day at a time...


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  #291 (permalink)
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Sitting here watching this thing dance 2 ticks +/- around my entry. Leg bouncing, sunk down in my chair, bored. I decided it was a trade I wanted to take way before it set up, so I am going to ride it out.

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greenr View Post
This looked like a good place to get out

Watching a lot of absorbtion here right at the lows of the major balance from yesterday before the spike down

Attachment 105755

Week vwap below @ 92.47

Attachment 105756

Here was the heads up for my exit also

Attachment 105757


Someday we will play on the same team...

I am long and that's my final answer

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...that's my final answer

@greenr, do you know what that game show is?

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  #295 (permalink)
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watch it ET me


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  #296 (permalink)
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wrong... lol!! OK I feel better


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  #297 (permalink)
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This is an area I wanted to see since last night


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GaryD View Post
92.00 - 92.30

here

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