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Like a turtle to his balcony...


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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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  #1801 (permalink)
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Overhead stop run, back to balance.

The trade today has been to fade the extremes as this broadening shape forms...








Braodening shape completed, stops run below the market.

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  #1802 (permalink)
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  #1805 (permalink)
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Closed. Not ready to commit, but there was a good push there. 1.5:1 scalp.

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  #1806 (permalink)
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tight long, 10 tick stop. 2.2:1 scalp




I had set the target higher, entered into that positive delta push, but then that seller started hitting at the 202x25, and while it was absorbed as I held to my reduced target, I realized the price of oil will not stay this high without a reason.

I still doubt big shorts will go in before the weekend, and may buy again, but I was going to trade 10% today and have already had more entries than I thought I would.

I should have taken the fades I was commenting on, but while I thought I might understand, today's price action was relly tough for me. Slowing way down, only taking what I felt I "knew" was available, I navigated through today with no losing trades. As I typed that I heard that my probabilities are lessening today.

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  #1807 (permalink)
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Yes, I am done. Net 81 is all I got from that whole thing today, less the 30 ticks I lost yesterday. I feel like I made great commentary to myself but did not trade it worth anything. But, if things go well, there is a big move to the downside on the horizon.

Volume is still so light, price is so whippy, normal levels are being blown right through like they are nothing, price broadened which say to me no one has a clue on a bigger perspective, and it makes sense why they don't given the current circumstances.

TGIF(w)

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  #1808 (permalink)
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This week has had me in a time warp. Sitting here at the desk drinking coffee, thinking it's Saturday... but no, it is Thursday, 4th of July. This short week was not only chaotic in the price of oil, but I have a project in DC that was a week behind schedule and trying to bring it back with 3 days to work with. Felt like I was trying to disarm a bomb as the timer ticked away with very little time left.

I started my day checking emails, which lead to reading about defending futures.io (formerly BMT). Enjoyed it. I am a member of Elite Trader, but never liked the way it was set up, found a lot of garbage there. Not suggesting there is nothing good on that site, but it did not hold my attention long enough for me to find it.

Yesterday was rotational, but with a panicky edge to it. That was a very unusual combination of pre-holiday volume combined with geopolitical black swan. I traded it like I was scared of it, and I guess I was. I justified that to myself, thinking I needed to understand things better to trade them, but that is only partially true. Something that is missing from my approach is curiosity to see where things might go while I am in a trade. I ran an ongoing discussion with myself as the effects of the Egypt coup fueled oil's motion for a few days, would guess at how far it might go in a direction, and it usually did. But I did it while out of the trade the majority of the time. Had I been in the trade, there was a lot to be made in two days.

It feels like some of my past failures cause me to limit my expectations. And I have played with that thought before, but what I think is missing is something that is a trick to recreate once it is lost; innocence. Not meaning the opposite of guilty, but the innocence of childhood. Looking at the future with more wonder than experience. Getting some of that back would be helpful to me where I am in my trading.

I have been doing some things I guess, reminded as one of the squirrels just pressed his hands against the window, wondering why the drive thru is closed today. And adding a new kitten to the family has brought some play and laughter. Although, it has also brought into my thoughts of trading "curiosity killed the cat". But, if I did not already know that saying, I would not have thought of it myself. If I had never heard that phrase and was asked to finish the sentence "Curiosity..." and reference Short Squeeze, I would say it "is what makes him so fun to watch". Everything in this house can become something to play with. He would gladly trade all of his pet store toys for a laundry basket.

Innocence, curiosity, wonder, enthusiasm, carefree... those words are trying to describe corrective remedy to an imbalance.

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  #1809 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
This week has had me in a time warp. Sitting here at the desk drinking coffee, thinking it's Saturday... but no, it is Thursday, 4th of July. This short week was not only chaotic in the price of oil, but I have a project in DC that was a week behind schedule and trying to bring it back with 3 days to work with. Felt like I was trying to disarm a bomb as the timer ticked away with very little time left.

I started my day checking emails, which lead to reading about defending futures.io (formerly BMT). Enjoyed it. I am a member of Elite Trader, but never liked the way it was set up, found a lot of garbage there. Not suggesting there is nothing good on that site, but it did not hold my attention long enough for me to find it.

Yesterday was rotational, but with a panicky edge to it. That was a very unusual combination of pre-holiday volume combined with geopolitical black swan. I traded it like I was scared of it, and I guess I was. I justified that to myself, thinking I needed to understand things better to trade them, but that is only partially true. Something that is missing from my approach is curiosity to see where things might go while I am in a trade. I ran an ongoing discussion with myself as the effects of the Egypt coup fueled oil's motion for a few days, would guess at how far it might go in a direction, and it usually did. But I did it while out of the trade the majority of the time. Had I been in the trade, there was a lot to be made in two days.

It feels like some of my past failures cause me to limit my expectations. And I have played with that thought before, but what I think is missing is something that is a trick to recreate once it is lost; innocence. Not meaning the opposite of guilty, but the innocence of childhood. Looking at the future with more wonder than experience. Getting some of that back would be helpful to me where I am in my trading.

I have been doing some things I guess, reminded as one of the squirrels just pressed his hands against the window, wondering why the drive thru is closed today. And adding a new kitten to the family has brought some play and laughter. Although, it has also brought into my thoughts of trading "curiosity killed the cat". But, if I did not already know that saying, I would not have thought of it myself. If I had never heard that phrase and was asked to finish the sentence "Curiosity..." and reference Short Squeeze, I would say it "is what makes him so fun to watch". Everything in this house can become something to play with. He would gladly trade all of his pet store toys for a laundry basket.

Innocence, curiosity, wonder, enthusiasm, carefree... those words are trying to describe corrective remedy to an imbalance.

@GaryD Lovely lovely pertinent post. You are our flagbearer, our scribe of many of our innermost thoughts as we all flow along this long and winding road.....

I almost skip writing MANY journal entries once I read your posts.... its all in here!

Happy Independence Day!

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  #1810 (permalink)
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There is lightning outside, Florida summer. I gave up until it wears itself out after it struck down the street. Until it does, I got out a lttile video camera and asked my wife and her girlfriend if I could video tape them. The project is to make a post here. They get to direct the edit and approve the final cut before the post.

I am starting with something that started in another thread, where I asked @Big Mike and @ Private Banker if they had lost everything but $50k, would they trade exclusively for a living? And I gave Melissa and Susan my version of the two similar but different answers.

Then I said, "ok, given that background story, if each of you were in the same situation, it is highly probable that your answer would be no. If not, congratulations. But if it would be "No", there is a reason. Explain that as best you can".

They are thinking about it.

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  #1811 (permalink)
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ok this question has me curious about the answer, I ll be watching for their replies

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  #1812 (permalink)
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oil prices spiked on Friday on reports that Egypt closed off its borders with the Gaza Strip and announced a state of emergency in the Suez and Sinai provinces. The reports, from Egypt's government-owned newspaper, cited security threats after attacks in the region as the reason for closing the border, a key seaway used for oil traffic.

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  #1813 (permalink)
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Tough call this morning. Pre-RTH price tested above Wednesday's high, then opened back inside range, tested Wed's value, and has settled in the middle pre- ES. Egypt still provides little comfort that the threat is over.

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  #1816 (permalink)
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LOL! Missed me. It filled 20 lucky orders and left me behind!


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  #1817 (permalink)
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Rad4633 View Post
ok this question has me curious about the answer, I ll be watching for their replies

I may have to get back to that one later. The topic got away from us and we were off in other directions. I guess there is enough trade talk during regular hours.

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  #1818 (permalink)
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Sunday evening



I found myself wanting to fade crude tonight. On the daily chart this is a high confluence area for major resistance, which is why I was "sell ready", without any additional confirmation.





But my goal has been to blend everything I have learned into a single understanding, and catching the top does not win me anything special. There is nothing saying to sell in MP. The 6pm open was above Friday's range, tested into the price that occured after the pit close and reversed out higher again.





I was thinking about market profile this weekend as I drove along, and saw that it can give a very early indication on when and where to go short, if I was going to, and that by having an understanding of where on other charts should be more of an awareness than a commitment.

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  #1819 (permalink)
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“You train your eye and your vision lusts after color. You train your ear, and you long for delightful sound. You delight in doing good, and your natural kindness is blown out of shape. You delight in righteousness, and you become righteous beyond all reason. You overdo liturgy, and you turn into a ham actor. Overdo your love of music, and you play corn. Love of wisdom leads to wise contriving. Love of knowledge leads to faultfinding.

If men would stay as they really are, taking or leaving these eight delights would make no difference. But if they will not rest in their right state, the eight delights develop like malignant tumors. The world falls into confusion. Since men honour these delights, and lust after them, the world has gone stone-blind. When the delight is over, they still will not let go of it....”


- Chuang Tzu


I was a great guitar player in my pre and early college years. And then got my father's permission to change colleges to become a jazz performance major. The study was intense. I went to one of the top rated jazz schools in the country, and we started with over 100 guitarists in the first semester, had 17 I think by semester 2. There was a performance test every single week, and if you made a mistake on just one of those performances, you got a B for the class. You had to get an A or a B to move on to the next level.

Technically, I became a much better player. But the intensity and seriousness of it all slowly killed my passion for playing.

I got into trading the opposite way. I studied as hard as I ever have at anything. I dug into the techincal side without ever considering whether I liked it or not. Now I am going the other direction...

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  #1820 (permalink)
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Taking this outside to discuss with my wife.

Short was correct BTW, but not important. There are better trades.




On a different note, last week, Friday, I was telling my wife how things went. Not a great week for all the work and hours.. .and she said, "It was one week, not a big deal". That shift in her was inspiring to me. Proving to her that this is ok has been a big pressure for me. Like the archer going for gold.

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  #1821 (permalink)
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value

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  #1822 (permalink)
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Crude continues to rotate around 103. The Suez canal has remained secure so far, but there is still a lot of conflict in the region. "Egypt’s interim leader set parliamentary elections within seven months, pushing ahead with a troubled political transition on a day that also saw the army shoot dead at least 51 supporters of ousted Islamist President Mohamed Mursi." - Bloomberg

104 was touched in the ON session on Sunday and quickly rejected as trading opened after the weekend. price got ahead of itself as is normal for crude going into a weekend with no one wanting to get majorly short.

I am watching two balance areas and trading off the extremes.


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  #1823 (permalink)
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I have been flat since about 10am, right now sitting here watching this odd flat top form at the excess of the RTH bracket. If it will push through on HSV I am watching to short, but until it does this just looks dangerous. ETH high is up above 104 still. No one seems interested in selling this area yet, but price has gotten stuck.

I used to refer to this condition as Brer Rabbit day. "Oh Please don't run the stops overhead"







Thinking of Shopster's three sisters...


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  #1824 (permalink)
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Price opened this morning in yesterday's value, tested below it a couple times, then ran up to test the high. Meanwhile, ES gapped open higher and has held onto crude ever since.


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  #1825 (permalink)
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Equities are up, Notes are up, Crude is up, and the Dollar is up... It's just a day to buy everything.

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GaryD View Post
Equities are up, Notes are up, Crude is up, and the Dollar is up... It's just a day to buy everything.

Those that build trading systems by the sword of correlations will DIE by the sword of that correlation. The market will reward those that understand the appreciate the in chaos there is order. And when to stop and pause to think, and when to go for the jugular.

Mechanistic systems are for meat-heads. The beauty lies in nuance. The USD has been leading for while, since that fateful day in 2008/09 crash. But it was not the end of the world, it was the beginning.

And believe me, there were plenty who realized that it was was a classic case of......

"That more things changed, the more they remained the same. The future is unpredictable, but history tells us a good deal on how we react to fearful change, and how we will keep doing so. With fear, uncertainty and rashness. There is much to learn from anthropological behaviour."

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  #1827 (permalink)
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And into the briar patch they go

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  #1828 (permalink)
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Never got the high stopping volume bar I was hoping to see. Maybe tomorrow.

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  #1829 (permalink)
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This morning's market review by Short Squeeze.



Step One - Review overnight action on the ETH VWAP







Step Two - Note key volume areas on the VSA chart.






He is getting better.

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  #1830 (permalink)
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Equities are up, Notes are up, Crude is up, and the Dollar is up... It's just a day to buy everything.

To drive home the point, PIMCO's Bill Gross recently said that the bonds move was overdone. Was he talking his book, trying to protect PIMCO or trying to predict? Personally I think, all three. The trader in me simply said, what is the price telling you, if anything at all.....and, at the moment, its telling a clear story, An impulse wave, followed by W3, then a W5 to follow at some point. Also, since I can draw this, I assume others see this as well, including experts in Mr Gross's fund.


So, in my mind, the market is saying eff you to Mr Gross, as it should. And the USD is saying the same thing too. As the Gold market is saying to gold bugs. There have been trying times; in my bull theory to the USD with its vicious pull-backs, but each time USD is cutting the heads of its detractors. Each time. And the lovely part is, we are still, very much price wise, in either the very early W3 macro for USD or late W1. If the structure holds.


Now, Since any potential scenario can be predicted by any number of people, the edge therefore, lies not in information, but in the execution and risk - reward assigned to each scenario. Which is what every single pro cares about. Let me be wrong, and still make money. And let others predict, pontificate and feel like geniuses for being right.


PS - I love this picture with "Short Squeeze". He looks like a champ. Thanks for that.

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  #1831 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
PS - I love this picture with "Short Squeeze". He looks like a champ. Thanks for that.


Cats are just naturally born great daytraders. Just wait until he is 5 lbs...

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  #1832 (permalink)
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Those that build trading systems by the sword of correlations will DIE by the sword of that correlation. The market will reward those that understand the appreciate the in chaos there is order. And when to stop and pause to think, and when to go for the jugular.

@Deucalion, in short, you seem to be saying, "screw correlations, because they change." Am I more or less correct?

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  #1833 (permalink)
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josh View Post
@Deucalion, in short, you seem to be saying, "screw correlations, because they change." Am I more or less correct?

Exactly,
Yes to Correlations - when price action on each individual market supports it. And when it makes sense.
No to Correlations - if not. (Most of the time) As none us of ever really know when change is coming. That would make us Pundits, not traders. Also, Correlation is an effect, not a cause, often comes too late to do anything actionable

Dangerous to build correlations. So why does everyone do it? Cockroach theory, because one meat-head does, so do the others. No original thinking, No curiousity. Besides its simple to say - dollar goes up, oil goes down. Its an all encompassing statement that requires not much thinking.

Works sometimes, and when it fails, then what?

Why not attempt to build an approach to work in both cases, I know its harder, more scary, And one, maybe, ends being looking like a fool more often, but my bottom line thanks me for it.

Will I succeed, of fail like the Titanic? Who knows..... success is only decided when you are on your deathbed.

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  #1834 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Exactly,
Yes to Correlations - when price action on each individual market supports it. And when it makes sense.
No to Correlations - if not. (Most of the time) As none us of ever really know when change is coming. That would make us Pundits, not traders. Also, Correlation is an effect, not a cause, often comes too late to do anything actionable

Dangerous to build correlations. So why does everyone do it? Cockroach theory, because one meat-head does, so do the others. No original thinking, No curiousity. Besides its simple to say - dollar goes up, oil goes down. Its an all encompassing statement that requires not much thinking.

Works sometimes, and when it fails, then what?

Why not attempt to build an approach to work in both cases, I know its harder, more scary, And one, maybe, ends being looking like a fool more often, but my bottom line thanks me for it.

Will I succeed, of fail like the Titanic? Who knows..... success is only decided when you are on your deathbed.

Just to be clear, I don't trade on the correlation, it is just something I watch daily and rarely see where every market is green at the same time. I spent 90% of today flat. Price opened in balance and I never saw anything that felt great. I see now, after RTH close, that crude ran up and broke the ETH high, and may make 105 before 5:15pm. It can go to 150 while the dollar goes to the same, nothing can stop either one from doing what they are going to do.

Many times when I see in the after-the-trade news where they try to justify what moved price, and they reference things like the dollar, I just laugh at it. Maybe there was a time where it worked well, and there are still times that I have seen one market wait until another reaches it's zone so they can move together, but I have overlayed many charts that were rumored to be correlated and can find enough times where they are not to not worry too much about it.

But, unless something really goes wrong in Egypt with the Suez canal, crude has some 'splainin' to do.

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  #1835 (permalink)
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Shit Gary, I took over your thread.....but one more please, and thank you.

Also, please know it wasn't directed at you, of course. You already knew that. I just found this an appropriate time to say this. I am probably out of place as far the thread goes.

Remember this guy, @Lornz, who BM banned for being a rude so and so .......most of his posts were provocative. They were not provocative for the sake of being so. It was to prop up heretical and original thought.

Well, here is something provocative.......



If one wants to go a step further, read Winner Take All - William Gallacher. Its not about correlations, it about entertaining thoughts contrary to your own. Even if it doesn't progress one's trading, it allows, at the very least, open thought.

But, what do I know?

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  #1836 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Remember this guy, @Lornz, who BM banned for being a rude so and so

That is not correct.

Lornz was banned because he literally asked to be banned.

Mike

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  #1837 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Shit Gary, I took over your thread.....but one more please, and thank you.... I am probably out of place as far the thread goes.

Ah, but you have landed in the right place. What in the hell is a turtle balcony anyway? The possible definitions are limitless.

As long as the basic thought is trading related, and as long as everyone at least tries to get along, or when they don't it is at least entertaining to me, mi casa es su casa.

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  #1838 (permalink)
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Some day I may go to IQFeed to not have to mess with rollover. Last month I had a NPOC that was way off... But that will be next week's hassle.

@greenr, did you ever make the switch to SC/IQ?

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  #1839 (permalink)
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This whole thing with oil moving higher has me very entertained. I have seen oil run over $100 three times that I remember, each time geopolitical from what I remember also.

I have gotten more and more to where I do not want to trade something I do not fully understand. And since I add so many layers to it, intentionally, there is so much going on intellectually that I am intrigued and content to just watch. I think of the buyers and what is driving them. Not the short covering that is occurring, but the main forces initiating buying. I understand it as they are buying insurance to lock in their cost of doing business, which includes hedging. A perceived threat is upon us.

What I saw today on the Vwap was they kept rejecting value, what I saw on the TPO was mostly one timeframing, tighter and tighter. And once the RTH was over the volume was light enough and there was no one about to fade that momentum, and it had no where else to go until 5:15

If WTI becomes easier to depend on, will it par Brent?

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  #1840 (permalink)
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I have also see where key areas are broken outside of RTH, where an RTH chart holds perfectly...

Tomorrow's EIA could be an unusually volatile market.

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  #1841 (permalink)
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  #1842 (permalink)
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1) Stops taken out




2) Responsive Buying


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  #1843 (permalink)
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Rob, I am long 104.80. Look over what I PM'd you this morning about waiting for the stops to blow, etc. I am targeting 105.32

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  #1844 (permalink)
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  #1845 (permalink)
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I am doing a lot of other work today, trading QM (half size) because it sits still better and gives me more time to look

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  #1846 (permalink)
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The pink box in the ON value area, which was rejected at the open, price wanted to test Y LOD. If E holds as excess, this should be a decent trade.

I bought below yestreday's value, "on sale" so to speak.

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  #1847 (permalink)
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The negative of this trade is we are still one timeframing lower


Price is trying to be accepted into RTH value...

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  #1848 (permalink)
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watch 104.85 for confirmation

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  #1849 (permalink)
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The negative of this trade is we are still one timeframing lower


Price is trying to be accepted into RTH value...

Price is also stuck in a neat channel / DTL since the open. Might need to shake out the low first.

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  #1850 (permalink)
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Price is also stuck in a neat channel / DTL since the open. Might need to shake out the low first.

Might, I have no idea

But there were buyers there, that is all I know. And where they were yesterday. And what my risk to reward is.

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  #1851 (permalink)
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  #1852 (permalink)
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  #1853 (permalink)
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It made it to barely 2:1




Closed the last one at -62.50

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  #1854 (permalink)
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decisions




My original risk versus current risk

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  #1855 (permalink)
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closed 104.90 2.71 : 1 x original

3.8 x the initial loss

Less costs, I don't know for QM, maybe $9 for the two?

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  #1856 (permalink)
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I am flat now, but it almost got there to the original target, 1 tick shy so far. Had I not been wrong on the first entry, or, had I been trading multiple contracts, I would still be waiting. But I felt it was better to take the win after the loss once it had a decent ratio. Maybe tomorrow I cna focus better.

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  #1857 (permalink)
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I decided this morning I was not going to trade inside yesterday's value area, and wanted to fade any move outside of it. I had a good entry on the first attempt, and would have scaled out if I had anything to scale, but just have my head in other stuff.

I considered going from the VAH to the VAL this morning, and had crude been in a balance area prior to today I would have, but felt the odds ere just as good it would peek above A period, and we never got anything above that.


This was what I emailed someone this morning after the RTH open;

"Today will be most likey "rotational" for crude. The value is up, but the open was within yesterday's value and it rejected overnight value at the open. Look to fade the extremes if price tests yesterday's high or low, but wait for volume to tell you it has found responsive buyers/sellers first, and always be aware of where stops are, let them blow first if it gets close."






This is where I went wrong on entry #1, shame on me for not paying full attention today. Yesterday's range is shown at 100%, it had not yet reached 90%. Now, it could have turned there and ran back up to take out the high, and gotten the 100% that direction, but the OTFing that I saw after I was in should have said "wait".

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  #1858 (permalink)
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  #1859 (permalink)
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stop is pulled 1 tick higher than initial risk. I am hoping for K period squeeze. may bail at 2X1, watching footprint



QM is so light, I went "market" and got filled way above where I wanted

But on the CL footprint, that volume in the profile just flared out before my eyes.


still trying to reject Y VAL

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  #1860 (permalink)
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I had the 2x1 opportunity, but decided to go for BE or pit close

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  #1861 (permalink)
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il


Playing it both ways now

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  #1862 (permalink)
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stop is pulled 1 tick higher than initial risk. I am hoping for K period squeeze. may bail at 2X1, watching footprint



Fucking QM is so light, I went "market" and got filled way above where I wanted

But on the CL footprint, that volume in the profile just flared out before my eyes.


still trying to reject Y VAL


I was about to warn you about QM, its a bitch best left alone. I though nah he knows what he's doing

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  #1863 (permalink)
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Target hit. caught 3.71x1 out of that. Almost got taken out at 2x1

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  #1864 (permalink)
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Brutus View Post
I was about to warn you about QM, its a bitch best left alone. I though nah he knows what he's doing



I know very well about QM, but I had a lot of drama in my work today, started with several emails I received before the open, felt somewhat pissed off and knew I would not be able to focus, and also concerend about my emotions.

There is no way for me to trade CL with half my stop size and go for a bigger move, and ther was not way I could scalp today and take a lot of shots at it. So I changed a few charts to QM 5tick range, left the volume, TPOS, footprint etc on CL. QM is harder to read than CL.


Did you see that volume by price jump out at 104.50? That could have been a 2 tick stop, but I was not going that direction..

I wanted to swing trade, and should have sold the open, but like I said, "A" period did not seem telling enough. QM is great for that.

Just started playing with Sierra's Risk Reward a lot recently too, Wonderful and easy tool for thinking while in a trade. Until that I mostly eyeballed it. "Close enough" is my motto. LOL!

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  #1865 (permalink)
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I know very well about QM, but I had a lot of drama in my work today, started with several emails I received before the open, felt somewhat pissed off and knew I would not be able to focus, and also concerend about my emotions.

There is no way for me to trade CL with half my stop size and go for a bigger move, and ther was not way I could scalp today and take a lot of shots at it. So I changed a few charts to QM 5tick range, left the volume, TPOS, footprint etc on CL. QM is harder to read than CL.


Did you see that volume by price jump out at 104.50? That could have been a 2 tick stop, but I was not going that direction..

only after you pointed it out

even on limit trades QM stops short a tick or two ( CL LOD 104.31 ~ QM 104.325 etc) & trades very thin at the extremes of swings, so it can cost you a great fill.

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  #1866 (permalink)
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only after you pointed it out

even on limit trades QM stops short a tick or two ( CL LOD 104.31 ~ QM 104.325 etc) & trades very thin at the extremes of swings, so it can cost you a great fill.

That slippage is cheaper than me trading with a bad attitude any day.

I opened a nasty email this morning around 6:30am, and decided right then that I needed to be very aware of what I was doing, and by 8:30 decided to go to QM, and decide on a specific plan, if I was going to trade at all.

In hindsight, selling would have been a lot easier, but that was not my plan, and if my trade did not come that was the right thing today. Had there been a probe above A, absolutely, that was my plan to go short.

Some days I can be flexible in my mindset, and/or take losses better than other days. I am very happy with my read on my own profile today, either way.

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  #1867 (permalink)
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What I have seen, is that if my trading going to be affected by my attitude, my subconscious, my fear and greed, it is usually because I am trading too big. Backing off keeps it out of my concern zone.

QM does not move as much on the screen, I was able to keep an eye on it without it being as noisy, wiithout knowing I could get hit for $200 or more per shot. My max risk today was $87.50.

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  #1868 (permalink)
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Brutus View Post
I was about to warn you about QM, its a bitch best left alone. I though nah he knows what he's doing

I know better than to go market too. But I have missed entries entirely before trying to be choosy. When you enter on high volume turns, sometimes it moves so fast. But I swear sometimes when I do go market, that it looks like orders jump out of the way and reappear after I am filled. Freemasons is my guess.

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  #1869 (permalink)
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Thursday evening, 7/11/13


Having recently added so many things to watch, I have some charts in more dominant positions than others. This ne was in a 5" x 5" upper corner to my far left, and I did look at it early, but did not look during the trades I took.

The buys that I took today were also coming off the weekly VWAP.




That would only add confirmation for trade location, and I have watched ETH/RTH VWAP be a point that gets slammed through as often as not, but there are almost always orders there. But I forgot to log in my mind what happened until just now. I have two alternate trade layouts I am using for after hours, each different but both containing a lot less information, so this chart now occupies nearly 50% of one screen and it stood out.





The higher the timeframe, the fewer repetition I get with observing reaction. RTH VWAP comes into play basically daily, but weekly not that often so far, It is still what I refer to as "Ben's Chart", not mine.

But I have now adopted the RTH/ETH session vwap charts as my own, as well as the TPO split. The footprint still something I am not sure what I was doing without it, such a detailed view once I learned to ignore it most of the time.

I am steering away from fibs except for daily, and then intraday on ver small timeframes for visualization. But all the hours of marking line after line, then condensing down on Sunday evenings, I have nearly quit. All of that seems built into market profile as far as daytrading goes. I used to spend so much time deciding which levels I thought would hold, which were most obvious, all discretionary on my part. Market profile removes some of that, gives additional depth of information that make those decisions for me to some degree, which has the feeling of removing some uncertainty. Not that it has any greater effect on the outcome, but a part of uncertainty is deciding which side to be on, when to go with a break or when to fade it, and whether to expect something to run wild or be targeted.

And I have caught myself making mistakes that are related to me trading without MP for so long. I will elect to not listen to what it says, typically proving me wrong. But as that happens it provides the psychological correction that builds my understanding of it, adherence to certain things about it, again reducing uncertainty. Or maybe, less decisions to have to make, calming the mind to be more single-focused.

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  #1870 (permalink)
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It is where I think it is most likely they will be, for whatever reason, and that when you are there, it is obvious in a way that shows on a VSA and / or footprint, so understanding that alone is an edge.

But combine it with a cornucopia of "wheres", the learn when each one is most likely, or MORE likely, even if against the current...

1) How it works (fill in definition)
2) Possibilites to capitalize on it (fill in definition)
3) Psychology balanced to that method. (Hard to define)

Trading in a nutshell.

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  #1871 (permalink)
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My friend and mentor, Pete (not Peter);

"If I can't kick it or piss on it, I don't want to own it"

(in a discussion that started going towards trading)

VERY succesful guy.



I think about conversations like that. As it relates to how fast futures prices can change compared to something more tangible. Adding firepower to something already considered a myth.

But it seems that is the final step. It is in the mind. It is against what the mind is designed to do. Why, knowing that, do people push on?

But, some do. What percentage? Few.

Humbled, beaten, ridiculed, to the edge of questioning their own sanity. To the point of, having a decision to make. Do you quit, or evolve?

Becoming a trader is related to the concept of evolution. The environment to survive in changes.

Some things that do not transfer;

1) It is not what you know, but who you know

2) Success comes to those who work hardest


It is Thursday night, my wife is off tomorrow, so it is our weekend, we are drinking, I am drawn to this journal to explain myself as to why it is ok to trade for a living. Psychologically, it does not make sense, really. There are so many more reliable options I am not even going to try to count.

Personality. Passion. Life.

I read a quasi-quote from a great trader in bonds, "Live by the sword, die by the sword." That IS what it is like, in some ways.

"Easy" job? Yeah, right. Go grab your millions, pajama boy. Not that I get dressed up for trading every single day, but the visual of that, suggesting it is all R&R, is the best urban myth out there.

It is dedication, self discovery, persistance, deeper than anything anyone who has not been through it could understand.

Even the LOVE of it can be wrong.

The answer, is balance. Simple, Complicated.

I need some beets. Maybe @Zondor is onto something.

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  #1872 (permalink)
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And to think, almost all day long all they wanted to do was sell...

Why does price move lower?

To find buyers.

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  #1873 (permalink)
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Friday


Volume is indecisive so far, open in range, above Y value but really not seeing it that way. Opening drive into Y value to test, rejected for now but incomplete low sitting there. Not seeing anything to do.






Today I have a very easy day, could completely blow of work if I want. Complete opposite of yesterday. Trading can have my full attention but so far is not showing anything that I understand more than a coin flip. My first thought is today should be tighter range, inside the 2-day balance, but that does not help me at this moment.

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  #1874 (permalink)
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fast buy, 2 contracts 104.86, back out and flat 105.06. May target opposite end but what I took felt much more guaranteed. No chart image, was not important. The buy was from seeing just a tiny hint of buyers at Y POC/VPOC confluence. Risk was 12t, profit 2, not quite 2x1


EDIT: spike bottom. I should have held one to at least the lower IB. Dropping a scalper mentality is such a tough process sometimes. Disappointed in my split second approach. I think because today has been so slow other than this move, the adrenaline kicked up in comparison...





I saw that daily pivot line combined with the edge of RTH value, my profit target was set above the HOD, and then I closed it.

The feeling is frustration. That is obvious on the surface. But does not address the quick reaction. If I get past the frustration, what came before that? Right now that area is still clouded by my current emotions. That's ok, normal. But I need to hold this thought for awhile.

OK, some clarity. It is because the thought process of what I am wanting to do is different from what I have done the majority of the time. It is a groove my mind is in. Habit.

Many years spent not anticipating a move like I was targeting, having it catch me off guard, causing my trust to be compromised. Not trust, belief. Having not held that belief, one, and having not experienced the confirmation of that belief once held, two. Watching it and being in it are completely different things.


Keeping my eyes on footprint is probably a large part of it.

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  #1875 (permalink)
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3 wins, 1 loss, lack of surrender today.

But I managed it well, got some good thougts from it. Cutting myself some slack as I only read my first MP book a few months ago. I need time to reinforce some different reactions. My entries were very good today, extremely good actually.

I sold the high but would not do it until YHOD broke, and my loss was an extreme tick stopout from that first entry. I hit it again, took a 20 cent move down to match my buy at the bottom, and leaving all that room in the middle until Monday, where surrender will remain my #1 focus.


TGIF


SURRENDER

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  #1876 (permalink)
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I am taking a short journal vacation next week. I think a week of silence and pure trading is going to be good.

I have spent so much time learning where markets might turn, what they look like when they do, that it has become a hindrance for me. If that is not occuring, "I am not trading" is I think what lies in the background.

I will trade QM, and possibly even ES, and I am removing all price references in the values scale. I want price to move slower. I am going to take 1-2 trades a day, and let them run to stop, target, or RTH close, using the various concepts of "value" to define the approach.

I know very weel what the issues can be, what I am up against, have extracted so much from keeping this. But it is kind of like training wheels for me. There is some satisfaction out of continuing to journal that is not trading related.

My mind needs some manipulating to break out into a different understanding. A part of that is putting down the journal, if that is what this is.

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GaryD View Post
I am taking a short journal vacation next week. I think a week of silence and pure trading is going to be good.

I have spent so much time learning where markets might turn, what they look like when they do, that it has become a hindrance for me. If that is not occuring, "I am not trading" is I think what lies in the background.

I will trade QM, and possibly even ES, and I am removing all price references in the values scale. I want price to move slower. I am going to take 1-2 trades a day, and let them run to stop, target, or RTH close, using the various concepts of "value" to define the approach.

I know very weel what the issues can be, what I am up against, have extracted so much from keeping this. But it is kind of like training wheels for me. There is some satisfaction out of continuing to journal that is not trading related.

My mind needs some manipulating to break out into a different understanding. A part of that is putting down the journal, if that is what this is.


From Dr Brett to Victor Niederhoffer, while writing the preface of The Psychology of Trading -

"....................Nothing is quite so conducive to reflection as travel. The combination of distinctive scenery and breaks from normal, daily schedules helps us think in new ways, see things in a new light. What we vacate during vacation are our routine ways. It is during those breaks from the routine that creative impulses are most likely to find expression.........."

Brett N. Steenbarger. The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques for Minding the Markets (p. xiii).

He uses travel to gain perspective, assimilate and to detach himself from himself. One could use any tool that allows the same detachment. Perspective, assimilation and detached assessment are pretty hard to gain but very rewarding when and if one can get it. Solitude is rare practice, more should try it. Do less in life, slow it down. Smell the wet grass......enjoy the laughter of your loved ones, listen to them.

But most of all, forget that you exist.

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Deucalion View Post
But most of all, forget that you exist.

That is it. I could not find that explanation today, but this journal has too much of me. Perfect my friend. Brilliant. Thanks.

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  #1879 (permalink)
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Passing the torch...

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Price feels weak

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  #1881 (permalink)
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I was not going to journal this week, and am still not going to post any charts, but something important about what I have been studying just hit me tonight.

I am very much a believer in "feeling" trading, and last night I just felt that price was weak. This morning gapped open, and I almost instantly wanted to sell it from the feeling I had the night before, but I waited for something on a chart to help confirm. I did sell CL around 106.50-106.60, but took the trade back off around 106.10. The LOD was closer to 105.70, and tonight price has dipped into the 105.40 area.

My plan for today was to hold until the close, but I did not make it. It was that the charts I watch said that the trend was still up, and I expected price to find support in prior "value". And it did find it, becoming choppy into the close aftrer the directional move to prior value. But the plan to hold went away as soon as I thought I had a reason.

So tonight, questioning the things that occured today, deciding for myself if what I did was wrong or right, I saw that it is much easier psychologically to believe in a trade's potential when price is moving out of value than when it is headed into it.

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  #1882 (permalink)
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Passing the torch...

hope your trading is going well. may the ticks be with you

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  #1883 (permalink)
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Hope it's a good day for you @GaryD. Brent and WTI are just about back to parity, how about that!

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  #1884 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Hope it's a good day for you @GaryD. Brent and WTI are just about back to parity, how about that!

In words of Lil Wayne, ..."I'm gonna need some more Ss"

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  #1885 (permalink)
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Detroit files largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history | Financial Post

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  #1886 (permalink)
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I'm calling shotgun on the Great Double Top...





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  #1887 (permalink)
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HOLD ONTO YOUR SHORTS is the best prison advice I know of.


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  #1888 (permalink)
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Already a big fan. I would prefer that he not sit on my laptop, but he just doesn't get it. He seems to think that if I have the computer with the big screens, that he gets the one with the little screen. He's my boy!

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  #1889 (permalink)
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CL played out today perfectly. I did not trade it perfectly, but still a great day. Sold the open, held my short longer than usual, then in the afternoon bought into support. Great respect of levels, not a lot of waiting for any move, good straightline runs. That type of motion is what keeps me in CL instead of ES.

It is Friday, stayed off the journal this week, and I prefer it that way. I have done this long enough now that it is just a part of me. I think in "journal-speak", can analyze myself in real time quite often. But now that the skill is deeply understood, I think I am ending my trade journaling. I am expecting to start something new but not sure yet.

But the turtle balcony has gone back to where it came from, no where.


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  #1890 (permalink)
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...

But now that the skill is deeply understood, I think I am ending my trade journaling.
But the turtle balcony has gone back to where it came from, no where.


Hi Gary
Thanks for your inputs and a great journal. I see your point here to stop putting all
effort into a journal every day - it uses a lot of energy and time. The goal is to
focus on one's trading - and it helped for sure in many ways. With questions and
comments of futures.io (formerly BMT) members the look at the bigger picture makes that one wider.

There is of course a time to end that journey - and I was thinking exactly the same
to do with my daily journal which I had spent some hours into the last 18 months. In
fact I felt I was the only one here to announce every trade with start and stop time
before I started every trade - this handicapped my trading even a bit more ;-)
My goal was to show that some consistent trading can be made as long one is disciplined.
This step is fulfilled now too.

Wishing you a great trading future - and hope to read a lot of you again.
Happy sunny weekend
GFIs1

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  #1891 (permalink)
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Posted for a friend. I did not sell it, I bought 107.61, exitted RTH VWAP, as the market compares current value to last week. Currently flat again and more interested in being open to what the market says about price.

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  #1892 (permalink)
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I wanted to see what happened at Friday's TPO POC 107.55. The two charts above show two ways to look at absorbtion.

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  #1893 (permalink)
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You never KNOW, but since Monday is overwhelmingly my worst day in the past, I am trying to not go with the flow on Monday, but trying to feel out if prior value is still relevant. Trading very lightly, might even be done for the morning.

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  #1894 (permalink)
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  #1895 (permalink)
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Hi @GaryD, I hope you are enjoying your much deserved break from journaling.

I thought about you when looking at the chart today. Today CL opened at the prior 6-day balance VPOC, drove up into the more recent 3-day balance, found support at its low, and then completed its journey to the upper VPOC. I am posting this because I check in on various markets other than mine from time to time and find it quite amazing that the basic behavior of most markets is the same. I'm not saying that this example is going to happen every day, but it is hard for me to see a market without seeing value overlaid on it, even if only in my mind. And I think about how you came across similar ways of expanding your trading horizons and how much it seems to have benefited your trading, and I think it's awesome. Happy trading Gary!


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  #1896 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Hi @GaryD, I hope you are enjoying your much deserved break from journaling.

I thought about you when looking at the chart today. Today CL opened at the prior 6-day balance VPOC, drove up into the more recent 3-day balance, found support at its low, and then completed its journey to the upper VPOC. I am posting this because I check in on various markets other than mine from time to time and find it quite amazing that the basic behavior of most markets is the same. I'm not saying that this example is going to happen every day, but it is hard for me to see a market without seeing value overlaid on it, even if only in my mind. And I think about how you came across similar ways of expanding your trading horizons and how much it seems to have benefited your trading, and I think it's awesome. Happy trading Gary!


Yes, opened at the NPOC, open drive, it was long only until it got into the prior POC area around 107.25-.30. I am beginning to see a lot of predictable behavior related to that way of looking at it.

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  #1897 (permalink)
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Happy birth day @GaryD

Hope your having a great day


" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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