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Like a turtle to his balcony...


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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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  #1821 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011



value

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  #1822 (permalink)
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Crude continues to rotate around 103. The Suez canal has remained secure so far, but there is still a lot of conflict in the region. "Egypt’s interim leader set parliamentary elections within seven months, pushing ahead with a troubled political transition on a day that also saw the army shoot dead at least 51 supporters of ousted Islamist President Mohamed Mursi." - Bloomberg

104 was touched in the ON session on Sunday and quickly rejected as trading opened after the weekend. price got ahead of itself as is normal for crude going into a weekend with no one wanting to get majorly short.

I am watching two balance areas and trading off the extremes.


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  #1823 (permalink)
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I have been flat since about 10am, right now sitting here watching this odd flat top form at the excess of the RTH bracket. If it will push through on HSV I am watching to short, but until it does this just looks dangerous. ETH high is up above 104 still. No one seems interested in selling this area yet, but price has gotten stuck.

I used to refer to this condition as Brer Rabbit day. "Oh Please don't run the stops overhead"







Thinking of Shopster's three sisters...


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  #1824 (permalink)
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Price opened this morning in yesterday's value, tested below it a couple times, then ran up to test the high. Meanwhile, ES gapped open higher and has held onto crude ever since.


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  #1825 (permalink)
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Equities are up, Notes are up, Crude is up, and the Dollar is up... It's just a day to buy everything.

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  #1826 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Equities are up, Notes are up, Crude is up, and the Dollar is up... It's just a day to buy everything.

Those that build trading systems by the sword of correlations will DIE by the sword of that correlation. The market will reward those that understand the appreciate the in chaos there is order. And when to stop and pause to think, and when to go for the jugular.

Mechanistic systems are for meat-heads. The beauty lies in nuance. The USD has been leading for while, since that fateful day in 2008/09 crash. But it was not the end of the world, it was the beginning.

And believe me, there were plenty who realized that it was was a classic case of......

"That more things changed, the more they remained the same. The future is unpredictable, but history tells us a good deal on how we react to fearful change, and how we will keep doing so. With fear, uncertainty and rashness. There is much to learn from anthropological behaviour."

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  #1827 (permalink)
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And into the briar patch they go

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  #1828 (permalink)
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Never got the high stopping volume bar I was hoping to see. Maybe tomorrow.

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  #1829 (permalink)
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This morning's market review by Short Squeeze.



Step One - Review overnight action on the ETH VWAP







Step Two - Note key volume areas on the VSA chart.






He is getting better.

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  #1830 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Equities are up, Notes are up, Crude is up, and the Dollar is up... It's just a day to buy everything.

To drive home the point, PIMCO's Bill Gross recently said that the bonds move was overdone. Was he talking his book, trying to protect PIMCO or trying to predict? Personally I think, all three. The trader in me simply said, what is the price telling you, if anything at all.....and, at the moment, its telling a clear story, An impulse wave, followed by W3, then a W5 to follow at some point. Also, since I can draw this, I assume others see this as well, including experts in Mr Gross's fund.


So, in my mind, the market is saying eff you to Mr Gross, as it should. And the USD is saying the same thing too. As the Gold market is saying to gold bugs. There have been trying times; in my bull theory to the USD with its vicious pull-backs, but each time USD is cutting the heads of its detractors. Each time. And the lovely part is, we are still, very much price wise, in either the very early W3 macro for USD or late W1. If the structure holds.


Now, Since any potential scenario can be predicted by any number of people, the edge therefore, lies not in information, but in the execution and risk - reward assigned to each scenario. Which is what every single pro cares about. Let me be wrong, and still make money. And let others predict, pontificate and feel like geniuses for being right.


PS - I love this picture with "Short Squeeze". He looks like a champ. Thanks for that.

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