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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #21 (permalink)
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My reasoning for this trade was the breaking of the trendline yesterday, and the obviousl resistance at it when it returned this morning.

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Last edited by GaryD; February 5th, 2013 at 01:50 PM.
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Background trading is better when I am busy with other things. Today is a slow work day, and also has turned into a slow market day. I have just watched this 25 cent range of indecision off and on all morning.

And it reminded me of something said by Eckhart Tolle at the opening of one of his seminars...

My chart colors appear to me as kind of reggae today. What I seem to like most about them is they mean very little to me...


Why do I feel the need to do something once I am in a trade? Even now, it is hard for me to complete this sentence as I watch the market feel out it's final hour. As if I could do something about it...


Last edited by GaryD; February 5th, 2013 at 03:06 PM.
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Into the close

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I have not sat through a trade this long since I can't remember when. The forces that will eventually move price out of it's zone are not willing to make a decision... possibly not ahead of tomorrow's report... There is a new experience, I will try to hold on through the night and through tomorrow's EIA.



It may justify a change in my stop strategy though... Do I move to above the zone, far enough for stop runs? Hold at +5, or back to BE? Or will it get hit before open pit close today, in which case I do not need to make a decision. Many other traders decided not to make one today...

Of greatest importance though, is why the feeling of anxiety over potentially allowing profit to slip away?


Do I feel that there is any sign I am wrong in my trade? No... Nothing to say I am right really either.. except that my stop has not been hit... that could say I am right...


Last edited by GaryD; February 5th, 2013 at 03:24 PM.
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To myself, in a low voice, I leaned into the monitors and said, "oh yeah, bring it baby... " lol! What a trip to try to be so self-aware.

That is ego talking.


Market passed the 2:30pm mark, still in. But no freefall.

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Tough market to short from this perspective. I have to get out almost to a daily view to have any real arguement for a short, long term.


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And, from that perspective I have a wide range of stop choices.

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GaryD, happy to see you posting.

This has no risk for me to post, so I will consider it sim speculating The support at 96 was very expected, as this was the fairest price over the last week+ (yellow highlighted area). Buyers found there, no problem. Interestingly, you can also see 97 was rejected last week both from the upside and downside (highlighted blue box), and it was rejected again today, and you took the short. The most natural place to search for buyers again will be 96. However, if there is enough demand here, and 97 fails to reject to the downside, my expectation would be for 97.60, a major area of acceptance last week, to be auctioned for sellers. So if I were GaryD, and if I had a free short trade on, I would leave it, for the potential that exists, or cut it if I didn't want to watch it. But if I were GaryD, I would personally not have a stop any higher than today's highs, expecting 97.40-97.80 to trade before any real sellers are found.

I know you will not let any of this create a bias, so that's why I'm posting, as it's fun to do so for a product I do not normally trade

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A very brief part 2:

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Today crude basically balanced in the upper distribution from yesterday. This is not particularly bearish, but the fact that it could not get above yesterday's high this afternoon either is not particularly bullish. Since Monday's high has been rejected, a move to Monday's lows at 96 might very well be in play, as you are looking for, but since even the VPOC at 96.27 from yesterday could not be tested, a move to the upside is not unexpected either. In short, today was a balanced day, and the market in my very humble opinion has a decent chance of breaking out of this balance to either side (perhaps more to the upside given the context of the day trading in the upper portion of Monday's range, having already found major support at 96). Anyway, hope this trade works out for you Gary!

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  #28 (permalink)
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josh View Post
GaryD, happy to see you posting.

This has no risk for me to post, so I will consider it sim speculating The support at 96 was very expected, as this was the fairest price over the last week+ (yellow highlighted area). Buyers found there, no problem. Interestingly, you can also see 97 was rejected last week both from the upside and downside (highlighted blue box), and it was rejected again today, and you took the short. The most natural place to search for buyers again will be 96. However, if there is enough demand here, and 97 fails to reject to the downside, my expectation would be for 97.60, a major area of acceptance last week, to be auctioned for sellers. So if I were GaryD, and if I had a free short trade on, I would leave it, for the potential that exists, or cut it if I didn't want to watch it. But if I were GaryD, I would personally not have a stop any higher than today's highs, expecting 97.40-97.80 to trade before any real sellers are found.

I know you will not let any of this create a bias, so that's why I'm posting, as it's fun to do so for a product I do not normally trade

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The funniest part is, when I started to figure out what you were saying, I stopped reading and skimmed through to the bottom!


You are right, I will not let any of that create a bias... and the only way I know how is not to listen in the first place! lol! The mind has a mind of it's own...

I will re-read once I have closed my trade.

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josh View Post
A very brief part 2:

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Today crude basically balanced in the upper distribution from yesterday. This is not particularly bearish, but the fact that it could not get above yesterday's high this afternoon either is not particularly bullish. Since Monday's high has been rejected, a move to Monday's lows at 96 might very well be in play, as you are looking for, but since even the VPOC at 96.27 from yesterday could not be tested, a move to the upside is not unexpected either. In short, today was a balanced day, and the market in my very humble opinion has a decent chance of breaking out of this balance to either side (perhaps more to the upside given the context of the day trading in the upper portion of Monday's range, having already found major support at 96). Anyway, hope this trade works out for you Gary!



blah blah blah...

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lol Gary! When you re-read you will see that I have no real opinion either way as the structure is not particularly supporting either side in my opinion, so the joke is on you

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